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Either way, I get the sense that Maddog is clamming up and hoping to fall out of the runoff, so I don't really plan on moving. I'm not going to get tunnelvision this early.
Dude same. I made the joke about Belgian earlier in the thread, but I'm actually starting to get concerned about Maddog. Blah blah blah something to hide or nothing to offer.
So where are we at? Just in a holding pattern until the runoff? I guess it's still a little too early to do proper hunting, but this runoff thing really is new to me and I'm not sure how to proceed.
Probably. Any vote change at this point would probably trigger an extension or request for an extension, and the majority of players are fairly quiet so far. I don't imagine much is changing between now and 4 EST, though I could be wrong.
Three out of eleven players are Mafia, so the chance of any single player being Mafia is ~27%. That chance doubles if we randomly select two players instead of one, so ~54% (.54 repeating, same as what you got). No? If there were five players and one Mafia, there's a 20% chance that any one player selected at random is Mafia, and a 40% chance we get one Mafia by selecting two players. So sub in eleven and three for five and one. The math still checks out. But yeah, while probability may guide my moves, it doesn't dictate them. "I felt like moving my vote, so I did" is how a lot of people play the game as well. So going forward please forgive me if I don't calculate the statistical probabilities of my moves before making them.
You can have the last word on this if you want; the horse is dead and I'm leaving it be.
Three out of eleven players are Mafia, so the chance of any single player being Mafia is ~27%. That chance doubles if we randomly select two players instead of one, so ~54% (.54 repeating, same as what you got). No? If there were five players and one Mafia, there's a 20% chance that any one player selected at random is Mafia, and a 40% chance we get one Mafia by selecting two players. So sub in eleven and three for five and one. The math still checks out. But yeah, while probability may guide my moves, it doesn't dictate them. "I felt like moving my vote, so I did" is how a lot of people play the game as well. So going forward please forgive me if I don't calculate the statistical probabilities of my moves before making them.
You can have the last word on this if you want; the horse is dead and I'm leaving it be.
Well, you're literally doing the math wrong, and I already explained it. I'm sorry if you're mad about it.
havent moved my vote because theres not a lot to go off of to warrant a change atm. ive generally stuck with the idea that last 4 voters and those without votes on them are good places to start. so dan being where my vote ends up this round is ok with me.
i would have if the runoff didn't shape itself right (the point of the game that jaz was talking about with the non stacks), but it sorted itself out that it wasn't just the two of us for a long time.
i dont really have any issues with 5 or 4 ways. i don't know if the stats in game have really pointed to people pushing for a specific number being any kind of tell.
Is Rummy typically this chill? Don't think I've played in a game with her before.
For reference, I am working full days M-F still--just from home. I am definitely aiming to keep up with reading the thread sporadically when I have a pause from what I'm working on, but for deeper discussion and analysis, I prob won't be doing a whole lot of that during work hours on weekdays.
Also, I'm the definition of cHiLl (ok maybe not fully accurate)
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Post by Teddy Flair on Apr 1, 2020 15:42:04 GMT -5
So out of maddog, Jortles, danbob, Jaz, and Carini, how do we feel? I always lean towards dumping off the least active people day 1, so that leaves my choice between maddog and Carini. Y'all care to defend yourselves?
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Oh man did I accidentally save rummy and then give her all the power? That could potentially look bad later oops
You didn't save her - she would have only had 1 vote so she wouldn't have advanced. I think she also would have had a revote anyway. The only thing you did was act AGAINST Jaz and Carini, really.
Oh man did I accidentally save rummy and then give her all the power? That could potentially look bad later oops
You didn't save her - she would have only had 1 vote so she wouldn't have advanced. I think she also would have had a revote anyway. The only thing you did was act AGAINST Jaz and Carini, really.
Oh man did I accidentally save rummy and then give her all the power? That could potentially look bad later oops
Haha yeah but this is the kind of power that I don't want.
People will still have time to switch their votes around though...so it isn't like whatever vote I throw out now HAS to be the ultimate call for who gets offed First Day, right? (sorry y'all, it has been a while--I'm rusty)
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Teddy Flair
Which Ditch Bridge Troll Doesn't Want This
Post by Teddy Flair on Apr 1, 2020 15:51:34 GMT -5
I did a ctrl-F on page one but couldn't find anything; what the heck is a revote? Sorry about all the rules questions, y'all weren't kidding about having a learning curve.
I did a ctrl-F on page one but couldn't find anything; what the heck is a revote? Sorry about all the rules questions, y'all weren't kidding about having a learning curve.
Since there's a runoff, the people who voted for people that didn't make it get to recast. Rummy didn't have her vote on anyone still on the runoff so she gets her vote back for this round
Oh man did I accidentally save rummy and then give her all the power? That could potentially look bad later oops
Haha yeah but this is the kind of power that I don't want.
People will still have time to switch their votes around though...so it isn't like whatever vote I throw out now HAS to be the ultimate call for who gets offed First Day, right? (sorry y'all, it has been a while--I'm rusty)
Right. The idea is still to get this down to 3 at the end of this round. Just takes a couple switches.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
I flipped a coin and won't be changing my vote right away.
You have a 5 sided coin?
No. I flipped a coin to decide whether I would change my vote. If I had gotten heads, I would have RNGed between the five, or maybe four, or actually I'm not sure how that would have worked.
But I got tails, so that makes it easy. Not planning on moving til I need to.
