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Since my suspicions of potent are a little more validated outside of my own hunch I think I'm gonna go potent
Kanye > Potent
Are you going to ever share this theory with us? Or are you going to just reference it Day 1 and hope we all forget about it Day 2? Or are you going to say that the split was 3-0 instead of 2-1 is your theory, which would be interesting since you raised this before we ever got to the final runoff?
How were your suspicions of me validated? By Jortles?
This is vote that is extremely fluffy with the explanation. Vote for me, I didn't have D1 votes so I should be examined, but at least provide a rationale.
Question for town people, would mafia go through the effort Jortles went through to write a detailed thought process? I like the fact he wrote his opinion about everyone, but I'm careful not reading into it too much.
Curious tho, Jortles. Clarify what you've said about me. Can't really make anything out of it: "Can’t imagine the Mafia Chat with Manders in it right now. Mafia could do anything, but Im guessing for now that Manders is Town."
Absolutelyyyyyy. Which is why my initial reply to him was just "thx for the insults, glad to have you rejoin us." He was damn quiet through most of D1, then he comes out swinging with ALL these new (or newly expressed, anyway) gut feelings and suspicions that are laid out for us in an orderly manner.
Mafia try to steer narrative. That's one of the best ways to win, if you can steer it successfully without being too obvious that that's what you're doing.
My eye right now is on Jortles, Potent (have played with him a lot before and something is feeling slightly "off" rn in his game play for supposedly being town), and potentially Pablo.
Gotta love a little reactionary suspicion. Classic.
My quiet play in day 1 included an unprovoked late round switch, my clear feelings / read on Carini, Jaz, and Maddog. My suspicion of Kanyes play and comfort with Manders. And I asked the crowd if you were always this quiet, hinting at the fact that I wasnt comfy with it.
So in my 4 fewer posts than yours through Day 1, I actually said a ton more than most people... especially yourself.
Since my suspicions of potent are a little more validated outside of my own hunch I think I'm gonna go potent
Kanye > Potent
Are you going to ever share this theory with us? Or are you going to just reference it Day 1 and hope we all forget about it Day 2? Or are you going to say that the split was 3-0 instead of 2-1 is your theory, which would be interesting since you raised this before we ever got to the final runoff?
How were your suspicions of me validated? By Jortles?
This is vote that is extremely fluffy with the explanation. Vote for me, I didn't have D1 votes so I should be examined, but at least provide a rationale.
Dude can you read? I've posted like 50 paragraphs in the past 2 pages. I've detailed my suspicions of you throughout day 1 and even a couple times in day 2. I've also elaborated why I think the whack is a misdirect. And I've explained what my theory was, and that part of it is for future games. My plan, AGAIN, was to get people to move and see how the vote split was affected. I think once we get a reveal, the switches and the splits will be interesting to see. Or not idk. It couldve been for nothing or it could not have.
If you would like to reread anything I posted, feel free to as it seems you didn't comprehend any of it and you keep refuting it incorrectly.
Also to the notion of misdirect whacks not being the primary goal, I disagree. I have won every game I've played as mafia and I think all but one of our whacks was a misdirect whack. One of the misdirect whacks even ended up getting the inspector, although that wasn't our goal. If maddog was town, and no one seems suspicious of anyone as mafia then they might try a misdirect with the first whack. After all, inspector could also very well guess incorrectly and only have one name. Mafia also probably wouldn't mind the inspector coming out if they only knew one name. I think it's a gamble, but I think it's a really good gamble. Inspectors more than likely wont reveal unless they get two names and it is highly unlikely that inspector gets their first guess correct. Going with a misdirect buys more time and forces town to to get all 3 mafia with the last 3 days if the misdirect works, which works way more in mafia favor. Plus, it gives the potentially alive inspector more time to hint who their name is and mafia can probably make a better guess.
I mean, I guess this is an opinion. I did think that we were past this discussion of "misdirect vs. inspector" for N1 whack at the beginning of every D2, but I guess I was wrong about that. And I don't mean to keep picking on Kanye.
The N1 whack is always both. It's BOTH. Mafia doesn't win often when the inspector lives to D3. It's extremely difficult to do. At the same time, if the inspector is playing well, they are hiding enough that it isn't clear who they are, and the mafia is just guessing.
A bunch of stuff you say in this post I think is flat out wrong. For example, the inspector guessing wrongly is still hugely important to the town, mostly because it confirms somebody's role.
Kanye really seems to be driving the narrative at the beginning of D2.
