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This is the end of D1 breakdown with the two dead eliminated. Assuming Maddog was town, that means it's like that one of Carini/Pablo/Rummy/me are mafia. I am going to do a re-read focused on Carini/Pablo/Rummy.
Anyone have a rough idea of the statistics re: how often a mafia person is lynched D1? I know it has been brought up this game already that a recent-ish game involved that happening, but I also know it isn't particularly common. If the mafia team can avoid one of their own from being lynched D1 without casting too much suspicion upon their game play, they generally will.
Just curious if anyone has crunched those numbers/analyzed that pattern recently, from prior games?
I cannot answer your direct question, although we do have the mafia reference thread where it gives some data in a centralized place.
I wanted to expand on my comment for you since you haven't played in awhile. Generally, on D2 I (and most others) try to view the D1 lynch as a town, instead of "chasing ghosts" (as I put it earlier this game) to figure out Maddog's status. If we figure Maddog is town and he was mafia, no harm no foul. If we figure he was mafia, then we get into trouble later on, like today, debating who he was working with and whether we have 2 or 3 left.
Just for clarification - I'm not saying Maddog was town, I'm saying it's a safer assumption in a couple of ways.
This referred to my Surfer>Jaz>Carini switch *JAZ/CARINI IMPLICATION
I don't blame you for not pointing this out, but this, besides having Jaz/Carini implications, has obvious Kanye/Silver implications as well. Danbob was referring to you being the one switching, and it's just as likely he was interested in you switching as he was who was the beneficiary of the switch.
Here is where everyone stood at the beginning of round 3, before my switching.
Maddog - 3 (Pablo, Teddy, Rummy)
Carini - 3 (Jaz, Jortles, Danbob)
Jaz - 3 (Carini, Silver, Maddog)
Left to Vote: Potent, Manders
This was interesting because these were two of the last 4 to vote in round 1 as well, which we typically know as a group that usually has at least 1 mafia in it. (Dan and Teddy were the other 2) It is totally curious to me that 2 out of the last 4 also got to revote so I was skeptical.
So I wanted to see what would happen if I switched things around, and not give them the power of their revote. I also was curious as to how mafia was split in the middle of Day 1. We know they are usually 2-1 and the end of day 1, but what about now? Also how would mafia react, and would they end up with the same split? (part of this was to figure out what to do in future games so Im sorry to test it out here, but I think it could prove viable info-especially in the future)
So here's where I start do kanye stuff
I switched from Jaz to Carini, Potent voted for Maddog. I took my vote off carini to null, then Potent went to Jaz. So then I went to maddog. Manders then voted carini. Pablo switched off of Maddog to Jaz. Jortles switched off Carini to Maddog. Manders tried to execute Maddog by switching off of Carini. Rummy switched from Maddog to Jaz. Jaz went to Maddog. Which brought us to the round 4 runoff between Jaz and Maddog.
Danbob voted maddog at the start, I tried to switch off and get other people to move around but no one would budge and I went back. Here's where we ended.
1) Teddy stayed on maddog the entire way through 2)Carini voted maddog out of the gate, switched to Jaz and remained the whole time. 3) Both Pablo and Rummy switched off of Maddog and remained on Jaz 4)Potent set himself up for a revote, after already voting late day 1. He also was mad that I switched my vote before he could place his revote-stating he wanted to vote for jaz and felt I had taken that opportunity. The second I switched off of carini, he switched onto Jaz-and stayed there
I always note the last four to vote in a round, because it's not as random a grouping as just grabbing four people. I try to look at groups of 4 that make sense. I think the "last 4" theory makes sense as a non-random group of 4 to inspect. I do want to point out, though, that it does seem like it could be too heavily relied upon. The thesis behind the theory was that mafia know more information than town, and so they try to shape the runoff a certain way. It makes sense, but I think it makes less sense the more quickly that D1 initial votes happen. With the way we play, 10 of 11 initial D1 votes were made within 90 minutes of the thread going up.
I also really take umbrage with you saying that I "set (himself) up for a revote". Because we had a 5-way at the end of D1R1, we had one revote - Rummy. She voted, and then nobody moved, so I decided to move off of Danbob and onto Jortles, which took Jortles to 3 and put him in a position to advance. Other machinations happened where Jortles then fell out, along with Danbob, to get to D1R3. I really think you are stretching to say I set myself up for a revote there. That is bad logic.
