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I'm willing to hear you out. Since deadline isn't til tomorrow morning, I'm gonna stay locked rn--will unlock if feel like there's reason enough to do so. But I'm currently residing in "extremely skeptical" realm.
Why Teddy as your guess N1? That one really doesn't make sense to me.
And Kanye faked as town to give cover to....the inspector he named as Mafia?? This theory necessitates the idea that Kanye had no earthly idea who Real Inspector might be and just blindly made an attempt as town to see what happened. Wouldn't put it past him, but again, I'm extremely skeptical.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Post by Cookin' Mama on May 26, 2020 21:36:41 GMT -5
I guessed teddy N1 because he kept noting how quiet D1 was which felt weird to me from him because in games past he was always the one who wanted to cool down D1 and not have like 20 pages to it. Him and Dan were in agreement about the quietness and had an exchange about it so that raised my eyebrow at the time. These are small thing admittedly but it's D1 so there's not much to go off of.
Knowing Dan was mafia and we stoned him D1 I wanted to make sure I had a look at a Jortles voter on N2. Potent was a Jortles voter up until his doctor reveal and then he switched to Dan. I also found it curious how people just kind of jumped on LD for, imo, not much. Potent was also one of these people. I didn't have a feel for Rothric or Jaz (who wasn't a LD voter granted but he raised suspicious of him and originally voted for him before switching off because he didn't want to stack.) Given that and I was also feeling that Potent was off a little, particularly on D1, I went with Potent. I didn't feel amazing about this guess because on D2 I wanted to see if I could find more but D2 was crazy quiet so I wasn't finding anything particularly striking from many people. Refelecting now Potent just being "off" can probably be chalked up to how quiet this game has been.
Dan was particularly squirm-y while he was in the runoff. Constantly saying how quiet the game was, calling attention to LD slipping out of the runoff. Nothing super out of the ordinary not knowing he's mafia I guess but I thought it was interesting.
Dan - 6 (Jortles, JTR, Teddy, Rummy, Kanye, Potent) Jortles - 5 (Jaz, Dan, LD, Rothric, Travis)
My vote switched to not stone the claimed doctor, and I know I'm town, so I'm looking at two groups of 5. I'm counting Dan as town, as per usual, because it doesn't matter whether he's town or not at this point. It sucks that we had doctor in the final 2 for many reasons, including the reason now that looking at the D1 split doesn't help much. I'm still trying to make sense of it.
Because of my late vote switch after Jortles claim, it's possible that the mafia could be 2-1 with two on Jortles. I usually assume that the mafia have the stronger hand on voting one out, especially when it's two townies. With the runoff currently set at Jaz/LD/Rothric, I think that makes a lot of sense as 3 of the 4 alive Jortles voters.
I remain susssss of JTR, and I don't love that he jumped on my Jaz vote.
Even though he’s dead in this instance it does matter if dan was town or not. He was in the final runoff so if he was mafia it’s reasonable to believe at least one or possibly both potential teammates were on Jortles instead. I don’t think you should out right assume he was town since he was in the final runoff. Otherwise I’d agree.
And here's me calling attention to maaaybe it not being the best idea to consider dan as town
Admittedly I didn't leave many bread crumbs because my given was dead D1 (which good job by us for doing that) and because I thought it was a better idea for me not to bring unwanted attention to myself and try to get a name which I did an awful job of and I'm sorry for that
Kanye goofin' during the first night to probably, badly, try to get mafia to think he put his guess in the wrong thread and whack him as inspector. Or maybe he's just fucking around. And come on why would inspector pick then to reveal? Can you name a dumber time to reveal? If he's got two names why not just do it at the beginning of D2 or stick to your guns and make it to D3.
That’s a goofy fake he pulled which makes me think he’s town. It looks like he was trying to save inspector from being whacked on N2 which a fake
So, another thing, upon review of the past few pages... why would Kanye feel confident that Mafia would opt to whack a fake Inspector who gave away presumably TWO false names (*if* you are truth-telling, JTR, there is of course the possibility that LD actually was Mafia nonetheless)? But even if, say, LD was indeed Mafia, the team would still know that Kanye was lying because one of the names he gave away would be false...so why whack him? Wouldn't they rather go for someone they genuinely thought to be Inspector?
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
That’s a goofy fake he pulled which makes me think he’s town. It looks like he was trying to save inspector from being whacked on N2 which a fake
So, another thing, upon review of the past few pages... why would Kanye feel confident that Mafia would opt to whack a fake Inspector who gave away presumably TWO false names (*if* you are truth-telling, JTR, there is of course the possibility that LD actually was Mafia nonetheless)? But even if, say, LD was indeed Mafia, the team would still know that Kanye was lying because one of the names he gave away would be false...so why whack him? Wouldn't they rather go for someone they genuinely thought to be Inspector?