Post by Silver Surfer on Apr 6, 2020 10:35:16 GMT -5
potentpotables can you point to where I said an incorrect inspector guess isn't helpful? You're literally putting words in my mouth. All I said was that it is highly likely that they guess wrong. Also, for the most part, an inspector isn't going to reveal after an incorrect guess even if it confirms a townie. They will reveal when they have two mafia or if they're about to be lynched.
The fact that you keep trying to question things I've said (incorrectly) is so annoying lmao
Since you feel the need to insult my reading ability, why don't you put your "theory" that was developed before the final runoff on D1 into one post? That way I won't miss it.
The fact that you keep trying to question things I've said (incorrectly) is so annoying lmao
Since you feel the need to insult my reading ability, why don't you put your "theory" that was developed before the final runoff on D1 into one post? That way I won't miss it.
Here is where everyone stood at the beginning of round 3, before my switching.
Maddog - 3 (Pablo, Teddy, Rummy)
Carini - 3 (Jaz, Jortles, Danbob)
Jaz - 3 (Carini, Silver, Maddog)
Left to Vote: Potent, Manders
This was interesting because these were two of the last 4 to vote in round 1 as well, which we typically know as a group that usually has at least 1 mafia in it. (Dan and Teddy were the other 2) It is totally curious to me that 2 out of the last 4 also got to revote so I was skeptical.
So I wanted to see what would happen if I switched things around, and not give them the power of their revote. I also was curious as to how mafia was split in the middle of Day 1. We know they are usually 2-1 and the end of day 1, but what about now? Also how would mafia react, and would they end up with the same split? (part of this was to figure out what to do in future games so Im sorry to test it out here, but I think it could prove viable info-especially in the future)
So here's where I start do kanye stuff
I switched from Jaz to Carini, Potent voted for Maddog. I took my vote off carini to null, then Potent went to Jaz. So then I went to maddog. Manders then voted carini. Pablo switched off of Maddog to Jaz. Jortles switched off Carini to Maddog. Manders tried to execute Maddog by switching off of Carini. Rummy switched from Maddog to Jaz. Jaz went to Maddog. Which brought us to the round 4 runoff between Jaz and Maddog.
Danbob voted maddog at the start, I tried to switch off and get other people to move around but no one would budge and I went back. Here's where we ended.
1) Teddy stayed on maddog the entire way through 2)Carini voted maddog out of the gate, switched to Jaz and remained the whole time. 3) Both Pablo and Rummy switched off of Maddog and remained on Jaz 4)Potent set himself up for a revote, after already voting late day 1. He also was mad that I switched my vote before he could place his revote-stating he wanted to vote for jaz and felt I had taken that opportunity. The second I switched off of carini, he switched onto Jaz-and stayed there
We tend to harp on the idea that we probably won't a Mafia in the first round, but between Maddog being significantly quieter than usual, the amount of talk/moves towards the end of Day 1, and that Danbob was whacked after picking MD over me, I think there's quite a good chance that Maddog was Mafia. The Inspector also generally tends to vote opposite their given name. When Dan voted for Maddog, the tally was
This gives us a pool of Carini, Potent, Pablo, Rummy. What's interesting here is that other that Carini, none of the other three voting for me were vote switches off of Carini, nor votes that were carried over from prior runoffs. All three of them were switches off of Maddog. So whether we look at MD as Mafia or as Danbob voting opposite his given name, it makes a lot of sense to me to look at those three players. Potent's already got a vote, and between Pablo and Rummy it's really a toss-up. I see differences in both of their playing styles this game. Gonna go for Rummy.
Jaz > Rummy
I'm not going to spend much time defending myself against those who find me implicated in the whack, other than to point out that Danbob A) moved his vote off of me when there was no need to, and B) he voted for Maddog over me when given the choice between us. Pablo also pointed out that Danbob was inspector with my name last game and voted for me out the gate at the beginning of the game (which I didn't realize, thank you Pablo). My math skills have been questioned here but there's a very small chance of me being Mafia, Dan being the Inspector, and him employing the same strategy with me as his given name two games in a row (not even factoring in the other points I made above). Make of that what you will.
