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I generally don't feel strongly about newbies being in a Day 1 runoff, though on a meta-level I admittedly don't want to scare new players away from our game, so with all else being equal, I probably have a slight preference for voting for someone who isn't completely new. That all being said, Teddy isn't a newbie. New on Inforoo, sure, but he's obviously played before.
As for my vote switch, I simply don't find it too helpful to have two people up to two votes within the first four votes of the game, especially since my stack on Teddy was accidental. People tend to not vote switch as much in the first round, so if Maddog and Teddy aren't Mafia, we'd be doing the Maf a favor by already having two people propped up to move forward.
What's more concerning to me is everyone else's reticence to stack after a few votes have been cast.
Post by piggy pablo on Apr 1, 2020 12:02:53 GMT -5
The logic about newbies seems to have always been that, if they get voted off immediately, they won't want to play in the future, which is an issue because we generally can't get enough people to play games without months of waiting. Despite Teddy having played this game elsewhere before, (not a "rookie") he's not all that active on the site and could easily be just as annoyed and not want to play in future games. That logic still applies to him, imo.
What's more concerning to me is everyone else's reticence to stack after a few votes have been cast.
If everyone subscribed to this thought process, wouldn't this give too much power to the quick out the gate voters?
Nah I don't think so. The only people with power in the first round is the Mafia, regardless of when they vote. And the Inspector to an extent. Everyone else is shooting blind. Imo the power comes more from knowledge, not voting position - in the first round at least. Regardless, the point I'm alluding to is that if Mafia already have votes on them by the time say, five or six votes are cast, they have a reason to vote for people without votes in the hopes of escaping the runoff. For vanilla townies, it doesn't really matter if they stack at that point because everyone else is just as likely to be Mafia as anyone else. So when we end up with a tally like this:
I really start to look at the people who continued to expand the potential runoff instead of stacking - since for vanilla town it shouldn't make a difference either way. There are many different strategies to this game and many are valid but this is how I tend to play.
This strikes me as a blanket statement where the "if" is doing a lot of the work.
Lol no shit. The whole game is based on ifs. That's how it's played.
Ok, well, IF both were Mafia, well that would be pretty good for Town, now wouldn't it!
Don't condescend to me for pointing out that you wrote what amounts to meaningless tripe and act like it's profound or worth basing any kind of strategy on.
Lol no shit. The whole game is based on ifs. That's how it's played.
Ok, well, IF both were Mafia, well that would be pretty good for Town, now wouldn't it!
Don't condescend to me for pointing out that you wrote what amounts to meaningless tripe and act like it's profound or worth basing any kind of strategy on.
Except it's far, far less likely that the first four votes in the game are all for two Mafia, wouldn't you agree? Some scenarios are more likely than others, and in the first round that's all I have to go on. I'm not sure why you're making it into more than that.
Ok, well, IF both were Mafia, well that would be pretty good for Town, now wouldn't it!
Don't condescend to me for pointing out that you wrote what amounts to meaningless tripe and act like it's profound or worth basing any kind of strategy on.
Except it's far, far less likely that the first four votes in the game are all for two Mafia, wouldn't you agree? Some scenarios are more likely than others, and in the first round that's all I have to go on. I'm not sure why you're making it into more than that.
It's unlikely that both are Mafia, but it's basically 50/50 that either at least one is Mafia or that none are, if votes are random, and I'd argue that the quicker these votes happen, the more likely to be random they are (mine was literally random, Carini's is typically random, or using his system, yours was seemingly random, or at least lacking in complete information, if we're to take your unintentional stack at face value). So, basically, if those were random, the expectation of the number of Mafia in that pair is a little over one, I think. Haven't done the exact math in awhile, but I'll post it in a few minutes.
(3/11) * 2 = 54% chance there's a Mafia in those two based on completely random chance. So yes it's a 50/50 chance if completely random. We'd have to have a random selection of 3-4 players to expect Mafia to be one of them though. So, using that exact same math, there's a decent chance one of the first four voters is a Mafia - meaning there's less of a chance that they voted for a fellow Mafia (though it certainly happens).
Still, this is waaaaay too deep to be looking into why I didn't want there to be two stacked players within the first four votes of the game. You can think whatever you'd like about that but it's a trivial point to continue explaining.
(3/11) * 2 = 54% chance there's a Mafia in those two based on completely random chance. So yes it's a 50/50 chance if completely random. We'd have to have a random selection of 3-4 players to expect Mafia to be one of them though. So, using that exact same math, there's a decent chance one of the first four voters is a Mafia - meaning there's less of a chance that they voted for a fellow Mafia (though it certainly happens).
Still, this is waaaaay too deep to be looking into why I didn't want there to be two stacked players within the first four votes of the game. You can think whatever you'd like about that but it's a trivial point to continue explaining.
(3/11)*2 has no statistical significance here whatsoever. What you're trying to say, I think, is (3/11)^2, which would also be wrong, because once you remove without replacement, you're choosing your second Mafia randomly with two to pick from ten. It's (3/11)*(2/10)=.0545454. The fact that those two numbers even look similar is basically a coincidence.
Regardless, it's not trivial to point out that your logic is flawed; that there is as good a chance that in a quick double-stack we have a Mafia in there as we don't. It's only because I respect your intelligence (and that of the other players) that I expect better from you, and that I want to go over this logic. I'm not trying to nail you to the wall. I'm just trying to show why I can't take what you're saying at face value, and that gives me some pause.
Post by Teddy Flair on Apr 1, 2020 13:19:13 GMT -5
So where are we at? Just in a holding pattern until the runoff? I guess it's still a little too early to do proper hunting, but this runoff thing really is new to me and I'm not sure how to proceed.
Post by piggy pablo on Apr 1, 2020 13:20:38 GMT -5
Either way, I get the sense that Maddog is clamming up and hoping to fall out of the runoff, so I don't really plan on moving. I'm not going to get tunnelvision this early.
