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Post by Silver Surfer on Jul 8, 2020 22:15:44 GMT -5
I mean the game could already be over right? I think the fact that it's still going means that either 1 mafia is dead or that 1 mafia member is in this runoff
Fine fine. My reading of the votes points more at you but I'm not like hardcore about it. Mostly choose you because Jortles was already up to 4 at the time. Maddawg makes some good points about Jortles as well.
As long as the town is at least following the whacks as best we can we have a shot.
D1R1 1. Carini > Theo 2. Dan > Teddy 3. King T > Danbob 4. Theo > Carini 5. Jortles > Teddy 6. Maddog > Jortles 7. Rummy > King T 8. Teddy > King T 9. SFA > Potent 10. Silver > Carini 11. Carini > Theo > Dan 12. Carini > Theo > Dan > Rummy 13. Potent > SFA 14. Carini > Theo > Dan > Rummy > King T 15. Carini > Theo > Dan > Rummy > King T > Teddy 16. Potent > SFA > Theo 17. Danbob > Teddy > Jortles 18. King T > Dan > Carini 19. Jortles > Theo > Tranter 20. Jortles > Theo > Tranter > Theo 21. Maddog > Jortles > Theo 22. Theo > Carini > Jortles 23. Potent > SFA > Theo > SFA
D1R2 24. Carini > Theo 25. SFA > Carini 26. Potent > King T
D1R3 27. Danbob > Theo 28. Theo > King T 29. King T > Carini > Theo 30. Theo > King T > Carini 31. Carini > Theo > King T 32. Jortles > Theo > Carini 33. Maddog > Theo > King T 34. King T > Theo > Carini 35. Danbob > Theo > King T
Can you speak to why? If don’t want to share anymore, that’s totally fine—but since I’m torn myself, hearing from you would be helpful
I feel like SFA has had good responses, and if Teddy is mafia, that kind of clears SFA in my book (FOR NOW).
why would teddy being mafia clear SFA? I may have missed something. Saying SFA has good responses is classic because its exactly what Im talking about with his overly eloquent rationalizations and it just works on so many people.
Post by Jake Jortles on Jul 9, 2020 6:19:38 GMT -5
I keep going back to two games. 1 is the one where me and potent were mafia together, but the more fun parallel is 117, my most embarrassing game ever.
1. Zolah and I were going for each others throats. If I was still that reactionary, that would have been me and Rummy this game.
2. Inspector was whacked early but we knew we were still in it on Day 3 with the 3 person runoff.
3. Final runoff came down to me and SFA and I finally noticed way too late that SFA was talking just the way he has this game. I had heat on me the whole game as usual.
4. Mafia was SFA / Kanye / Zig for an easy Day 3 win.
If SFA and Kanye, my top 2 reads right now both end up being mafia this game im gonna shit.
I feel like SFA has had good responses, and if Teddy is mafia, that kind of clears SFA in my book (FOR NOW).
why would teddy being mafia clear SFA? I may have missed something. Saying SFA has good responses is classic because its exactly what Im talking about with his overly eloquent rationalizations and it just works on so many people.
One thing that Kanye said a lot was that he thought Teddy was inspector and it implicates SFA as mafia. I’m kinda reverse logicing that to rationalize my town read on SFA, which also moves Kanye up in suspiciousness.
Post by Jeremy Fragrance on Jul 9, 2020 6:28:11 GMT -5
Look maybe Teddy wasn’t Dan’s given and it was actually Kanye. Would Dan says he’s a town read to throw them off? Some of his reads were definitely correct enough for mafia to notice.
why would teddy being mafia clear SFA? I may have missed something. Saying SFA has good responses is classic because its exactly what Im talking about with his overly eloquent rationalizations and it just works on so many people.
One thing that Kanye said a lot was that he thought Teddy was inspector and it implicates SFA as mafia. I’m kinda reverse logicing that to rationalize my town read on SFA, which also moves Kanye up in suspiciousness.
Not sure the reverse logic holds. Teddy, if inspector, had SFA high on his list which would make him likely for mafia. Teddy, as Mafia, would definitely put a mafia teammate near the top of a day 1 list without hesitation.
Post by potentpotables on Jul 9, 2020 7:13:32 GMT -5
I don't love that Kanye fell out. My idea runoff is Kanye vs. SFA. I don't know if I can make that happen though if Theo and Maddog are set on Jostles.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Jul 9, 2020 7:16:26 GMT -5
Teddy and me would be pretty shitty mafia partners. I would have had to have helped pushed him back into the day2a run-off for no reason*. Hell, I thought I was pushing him up to 3 votes. That might be a risk worth taking in certain situations for distancing or whatever. But I was contender to move forward in the runoff at the time as well.