Post by Silver Surfer on Apr 6, 2020 10:41:47 GMT -5
potentpotables I'm sorry for saying you can't read. I'm frustrated because you keep only calling out my posts, and every time you've called out my posts it's been because you misunderstood what I said or you were putting words in my mouth
We tend to harp on the idea that we probably won't a Mafia in the first round, but between Maddog being significantly quieter than usual, the amount of talk/moves towards the end of Day 1, and that Danbob was whacked after picking MD over me, I think there's quite a good chance that Maddog was Mafia. The Inspector also generally tends to vote opposite their given name. When Dan voted for Maddog, the tally was
This gives us a pool of Carini, Potent, Pablo, Rummy. What's interesting here is that other that Carini, none of the other three voting for me were vote switches off of Carini, nor votes that were carried over from prior runoffs. All three of them were switches off of Maddog. So whether we look at MD as Mafia or as Danbob voting opposite his given name, it makes a lot of sense to me to look at those three players. Potent's already got a vote, and between Pablo and Rummy it's really a toss-up. I see differences in both of their playing styles this game. Gonna go for Rummy.
Jaz > Rummy
I'm not going to spend much time defending myself against those who find me implicated in the whack, other than to point out that Danbob A) moved his vote off of me when there was no need to, and B) he voted for Maddog over me when given the choice between us. Pablo also pointed out that Danbob was inspector with my name last game and voted for me out the gate at the beginning of the game (which I didn't realize, thank you Pablo). My math skills have been questioned here but there's a very small chance of me being Mafia, Dan being the Inspector, and him employing the same strategy with me as his given name two games in a row (not even factoring in the other points I made above). Make of that what you will.
That's part of why I asked yesterday about the data on how often a mafia person does get lynched D1. Because while it might not currently matter too much one way or another whether MD was indeed Mafia, it'll matter eventually. And I'm not at all convinced he was town. Now, I know for a fact that I didn't shift off of MD because of #cahoots, but I can see why you'd read any moves off of MD as potentially that. Fair.
Fwiw, I am leaning towards you being town at this point--even with your vote on me.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
potentpotables can you point to where I said an incorrect inspector guess isn't helpful? You're literally putting words in my mouth. All I said was that it is highly likely that they guess wrong. Also, for the most part, an inspector isn't going to reveal after an incorrect guess even if it confirms a townie. They will reveal when they have two mafia or if they're about to be lynched.
Also to the notion of misdirect whacks not being the primary goal, I disagree. I have won every game I've played as mafia and I think all but one of our whacks was a misdirect whack. One of the misdirect whacks even ended up getting the inspector, although that wasn't our goal. If maddog was town, and no one seems suspicious of anyone as mafia then they might try a misdirect with the first whack. After all, inspector could also very well guess incorrectly and only have one name. Mafia also probably wouldn't mind the inspector coming out if they only knew one name. I think it's a gamble, but I think it's a really good gamble. Inspectors more than likely wont reveal unless they get two names and it is highly unlikely that inspector gets their first guess correct. Going with a misdirect buys more time and forces town to to get all 3 mafia with the last 3 days if the misdirect works, which works way more in mafia favor. Plus, it gives the potentially alive inspector more time to hint who their name is and mafia can probably make a better guess.
The bolded part. Your words are very definite here, in my opinion. I can acknowledge that we are probably talking past each other. But when you say they'll reveal when they have two mafia or about to be lynched, I think that's wrong. Getting to D3, if the inspector is still alive, having two town names is very helpful. With 7 people left, knowing his/her identity as town plus two other townies severely reduces the pool from whom they would vote, and it builds a "team" with the two confirmed townies that gives the town a lot of power.
You can respond if you want to, but I think I've made my point and acknowledged that we were talking past each other here.
potentpotables I'm sorry for saying you can't read. I'm frustrated because you keep only calling out my posts, and every time you've called out my posts it's been because you misunderstood what I said or you were putting words in my mouth
No apologies necessary. You've posted a lot and you've voted for me, so of course I'm going to concentrate on where I think you are wrong.
For the theory that you posted, I (in my opinion) debunked the part of your theory on me, in that I in no way set myself up for a revote heading into D1R3. I do know that I fall into both last 4 voters and those without an initial vote on D1R1, nothing I can do about that - every time I vote for myself people accuse me of being a crybaby.
potentpotables can you point to where I said an incorrect inspector guess isn't helpful? You're literally putting words in my mouth. All I said was that it is highly likely that they guess wrong. Also, for the most part, an inspector isn't going to reveal after an incorrect guess even if it confirms a townie. They will reveal when they have two mafia or if they're about to be lynched.
Also to the notion of misdirect whacks not being the primary goal, I disagree. I have won every game I've played as mafia and I think all but one of our whacks was a misdirect whack. One of the misdirect whacks even ended up getting the inspector, although that wasn't our goal. If maddog was town, and no one seems suspicious of anyone as mafia then they might try a misdirect with the first whack. After all, inspector could also very well guess incorrectly and only have one name. Mafia also probably wouldn't mind the inspector coming out if they only knew one name. I think it's a gamble, but I think it's a really good gamble. Inspectors more than likely wont reveal unless they get two names and it is highly unlikely that inspector gets their first guess correct. Going with a misdirect buys more time and forces town to to get all 3 mafia with the last 3 days if the misdirect works, which works way more in mafia favor. Plus, it gives the potentially alive inspector more time to hint who their name is and mafia can probably make a better guess.
