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Like we ran this experiment in 2016 already. Biden wouldn't beat Trump
Fuck Biden for now, but I don’t think this is accurate (specifically that it’s the same as 2016 not who would win). He may hold similar positions to Hillary. And it’s entirely possible that some women voters and more left and liberal voters would be turned off. But don’t think for a second he won’t get a lot of white blue collar voters in the Midwest who either stayed home or voted for Trump. I read a few stories (here’s one) recently www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/story/2019/06/04/trump-campaign-2020-election-map-1352437
where the Trump campaign takes him very seriously and is trying to change some of the electoral map to compensate for the possible or even maybe likely loss of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. They would theoretically have to take New Mexico, New Hampshire and Nevada and might still need help elsewhere.
Post by Dave Maynar on Jun 7, 2019 15:55:50 GMT -5
I love electability arguments considering the opponent in all of them right now is a guy who initially got written off by a ton of people including those in his party as unelectable.
Post by SuckstobeaVol on Jun 7, 2019 15:57:31 GMT -5
I usually vote Republican, but never make up my mind until Election Day. If I were to vote for any Democrat, it’d be Bernie because he seems to be more honest than the rest of them. That’s just my two cents
I love electability arguments considering the opponent in all of them right now is a guy who initially got written off by a ton of people including those in his party as unelectable.
I think it’s a given that while he and Hillary share much of the same base, it’s not 100%.
Joe Biden is so electable he’s already lost the Democratic nomination twice!
I don’t think anyone* is making the argument he’s electable. Todd made an argument that he wasn’t because we’ve seen exactly this before. I’m sure that point wasn’t lost on Dave who then posted how he has an issue with electability arguments which he waited until after my post to make. All I said was that Hillary does not necessarily equal Biden. We obviously don’t know how every vote will go, but the Trump campaign is considering alternative paths to 270.
Then again I didn’t think The Dragon is Coming was serious. Idk
Post by piggy pablo on Jun 7, 2019 16:58:08 GMT -5
A vote for Biden, particularly one based on electability, which has racial sexist, and right-wing biases baked in, is a vote for shifting the Democratic party right in response to the Republicans' move right.
It's also a vote against all of the popular stances that Bernie and Warren, and other candidates who have adopted them since 2016, have taken: healthcare push, higher minimum wage, free college, marijuana legalization, etc. All of these poll at 60+%. You vote for Biden and you're voting for a candidate who simply thinks he knows better than the public and who will fail to inspire people.
We need to stop thinking we need to convert any of Trump's base. We aren't. There is such a negligible amount of Trump voters who will ever change their minds about him, meaning that path is absolutely null and void if Dem's wanna win. Getting the votes of young people and progressives is how we win, the midterms proved that.
9.2% of Obama voters voted for Trump. That's not negligible. It's enough to swing an election in the electoral college.
I don't think Biden is the savior he thinks he is, though, if he's not offering any real change and is simply the "Beat Trump" candidate.
I don't think your first sentence disproves my assertion, the progressive under 30 vote is a larger base than the number of people who are going to switch their Trump votes, we just have to focus on getting that under 30 group motivated.
9.2% of Obama voters voted for Trump. That's not negligible. It's enough to swing an election in the electoral college.
I don't think Biden is the savior he thinks he is, though, if he's not offering any real change and is simply the "Beat Trump" candidate.
I don't think your first sentence disproves my assertion, the progressive under 30 vote is a larger base than the number of people who are going to switch their Trump votes, we just have to focus on getting that under 30 group motivated.
I agree that it should be the focus and that expanding and motivating a new voter base is a quality I look for in a candidate.
I guess I mostly just want to be careful about writing off every Trump voter. His base and the people who voted for him are different groups, and some of those people who voted for him are reachable with an inspiring platform.
I don't think your first sentence disproves my assertion, the progressive under 30 vote is a larger base than the number of people who are going to switch their Trump votes, we just have to focus on getting that under 30 group motivated.
I agree that it should be the focus and that expanding and motivating a new voter base is the quality I look for in a candidate.
I guess I mostly just want to be careful about writing off every Trump voter. His base and the people who voted for him are different groups, and some of those people who voted for him are reachable with an inspiring platform.
My feeling is that people who voted for Trump because they hated Hillary will not vote for Biden either, as he's from the same mold. I feel like people with Trumpgret are actually more likely to favor the progressive policies like Medicare for All, than the same policies they rejected the first time.
I agree that it should be the focus and that expanding and motivating a new voter base is the quality I look for in a candidate.
I guess I mostly just want to be careful about writing off every Trump voter. His base and the people who voted for him are different groups, and some of those people who voted for him are reachable with an inspiring platform.
My feeling is that people who voted for Trump because they hated Hillary will not vote for Biden either, as he's from the same mold. I feel like people with Trumpgret are actually more likely to favor the progressive policies like Medicare for All, than the same policies they rejected the first time.
I agree that it should be the focus and that expanding and motivating a new voter base is the quality I look for in a candidate.
I guess I mostly just want to be careful about writing off every Trump voter. His base and the people who voted for him are different groups, and some of those people who voted for him are reachable with an inspiring platform.