Why would I do that?
Can't even believe we are discussing Teddy and me as potential mafia partners given the whack.
I don't love that Kanye fell out. My idea runoff is Kanye vs. SFA. I don't know if I can make that happen though if Theo and Maddog are set on Jostles.
Dan's whack points more to Jortles than me. What's ideal about taking him out of contention?
I don't love that Kanye fell out. My idea runoff is Kanye vs. SFA. I don't know if I can make that happen though if Theo and Maddog are set on Jostles.
Dan's whack points more to Jortles than me. What's ideal about taking him out of contention?
Gut feeling. I could easily be wrong. But, if you are mafia, my answer on this is likely one that irritates you - I know because I've been there before myself. And if you aren't mafia, well, I just look stupid, but I'm used to that.
I don't love that Kanye fell out. My idea runoff is Kanye vs. SFA. I don't know if I can make that happen though if Theo and Maddog are set on Jostles.
It has literally been happening all fucking game (Kanye falling out).
I know Jostles thinks I’m playing dumb and “jumping on him” incessantly, but...I switched my vote off him. I’m not trying to pick arguments with him at all. And at this point, I’d actually be more willing to shrug my shoulders and say “good game dude” if it turns out Jostles is playing us (since he’s provided some great insight the past couple pgs tbh) than if Forever Falling Out of Runoffs Kanye is.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Like, how am I the only person Voting for Kanye rn?!
Jostles, why don’t you join me there?
Through process of elimination, I’m becoming pretty damn confident that SFA is Mafia. Of course I want a final runoff between those two. Then you will all get to see that we will still be in the game. It wont end after I drop out. Of course it could still mean that one of the three exiles was mafia, but honestly even if thats the case I still think one or both of them is Mafia.
Also if I move to Kanye Im set up for a straight lynch at this moment and if I get lynched there is a chance Town loses.
Like, how am I the only person Voting for Kanye rn?!
Jostles, why don’t you join me there?
Kanye isn't the one distracting from the whack and pushing for me. So I can give him some space in that situation.
It seems certain there is mafia between Kanye/Jortles. There's likely one mafia dead and the town probably ends up voting both of them off. I don't really care which goes first.
Dan's whack points more to Jortles than me. What's ideal about taking him out of contention?
Gut feeling. I could easily be wrong. But, if you are mafia, my answer on this is likely one that irritates you - I know because I've been there before myself. And if you aren't mafia, well, I just look stupid, but I'm used to that.
Why wouldn't this irritate me as town?
Do we really need another runoff? Just freaking vote one of us off. This whole game has just been spinning in circles.
Like, how am I the only person Voting for Kanye rn?!
Jostles, why don’t you join me there?
Kanye isn't the one distracting from the whack and pushing for me. So I can give him some space in that situation.
It seems certain there is mafia between Kanye/Jortles. There's likely one mafia dead and the town probably ends up voting both of them off. I don't really care which goes first.
Or vote me off first. Whatever.
Im sorry but if the whack points to Teddy then thats all we really need to know about the whack. I dont think Dan goes to his grave with two names. Totally understand if you dont think the whack points to Teddy, but the way Im reading it is completely fair.
Kanye isn't the one distracting from the whack and pushing for me. So I can give him some space in that situation.
It seems certain there is mafia between Kanye/Jortles. There's likely one mafia dead and the town probably ends up voting both of them off. I don't really care which goes first.
Or vote me off first. Whatever.
Im sorry but if the whack points to Teddy then thats all we really need to know about the whack. I dont think Dan goes to his grave with two names. Totally understand if you dont think the whack points to Teddy, but the way Im reading it is completely fair.
I'm not denying it can point to him but I think it's much more of a stretch. It also doesn't really vibe that Teddy was mafia but, as I've already said, I've never played with him. He just seemed eccentric and a little all over the place to me. Didn't really get much feeling from Dan on him either. I'd also say tying me and Teddy as mafia together is just kind a silly when you look at the timing. Which I pointed out above.
I didn't say Dan had two names. From his gameplay it would seem clear he didn't. My point was more that the town usually ends up whittling down suspects based on whacks, etc. So it stands to reason you two will both be on the chopping block in the future. Looks like I am as well.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal
Bleary-Eyed Bonnawook Globlist Facist Slave Dog
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Jul 9, 2020 8:18:36 GMT -5
Jake Jortles Let me go into a little more detail on why the Teddy theory doesn't hold for me. Didn't mean to just blow you off. About to head out the door. You can then tell me which way you are seeing it because maybe I missed it.
