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Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Jortles hasn’t been the D1 exile in a minute anyway. Not like we should never put him in a D1 runoff ever again.
I don't think anyone's saying to never put him in it again but he was in the final runoff last game and the night 1 whack. I feel like it's okay to give him a break this game
Jortles hasn’t been the D1 exile in a minute anyway. Not like we should never put him in a D1 runoff ever again.
I don't think anyone's saying to never put him in it again but he was in the final runoff last game and the night 1 whack. I feel like it's okay to give him a break this game
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
trantsgiving
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I don't think anyone's saying to never put him in it again but he was in the final runoff last game and the night 1 whack. I feel like it's okay to give him a break this game
also what’s the post about? Got 2 clean revotes and Jortles. Nothing fundamentally terrible here.
I think it's stupid to have the same people in the runoffs every game. Jortles and Dan are holdovers from last game - Rummy and Otter are two others, and then me. That's all. I have been advocating for awhile for more randomness on D1. Nobody seems to agree, it's fine. But also there was a lot of silence when the runoff was set, which doesn't sit well with me. Odds say we do have a mafia person in there.
also what’s the post about? Got 2 clean revotes and Jortles. Nothing fundamentally terrible here.
I think it's stupid to have the same people in the runoffs every game. Jortles and Dan are holdovers from last game - Rummy and Otter are two others, and then me. That's all. I have been advocating for awhile for more randomness on D1. Nobody seems to agree, it's fine. But also there was a lot of silence when the runoff was set, which doesn't sit well with me. Odds say we do have a mafia person in there.
Quietness could also mean we have 2 maf here and they are just sitting back
I think it's stupid to have the same people in the runoffs every game. Jortles and Dan are holdovers from last game - Rummy and Otter are two others, and then me. That's all. I have been advocating for awhile for more randomness on D1. Nobody seems to agree, it's fine. But also there was a lot of silence when the runoff was set, which doesn't sit well with me. Odds say we do have a mafia person in there.
Quietness could also mean we have 2 maf here and they are just sitting back
I dont think quietness is really indicative of anything in particular. I definitely agree with potent re: the sameness of the day 1 runoffs which is why I thought it'd be interesting to try Jaz and also why I stacked on KPO
also what’s the post about? Got 2 clean revotes and Jortles. Nothing fundamentally terrible here.
I think it's stupid to have the same people in the runoffs every game. Jortles and Dan are holdovers from last game - Rummy and Otter are two others, and then me. That's all. I have been advocating for awhile for more randomness on D1. Nobody seems to agree, it's fine. But also there was a lot of silence when the runoff was set, which doesn't sit well with me. Odds say we do have a mafia person in there.
holdovers don't really matter to me. The assignments are random so I don't think it matters who we put in the runoff purely from a strategic view. We could spin a giant wheel and I wouldn't mind. I don't think there was silence but there were a few people on the "Save Jortles" campaign which is weird.
Quietness could also mean we have 2 maf here and they are just sitting back
I dont think quietness is really indicative of anything in particular. I definitely agree with potent re: the sameness of the day 1 runoffs which is why I thought it'd be interesting to try Jaz and also why I stacked on KPO
I agree, my point was just the quietness could mean anything
Quietness could also mean we have 2 maf here and they are just sitting back
I dont think quietness is really indicative of anything in particular. I definitely agree with potent re: the sameness of the day 1 runoffs which is why I thought it'd be interesting to try Jaz and also why I stacked on KPO
Rum>jaz
Let’s be real, I just placed my initial vote on Danny bc I’m bitter he’s begun to outsmart me when he’s mafia
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
I dont think quietness is really indicative of anything in particular. I definitely agree with potent re: the sameness of the day 1 runoffs which is why I thought it'd be interesting to try Jaz and also why I stacked on KPO
Rum>jaz
Let’s be real, I just placed my initial vote on Danny bc I’m bitter he’s begun to outsmart me when he’s mafia
Dw I will make it up but absolutely crushing maf this game
Pretty sure Jortles was the D1 whack for the last two games. With how relatively arbitrary this exile is, I say we give him a break.
You could also make the argument that he's been a not mafia position for a few games and is bound to be maf sooner than later. I think the last time he was maf was my second time as inspector
Pretty sure Jortles was the D1 whack for the last two games. With how relatively arbitrary this exile is, I say we give him a break.
You could also make the argument that he's been a not mafia position for a few games and is bound to be maf sooner than later. I think the last time he was maf was my second time as inspector
Someone who has been mafia 18 games in a row is just as likely to be mafia in the 19th game as someone who's been town 18 games in a row.
Pretty sure Jortles was the D1 whack for the last two games. With how relatively arbitrary this exile is, I say we give him a break.
You could also make the argument that he's been a not mafia position for a few games and is bound to be maf sooner than later. I think the last time he was maf was my second time as inspector
Someone who has been mafia 18 games in a row is just as likely to be mafia in the 19th game as someone who's been town 18 games in a row.
While it is statistically independent variables at play for who gets what roles each game, the likelihood of being 3 of 11 a bunch of times in a row IS low. Just as the likelihood of being 1 of 11 (inspector) a bunch in a row is even lower.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
right no, i get that ^^ I got an A in AP Stats OKAY?! (lol but that was so many years ago, who is to say i recall much of it)
but the belief that something is less likely to occur in the future because it did or did not occur in the past is different from what im talking about--i'm pointing to the fact that it *is* statistically less likely that you will get a role a bunch of times in a row than it is you won't, even though each games' role division is statistically independent from that of past and future games.
Each game your likelihood of getting a role is 4 in 11, or 5 in 11 when playing with another role like Doc or Oracle. The likelihood of you hitting that 4 in 11, say, 5 times in a row is NOT merely 4 in 11 odds.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Post by potentpotables on Apr 26, 2021 14:18:27 GMT -5
Yes, everybody has the same chance at getting a role in any particular game. When looking at a single coin flip, the probability of heads is 1/2.
However, looking at a set of 10 games it would be unlikely to get mafia 10 in a row. It is statistically unlikely that you flip a coin and get heads 10 in a row.
Yes, everybody has the same chance at getting a role in any particular game. When looking at a single coin flip, the probability of heads is 1/2.
However, looking at a set of 10 games it would be unlikely to get mafia 10 in a row. It is statistically unlikely that you flip a coin and get heads 10 in a row.
you just explained this much more clearly/succinctly than my attempt haha, thank u
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
