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If Kamala loses she should refuse to certify the results just to get the Supreme Court ruling in writing that the VPs role is purely ceremonial now when it’s in the conservative side of the courts advantage. Might be helpful IF we ever have a free election again.
Yeah it's pretty clear republicans have this in the bag thanks to propagranda and just general stupidity of the average American. I think he wins PA, GA, NC and AZ by 0.5-1.5%
I fucking hate this world
Fuck dude, that's some super doom and gloom. He's not going to win all those states...such a tiny tiny fucking chance of that happening.
Yeah it's pretty clear republicans have this in the bag thanks to propagranda and just general stupidity of the average American. I think he wins PA, GA, NC and AZ by 0.5-1.5%
I fucking hate this world
Fuck dude, that's some super doom and gloom. He's not going to win all those states...such a tiny tiny fucking chance of that happening.
Even if he just overperforms polls by 2% he wins all those states
Even if he just overperforms polls by 2% he wins all those states
Democrats have significantly over performed in virtually every race, local to federal, since Roe was overturned.
I keep saying this too, and I understand it's hard for some not to be pessimistic...But don't let these bastards get the better of you. A lot of polling data out there, especially the narrative being pushed out by mainstream media, is b.s.
If the majority of us do our part as expected, Trump will lose. It's for this very reason that he's been yelling and screaming that early voting (which hasn't even started yet) is rigged, that the election will be rigged (esp. in states like Pennsylvania, according to him), and that he is setting a scenario in which he'll lose in November. And I guarantee you he has internal polling data that shows he's behind in most of the swing states, and is indeed losing critical ground in Florida. Even his rotted brain understands that if he loses in November, he is beyond fucked. So expect for him to become more unhinged, more of a loose cannon, between now and November.
Even if he just overperforms polls by 2% he wins all those states
Democrats have significantly over performed in virtually every race, local to federal, since Roe was overturned.
I see your point and it is valid but also those were all midterms and special elections. It is well known MAGAs only show up for the Presidential elections (which is a reverse of how midterms used to go)
Last time I checked, Roe was overturned after the last presidential election. So you can't compare what happened in 2020 versus what will occur in 2024, when looking at just that one but very important issue.
Plus, abortion rights are on the ballot for key states such as Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. This will 100% help Democrats who are looking to win in these states, from top to bottom, on the ballot in November.
Last time I checked, Roe was overturned after the last presidential election. So you can't compare what happened in 2020 versus what will occur in 2024, when looking at just that one but very important issue.
Plus, abortion rights are on the ballot for key states such as Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. This will 100% help Democrats who are looking to win in these states, from top to bottom, on the ballot in November.
There are a number of x-factors that make it hard to gauge. Abortion rights helped in 2022 and special elections, but those are also far lower turnout where the impact is felt more. It's hard to tell how much it will matter in a national election, but it will help on the margins in specific states (and may help nationally). MAGA cares much more about voting for Trump than voting for other Republicans, which will help him, but he's also peaked at under 47% in both presidential elections, and likely still has that ceiling. RFK is not being included in most polls now, but will still be on the ballot in a number of key states. But also, so will Stein and West.
And who knows how pollsters may have adjusted their models to try to account for either A) being so wrong in 2016/2020 (at least nationally), or B) being (less) wrong the other way in 2018/2022.
Polls matter, but they also don't, so just keep your heads up and get people off the fence.
Here’s how I see it. Special election results are a better proxy than polling for understanding upcoming general election results.
Think about it this way. We have polling that comes from a wide variety of sources, with tiny sample sizes, with sketchy criteria etc. When it comes to special elections, yes they can be influenced by local dynamics, but we have hundreds of special elections across the country. Even in small scenarios like state house special elections, we’d still get maybe 3k-5k votes. Even though that’s small, it’s SIGNIFICANT compared to a poll sampling 750 voters over the phone. All special elections combined provide a much more accurate picture.
Here’s an ABC article showing the current over performance by democrats everywhere.
The polls in the days after the debate tonight are going to matter a lot more than the polls do right now. So save your optimisms and pessimisms until next week.
The polls in the days after the debate tonight are going to matter a lot more than the polls do right now. So save your optimisms and pessimisms until next week.
Upcoming Shows: 10/18 - Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit & Iris DeMent @ Ryman Auditorium 11/8 - Goose @ The Andrew J. Brady Center 11/13 - Bobby Weir & Wolf Bros w/ The Wolfpack & The Cincinnati Pops Orchestra @ Cincinnati Music Hall 2/14 - Alan Walker @ The Fillmore Detroit 4/15 - Ben Folds w/ The Cincinnati Pops Orchestra @ Cincinnati Music Hall
Post by abefroman1 on Sept 10, 2024 13:09:56 GMT -5
Nope, cooking risotto and meatballs with a spinach cream sauce and then meal prepping some chorizo burritos with a black bean, corn, tomatillo salsa. With headphones on.
Nope, cooking risotto and meatballs with a spinach cream sauce and then meal prepping some chorizo burritos with a black bean, corn, tomatillo salsa. With headphones on.
Nope, cooking risotto and meatballs with a spinach cream sauce and then meal prepping some chorizo burritos with a black bean, corn, tomatillo salsa. With headphones on.