I don't see Dan having Teddy's name not only because of the sudden kill shot to get rid of him. If Dan had his name he had the chance to watch another runoff with Teddy in it to look for more mafia activity. Not only did he not do that, he blew it off as not necessary. That just seems like something an inspector wouldn't do.
Of course, that doesn't mean the mafia still didn't read Dan's move as inspector with Teddy. But Teddy and his potential partners also made no attempt to save him from what would have been a situation where vote switches would have been justified.
It just seems like a real stretch to me.
Okay, off to work and to my covid test. Wish me luck. lol(Don't worry. I think I'm fine. Just want to make sure I'm not asymptomatic and spreading it)
Post by Jake Jortles on Jul 9, 2020 8:46:56 GMT -5
ok fuck... guys my excitement for this game has turned up a notch with the news that this game isn't over yet. Town actually does have a shot to win right now even if there are 3 mafia remaining. I just want to lay out the roadmap real quick. It would be an epic fucking win, but it is certainly possible. This is what would have to happen.
1. Narrow this runoff to SFA / Kanye. You would all know what I currently know: the game would continue. One of Kanye / SFA / Carini / Teddy / Tranter is guaranteed mafia.
2. If there are 3 mafia left, we would have to make the correct decision between SFA and Kanye. This is actually going to be difficult. However I do think there is a shot that they are both maf, but whatever. If we got to this point I would expect Townies to do a deeper dive to really make sure they made the right decision.
3. I'm really hoping to see this part happen.
How to play a blind day 4
If you guys exile me and the game continues, I really hope that the townies employ this strategy. This is only useful during a blind day 4 as opposed to one where you've had a reveal and more information to go off of.
Theo gets whack obviously.
You want to play with the intention of only making it to day 5 while playing as if there are TWO mafia remaining. So instead of going with the individual who you are slightly most suspicious of, you want to eliminate as many pairings as possible. This is a much easier process on Day 4 than on day three because there only be 4 other people besides you. So in effort to make it to day 5, you want to look at every possible pairing (only fucking 6 possible pairings!) and try to eliminate 5 of them using whatever works best for you. Potent would use vote patterns. I would try to find little things like "wow, would two mafia members really come to the defense of this person 4 minutes apart after the whack?" Or you can find the pairing that you'd be least likely to applaud post game if you want.
I believe that by trying to catch the duo as opposed to an individual, you increase your chances of snagging an individual and making it to Day 5. Of course, if the first round ends and the game isn't over, you know you have another hurdle to clear where you need to make that final correct decision. Or you may actually have both of them in there.
One of my general fears about SFA this game: I can't eliminate him being a duo with any other player. Kanye and Maddog would help me eliminate quite a few combos. I think it would be doubtful for rummy to be with me, maddog or kanye.
I just really hope to see the townies try playing like this on day 4 if Im not there. I really think finding the duo that you can't find any reason to rule out is your most likely shot of narrowing down to two people and knowing there is mafia between them.
4. And then there is day 5... where we always lose anyways.
Post by Jake Jortles on Jul 9, 2020 9:02:11 GMT -5
I'm going to try to slip out of this runoff. Im aware that getting out of a runoff is something that automatically makes everyone suspicious, but sorry I know that it makes Town more likely to win if this goes to SFA / Kanye, and slipping out of 3 runoffs as a Townie should be fucking applauded post game.
I believe that by trying to catch the duo as opposed to an individual, you increase your chances of snagging an individual and making it to Day 5. Of course, if the first round ends and the game isn't over, you know you have another hurdle to clear where you need to make that final correct decision. Or you may actually have both of them in there.
I've actually been utilizing this process of elimination strategy a bit already today, and is a significant factor to why I'm on the Kanye Must Go train now.
Between you (jostles), Kanye, and SFA, I find the least probable pairing to be SFA/Jostles. The most likely seems SFA/Kanye, but Kanye/Jostles is possible as well.
If in my eyes Kanye is more likely to be Maf with *either* other potential candidate here than they are with each other (SFA/Jostles), then it feels like a no brainer to give him the boot.
I'm glad you brought this up because it has already been a thing churning in my brain but wasn't sure if others would be on board with the strategy
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Post by potentpotables on Jul 9, 2020 9:12:33 GMT -5
I think your strategy makes sense, Jake Jortles. One thing - you keep saying that we know the game is continuing so we have a mafia somewhere, are you assuming that someone would tell us if it was impossible for the town to win? I haven't read the rules this game, so I don't know if there is a change, but I proposed in the past that the game should end as soon as it is impossible for town to win (so if there were 3 mafia left and none in the runoff now, like you are suggesting) and it was roundly shot down (and - I'm not bitter about this, at all, read the sarcasm - it was shot down because "someone could miss a vote").
