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If you wanna see a really long post about how Mafia is absolutely Tranter / SFA / Rummy i can post it spoilered for fun. Had it locked and loaded for the morning.
Oh I do want to see it. I do.
I’d p much entirely back off you tho dude. Haha why did you think I was the third? #trustissues?
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
there was just enough there for me that it made more sense than potent, but less than the other three so if i were to 180 off jortles/kanye that would just be where i went. felt ok about potent.
If you wanna see a really long post about how Mafia is absolutely Tranter / SFA / Rummy i can post it spoilered for fun. Had it locked and loaded for the morning.
Oh I do want to see it. I do.
I’d p much entirely back off you tho dude. Haha why did you think I was the third? #trustissues?
seriously im about to post my long post Gimmie a sec
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Why does everything fun happen when I’m sleeping?!?!?
Dan > King T
I have a slight town read on Carini, and T has made some questionable moves imo
Need to note that neither Rummy or SFA were particularly moved by Dan's vote off of Tranter. They couldn't be seen being mad about their teammate being exiled aggressively like that. Hold this thought for later.
Everyone is at a standstill. I don't really have much reason to be on SFA rn, he isn't rubbing me in particularly sus ways. Teddy has had some fluff posts that, conversely, did.
Rummy breaks a stand still by switching off of SFA and on to Teddy. This is at a time where both her and SFA were in a 4 way runoff just after their teammate Tranter got Day 1 lynched - not a great position. Plus we had two lynches in a row so she needed to do what she could to prevent that.
Still working on my recap, but I'm gonna go ahead and change my vote to expand the runoff. I understand your first comment now, but still think that anyone who is almost exclusively defending themselves is super suspicious.
Teddy > Jortles > SFA
Teddy evens it up to 3 a piece between Rummy, Teddy, SFA!
That Teddy exile was risky, Dan. He looked like he had a role to me, but if that role was inspector, we just lost for sure.
I agree, though I know the couple times I’ve been inspector, if I’m in a runoff towards the end like that I get real paranoid about a late round switch & will make sure to check in before deadline. Him not doing so/being chill about it makes me feel like maybe he was just vanilla town. I don’t think he was mafia—one of his team members would’ve drawn his attention to the sudden exile move before the round ended.
Ugh. Come on Dan. What was that?
Rummy>DannyB
Remember how Rummy was quiet when Dan did his move on D1? Now that Dan, one of their main leads for Inspector, made this mistake that actually worked in their favor but killed a Townie, it really works for Mafia to now be upset with Dan in public about a move they were very excited about in private.
Teddy was my inspector read though is do with that what you will
I feel a bit guilty now that I switched off SFA onto Teddy, but like...I just wanted the dude in a run off. Not to be straight exiled before most people had even seen Dan's late round move. Bleh.
And I don't think it is a bad read (you thinking he was Inspector). I just wonder if he would've been so transparent with his lengthy notes like that if he was? Seems like a good way to draw the whack onto him, if he was taking notes that aligned with the contextual info of his given name
This is Rummy's tell. Sometimes she talks about her own move before she does it and sometimes she laments about a move she made previously. She did both with King T the last time they were Mafia together. I've called her on the wind up, so she doesn't do that anymore, but this is such a weird fucking note. Like, Rummy, nobody gave a fuck about your switch from a while back that was one of many that caused Teddy to get lynched. And CLEARLY DAN was to blame for Teddys death, so why again would you need to feel bad? Oh... because it was a big deal? It was you attempting to save your mafia teammate.
No problem, though a surprised Pikachu meme would be appropriate here. Y'all had three days to request for the deadline to be pushed back. I'm not a fan of early deadlines either but with the round being as long as it was, I figured there was time for you guys to figure your shit out.
But then again, I can't read or count at all this game apparently so I don't have much room to talk haha.
Dude, I ain't blaming you for Danny's weird ass move haha. Neither you nor the rest of us could've predicted that (unless he's Mafia, in which case his team obviously could). But it is upon reflection of "well, sometimes weird shit like that happens late round, so having 9 or 10 am deadlines is probably better to give more people time to wake up and check in before it ends."
Not sure I've seen a strait vote off like that outside of rounds with known mafia. Really wild in a round with so much discussion on how to proceed.
To be honest I've been confused by the tone of some of the discussion surrounding creating runoffs, etc. just didn't seem like we were all on the same page. I noticed someone talk like Dan needed to vote after I got put back in but didn't realize this would be the outcome.
We could have used the extra info from another runoff later?
That's all just more of them pretending to be mad Dans move when really this is them venting their anger at his previous move that killed Tranter. They just knew it was safe to vent now since Teddy was Town.
