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Katy is right on this, but there is a distinction between his base (and white republicans in general) and everyone else who just voted for him for whatever reason. I’m sure there is some level of buyers remorse even if it’s only 2-3% of the votes he got. Stupid is essentially locked into the base 100%. I also agree that motivating younger voters will be critical, but I think you look for any votes you can get and particularly any you can siphon off.
I mean, yeah. HRC got millions more votes than 45 despite being a completely toxic brand to almost any Republicans (and a good deal of Independents and Democrats) that were alive in the 90's - and a bunch of her Senate and SoS goodwill got destroyed by the Comey letter at the eleventh hour. Her votes were just not the "right" votes.
So there is a possibility that a different candidate could siphon off some of 45's support. I agree that the more reliable route, however, is holding onto her supporters and driving turnout from those who stayed away in the Rust Belt (as well as voters who have since come of age).
(I also think that Pence helped his ticket 1000x times more than Kaine did his.)
It’s been slow, but Castro’s campaign has been progressing to the point where he’s consistently polling Top 10 at least. My hope is that he shines in the summer debates - which I know he’s capable of doing - but we’ll see. Few candidates have been as solid as far as actually mapping out full-on plans beyond a basic platform. Issue is he won’t even make the cut for the later debates if he can’t gather in more donors soon. My dream ticket would definitely be he & Warren, though realistically it’d be the latter at the top of the ticket.
As far as “electability”, I really don’t care for that discussion given how things unfolded in 2016. Biden’s probably the only (major) candidate who, if he were the nominee, would make me legitimately contemplate not voting. I’d almost definitely suck it up at the end of the day, but yeah.
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It’s been slow, but Castro’s campaign has been progressing to the point where he’s consistently polling Top 10 at least. My hope is that he shines in the summer debates - which I know he’s capable of doing - but we’ll see. Few candidates have been as solid as far as actually mapping out full-on plans beyond a basic platform. Issue is he won’t even make the cut for the later debates if he can’t gather in more donors soon. My dream ticket would definitely be he & Warren, though realistically it’d be the latter at the top of the ticket.
As far as “electability”, I really don’t care for that discussion given how things unfolded in 2016. Biden’s probably the only (major) candidate who, if he were the nominee, would make me legitimately contemplate not voting. I’d almost definitely suck it up at the end of the day, but yeah.
Sweet! I'm a Castro fan and I think he's in my top 3. I'd love him as a VP candidate, maybe put Texas in play.
I didn’t go through 15 years of not being a citizen just to have my first vote be for Joe fucking Biden.
Don't think of it as a vote for Biden. Think of it as a vote against Donald Trump and Mike Pence. It's easier to get excited for that.
Just as a side point, it seems like a lot of the activist and progressive side of the Democratic Party is almost dead set against him. He should get a lot of delegates to be sure. But I’m not certain he can win the nomination, or it may take a compromise/brokered convention for him to get it. If so he’s going to have to have a much more policy progressive VP and you’d think it would almost have to be either a woman, Latino, African American or gay/lesbian vp.
Don't think of it as a vote for Biden. Think of it as a vote against Donald Trump and Mike Pence. It's easier to get excited for that.
Just as a side point, it seems like a lot of the activist and progressive side of the Democratic Party is almost dead set against him. He should get a lot of delegates to be sure. But I’m not certain he can win the nomination, or it may take a compromise/brokered convention for him to get it. If so he’s going to have to have a much more policy progressive VP and you’d think it would almost have to be either a woman, Latino, African American or gay/lesbian vp.
The longer there's a giant field of candidates, the more delegates a front runner can pick up with only 30% of the votes. Huge advantage for Biden.
It’s been slow, but Castro’s campaign has been progressing to the point where he’s consistently polling Top 10 at least. My hope is that he shines in the summer debates - which I know he’s capable of doing - but we’ll see. Few candidates have been as solid as far as actually mapping out full-on plans beyond a basic platform. Issue is he won’t even make the cut for the later debates if he can’t gather in more donors soon. My dream ticket would definitely be he & Warren, though realistically it’d be the latter at the top of the ticket.
As far as “electability”, I really don’t care for that discussion given how things unfolded in 2016. Biden’s probably the only (major) candidate who, if he were the nominee, would make me legitimately contemplate not voting. I’d almost definitely suck it up at the end of the day, but yeah.
Sweet! I'm a Castro fan and I think he's in my top 3. I'd love him as a VP candidate, maybe put Texas in play.
I'm coming around more to him, but he should have run for a Texas office in 2018 imo. Him and Beto are just splitting support right now, and having another good candidate running for a Texas office would have been huge.
Just as a side point, it seems like a lot of the activist and progressive side of the Democratic Party is almost dead set against him. He should get a lot of delegates to be sure. But I’m not certain he can win the nomination, or it may take a compromise/brokered convention for him to get it. If so he’s going to have to have a much more policy progressive VP and you’d think it would almost have to be either a woman, Latino, African American or gay/lesbian vp.
The longer there's a giant field of candidates, the more delegates a front runner can pick up with only 30% of the votes. Huge advantage for Biden.
(To be clear, I am NOT advocating for him.)
Word. I know you aren’t. That early advantage is big with this many candidates as well as the gap between he and Bernie and the very few others polling worth a shit. Debates begin this month, but votes don’t start until about 7 3/4 months. So there is still a lot of time for things to happen.
Post by piggy pablo on Jun 8, 2019 22:49:08 GMT -5
A lot of Biden voters' second choice is Bernie, and vice versa, fwiw.
But yes, tons of time to go. Warren is positioned well. Harris seems like she will be good in debates, as she is good in committee hearings. Different format, but she is going to be able to go on the offensive.
But like, at this time in 1991, Clinton was maybe closer to the Delaneys of the race than the Buttigiegs. Or at least he would have been a couple months ago.
My conspiratorial side worries that there are so many people in the race because the DNC wants to encourage the scenario yall are discussing to help Biden achieve the nom.
Once a few people miss the first debate, I should hope some of them start dropping out. As it stands now, it's pretty ridiculous.
Sweet! I'm a Castro fan and I think he's in my top 3. I'd love him as a VP candidate, maybe put Texas in play.
I'm coming around more to him, but he should have run for a Texas office in 2018 imo. Him and Beto are just splitting support right now, and having another good candidate running for a Texas office would have been huge.
I will say it’s kind of a bummer that none of the bigger-name politicians in TX have stepped into the next senate conversation. Even Joaquín Castro has said he has no intention of running. But idk, I think Castro’s as ready as anyone. Mayor of a major city, member of Obama’s candidate, and as you said was considered for VP on HRC’s ticket. & like I noted initially, he’s quickly come out as one of the strongest candidates as far as establishing detailed policy. Only thing he really lacks is the momentum of Beto & others.
Bonnaroo '15/'16/'17/'18/'19 - ACL '13/'14/'15/'17/'18 - Fun Fun Fun '14 - SXSW '13/'14/'15 - FPSF '16
2019 Shows: 4/30 - Vampire Weekend 6/28 - Father John Misty & Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit 9/6 - Cardi B w/ Teyana Taylor 9/28 - Vulfpeck w/ The Fearless Flyers
