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I don't have a long post for Theo. I've thought about him a lot, but my guess is he is just playing as an absolutely weirdo Townie that was really willing to die right there when momentum started shifting towards him. Mafia couldn't let that happen given the scenario. He would have kicked and screamed a bit more in the last couple pages imo. Idk... I also think it would have been extremely risky for Kanye and rooloo to give away two mafia names while praying Inspector didn't have the third (kanye).
I pretty much resigned to the fact that I was going to be lynched D2 or D3 because of Rooloo. I expressed my defense, and I don't have any info that can really help the town. I don't think that people are really going to listen to me in the position I'm in.
Also, I'm not sure it's smart to straight lynch Theo today. I think we need to fashion a runoff and see where votes fall. I'm just trying to decide to whom I'm throwing my vote.
If two Mafia are dead, runoffs won't tell us anything. The third Mafia can just go along with the game, believe the fully Inspector, agree with townies, offer theories that will seem legitimate, etc.
Strongly disagree. I still maintain that the best way for the town to win is to work together and keep talking. I think if we don't rush things in that vein, the third mafia member will become moderately easier to find. I don't see how straight lynches help the cause.
and to Jake Jortles follow up point, yes, pre and post reveal games are two different games, but that doesn't mean they have to be played differently. I still believe in putting information out there and testing those theories and thoughts.
I can definitely understand why someone would find me suspicious, but I can't help and be a little salty because it feels like I'm being punished for having good day 1 reads. From my understanding of the post there's two main points against me
I'm a likely candidate because I'm traditionally a player who would advocate for a scheme like this, and my familiarity with groupme.
I was absent during the action last night
The first point is kind of hard to address. Yeah I do love pulling crazy shit as mafia, and I use groupme daily. So I guess to address this point I'll give you the rundown of the thoughts I was having day 1 before the groupme thing. Recently, I think I've picked up a tell on kanye (for obvious reasons I won't say what it is), and when I saw he exhibited it day 1 I kinda just decided that I was gonna go for it - seemed better than just randomly casting votes, and even if I was wrong peoples' reaction to my confidence would have provided some good info. Then I switched to rooloo based on a gut feeling that there was something even fishier going on in the runoff. Now, I didn't have any reads on the rest of the runooff and rooloo was a random score for me. Then when Rummy switch back to surfer, I jumped back.
To address the groupme thing, my frat uses it for everything so I know it well, but I've never used it for mafia.
For the second bullet point, I was with my roommates watching the osu michigan reruns and getting drunk (it was a first down!!!!). I did check in before I went to bed and read 5 whole pages, so I think I should be cut some slack.
If anyone has any questions for me feel free to ask.
Appreciate this post, but I'd add a third bullet to explain your interactions with a mafia Kanye all throughout Day 1. Would Mafia Kanye really be talking that way to a pure towny? He and Rooloo both took shots at you as if they were comfortable doing it. My main bullet point on you is the potential distancing act.
Again, I'm not confident.
It's hard for me to really give you a good answer for that. I cannot speak for why kanye and rooloo acted the way they did, but we all have seen kanye act exactly the same way as mafia before. I think whoever is arguing for the distancing theory here, needs better evidence than the way kanye was talking. As for rooloo, with hindsight its kinda easy to see he was mafia, he was more active, and a lot more confident. I would argue he was acting like that because solely he was mafia, not because he and I are mafia together.
Honestly I was considering this even before Rooloo's post. It's also the sort of move that's right up Tranter's wheelhouse imo.
Not to mention that, to be honest, our plan a couple games ago was pretty dope – and it was having LD the doctor in the day one runoff that fucked it all up. I wouldn’t be that surprised if someone saw what we were trying to pull then but failed bc of unlucky circumstances, and figured why not take the opportunity to bring it to fruition.
And I, too, could see King T being in on that.
Eh, call me crazy, but:
Rummy>King T
This is right around the time when I was sending up the bat signal and asking for Jaz to talk to me.