Finally, it should be of note that Rummy BARELY, if ever, mentioned that the Dan whack implicated SFA almost just as much as Kanye and I. She became quickly certain that it just had to be one of me and kanye, but never truly considered SFA. And while she was willing to pretend that I shifted her from myself to Kanye, she would never at any point have considered SFA in this current runoff. Dan pointed to SFA a fuckload. Asked for me and SFA to be put in runoffs over and over. Rummy didn't care about that.
The reason I put Potent in Purple is because he's my thought if it isn't Rummy. But I have a town read on potent because of his combination routine and because he helped put SFA into serious danger on multiple occasions when they would have been one mafia down. This day was absolutely headed towards me and Kanye, and Potent was the reason SFA got added to the mix.
I would kill SFA now. Rummy on Day 4. I think the game would end, but if it didn't the final three would be Me, Kanye and Potent. I may just off myself in real life in that situation, but I think I'd come around to killing Kanye after second guessing everything I just laid out here.
Could've at least tried to argue out of it. Very least, wait till it's you being exiled for sure.
Because basically you're now banking on one of T or Carini being mafia. Which might be true but even then, we won't know and mafia is at full strength rn and will probably not vote for their own in this scenario. Especially now that doctor is outed.
Most likely though is that they're both town and we lose our doctor for nothing
Basically the main person in thread right after the reveal and working it out in his head whether it was a good move or not. This could have very easily been done by mafia. I only bring it up in case anyone sees anything else. I like it as a moment so soon after the reveal that nothing could have been gameplanned in mafia chat as it was happening. But I dont think an opinion on a doc reveal is a big enough deal to where Silver wouldnt hesitate to react instantly.
No reason not to at this point. Don’t think we are getting more out of the round with a doc reveal. I’m more interested to see how the night goes.
I find this one to be very interesting to think about. When Dan put Tranter in lynch position and Kanye responds in hype fashion. If Kanye is Mafia with Tranter, I don't think he's hyped. If he's mafia and Tranter is Town, I don't know if he wants to be seen celebrating the expedited death of a Townie. The we get Dans reply to Kanye within one minute. If Dan had Kanye's name, I don't know if we get this response in one minute. I think Dan may experience some concern with his given name being this pumped about his decision. Again, I'm operating under the assumption that Dan doesn't die with knowledge of 2/3 of the mafia. He wouldn't have learned Kanye is Mafia with his guess, so he would have had to already know here.
My guess is Mafia was kicking back. And I usually don't say that before someone points out that "we" say that every game. Ideal runoff would be Potent / Dan / Kanye. That grouping is usually the collective life of our games and imo they have all taken a noticeable step back. Haven't looked at post count but I just don't feel their presence as much. Can't say I have a decent grasp on anything this game. My two reads were Tranter as Town and Theo as Mafia. So I'm definitely open to ideas.
Some good points here. Potent is definitely suspicious to me.
Kanye has taken a step back this game but honestly I don’t know if I’m reading it as mafia (could be wrong but I view him more as an unknown).
As for me, I’ve lowered my post count in the past couple games so I don’t think that should be a point against me.
Going to do a reread and see where I want to place my vote.
Just more evidence of Dan pointing away from Kanye.
So this is Kanye's reaction to Jaz's write up of the whack / Doc save. It was done quickly after the announcement. If Kanye was Mafia, he would have certainly been aware of who the whack was. As always. he could have faked this, but Im thinking this would be a very strong mafia move to blend in.
I actually do want to hear from Teddy just because I think he is specifically likely to slip up, but in general we dont have a choice. These next two exiles are blind again.
That’s funny considering teddy was the original person I was calling out
Why did you answer a question I specifically posed to Teddy?
Because you asked what other conclusion could be gathered and I gave one I thought of
Would Kanye answer for Teddy like this as his teammate? Seems pretty fucking dumb if so. Im becoming sold on Teddy being mafia, and therefore this helps me think Kanye may not be.
I am actually really worried about this position. Were probably gonna lose 3 random townies in the span of 1 day.
Let's assume there are 3 mafia alive. Right now we have 7 townies. We'll probably exile two townies. And then they'll whack another random person since Teddy is already confirmed doctor. Mafia will only have to guess who inspector is in a group of 4. Which honestly they probably will do. It is kinda easy to guess who inspector is at that point. Or at the very least, who isn't inspector.
I've been duped so many time by this type of shit before, but right at the moment Kanye said this, I was really thinking this shit too.