Old fashioned way finding possible breadcrumbs, Ctrl+F baby!
Here are the most damaging quotes I can find, nothing super smoking gun at all. Still makes me believe that it is more than likely a misdirect.
SILVER SURFER:
This referred to my Surfer>Jaz>Carini switch *JAZ/CARINI IMPLICATION
I don't blame you for not pointing this out, but this, besides having Jaz/Carini implications, has obvious Kanye/Silver implications as well. Danbob was referring to you being the one switching, and it's just as likely he was interested in you switching as he was who was the beneficiary of the switch.
It was under the section labeled in bold SILVER SURFER
Here is where everyone stood at the beginning of round 3, before my switching.
Maddog - 3 (Pablo, Teddy, Rummy)
Carini - 3 (Jaz, Jortles, Danbob)
Jaz - 3 (Carini, Silver, Maddog)
Left to Vote: Potent, Manders
This was interesting because these were two of the last 4 to vote in round 1 as well, which we typically know as a group that usually has at least 1 mafia in it. (Dan and Teddy were the other 2) It is totally curious to me that 2 out of the last 4 also got to revote so I was skeptical.
So I wanted to see what would happen if I switched things around, and not give them the power of their revote. I also was curious as to how mafia was split in the middle of Day 1. We know they are usually 2-1 and the end of day 1, but what about now? Also how would mafia react, and would they end up with the same split? (part of this was to figure out what to do in future games so Im sorry to test it out here, but I think it could prove viable info-especially in the future)
So here's where I start do kanye stuff
I switched from Jaz to Carini, Potent voted for Maddog. I took my vote off carini to null, then Potent went to Jaz. So then I went to maddog. Manders then voted carini. Pablo switched off of Maddog to Jaz. Jortles switched off Carini to Maddog. Manders tried to execute Maddog by switching off of Carini. Rummy switched from Maddog to Jaz. Jaz went to Maddog. Which brought us to the round 4 runoff between Jaz and Maddog.
Danbob voted maddog at the start, I tried to switch off and get other people to move around but no one would budge and I went back. Here's where we ended.
1) Teddy stayed on maddog the entire way through 2)Carini voted maddog out of the gate, switched to Jaz and remained the whole time. 3) Both Pablo and Rummy switched off of Maddog and remained on Jaz 4)Potent set himself up for a revote, after already voting late day 1. He also was mad that I switched my vote before he could place his revote-stating he wanted to vote for jaz and felt I had taken that opportunity. The second I switched off of carini, he switched onto Jaz-and stayed there
I always note the last four to vote in a round, because it's not as random a grouping as just grabbing four people. I try to look at groups of 4 that make sense. I think the "last 4" theory makes sense as a non-random group of 4 to inspect. I do want to point out, though, that it does seem like it could be too heavily relied upon. The thesis behind the theory was that mafia know more information than town, and so they try to shape the runoff a certain way. It makes sense, but I think it makes less sense the more quickly that D1 initial votes happen. With the way we play, 10 of 11 initial D1 votes were made within 90 minutes of the thread going up.
I also really take umbrage with you saying that I "set (himself) up for a revote". Because we had a 5-way at the end of D1R1, we had one revote - Rummy. She voted, and then nobody moved, so I decided to move off of Danbob and onto Jortles, which took Jortles to 3 and put him in a position to advance. Other machinations happened where Jortles then fell out, along with Danbob, to get to D1R3. I really think you are stretching to say I set myself up for a revote there. That is bad logic.
Yeah I'll agree with you there, you didn't set yourself up that was bad wording.
Post by Silver Surfer on Apr 6, 2020 9:42:58 GMT -5
I think the ones I'm most cautious of rn are Potent, Pablo, Rummy, and Jaz. Id like to see at least two of those in the runoff
Pablo because he's always mafia. Also it was weird that he just immediately threw out who was implicated by the whack without quoting or anything. It was like he was trying to set up a frame
Potent because of the voting stuff and also he has seemed to forgotten how we played together as mafia once and it strikes me as weird
Rummy because Ive never played with her, but just seems like a class mafia player rn. Kind of helping, but not doing too much help.