The bolded part. Your words are very definite here, in my opinion. I can acknowledge that we are probably talking past each other. But when you say they'll reveal when they have two mafia or about to be lynched, I think that's wrong. Getting to D3, if the inspector is still alive, having two town names is very helpful. With 7 people left, knowing his/her identity as town plus two other townies severely reduces the pool from whom they would vote, and it builds a "team" with the two confirmed townies that gives the town a lot of power.
You can respond if you want to, but I think I've made my point and acknowledged that we were talking past each other here.
Yeah I think you bring up a good point in that it strengthens town. And I guess I could've been more concise. Of course inspector, if still alive, would reveal day 3. At that point we have to get at least one mafia to keep the game going and the two confirmed townies At that point is super helpful.
So I'll explain what I was trying to say again. A DAY 1 misdirect is a good idea because it can A) buy mafia more time while town chases a dead end B) potential inspector will more than likely leave even more crumbs so mafia can have a more educational whack
Of course, again, a day 3 reveal would be bad for mafia, with or without a correct guess. (Which again I never said it was bad for inspector to guess incorrectly)
I was more saying inspector wouldn't reveal day 2 without a confirmed mafia. One confirmed townie and one confirmed mafia isnt as helpful as a potential two on either side.
So thus, I think it make sense for mafia to try to do a misdirect whack. It could produce an inspector whack too, even if it was intended as a misdirect (which has happened to me as mafia, as I already said)
This is the end of D1 breakdown with the two dead eliminated. Assuming Maddog was town, that means it's like that one of Carini/Pablo/Rummy/me are mafia. I am going to do a re-read focused on Carini/Pablo/Rummy.
We tend to harp on the idea that we probably won't a Mafia in the first round, but between Maddog being significantly quieter than usual, the amount of talk/moves towards the end of Day 1, and that Danbob was whacked after picking MD over me, I think there's quite a good chance that Maddog was Mafia. The Inspector also generally tends to vote opposite their given name. When Dan voted for Maddog, the tally was
This gives us a pool of Carini, Potent, Pablo, Rummy. What's interesting here is that other that Carini, none of the other three voting for me were vote switches off of Carini, nor votes that were carried over from prior runoffs. All three of them were switches off of Maddog. So whether we look at MD as Mafia or as Danbob voting opposite his given name, it makes a lot of sense to me to look at those three players. Potent's already got a vote, and between Pablo and Rummy it's really a toss-up. I see differences in both of their playing styles this game. Gonna go for Rummy.
Jaz > Rummy
I'm not going to spend much time defending myself against those who find me implicated in the whack, other than to point out that Danbob A) moved his vote off of me when there was no need to, and B) he voted for Maddog over me when given the choice between us. Pablo also pointed out that Danbob was inspector with my name last game and voted for me out the gate at the beginning of the game (which I didn't realize, thank you Pablo). My math skills have been questioned here but there's a very small chance of me being Mafia, Dan being the Inspector, and him employing the same strategy with me as his given name two games in a row (not even factoring in the other points I made above). Make of that what you will.
Jaz's logic is similar to my read of the D1 final vote that I posted last night, with the caveat that he is acting as if Maddog is mafia and I am not.
My sister just came into room (joint guest bedroom/my "Home office" while I'm staying at parents' house rn) and saw this--might I add rather dope--visual mapping tool you posted, Teddy, and then I had to try and explain succinctly what a Jortles & Manders are, and what the fuck I'm doing with my life on this Monday afternoon
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Interesting you've got Jaz over in Chaos Category; what about his play so far reads as such?
Manders being fully over on Chaos spectrum, seems about right lol.
might be early game bias, but he changed votes early and often, then kind of faded into the background. Come in, light a match, disappear type activity.
Interesting you've got Jaz over in Chaos Category; what about his play so far reads as such?
Manders being fully over on Chaos spectrum, seems about right lol.
might be early game bias, but he changed votes early and often, then kind of faded into the background. Come in, light a match, disappear type activity.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Post by potentpotables on Apr 6, 2020 12:13:11 GMT -5
We need to get some stacks going but I'm not sure any of the people with votes were highest on my list. Noodling on this as I take my lunch break from work.