No - it's the "this is usually a proven tactic in getting a mafia person and nobody has used it yet, and if y'all exile me you're going to need as much help as possible" tactic. I understand that you are suspicious of me (for nebulous reasons, but whatever), but it would help if you kept an open mind and considered that your read on me *might* be wrong.
Dude I'm not even voting for you lmao
These two posts make me want to eliminate Kanye with potent or sfa. I originally though the Potent / Kanye battle may be staged, but I think if you stage something that big, you also vote against potent there from the beginning of the argument.
I'm also suspicious of SFA. When I was mafia with him he stressed the importance of finding out who inspector was by looking at votes. There wasn't much switching and no super interesting votes in general. I think it makes sense for mafia SFA to not even attempt to try to find inspector since no one really attacked him and also he probably didnt really find anything to grab at.
Then probably Rummy, Maddog, Danbob in that order.
This is all pretty illogical
1. Literally all mafia look for how people vote to find inspector.... but also to narrow down suspects based on timing/known info an inspector would know. To clarify, this doesn't just mean who a suspected inspector voted for. So claiming the exact events of this game could point to me based on something that banal is a pretty bad argument.
2. I have the PM conversation from both our games together saved but I'm pretty sure I can't post screengrabs. But if I remember I've went into pretty fine detail about the actions and words of everyone. It's how we had it narrowed down to a couple of choices in the first game. The second game wasn't as active but we still had the actually inspector in our top suspects. Point being there was much more to us, and me specifically, looking for mafia in those games. To cherry pick one little detail of the paragraphs I wrote in those PMs and use it to tie me to completely unrelated and unknowable events is fairly wrongheaded.
3. The first person we whacked in that first game had like 4 posts. Nothing super interesting he did besides the timing lead us to him. We thought he had your name and he actually voted to help you at one point. So again, it was much more complicated and nuanced than your suggesting in your attempt to tie me to mafia's night decision in a completely unrelated game.
4. "No one really attacked him" could apply to the majority of players. You also present this like mafia isn't a group of 3 people who all would be on the lookout for their name being brought up, etc. How you come to the conclusion that this applies more to me I don't really understand.
Basically this is all grasping at straws and it's frankly kinda suspicious. I've already said the mafia probably didn't have much to go off of. So agree with you there. What I don't agree with is this conspiracy theory logic of working backwards to fit some conclusion you're looking for. Especially when you're talking points apply pretty equally to everyone.
I've got some things going on in my life right now and I just haven't had the time/will to concentrate on this the last couple days. But looking over things I don't really have much suspicion as of yet. I do agree, as I've mentioned, that several players are acting very different. However, I haven't played in a good while so I'm not sure if that's an organic development or not. I've admittedly been pretty lowkey so far as well, so I don't have much room to talk.
After this weird post I feel pretty good just retaliating.
This is a response I think brings the game to a higher level. I genuinely think this is a very good response to my suspicions of you and understand why you'd vote for me, but I am town
On my reread I don’t know if my potent suspicions were 100% warranted, but I agree with some people who are saying SFA. I thought his reasoning for his carini was weak.
Hey rummy, Potent just put me in a position to be exiled without a runoff. Now is your chance to actually vote for someone you think is suspicious!
As Mafia, how much mud is it smart to fling. It would be a great bit for Kanye to piss off this many people. The problem is, he WOULD be the one to do it, so I don't want to use this alone.
5) During the Night, the Mafia decide on the player they want to eliminate (whack), and inform the Referee via PM. Mafia must submit a whack and are subject to a role reveal of the most recent lynch if they fail to submit a name before the deadline.
I stand corrected. Somehow I didn't remember that we changed that rule, which I know is going to make people suspicious of me even more, so we should probably get on with my exile.
What I was recalling was the game I reffed - 123? - where Jaz was mafia, first doctor game, and I think you and Rummy were his teammates, and you discussed not submitting a whack but I felt like you had to.
This kinda closed the door on Kanye + Potent for me. Figuring out this argument and Potent conceding in thread. Its too much. Its too beautiful if they are together. Proud of you boys if I'm wrong about this.
I mean that not in a suspicious sense but wondering what your game plan was
I really think this is Dan being sure to not have Kanye viewed as his given, because he wasn't.
One of my biggest takeaways here is that when I do these read-throughs, Im looking for things that look unplanned, raw or just purely unique to someone with no information like a vanilla Towny. You may notice that I found almost nothing that feel into that category so far within 15 pages. I will pick this up in a bit, but he's just played to calculated and too carefully.
well, i would say that you could explain your vote during your vote. instead of a 5 post string of vote > 'care to explain' > 'no' > really? > 'ok'.
just lay out the votes. hold off on random notes and stream of thought. be more concise, keep the random chatter/jokes/memes (sorry ted) minimum to none.