Jaz because I think he's most implicated by the whack outside of manders and I just don't think mafia manders would whack dan. But also I think mafia jaz would do a better move too.
Post by Silver Surfer on Apr 6, 2020 9:44:17 GMT -5
Also to the notion of misdirect whacks not being the primary goal, I disagree. I have won every game I've played as mafia and I think all but one of our whacks was a misdirect whack. One of the misdirect whacks even ended up getting the inspector, although that wasn't our goal. If maddog was town, and no one seems suspicious of anyone as mafia then they might try a misdirect with the first whack. After all, inspector could also very well guess incorrectly and only have one name. Mafia also probably wouldn't mind the inspector coming out if they only knew one name. I think it's a gamble, but I think it's a really good gamble. Inspectors more than likely wont reveal unless they get two names and it is highly unlikely that inspector gets their first guess correct. Going with a misdirect buys more time and forces town to to get all 3 mafia with the last 3 days if the misdirect works, which works way more in mafia favor. Plus, it gives the potentially alive inspector more time to hint who their name is and mafia can probably make a better guess.
I think the ones I'm most cautious of rn are Potent, Pablo, Rummy, and Jaz. Id like to see at least two of those in the runoff
Pablo because he's always mafia. Also it was weird that he just immediately threw out who was implicated by the whack without quoting or anything. It was like he was trying to set up a frame
Potent because of the voting stuff and also he has seemed to forgotten how we played together as mafia once and it strikes me as weird
Rummy because Ive never played with her, but just seems like a class mafia player rn. Kind of helping, but not doing too much help.
Jaz because I think he's most implicated by the whack outside of manders and I just don't think mafia manders would whack dan. But also I think mafia jaz would do a better move too.
Honestly I would have, just because he annoyed me. But strategically that wouldn't make much sense.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Jortles could really stand to get involved a bit more. Then again, most of you could.
This read through was brutal man. Took me two hours to get through Day 1 while making notes.
Here’s where I’m at...
Carini: I have a stronger town read on him today than I did yesterday. My gut tells me that him voting for me here was a good sign for his case where he didn’t simply latch on to whatever other people were thinking. Of course, I don’t love his vote being on me and hope others don’t join him, but I like that he wasn’t simply influenced by the first few summaries on Day 2. I also like that he wasn’t one of the first people to divulge a theory on Day 2.
Manders: Can’t imagine the Mafia Chat with Manders in it right now. Mafia could do anything, but Im guessing for now that Manders is Town.
Rummy: Separate from the whack, I’m very concerned about Rummy and have been for a while. In my read-through, most people have like 10-15 bullet points of notes. Rummy has 3 and one of them just says “fluff city”. She has not cast suspicion towards anyone. Its very very safe and I almost image that back in the day when she played last it was known that mafia should blend in and be friendly to keep heat off them. I think at this point, it will take a lot for me to lose my suspicion of her.
Teddy: Obviously hard to be at all confident about how Teddy would play as Mafia or Town. I dont really have much to say here. He came out firing and it looks like the concept if runoffs made him lose his swag. Again this is probably my hardest read for now.
Jaz: His stock hasn’t improved as much as Carini’s for me since my switch yesterday where I explained that I felt better about those two as opposed to MD. The fireworks near the end yesterday. My stronger Town read on Carini makes me very suspicious that one of MD / Jaz is mafia. I don’t think the whack looks particularly great for Jaz either.
Potent: This game reeks of one where Potent is having fun causing mischief as Mafia. The whack doesn't help along my suspicion. Idk... he was switching a bunch on Day 1 and for whatever reason I just don’t like the way he smells right now. Having trouble putting my finger on it but I need to read his stuff again to try to figure out why Im suspicious of him. I think there was a time where Pablo called him on a switch where he could have voted Jaz and his reply indicated that he was very unbuttoned in that moment where he admitted to having tunnel vision. Doesn't align with his typical character imo.
Pablo: I don’t like how much Pablos thumb prints seem to be on this game. A lot of guiding the ship and a large concern for how the game should be played. He also scrapped quite a bit and ruffled feathers in a way that felt Townish. This is probably my most difficult read behind Teddy at the moment.