Really I don’t know. Maybe they thought he was giving a fake name/names to throw them off so he wouldn’t get whacked that night? It’s probably just as simple as, “let’s take no chances”
So, another thing, upon review of the past few pages... why would Kanye feel confident that Mafia would opt to whack a fake Inspector who gave away presumably TWO false names (*if* you are truth-telling, JTR, there is of course the possibility that LD actually was Mafia nonetheless)? But even if, say, LD was indeed Mafia, the team would still know that Kanye was lying because one of the names he gave away would be false...so why whack him? Wouldn't they rather go for someone they genuinely thought to be Inspector?
Really I don’t know. Maybe they thought he was giving a fake name/names to throw them off so he wouldn’t get whacked that night? It’s probably just as simple as, “let’s take no chances”
FWIW, I'm not entirely sold one way or the other currently, on whether you're telling the truth or not. So I am willing to engage with you right now and see if I can get a better sense of clarity on which way to lean. But I have some serious doubts/questions still. It feels like a really big risk for Kanye to take if Town who had no idea who Inspector might be, and towards what end? If he felt the Inspector was sure to be whacked, then maybe, but then that would've required him having a strong leaning on who Inspector was--which, if you're telling the truth, he clearly didn't since he named you...
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Post by Cookin' Mama on May 26, 2020 22:04:36 GMT -5
Basically even if you don't believe me, you shouldn't do mafia's job for them. Whichever inspector you believe you have at least one dead mafia member so you're guaranteed a D4 no matter what. If I'm telling the truth you have two confirmed townies. If they have to whack me one of those confirmed townies makes it to D5, if you make it there obviously and you don't stone them. So instead of having basically three people who could be mafia you only have two. And if I don't get whacked I'll give you whoever I guess but at that point fuck it, kill me.
I don't know if this is persuasive in any way or even makes sense but it sounded good in my head
Really I don’t know. Maybe they thought he was giving a fake name/names to throw them off so he wouldn’t get whacked that night? It’s probably just as simple as, “let’s take no chances”
FWIW, I'm not entirely sold one way or the other currently, on whether you're telling the truth or not. So I am willing to engage with you right now and see if I can get a better sense of clarity on which way to lean. But I have some serious doubts/questions still. It feels like a really big risk for Kanye to take if Town who had no idea who Inspector might be, and towards what end? If he felt the Inspector was sure to be whacked, then maybe, but then that would've required him having a strong leaning on who Inspector was--which, if you're telling the truth, he clearly didn't since he named you...
No if he was town I completely agree, that's a really bad move. I just was trying to get to the possible logic behind it.
If he was mafia it sure would be nice to get two townies dead no questions asked if for whatever reason they thought inspector was dead. Which I don't know why they would think that. Or they knew that one of their own was dead and decided to try and cause some chaos in a really quiet game to throw town off on who the real inspector is and sow doubt on their claim.
So the options are JTR is really Inspector, and he's trying desperately to help us, by not letting us stone him. Or the real inspector is dead, and he's mafia trying to hide. Or he's a townie trying to save his own skin. Which is really the most likely? I'm more on the side of believing him to be the actual inspector, really.
FWIW, I'm not entirely sold one way or the other currently, on whether you're telling the truth or not. So I am willing to engage with you right now and see if I can get a better sense of clarity on which way to lean. But I have some serious doubts/questions still. It feels like a really big risk for Kanye to take if Town who had no idea who Inspector might be, and towards what end? If he felt the Inspector was sure to be whacked, then maybe, but then that would've required him having a strong leaning on who Inspector was--which, if you're telling the truth, he clearly didn't since he named you...
No if he was town I completely agree, that's a really bad move. I just was trying to get to the possible logic behind it.
If he was mafia it sure would be nice to get two townies dead no questions asked if for whatever reason they thought inspector was dead. Which I don't know why they would think that. Or they knew that one of their own was dead and decided to try and cause some chaos in a really quiet game to throw town off on who the real inspector is and sow doubt on their claim.
Unlocked
I tell you what, I'll hear you out.
Why would Kanye out himself as mafia when he was in no danger? LD was already dead/about to die (don't remember the exact timing, and short on time right now). So no advantage there. And in order to sell the story, they have to waste one of their whacks on their own.
So mafia give up one of their own...for what?
I just don't see it, but I'll weigh the scenarios in my head tonight.
No if he was town I completely agree, that's a really bad move. I just was trying to get to the possible logic behind it.
If he was mafia it sure would be nice to get two townies dead no questions asked if for whatever reason they thought inspector was dead. Which I don't know why they would think that. Or they knew that one of their own was dead and decided to try and cause some chaos in a really quiet game to throw town off on who the real inspector is and sow doubt on their claim.
Unlocked
I tell you what, I'll hear you out.
Why would Kanye out himself as mafia when he was in no danger? LD was already dead/about to die (don't remember the exact timing, and short on time right now). So no advantage there. And in order to sell the story, they have to waste one of their whacks on their own.
So mafia give up one of their own...for what?
I just don't see it, but I'll weigh the scenarios in my head tonight.