Post by Jake Jortles on Jul 9, 2020 23:03:09 GMT -5
First one was why Rummy was the Third. Second spoilered post was why Kanye was not Mafia and SFA was. Had to hold onto my SFA > Kanye preference until I was out of the runoff because a couple of you would have thought we were on a team together.
man that was wild. ill be pretty tied up through tuesday so ill probably be out on the next one unless it takes a while, or is a massive number person game
King T - 5 (Rummy, Teddy, Potent, Carini, Maddog) Carini - 5 (Kanye, SFA, Theo, Jortles, King T) Theo - 1 (Danbob)
Left To Vote
Vote History
D1R1 1. Carini > Theo 2. Dan > Teddy 3. King T > Danbob 4. Theo > Carini 5. Jortles > Teddy 6. Maddog > Jortles 7. Rummy > King T 8. Teddy > King T 9. SFA > Potent 10. Kanye > Carini 11. Carini > Theo > Dan 12. Carini > Theo > Dan > Rummy 13. Potent > SFA 14. Carini > Theo > Dan > Rummy > King T 15. Carini > Theo > Dan > Rummy > King T > Teddy 16. Potent > SFA > Theo 17. Danbob > Teddy > Jortles 18. King T > Dan > carini 19. Jortles > Theo > Tranter 20. Jortles > Theo > Tranter > Theo 21. Maddog > Jortles > Theo 22. Theo > Carini > Jortles 23. Potent > SFA > Theo > SFA
D1R2 24. Carini > Theo 25. SFA > Carini 26. Potent > King T
D1R3 27. Danbob > Theo 28. Theo > King T 29. King T > Carini > Theo 30. Theo > King T > Carini 31. Carini > Theo > King T 32. Jortles > Theo > Carini 33. Maddog > Theo > King T 34. King T > Theo > Carini
Day One, Round Three will end Wednesday, July 1, at 11am ET.
Tally right before doc reveal for those interested.
To start: There is the obvious. Dan killed Tranter in a fairly aggressive fashion after knowing that he wouldn't be whacked during the night due to the Doctor reveal.
Not that Dan made sure to post the tally from pre doctor reveal. This must be important.
The people not voting to kill his given name before the reveal were Jortles, Kanye, SFA, Maddog, Carini (dan and tranter)
After the Doctor reveal, the people not voting to kill his given name were Jortles, Kanye, SFA (Theo, Tranter).
These three bold names look familiar? Dan continuously suggested that Me or Kanye or Me or SFA were the correct duos to throw in the runoff throughout the following two rounds (evidence below).
Dan also continuously said that Carini and Maddog were his two biggest Town reads. Why? Because Carini was up against Tranter in the final round here, and I believe Danbob said to himself "no way we got two mafia in the finals on day 1." Maddog is a little more interesting. Maddog was voting for someone other than Tranter originally, but then moved to Tranter. I'm going in circles on this and will need help from someone, but I'm thinking its possible that he guessed Maddog after Night one and learned that Maddog was Town.
So just remember the positioning of Me, Kanye, SFA voting to kill carini instead of Tranter all the way through the final portion of that round.
On my reread I don’t know if my potent suspicions were 100% warranted, but I agree with some people who are saying SFA. I thought his reasoning for his carini was weak.
Yeah mad dog and Carini are my two biggest town reads right now so it may be possible. This would be all mafia are in the current runoff correct? Def would explain how this round has gone.
I still need help here. I'm wondering if when MD switched to Tranter on day one it clearly looked like something a mafia teammate wouldnt do? He either saw something extremely townish from MD in relation to king t or he guessed him and knew he was town. I need to look again, but I think he chose to kill Teddy over SFA here, which is completely throwing me off.
After a reread I'm still on the kanye or jortles train. Potent is reading slightly town for me. I think the biggest thing that changed for me in the reread is that I'm probably rating kanye more sus than jortles as of now.
Dan > Kanye
Ok so dan did a reread and found me to be slightly more townish than Kanye
Can't understand why kanye was so hyped that I ended day 1 without waiting for the round to close then comes at me when I ended the night round without waiting. He did end up saying I was less sus after some talking but I'm wondering what was different between the two days
This is very interesting. This is why Dan was originally more confident in Kanye being Town. And I actually made a huge note about this in my current read through. Kanye pretty quickly celebrated when Dan moved to kill T straight off. He is saying that that didn't look like a post that a Mafia teammate would make. I actually really agree here.
