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Danbob was found dead overnight in Rooville. While he's being tested for Covid-19, sources say his death may not have been from the virus but rather a Mafia attack.
Post by Silver Surfer on Apr 5, 2020 21:12:47 GMT -5
alright I grabbed my laptop, Ill go through and compile what I see as important. Before doing any looking, I am viewing this whack as a misdirection on hunch and hunch alone. But let's see
Reread your post, you said first page. If you're saying the whack points to me because he started the game voting for me as his opening vote of the game, that's one of the most shallow interpretations of a whack I've ever seen.
Reread your post, you said first page. If you're saying the whack points to me because he started the game voting for me as his opening vote of the game, that's one of the most shallow interpretations of a whack I've ever seen.
He's literally done that exact thing to you before lol
This is the end of D1 breakdown with the two dead eliminated. Assuming Maddog was town, that means it's like that one of Carini/Pablo/Rummy/me are mafia. I am going to do a re-read focused on Carini/Pablo/Rummy.
Right on the first page I can already see Dan pointing toward Jaz and Manders.
How so? Danbob had a choice between myself and Maddog and voted for Maddog.
If he was Inspector, this could have been cover, especially for what he did earlier.
Do you think an Inspector with your name would pick you for the kill? Especially after opening the game on you? That's really where you want to go with this?
If you want to talk "shallow" arguments, I'd say this one qualifies.
lol what the blazes. I was literally just about to switch to Jaz just so we can see a real Manders vote. Do your thing Kanye. I hope this is some enlightening chess move that we will all be praising you for come day two.
It’s not. It’s just classic townie mischief or mafia trying to make it look like that.
He's potentially calling me mafia here
BELGIAN MANDERS: *outside of the whole manders calling out dan and such
I usually feel like a lot of action near the end of D1 means we have some Mafia in the equation somewhere. While I wouldn't say I'm very suspicious of Maddog, I'm feeling more confident about Jaz and Carini being Town, so I'm not going to let my vote aid in that being the final duo.
Yep, one of the only things I feel fairly strongly about (read: not certain) is that Dan & Jaz are NOT mafia together. Not gonna type it all out again because Potent did a great job summarizing their moves that indicate towards the unlikelihood of them being in mafia cahoots together, but just wanted to cite that I definitely agree.
ARE YOU MAFIA WITH JAZ AND THATS HOW YOU KNOW??????????
Post by Silver Surfer on Apr 5, 2020 22:16:29 GMT -5
I think Manders is probably most implicated, but I also think he would've been most easily framed. I think Jaz is also super implicated, but I feel like dan would've been more careful if he was actually inspector with Jaz name. I am implicated because one of my vote switches was "interesting." Rummy was "suspicious" of dan as well.
Post by piggy pablo on Apr 5, 2020 22:36:29 GMT -5
I don't think Mafia's first priority is almost ever to use a whack to misdirect. Not this early. I think they're gonna earnestly try to kill the Inspector. Their odds of winning skyrocket if they get that right.
Post by Silver Surfer on Apr 5, 2020 22:56:30 GMT -5
Soooooooo anyway, here's what I was trying to do
Here is where everyone stood at the beginning of round 3, before my switching.
Maddog - 3 (Pablo, Teddy, Rummy)
Carini - 3 (Jaz, Jortles, Danbob)
Jaz - 3 (Carini, Silver, Maddog)
Left to Vote: Potent, Manders
This was interesting because these were two of the last 4 to vote in round 1 as well, which we typically know as a group that usually has at least 1 mafia in it. (Dan and Teddy were the other 2) It is totally curious to me that 2 out of the last 4 also got to revote so I was skeptical.
So I wanted to see what would happen if I switched things around, and not give them the power of their revote. I also was curious as to how mafia was split in the middle of Day 1. We know they are usually 2-1 and the end of day 1, but what about now? Also how would mafia react, and would they end up with the same split? (part of this was to figure out what to do in future games so Im sorry to test it out here, but I think it could prove viable info-especially in the future)
So here's where I start do kanye stuff
I switched from Jaz to Carini, Potent voted for Maddog. I took my vote off carini to null, then Potent went to Jaz. So then I went to maddog. Manders then voted carini. Pablo switched off of Maddog to Jaz. Jortles switched off Carini to Maddog. Manders tried to execute Maddog by switching off of Carini. Rummy switched from Maddog to Jaz. Jaz went to Maddog. Which brought us to the round 4 runoff between Jaz and Maddog.
Danbob voted maddog at the start, I tried to switch off and get other people to move around but no one would budge and I went back. Here's where we ended.
1) Teddy stayed on maddog the entire way through 2)Carini voted maddog out of the gate, switched to Jaz and remained the whole time. 3) Both Pablo and Rummy switched off of Maddog and remained on Jaz 4)Potent set himself up for a revote, after already voting late day 1. He also was mad that I switched my vote before he could place his revote-stating he wanted to vote for jaz and felt I had taken that opportunity. The second I switched off of carini, he switched onto Jaz-and stayed there
Post by Silver Surfer on Apr 5, 2020 23:16:59 GMT -5
I think a combination of my switching and manders' attempt to force lynch maddog made it possible for mafia to abandon the common 2-1 split. Not saying the definitely went 3-0 but I think it's highly likely
This is the end of D1 breakdown with the two dead eliminated. Assuming Maddog was town, that means it's like that one of Carini/Pablo/Rummy/me are mafia. I am going to do a re-read focused on Carini/Pablo/Rummy.
Anyone have a rough idea of the statistics re: how often a mafia person is lynched D1? I know it has been brought up this game already that a recent-ish game involved that happening, but I also know it isn't particularly common. If the mafia team can avoid one of their own from being lynched D1 without casting too much suspicion upon their game play, they generally will.
Just curious if anyone has crunched those numbers/analyzed that pattern recently, from prior games?
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Appreciation to Silver Surfer for pulling those quotes. Just gave them all a once-over but will return tomorrow to take a deeper look.
As for whether the whack feels like misdirection or not: i agree with Pablo that I think Mafia *tend* to be genuinely gunning towards killing off the Inspector here at the beginning rather than using their Night One kill for misdirection. But as we know in Mafia, "tend to" doesn't mean "therefore it is so." If they were offing Danbob for intentional misdirection, it doesn't even seem particularly clear who they'd be trying to steer suspicion towards. From Kanye's pulled quotes, looks like could be Jaz or Manders? But idk if either stands out over the other.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Yep, one of the only things I feel fairly strongly about (read: not certain) is that Dan & Jaz are NOT mafia together. Not gonna type it all out again because Potent did a great job summarizing their moves that indicate towards the unlikelihood of them being in mafia cahoots together, but just wanted to cite that I definitely agree.
ARE YOU MAFIA WITH JAZ AND THATS HOW YOU KNOW??????????
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
