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Covid-19 vaccinations could start as early as November or December, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's leading infectious disease expert, said Friday.
Fauci's comments come as the US passed 7 million confirmed cases of Covid-19, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. More than 203,000 people have died. Despite the prediction, Fauci says it could still be a while until everything returns to pre-Covid normalcy.
"By the time you get enough people vaccinated so that you can feel you've had an impact enough on the outbreak, so that you can start thinking about maybe getting a little bit more towards normality, that very likely, as I and others have said, will be maybe the third quarter or so of 2021. Maybe even into the fourth quarter," Fauci told Dr. Howard Bauchner, the editor-in-chief of the Journal of the American Medical Association, in an online conversation.
Fauci noted that with the different vaccines being developed, the US could potentially have 700 million doses by April 2021, but the availability of vaccines is not the only factor at play. "In our society, it likely will be that many people will not want to get the vaccine right away and want to wait to see what happens with the first 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 million people," he said.
This presents a situation that is unique in the history of the human race, affected by so many variables: scientific, political, social, psychological. Assume the fact pattern above is correct, and anybody can get a vaccine come April 2021. Will we then have a full on outdoor music festival in June? If so, will Bonnaroo try to have any kinds of requirements, like proof of vaccination? It seems unlikely that Tennessee would stop it from happening, so the decision would be on the shoulders of Live Nation. Certainly they want the money, but would it be worth the potential bad press, or will bad press not be a problem when people can get a vaccine?
Then even if it happens, will people buy tickets? You could make an argument that people will still be cautious and not eager to jump back into a crowded setting, or an argument that people after being pent up for so long, especially younger people, will be super eager to be at a festival again.
At what point will LiveNation legitimately be in trouble of becoming extinct? If it is their decision, I bet they'd go full throttle.
according to their 10Q as of 6/30/2020 they've got about $3.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents on hand as of 6/30/20. They had direct operating expenses of about $662 million from April-June 2020.
so doing a scribbling on a napkin projection, the next year would erode their cash something like the below:
So they'll still have half a billion in the bank but I'm sure they will be eager to push forward. But the above projection may be more dire then reality, it's entirely possible they can start having events outside of the US in countries handling COVID-19 better than the US, which should bring in some revenue.
they also had about a $1.6 billion dollar increase in their long-term debt balance from December 2019 to June 2020, so they've definitely taken on some new debt. Per the notes to the financials they still have access to approximately $1 billion in undrawn debt capacity, so they could draw further debt if needed, which is a good position to be in. They'll also have cash coming in from ticket sales right now for shows in 2021.
All that to say that I think they could push on through Summer 2021 without live events in the United States if they needed to, but certainly they wouldn't want to.
EDIT: obviously this is a super simplified look at their financials, there are no doubt complexities in their financial situation that could swing either way that I am unaware of.
Post by Teddy Flair on Sept 29, 2020 11:58:53 GMT -5
A message from Bonnaroo:
We want to thank you for being a loyal Bonnaroovian, and we appreciate your patience as we navigate the best options to ensure we can be together on the Farm in 2021.
The dates we originally announced for Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2021 have changed. Bonnaroo will now take place on September 2-5, 2021. Information on lineup, camping and accommodations will be available at a later date.
If you want to keep your spot on the farm locked in for Labor Day weekend, the good news is that you don’t need to do anything. However, refunds will be available if you cannot attend.
5.5/four tet, daphni b2b floating points, avalon emerson 5.12/neil young 5.19/mannequin pussy 5.21/serpentwithfeet 5.25/hozier 6.12-16/bonnaroo 6.28/goose 6.29/goose 9.17/the national + the war on drugs 9.23/sigur ros 9.27-29/making time 10.17/air
My guess is that acts are going to try and swing through europe in the summer then come to North America for the fall. We shall see if that works, I tend to think that even Europe cant safely have events until there is a vaccine
This is gonna suck for anyone in school during that time. I think my gfs finals are around that week. Hopefully not tho she hasn’t gotten her 2021 dates yet tho. Also Phish is playing Labor Day in Colorado, so sadly I think this means no Oysterhead. But hopefully this means Tool will be back on the bill.
T00L doesn't tour in September. This discussion has been beaten to death in the Riot Fest thread.
oh damn I haven’t been there in awhile. I’ll hope for a one off show or something I guess. But that bums me out more if there no Tool or Oysterhead, someone please let me know at least if Primus is still possible
The confusingly named but well reviewed LX Hotel Powered by ACW Circle in Manchester is available for $140/night during the new Roo dates. Hop on quickly if you want a hotel room right by the farm. free cancellation.
Post by TRANTER INDUSTRIES on Sept 29, 2020 13:15:31 GMT -5
I know Thom and Ed said they wanted to finish their solo stuff but who knows if they’re still feeling it. Possible they have some music they wanna get out and play. It’s Radiohead season boys!