Because only knowing my own role the way the votes currently lay this is my best chance for survival. Otherwise I have them pretty much equal in how suspect I am of them
Yeah this game is fucking with my head because it feels like I’m at a complete opposite of where a lot of people are in their suspicions. Still haven’t heard a real case for mad dog, and Carini, while quiet, doesn’t scream mafia to me.
Lookie here. More MD and Carini love. Wanted Kanye in.
Dan voted to kill Carini, I think, because while he was his second biggest Town read, he know that Maddog was confirmed Town where Carini was only based on the strong idea that Mafia would not have allowed both Carini and Tranter into the same runoff.
I'm just gonna fucking brag like always... this post is probably the thing I'm most proud of ever doing in this game. Most of my other good moves came when I had a role. Even though SFA eventually conceded and this maybe wasnt necessary, I'm am feeling so much joy that this was spot on as a vanilla townie.
Kinda easy to do when everyone is attacking me lol
I get that, i would say it was more of how you handled it that got me sus. I thought your change of play style may have been the you were T’s mafia buddy and realized you were already down one.
To start: There is the obvious. Dan killed Tranter in a fairly aggressive fashion after knowing that he wouldn't be whacked during the night due to the Doctor reveal.
Not that Dan made sure to post the tally from pre doctor reveal. This must be important.
The people not voting to kill his given name before the reveal were Jortles, Kanye, SFA, Maddog, Carini (dan and tranter)
After the Doctor reveal, the people not voting to kill his given name were Jortles, Kanye, SFA (Theo, Tranter).
These three bold names look familiar? Dan continuously suggested that Me or Kanye or Me or SFA were the correct duos to throw in the runoff throughout the following two rounds (evidence below).
Dan also continuously said that Carini and Maddog were his two biggest Town reads. Why? Because Carini was up against Tranter in the final round here, and I believe Danbob said to himself "no way we got two mafia in the finals on day 1." Maddog is a little more interesting. Maddog was voting for someone other than Tranter originally, but then moved to Tranter. I'm going in circles on this and will need help from someone, but I'm thinking its possible that he guessed Maddog after Night one and learned that Maddog was Town.
So just remember the positioning of Me, Kanye, SFA voting to kill carini instead of Tranter all the way through the final portion of that round.
SFA
Note: There is a reason he is initially leaning Me and SFA over Kanye that comes up in a second.
SFA and Jortles
Originally not suspicious
Look at Dan wanting me to expand on Tranter being Mafia
Jortles SFA
SFA
Teddy is the part of the story that really doesn't add up for me. Teddy did vote to kill tranter all the way through.
Behind MD against me and Kanye
Asking a carini voter to talk about another carini voter
Me
Still leaning in favor of Silver being town. I think this is gut here because it can't all be about vote splits.
The Math from the King T runoff
Don't go too hard in that direction to spoil the inspector role
MD and Carini as town
Something happens and he becomes less certain of Kanye
I still need help here. I'm wondering if when MD switched to Tranter on day one it clearly looked like something a mafia teammate wouldnt do? He either saw something extremely townish from MD in relation to king t or he guessed him and knew he was town. I need to look again, but I think he chose to kill Teddy over SFA here, which is completely throwing me off.
Me and Kanye right after the lynch of Teddy
Kanye and Jortles
Ok so dan did a reread and found me to be slightly more townish than Kanye
Make sure to bring up SFA
This is very interesting. This is why Dan was originally more confident in Kanye being Town. And I actually made a huge note about this in my current read through. Kanye pretty quickly celebrated when Dan moved to kill T straight off. He is saying that that didn't look like a post that a Mafia teammate would make. I actually really agree here.
Dan thinks MD is so Town that ppl voting for him that also voted carini are maf.
DAN TELLING ME THAT THE GAME IS NOT LOST FOR TOWN. WE'VE GOT A MAFIA DOWN.
Maddog is town.
Dan frustrated that Kanye fell out and MD went forward. Literally the opposite of what dan wanted.
Lookie here. More MD and Carini love. Wanted Kanye in.
Kanye and Me
Probably doesn't mind seeing SFA make a choice... but he knows these are his two biggest town reads.
Dan voted to kill Carini, I think, because while he was his second biggest Town read, he know that Maddog was confirmed Town where Carini was only based on the strong idea that Mafia would not have allowed both Carini and Tranter into the same runoff.
I'm just gonna fucking brag like always... this post is probably the thing I'm most proud of ever doing in this game. Most of my other good moves came when I had a role. Even though SFA eventually conceded and this maybe wasnt necessary, I'm am feeling so much joy that this was spot on as a vanilla townie.