This whole “I don’t even know what an inspector” thing from T is also not sitting right. Surely he’s given at least one game a look before? Skimmed the rules? Something?
In the midst of my show, Rummy is straight tunnel vision on T.
I’d have to go back and see who rooloo interacted w but I think people thought I was inspector cause I made a joke about being super confident in rooloo based on so little
This is what gets me tho—why would the inspector come out and say something so blatantly obvious about their given name? I don’t think at this point that Jaz is lying about being Doctor, and it seems he isn’t the only one who thought King T was Inspector bc of this, but.....Idkkkkk something about the whole thing feels off.
Still going in. I think one or two of these were even after i revealed myself.
There’s a reason I haven’t changed my vote off King T
Still... so here is my question: Does Mafia want to go this hard directly in the middle of my shenanigans? What if I revealed something that made her heavy suspicion of T look terrible?
Cmon Kanye - bring it. Or plz plz let the third give it a whirl.
Wait, so you're saying that Mafia Kanye would literally reply to King T's "Rooloo is 100% Mafia" comment with "noooo, I hope this isnt what I think it is!" because he was Mafia himself and worried Rooloo was given name?
Also why would you announce to everyone “i hope that isnt what i think...”
Yes we all saw it, but as a towny you shouldnt want to highlight it.
That post is literally the only reason I have any suspicion of Tranter. It looks like Kanye could have wanted to doc to waste the save on tanter there by making sure everyone saw that shit.
But that is only one of a couple thoughts I have.
Sorry Jort, hadn't seen this post of yours when I replied just now to the thread (shit is moving fast). I agree with you on the bolded part--that's a feasible possiblity.
These two posts back to back look very, very Townish to me. She's still got her tunnelvision set on T and recklessly tries to not buy my reveal of Kanye quickly. But then apologizes right after. I can't make sense of Mafia acting without care like this given the circumstances.
For those reasons, I lean Town on Rummy. Again, who knows. I definitely don't want to lose to Rummy again with a trick like this, but I'm currently guessing she's Town.
I can definitely understand why someone would find me suspicious, but I can't help and be a little salty because it feels like I'm being punished for having good day 1 reads. From my understanding of the post there's two main points against me
I'm a likely candidate because I'm traditionally a player who would advocate for a scheme like this, and my familiarity with groupme.
I was absent during the action last night
The first point is kind of hard to address. Yeah I do love pulling crazy shit as mafia, and I use groupme daily. So I guess to address this point I'll give you the rundown of the thoughts I was having day 1 before the groupme thing. Recently, I think I've picked up a tell on kanye (for obvious reasons I won't say what it is), and when I saw he exhibited it day 1 I kinda just decided that I was gonna go for it - seemed better than just randomly casting votes, and even if I was wrong peoples' reaction to my confidence would have provided some good info. Then I switched to rooloo based on a gut feeling that there was something even fishier going on in the runoff. Now, I didn't have any reads on the rest of the runooff and rooloo was a random score for me. Then when Rummy switch back to surfer, I jumped back.
To address the groupme thing, my frat uses it for everything so I know it well, but I've never used it for mafia.
For the second bullet point, I was with my roommates watching the osu michigan reruns and getting drunk (it was a first down!!!!). I did check in before I went to bed and read 5 whole pages, so I think I should be cut some slack.
If anyone has any questions for me feel free to ask.
Appreciate this post, but I'd add a third bullet to explain your interactions with a mafia Kanye all throughout Day 1. Would Mafia Kanye really be talking that way to a pure towny? He and Rooloo both took shots at you as if they were comfortable doing it. My main bullet point on you is the potential distancing act.
Again, I'm not confident.
Yes, and it also does make me wonder.....so, multiple people firmly believed King T was Inspector after D1, including our Doctor who opted to save him in effect. This came from his blatant comments about finding Rooloo suspicious early on. Now, i do recognize that King T is a newbie to the game, so folks likely figured "ok, he's got Rooloo as his name & isn't being discreet at allllll because he's new to this and doesn't understand how Inspectors want to lay low at first." Fair.
