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Post by piggy pablo on Aug 4, 2019 21:19:10 GMT -5
Ok so yall have kept your opinions close to the vest and I suppose I will do the same. It would probably be too easy for Mafia to manipulate and take advantage of what I say if I'm the only one.
Ok so yall have kept your opinions close to the vest and I suppose I will do the same. It would probably be too easy for Mafia to manipulate and take advantage of what I say if I'm the only one.
Good luck, Town. I really hope we get this W.
My vote is locked.
I'm game to discuss. I'll defer to you if you want me to reveal my suspects or keep quiet
Post by piggy pablo on Aug 4, 2019 22:00:53 GMT -5
Welp.
I was mainly thinking Jaz, too.
He was also, like Todd and Kanye, on Jortles at the end of Day 1, and getting all three Mafia on one player is Jaz's "thing". He has barely been active in the game, which I think is a little out of character for him as one of the most veteran players in this game with two newbies. Then there's the distancing stuff that you mentioned. Todd and Kanye have been playing a distancing strategy, so it's reasonable that Jaz is also engaged in such a strategy.
Ftr I only tried getting all three mafia on one side once, and it was seen through then so I wouldn't try it again. It's not my thing.
Also, it would not make sense in a Jaz/Kanye/Todd to for me to needlessly put Todd into a one on one runoff, and then have Kanye vote for Todd. It would have made more sense for me to stay on Dan or switch to Carini than vote for a teammate and force ourselves to make a save switch or vote off our own.
But since we know that Kanye DID vote for Todd right out the gate this round, we have to ask what their strategy was at that point. Either someone would have to switch off Todd, they'd vote him out, or they still had a mafia left to vote, which would be Crool.
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I feel like we've (hopefully) reached peak "Town needs to talk or else they're fucked". Notice how comfortable Mafia are with clamming up. Todd's barely said anything all game, and neither Todd nor Kanye put up much of a fight once I revealed. Reason being that silence benefits Mafia. I can understand being quiet right now, but we could have used more discussion on D1 and D2. I hope this changes going forward in this game.
That's probably all for me, unless Mafia tries something and doesn't whack me. I sorta doubt it, because they've done nothing before that to discredit me, so refusing to whack me really only gives me one more guess.
piggy pablo I think the fact that Kanye and Todd all but conceded upon means they think (or thought if we are right on Jaz) the 3rd is very well hidden.
Ftr I only tried getting all three mafia on one side once, and it was seen through then so I wouldn't try it again. It's not my thing.
Also, it would not make sense in a Jaz/Kanye/Todd to for me to needlessly put Todd into a one on one runoff, and then have Kanye vote for Todd. It would have made more sense for me to stay on Dan or switch to Carini than vote for a teammate and force ourselves to make a save switch or vote off our own.
But since we know that Kanye DID vote for Todd right out the gate this round, we have to ask what their strategy was at that point. Either someone would have to switch off Todd, they'd vote him out, or they still had a mafia left to vote, which would be Crool.
You are right, it doesn't make sense to do what you did if you are the 3rd but it would have worked out very well if Pablo didn't reveal. in this game if you always do the predictable as mafia you will get found so you have to try shit, you and Kanye definitely fit the category of willing to try shit. I'm not set on you, but you are my top suspect by a decent margin
Maybe. But even without a direct connection between one of them and a third, Town has a better than 50/50 chance of winning now even if all remaining votes were random.
It's debatable as a strategy whether Mafia should make a hard play against a reveal, but it goes to show the less we talk, the less we expect everyone to talk, the more it benefits Mafia. They know that.
However, specifically with Crool in the game as a newbie, it's interesting they haven't really done anything to try to confuse him.
I feel like we've (hopefully) reached peak "Town needs to talk or else they're fucked". Notice how comfortable Mafia are with clamming up. Todd's barely said anything all game, and neither Todd nor Kanye put up much of a fight once I revealed. Reason being that silence benefits Mafia. I can understand being quiet right now, but we could have used more discussion on D1 and D2. I hope this changes going forward in this game.
That's probably all for me, unless Mafia tries something and doesn't whack me. I sorta doubt it, because they've done nothing before that to discredit me, so refusing to whack me really only gives me one more guess.