The thing that makes the most sense and not getting off into conspiracy theory land is basically my last sentence in that post, that mafia knows one of their own is dead and decides to get some chaos going to try to get town to question the real inspectors reveal. Or even better for them, they got lucky and whacked inspector. Then they've got two townies dead without doing much.
But even this seems far fetched to me and could see this being a crazy town fake. And if anyone were to do a crazy town fake like this it would be Kanye lol. But in that same breath I could see him going through with this idea if he were mafia and wanted to sow some doubts.
Post by Cookin' Mama on May 26, 2020 22:49:57 GMT -5
Another reason why I have doubts that this is mafia is because kanye was well "hidden" and wasn't getting any heat from anyone other than a retaliation vote from LD. Even I said I didn't think he was mafia. Why blow that cover and fake like that? I think this very well could be a town fake.
I guess this can be used against my claim to inspector also but whatever I want to lay it all out
-About equally likely=Kanye Faked as Town and JTR is Faking as Mafia -Less likely=Kanye faked as Mafia
I think I still want my vote on JTR right now. I've done enough D4/5s where there's that Unknown Factor still alive, and the remaining townies can't reach consensus on whether to believe them or not and it is....a whole mess.
I'm gonna sleep on this though. will check back in on it in the morning.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Those are some pretty bold posts. To me, I could see justification for them if Kanye was inspector, or town faking as inspector.
Kanye has a pretty unusual playing style, and I could him making those posts if he was inspector. They're so bold that the mafia almost has to regard it as a joke with a lucky guess. I mean, who would say that if they were inspector? Some of the interactions between Kanye and JTR also make me think he was inspector:
Hunch I guess. Why have you tried to defend him twice now?
This post was made when Kanye had JTR's name, but LD had not self confirmed yet.
Reading back through D2, I can definitely see why Kanye was nervous he'd be the whack. He was actually coming at them pretty hard. So I guess his timing for the reveal does make sense to me.
I can also see the argument that Kanye was town, faking. I just don't think it's as likely.
Kanye is inspector: LD/JTR/? (Potent, Jaz, Rummy, Teddy, Travis, Dan) Kanye is town faking/JTR is inspector: LD/Dan/? (Jaz, Rummy, Travis) Kanye is mafia faking/JTR is inspector: LD/Kanye/? (Potent, Jaz, Rummy, Teddy, Travis)
I removed myself from those lists since I know I'm town. If you know you're town, just replace my name with yours since I'd be the unknown to you.
I've been staring at my screen, typing and erasing for way too long now.
I still think it's most likely Kanye was inspector. However, I won't rule out him faking as town, and JTR is inspector. I really don't think Kanye was mafia faking as inspector, it just doesn't make sense to me.
Either way, if we stone JTR today, we'll have two mafia dead heading into D3. Killing JTR also forces mafia to whack another townie.
Post by Cookin' Mama on May 27, 2020 6:28:55 GMT -5
I’m not convinced either Kanye or LD were mafia so I think there’s still two left. New guy doesn’t strike me as mafia though I could easily be wrong here. I’m think two sit in the Rummy/Rothric/Jaz group so I’ll vote for one from there.
Post by potentpotables on May 27, 2020 7:35:48 GMT -5
I'm thinking out loud here but I need to write this down:
- If JTR is inspector - Dan/???/???; Jortles doctor, Kanye ???, LD ???, Potent/Teddy town; Travisty/Jaz/Rummy/Rothric are the unknowns with one or two of them as mafia - If Kanye is inspector - LD/JTR/???; Dan probably town, Jortles doctor, Kanye inspector; Travisty/Teddy/Jaz/Rummy/Rothric are the unknowns to me.
The two things about Kanye as inspector that are bothering me are (1) his play on D1 straight out naming JTR and LD as mafia, but then voting a different way, and (2) his lackluster reveal.
I think I'm going to move my vote to see who does what here. In both of the scenarios above, the constant unknown is new guy (when factoring in I have opinions on Jaz/Rummy/Rothric from playing with them before).
Post by potentpotables on May 27, 2020 7:52:42 GMT -5
Jeremy Fragrance I think we need an extension to make sure that everyone has checked in to see the developments. I'll ask for noon at this point, but might ask for another into the afternoon if people don't check in.
Post by potentpotables on May 27, 2020 8:25:21 GMT -5
So much about Cookin' Mama's story doesn't add up. The only problem is that Kanye's story doesn't add up either. He comes out in his first post and says "JTR and LD" are mafia, votes for Teddy, is famously paranoid, and then makes it through the entire second day, waits for night, then announces he was inspector and JTR and LD are the names he can confirm.
I guess I need to take this piece by piece - RothricRummy 500JazTeddy Flairtravisty what is your take on LD's post saying "Yes I'm mafia"? It felt a direct response to me, responding to (I think) Rummy. I said that LD's "good luck as inspector with zero names" felt like a mafia response, and he said he was mafia in response. That's how I took it, but I can't figure out if he was joking or not.