But then, we look at Danny's interactions with Kanye and one could argue that he was being just as blatant about his suspicions of Kanye, maybe even more so than King T was about his with Rooloo...and there's just something about it that, as Jortles says above, doesn't ring as vanilla townie interaction from Danny B. How hard hitting he was with it.
So my question, specifically to Jaz but to other "I believed King T was Inspector after D1" peeps: is the differentiating factor here primarily the fact that King T is a noob so it came off as accidental recklessness, whereas Danny B would know not to be so obvious w/ his given name? Because no one seemed to think Danny B was Inspector from his comments, though they did King T from his
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
I'm the originator of the "no initial day one vote" theory. My thought is that the first round of votes that are made on D1 are the purest knowledge we have, because it's when a townie looks at their role and makes a choice based on absolutely nothing related to their opinions of the game. When it shakes out and we have a normal four way, that means that there are four people who haven't received votes. We know that in any random group of four, the number of mafia is something like 1.33 statistically. The theory and rudimentary research I've done shows that this is at least the number for those four not receiving votes. So it's not random, and I know I'm going to put my vote on someone who's in that group eventually. But I have to cast a vote for it to work.
I am a little creeped out that a few people have jumped on this theory with me in the last few games, specifically in this game Silver Surfer , going as far to advocate for himself in the runoff.
Kind of got lost in the shuffle due to my nap but this shows the perfect way for mafia to exploit your "no votes on" gameplan.
Vote for each other off the bat and with the world knowing you are going to move it provides cover for both and keeps you off the no votes list. Works even better if you aren't in the last 4.
I'm not against the theory but I think you should vary how you act on it.
This crossed my mind, and it’s a fucking incredible plan if that’s the case, which I don’t think it is.
To me it would take something like this to believe that you and Jortles aren't mafia. The fact that Jaz offered you a lifeline and you dismissed it puzzles me. There was a very good chance for a town lynch still and losing a mafia on day 1 unknowingly to the town is still a very winnable scenario. Based on this the only question to me is who first?
Why isn’t that possible? He sacrifices himself and takes the heat off the other two Mafias by framing Theo and Jortles.
I don't think they were in that much danger unless it was a plan from the start. I was a part of a mafia when one of my teammates posted in the game thread instead of mafia chat so I'm well aware it is most likely a slip
Carini really went in on buying the GroupMe post later on. I imagine the distancing 3rd wouldn't want to get caught trying to sell that this thing was real and question Tranters doubt of it immediately. But also maybe there was no further gameplan for mafia and this was necessary. After all, Kanye was selling that shit straight up in the thread. So maybe they were all three proud of their baby and wanted it to go over as planned. I still land on the side of their being a plan b / distancing third.
Since I have Rooloo and 1 other, I guess I was wondering like what if I keep this teased and the third pops their head up to fake because they have to flip a coin because they don't know which name I have.
Whereas if I say the name now, that name will surely be the one to counter while the other just distances through Day 5.
Maybe it is the corn, maybe just me but I'm not wrapping my head around something. Was Rooloo the given name? You said you got the guess right. If he wasn't given name you would have all 3.
carini12 why are you voting for me? I can't find any reason for your suspicion.
I think there is a good chance you may have quickly voted for the first mafia teammate you saw in the chat box, and reply telling Rooloo to retaliate. Reasons for this is it keeps 2 mafia out of the last 4 voters as well as gets each of you a vote. It is an accepted practice that you will move your vote to somebody without so they have nothing to fear.
I like that Carini stuck to making an enemy out of Potent. I don't think the third Mafia would want a ton of enemys right now.
Anyone else thinking we should off Theo to hedge our bets that 1 name was fake and 1 real to throw us off?
This is bothersome to me, but its also the way Jaz is thinking and we know jaz is town.
Carini is someone I'm kinda Neutral on. I think he could be playing a role similar to what Maddog could be playing, but for some reason i lean a little more Town on him But overall he is a bit of a question mark.
