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So potent was the one that asked inspector and oracle to come out and repeatedly wants us to kill a known townie. That's pretty sus.
Jaz hasn't said anything. That's pretty sus
To be clear - I think that's the way we take control away from mafia. They determine whacks so they'll keep those alive that help them most. Tranter dying helps us because nobody knows his name, so it introduces a variable of chaos. But I'm also willing to admit I've never played with an oracle and not sure it's best utility for the town.
There are two Mafia in the six unknowns (look I didn't list myself as town this time like I usually do - I hope you're all proud of me). If we exile Tranter, we will receive the role of his guess, which is a 33% chance of being Mafia, and then we start D4 down two townies (Tranter and the whack). It'd be do-or-die for the next two rounds.
If we exile an unknown who is town and force the Mafia to whack Tranter, he'll have a 40% chance of getting Mafia with his guess (because one of the six unknowns was exiled, reducing the pool to five). Then we still start D4 down two townies with it being do-or-die for the next two rounds.
If we exile an unknown who is Mafia and force the Mafia to whack Tranter, he'll have a 20% chance of getting Mafia, but even if he doesn't then we have two rounds to try - that combined with the info from his guess puts us in a pretty good position imo.
As far as I can tell the first two scenarios are pretty much the same, but not exiling Tranter gives us slightly better odds of him guessing a townie. I think keeping Tranter alive is the way to go if we think the Mafia is gonna whack Tranter.
So I guess the question is really if they don't whack him - does it make more sense to have a known townie alive on D5 but not getting the Oracle guess, or to exile him now to get his guess, only to have that guess be the N4 whack if the guess is town, making D5 a tossup (if we made it that far)? Knowing we could have a D5 with a known townie in it is a pretty strong position going into D3. I think I'd prefer that over the possibility of him guessing Mafia.
So in either case I think we shouldn't exile Tranter.
Well first, should Tranter tell us who he guessed? That would affect how we should look at exiling him
I don't think so. He can change it now and mafia not knowing is the thing in our favor.
I don't think he can change it until after the D3 exile, assuming he's not the one being exiled. Personally I think it makes more sense for him to keep it to himself, though I think him saying who he guess but having it be a lie would be a great way to mindfuck the Mafia for a change. It's not often anyone's in the position to send them useless down rabbit holes. Because then they'd have to guess whether or not he was REALLY lying, etc.
Post by Silver Surfer on Apr 14, 2021 18:35:24 GMT -5
I think killing Tranter just for the sake of using his power is like buying 2 boxes of cheezits cause it's buy 1 get 1 50% off. Like you could get a good deal on an extra box of cheezits but one box will be just fine
I think killing Tranter just for the sake of using his power is like buying 2 boxes of cheezits cause it's buy 1 get 1 50% off. Like you could get a good deal on an extra box of cheezits but one box will be just fine
There are two Mafia in the six unknowns (look I didn't list myself as town this time like I usually do - I hope you're all proud of me). If we exile Tranter, we will receive the role of his guess, which is a 33% chance of being Mafia, and then we start D4 down two townies (Tranter and the whack). It'd be do-or-die for the next two rounds.
If we exile an unknown who is town and force the Mafia to whack Tranter, he'll have a 40% chance of getting Mafia with his guess (because one of the six unknowns was exiled, reducing the pool to five). Then we still start D4 down two townies with it being do-or-die for the next two rounds.
If we exile an unknown who is Mafia and force the Mafia to whack Tranter, he'll have a 20% chance of getting Mafia, but even if he doesn't then we have two rounds to try - that combined with the info from his guess puts us in a pretty good position imo.
As far as I can tell the first two scenarios are pretty much the same, but not exiling Tranter gives us slightly better odds of him guessing a townie. I think keeping Tranter alive is the way to go if we think the Mafia is gonna whack Tranter.
So I guess the question is really if they don't whack him - does it make more sense to have a known townie alive on D5 but not getting the Oracle guess, or to exile him now to get his guess, only to have that guess be the N4 whack if the guess is town, making D5 a tossup (if we made it that far)? Knowing we could have a D5 with a known townie in it is a pretty strong position going into D3. I think I'd prefer that over the possibility of him guessing Mafia.
So in either case I think we shouldn't exile Tranter.
Nahh I just looked at the names list and couldn’t remember anything you said
prior to the thor hold up d1 was pretty standard, 4 people without votes up to that point...
tranter, bkb, kpo, Kanye
if we're not exiling tranter I'm probably looking at one of kpo/kanye
Rummy did defend KPO. Dont feel like finding the quote but KPO said something about being vanilla town and rummy said something like "yeah we should trust that"
Those who locked on BKB D1: Dan, Silver, KPO, Jortles, Tranter.
Jortles obviously is town, so look at Dan/Silver/KPO/Tranter.
I will say that the lock on BKB felt on brand for Tranter, a guy who likes to lock, so when shuffling through those four players, Tranter is lowest on my sus list.
I was very absent from the board while this was going on bc moving mayhem, but I did find it sorta weird how quickly people jumped on the locking, when it wasn’t going to take much time to wait for an auto exile.
Looking at your list above + those who didn’t have any votes d1,
Rum>Silv
Kpo also hits the mark on both categories there but the man did promise he’s vanilla town this time, so
I think it is fine to end the round this evening since it’ll just go to a run off at that point… but I would definitely be against exiling BKB just for his absence when the weekend hasn’t even ended yet—he might have been expecting a Monday start time.
I think killing Tranter just for the sake of using his power is like buying 2 boxes of cheezits cause it's buy 1 get 1 50% off. Like you could get a good deal on an extra box of cheezits but one box will be just fine
lmao I like this analogy
Me too. I know nothing about mafia, but I’ve definitely bought the extra box of cheese-its.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