Kanye: At first I was loving Kanye is Town, but I’ve done a 180. I can’t shake the feeling that he’s Mafia acting like this. There is obviously no point in analyzing each specific move of his as it all clearly amounted to... nothing (?) if you look at the “conclusions” he listed above. It just looks like there wasn’t actually a real plan and he’s just trying to act like a loose canon Townie because nobody would suspect mafia would do that. Whereas to me... Manders version of going rogue feels more authentic. But maybe its because I dont know him as well.
I don’t expect my gut to align with everyone else’s, but until we have a reveal, I think with how crazy Day 1 was, gut is more valuable than looking at any of the muddy patterns.
Now to the whack...
I do think this points most directly to Manders and less strongly to Jaz, Kanye and I guess myself based on what Carini said.
I dont think this was about misdirection. There would have been much better candidates for that. I also think that if Mafia was trying to give as little info as possible, they would have whacked Rummy, because again she hasn’t provided any content.
So I think the whack indicates that one of Manders, Jaz and Kanye is Mafia unless Im missing some other bread crumbs.
Again Im currently most suspicious of Rummy, Potent, Kanye and Jaz.
I’m going to place a vote on Kanye for now, but Im planning to browse Dans posts a couple more times in case Im missing bread crumbs.
Post by Silver Surfer on Apr 6, 2020 10:05:02 GMT -5
Also it hasnt amounted to nothing yet. It caused a lot of movement that I think will be beneficial later. I want to see if the split of 2-1 remains or not. The way I was planning for it to work was to get a 3-0, which would only be possible if jaz is town
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Post by Mr.BelgianAmbers on Apr 6, 2020 10:07:37 GMT -5
Question for town people, would mafia go through the effort Jortles went through to write a detailed thought process? I like the fact he wrote his opinion about everyone, but I'm careful not reading into it too much.
Curious tho, Jortles. Clarify what you've said about me. Can't really make anything out of it: "Can’t imagine the Mafia Chat with Manders in it right now. Mafia could do anything, but Im guessing for now that Manders is Town."
Question for town people, would mafia go through the effort Jortles went through to write a detailed thought process? I like the fact he wrote his opinion about everyone, but I'm careful not reading into it too much.
Curious tho, Jortles. Clarify what you've said about me. Can't really make anything out of it: "Can’t imagine the Mafia Chat with Manders in it right now. Mafia could do anything, but Im guessing for now that Manders is Town."
Yes they would and do. In fact when I'm mafia I probably go into a lot more detail tbh
Question for town people, would mafia go through the effort Jortles went through to write a detailed thought process? I like the fact he wrote his opinion about everyone, but I'm careful not reading into it too much.
Curious tho, Jortles. Clarify what you've said about me. Can't really make anything out of it: "Can’t imagine the Mafia Chat with Manders in it right now. Mafia could do anything, but Im guessing for now that Manders is Town."
Absolutelyyyyyy. Which is why my initial reply to him was just "thx for the insults, glad to have you rejoin us." He was damn quiet through most of D1, then he comes out swinging with ALL these new (or newly expressed, anyway) gut feelings and suspicions that are laid out for us in an orderly manner.
Mafia try to steer narrative. That's one of the best ways to win, if you can steer it successfully without being too obvious that that's what you're doing.
My eye right now is on Jortles, Potent (have played with him a lot before and something is feeling slightly "off" rn in his game play for supposedly being town), and potentially Pablo.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
And as for my "fluff posts" and not giving enough clarity on my suspicions D1....yeah, because it was D1. I feel like spending 17 pages talking around "could be"/"would it be" projections when we essentially had no explicit info yet might not have ultimately served town well moving forward. hope i'm wrong, but we shall see.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Question for town people, would mafia go through the effort Jortles went through to write a detailed thought process? I like the fact he wrote his opinion about everyone, but I'm careful not reading into it too much.
Curious tho, Jortles. Clarify what you've said about me. Can't really make anything out of it: "Can’t imagine the Mafia Chat with Manders in it right now. Mafia could do anything, but Im guessing for now that Manders is Town."
Mafia would do anything to win is always the answer.
What I'm saying there is that I believe your Mafia partners would be annoyed af with you right now if you were mafia with them. I also don't see you as Mafia initiating your spat with Dan and then whacking him. It would make more sense to me if Dan started the fight with you for you to then become suspicious of him and whack him.
Obviously, nobody is off the hook including you... but right now I'm reading you as Town.