Silver - 8 (Potent, Maddog, Jortles*, Carini, King T, Dan, Theo ,Carini) Theo - 1 (Jaz) King T - 1 (Rummy) Jortles - 1 (Silver*)
Jaz > Jortles King T > Danbob Theo > Theo Silver > Theo Maddog > Danbob Rummy > King T Theo > Theo > Danbob Potent > Rummy Carini > Potent King T > Danbob > Potent Potent > Rummy > King T Madog > Danbob > null Potent > King T > Silver Theo > Danbob > Null Maddog > Null > Silver Jaz > Jortles > Theo Jortles > Silver* Silver > Theo > Jortles* King T > Silver Dan > Silver Theo > Silver Carini > Silver
Post by Jake Jortles on May 1, 2020 13:32:48 GMT -5
That is everyone. If I had a magic wand, I would lynch in the following order:
1. Dan 2. Maddog 3. Carini
(on Day 5 now)
4. Potent 5. Rummy 6. King T 7. Theo 8. Jaz
However, I am aware that if you go into a Day 5 with Tranter, Theo and Rummy, shit would be dangerous. I definitely don't know who the third is, and I partially wish I had waited.
Also - Mafia... please keep me alive so I can hit you with the finisher.
Post by Jake Jortles on May 1, 2020 13:34:50 GMT -5
Jortles > Dan
You can lead a Town to water... but they will still waste an early lynch Theo in this scenario. Guy has accepted his death - is he really the last Mafia? Can we not give them a free pass?
Post by potentpotables on May 1, 2020 13:35:24 GMT -5
Theo is going to be the lynch here regardless, because we don't all agree on tactics, which is fine, so I guess I'll vote for him and deal with the fallout on D3 if Theo is town. If Theo doesn't work out, the first four votes for Theo (knowing that Jaz is town/doctor) are the places we should look next but because everyone piled on Theo immediately on D3, it's going to be tough to decipher.
Post by Jake Jortles on May 1, 2020 13:38:14 GMT -5
Idk maybe you guys are correct and they gave away two of their 3 Mafia on day 1 with no plan b for Kanye. I'll eat crow and look like a jackass if the ref ends the game here, but I think this is a shining example of how our Town wastes lynches and loses games.
Post by Jeremy Fragrance on May 1, 2020 13:41:27 GMT -5
This is town's best chance to win the game for the first time in a long time. The game isn't going to end with my lynch, but I believe that the town can do this.
Idk maybe you guys are correct and they gave away two of their 3 Mafia on day 1 with no plan b for Kanye. I'll eat crow and look like a jackass if the ref ends the game here, but I think this is a shining example of how our Town wastes lynches and loses games.
I agree with this, I should have stayed with my gut. Not convinced Danbob is mafia but not convinced he's not. I'm open to another avenue, but...
I really don't have any reads or insight to offer, I've just been so focused on defending myself from Rooloo's post.
You’re fine bb. FWIW, I am in the camp of “if Rooloo’s post was planned as a frame, they probably didn’t throw one of their own names in there”....or if they did, that was real silly since Kanye has been outed & lynched now.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Appreciate this post, but I'd add a third bullet to explain your interactions with a mafia Kanye all throughout Day 1. Would Mafia Kanye really be talking that way to a pure towny? He and Rooloo both took shots at you as if they were comfortable doing it. My main bullet point on you is the potential distancing act.
Again, I'm not confident.
Yes, and it also does make me wonder.....so, multiple people firmly believed King T was Inspector after D1, including our Doctor who opted to save him in effect. This came from his blatant comments about finding Rooloo suspicious early on. Now, i do recognize that King T is a newbie to the game, so folks likely figured "ok, he's got Rooloo as his name & isn't being discreet at allllll because he's new to this and doesn't understand how Inspectors want to lay low at first." Fair.
But then, we look at Danny's interactions with Kanye and one could argue that he was being just as blatant about his suspicions of Kanye, maybe even more so than King T was about his with Rooloo...and there's just something about it that, as Jortles says above, doesn't ring as vanilla townie interaction from Danny B. How hard hitting he was with it.