My feeling is that people who voted for Trump because they hated Hillary will not vote for Biden either, as he's from the same mold. I feel like people with Trumpgret are actually more likely to favor the progressive policies like Medicare for All, than the same policies they rejected the first time.
Also, as we've discussed, there were enough Obama voters that stayed home in 2016 to make the difference in places like Michigan. Work on getting them back along with building the base by attracting the youth and non-voters.
Biden isn't going to do any of that. Just look at him right now. They are keeping him away from the public like they are afraid of him fucking up. How is this behavior going to inspire anyone?
And somehow he's still managed to fuck up several times lol.
It's really such a bad campaign already. They're clearly throwing out whatever they think people want to hear. Dude doesn't believe in shit besides his right to rule over us.
Him or his staff have changed positions on the Hyde amendment 3 times in the last couple months.
Though my preference right now is Warren, one big thing that Bernie has going for him is that he comes across as an outsider, which is a quality that I think appealed to a great number of people last election, and certainly contributed to a number of votes that went to Trump. I agree with Katy that it's better strategy to go after newer voters than try to convince other voters to change - it's easier to give someone a push than convince them to change course - but I think Bernie has appeal to both groups.
Anyway, I voted Warren. I'd love to see next month's poll be multiple choice though.
I'm going to put one up tomorrow (I'm on vacation and don't feel like pulling out my laptop tonight) that will allow us to establish our debate stage of 20 candidates. I think you'll be allowed to vote for up to 29, since right now you could contribute money to all of them to help qualify.
Anyway, I voted Warren. I'd love to see next month's poll be multiple choice though.
I'm going to put one up tomorrow (I'm on vacation and don't feel like pulling out my laptop tonight) that will allow us to establish our debate stage of 20 candidates. I think you'll be allowed to vote for up to 29, since right now you could contribute money to all of them to help qualify.
Where y@ on vacation? I was supposed to be in Pensacola but the sun worshiper I was going with said it was going to be too rainy. If I can get 9 hours of sun and 4 hours of clouds and rain, I can work around that. But that’s me. So vacation starts Wednesday driving up to Manchester.
Post by F me, I quit America on Jun 8, 2019 11:25:34 GMT -5
I'm the Tim Ryan voter here. He's been my rep and I've been proud to vote for him several times. I like that he's pro union, wants a public healthcare option without killing private insurance, talks a lot about education, and is a very no-nonsense type of guy.
He stopped in at my previous employer and didn't mind answering a couple questions at length even though there was no media presence and I was the only one who recognized him, which was fun for me. He's definitely not a contender yet of course, but he's my preferred option.
My heart's with Bernie on healthcare and other things but I have my doubts about his electability. I've always liked Biden and think having a foreign policy wonk and someone with a history of cooperation and compromise in the oval office is desirable, but it feels like his time has passed. I'll almost certainly vote for whomever has the (D) next to his or her name, due to the opposition.
We need to stop thinking we need to convert any of Trump's base. We aren't. There is such a negligible amount of Trump voters who will ever change their minds about him, meaning that path is absolutely null and void if Dem's wanna win. Getting the votes of young people and progressives is how we win, the midterms proved that.
I will keep repeating this until it resonates.
I'd love to argue against what you say about converting Trump voters, but you're spot on. If all of the blatant lying, childish name calling, reckless impulsiveness, and utter lack of decorum hasn't turned them off already, I doubt anything a Democrat says can convince them.
I work around a lot of young adults, and the vast majority of them are completely uninformed, and mostly uninterested in voting. I try to encourage them to learn and talk about this stuff, without crossing a line because I'm their boss. Those are the potential voters we need to care about their country.
I'd love to argue against what you say about converting Trump voters, but you're spot on. If all of the blatant lying, childish name calling, reckless impulsiveness, and utter lack of decorum hasn't turned them off already, I doubt anything a Democrat says can convince them.
I work around a lot of young adults, and the vast majority of them are completely uninformed, and mostly uninterested in voting. I try to encourage them to learn and talk about this stuff, without crossing a line because I'm their boss. Those are the potential voters we need to care about their country.
My boss sent out a list of judges he endorsed. They're doing it, Dems not doing shit like that because of ethics or whatever isn't a level field. I don't think there's anything unethical about sharing your beliefs so long as you don't hold it against people.
I'd love to argue against what you say about converting Trump voters, but you're spot on. If all of the blatant lying, childish name calling, reckless impulsiveness, and utter lack of decorum hasn't turned them off already, I doubt anything a Democrat says can convince them.
I work around a lot of young adults, and the vast majority of them are completely uninformed, and mostly uninterested in voting. I try to encourage them to learn and talk about this stuff, without crossing a line because I'm their boss. Those are the potential voters we need to care about their country.
Katy is right on this, but there is a distinction between his base (and white republicans in general) and everyone else who just voted for him for whatever reason. I’m sure there is some level of buyers remorse even if it’s only 2-3% of the votes he got. Stupid is essentially locked into the base 100%. I also agree that motivating younger voters will be critical, but I think you look for any votes you can get and particularly any you can siphon off.
I have to throw it up for Mayor Pete appearing on Desus and Mero and going uptown and drinking some shit out of a brown paper bag. His expression as to wtf he just chugged was almost worth a vote.