Not to take anything away from you, and good job nailing that first guess(not an easy task), but I felt like something was too easy about the Todd situation even before you came forward. As I said earlier, it seemed like it was broadcasted. Like mafia was giving up on him. Maybe it was just Kanye voting to distance but I'm not so sure the 3rd mafia planned to do anything in that situation either.
It's my birthday so I've been running around with folks most of today. I'm going to look over the voting and see if anything sticks out.
My bad. That's not right. If votes and lynches were randomized, Town would have a 46.63% probability of winning. Mafia actually has the 50+% chance of winning. Luckily for Town, votes won't be random.
I feel like we've (hopefully) reached peak "Town needs to talk or else they're fucked". Notice how comfortable Mafia are with clamming up. Todd's barely said anything all game, and neither Todd nor Kanye put up much of a fight once I revealed. Reason being that silence benefits Mafia. I can understand being quiet right now, but we could have used more discussion on D1 and D2. I hope this changes going forward in this game.
That's probably all for me, unless Mafia tries something and doesn't whack me. I sorta doubt it, because they've done nothing before that to discredit me, so refusing to whack me really only gives me one more guess.
Not to take anything away from you, and good job nailing that first guess(not an easy task), but I felt like something was too easy about the Todd situation even before you came forward. As I said earlier, it seemed like it was broadcasted. Like mafia was giving up on him. Maybe it was just Kanye voting to distance but I'm not so sure the 3rd mafia planned to do anything in that situation either.
It's my birthday so I've been running around with folks most of today. I'm going to look over the voting and see if anything sticks out.
They probably did give up on him, and it's understandable why. Now, if you think they gave up on him to sell another player as Town, that's one thing, but I think what made Todd such an easy target for Town and someone who read as Mafia that Mafia wanted to give up was, for the most part, his silence, both his literal silence and his lack of contribution when he did speak. So this really just goes to my point that the expectation that people get a little more chatty would be to Town's benefit. I mean, that's nothing new. People say it every game. But it's wildly evident in this situation.
I'm sort of confused by what you mean by "too easy". I mean, yeah, Todd was pretty clearly Mafia, so in that sense it was too easy. I said as much in my reveal.
I'm sort of confused by what you mean by "too easy". I mean, yeah, Todd was pretty clearly Mafia, so in that sense it was too easy. I said as much in my reveal.
I think I've made it pretty clear. I think mafia knew he was probably a goner and the strategy might have been to play against that. Kanye sure did it quick enough. So the question becomes if the 3rd was also going along with that or did they actually plan for the third to make some move to try and save him. The way the round went makes me think that wasn't the case.
That's all. Pretty simple.
I'm not saying this is deep insight. Just that I'm leery of thinking there's much straightforward info on the third once Todd started cracking in round 2.
So you think the third also was already voting for Todd at the point of my reveal?
I think that's always a possibility. It's something I've done when I've felt the town was onto someone. Or it could have been someone made an early distancing vote and then got stuck when the tables turned.
But actually, no. I'm not sure it's even that specific. Dan and Carini both called him out and they weren't voting for him.
I'm simply reiterating what my gut felt at the time. And as I've already said, Kanye voting against him might explain that.
Sorry, I'm a little fucked up but trying to play the game while I still can.
No, you're fine. I have a hard time explaining abstract thoughts about this game sometimes.
I'm mostly just throwing it out there again because I noticed Jaz(I think) mention mafia strategy and maybe the third trying to save Todd.... in an event where the inspector came forward. I was just trying to explain why I think it's possible that was never going to be the case.
That's partly informed by not thinking Crool is mafia because he pushed Kanye forward in one of the Day 1 runoffs when he didn't have to.
I guessed Kanye partly on a vibe so when I revealed I was hoping I could provide enough objective reasoning for guessing him that it rang true to the rest of Town, and that might be why I was expecting more pushback, as well.
Any improvement I've made in playing this game has been about improving my intuition rather than understanding how the objective facts have played out, because the objective facts and what they mean shift from game to game. In this game I considered distancing an indicator of collusion, whereas in many games it's intended to be an indicator of distance.