So my question, specifically to Jaz but to other "I believed King T was Inspector after D1" peeps: is the differentiating factor here primarily the fact that King T is a noob so it came off as accidental recklessness, whereas Danny B would know not to be so obvious w/ his given name? Because no one seemed to think Danny B was Inspector from his comments, though they did King T from his
Yes, though I only mean that in regards to the bolded and not "whereas Danny...". Danbob was not on my radar or a consideration in who might be Inspector at all. There was a game a while back when a first-time player got inspector and was kinda just like "I am 'inspecting' the situation and think that XYZ is Mafia" - they legit didn't know how to effectively play as Inspector since it was their first game. That was definitely in my mind with King T's post.
Yes, though I only mean that in regards to the bolded and not "whereas Danny...". Danbob was not on my radar or a consideration in who might be Inspector at all. There was a game a while back when a first-time player got inspector and was kinda just like "I am 'inspecting' the situation and think that XYZ is Mafia" - they legit didn't know how to effectively play as Inspector since it was their first game. That was definitely in my mind with King T's post.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
That is everyone. If I had a magic wand, I would lynch in the following order:
1. Dan 2. Maddog 3. Carini
(on Day 5 now)
4. Potent 5. Rummy 6. King T 7. Theo 8. Jaz
However, I am aware that if you go into a Day 5 with Tranter, Theo and Rummy, shit would be dangerous. I definitely don't know who the third is, and I partially wish I had waited.
Also - Mafia... please keep me alive so I can hit you with the finisher.
Will admit I'm a litttttle nervous about you having Theo all the way down at #7, even though I also don't think he should be lynched now. Because IF Rooloo's post was an actual slip (I certainly am not leaning that way, but I also don't think we can be sure it wasn't--as Carini said, he's been in a game where a similar slip like that occurred), and we leave Theo til the end, that ain't good. Especially if Jortles isn't whacked.
I think he will be. I don't believe the scenario i just posited is super likely. But it is technically possible, so just want to throw out to mention
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
This is the count before rooloo seemingly outed themself and tried to out others. This is for future reference (I edited JTRs count before the rooloo outing FYI).
I keep coming back to this tally. I think it makes sense that 2 mafia are jortles here so both potent and mad dog should both be subjects. Carini also just held his initial vote on rooloo so I guess theres a possibility there too. Rummy, theo, and king t im pretty convinced are town.
This is the count before rooloo seemingly outed themself and tried to out others. This is for future reference (I edited JTRs count before the rooloo outing FYI).
I keep coming back to this tally. I think it makes sense that 2 mafia are jortles here so both potent and mad dog should both be subjects. Carini also just held his initial vote on rooloo so I guess theres a possibility there too. Rummy, theo, and king t im pretty convinced are town.
Thanks for pulling this back up....fascinating situation here, wherein looks like we likely had two Mafia (Rooloo & Silver) and our Inspector (Jortles) up against each other for a run-off.
I think we can all agree that it doesn't make sense that Jortles & Kanye would be Mafia together, on the off chance that Jortles is lying and is Mafia. Why the helllll would they do their fake groupme thread ploy and then have Jortles fake Inspector only to name his own teammate...that would be some actual madness.
There is, however, a chance still that Jortles & Rooloo were Mafia together and decided "fuck it, let's just hedge our bets here and go for it" even though there was definitely still time for Silver to be the lynch instead of one of them.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
I honestly think that a theo vs me runoff is a huge waste of time. Let's do potent vs mad dog
Potent is being quieter than he usually is as town. I think he's more sus than MD, who I don't think is acting very differently from how he typically does (isn't he generally on the quieter side as town?).
Sure, Potent is fifth in post count, but I don't feel like he's been very *vocal*
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
potentpotables I wanna keep talking strategy. If you believe Jortles to be Inspector, then we have one Mafia left alive. You say you want town to continue talking etc to get more information. Since a singular Mafia has no teammates to save or distance from, what sort of evidence are you looking for that you think could help the town?
