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Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
carini12 let me throw it back to you - we have four mafia dead at a minimum. Who do you think is mafia out of the dead players? Was there anything in LLL's post that you'd disagree with? Do you think our chief suspects, of the dead, right now are SFA/Silver/Theo/Tranter/Jortles? Do you think there's any case to be made for any of the Alex/JR/Travisty trio? If you can tell me thoughts on that, maybe I can point out data that can lead you to someone other than me, at least (even though you're not voting for me right now).
Which LLL post? Don't have it in me to go through her stuff now.
My chief deaf suspects are Silver (obviously), SFA,Truvine, Tranter, Jortles.
Not saying I think he is town because like most players I have him in the unknown pile but I'm not convinced on Theo like everyone else seems to be.
I think Travisty is most likely the 1 if there is Mafia between him, JR, and Alex.
OK, so we are in agreement on 4 - Silver, SFA, Tranter, Jortles. I think Truevine is likely town. I find it hard to believe that a mafia would say something like he said about being coached by Dan. I think that was a stupid off the cuff comment he made that mafia seized upon. Also, I'm going to look at the D3 vote tally and how he got there. Looking at the first two rounds, it looks like he has all townies on him - JR technically is a mafia possibility, and Teddy is a LIVE mafia possibility, but I'm only looking for dead mafia votes at this point. Alex joins the rest on TV to put him into round 3.
As an aside, I want to point out one thing about D3R2 and the vote tally for that round. Here it is:
Jortles - 4 (Dan, Theo, Truevine, SFA)
Truevine - 4 (JR, Teddy, Ella, Alex)
Potent - 4 (LLL, Otter, Carini, Maddog)
Tranter - 4 (Rooloo, LD, Rummy, Pablo)
SFA - 3 (Potent, Travisty, Capn)
Otter - 2 (Tranter, Jortles)
I've bolded/redded every possible mafia here, even though JR/Alex/Travisty are by no means sure things. I did this to illustrate where the exiled players had their votes. If you wanted to use this against me, you absolutely could do that - both me and Tranter have no possible exiled mafia on them, and I've got 3 cleared townies voting for me (with LLL, a town lean, the fourth). Also, three cleared townies voting for Tranter. I guess my question would be do you really think it's possible that four of the six living mafia are in the runoff at this point? The odds would scream that is unlikely, so I think you can use this to clear me. I think this is another piece of evidence for why Truevine is town.
One other note on this runoff that I've been meaning to make. I think this is good evidence that Tranter and Jortles are both mafia. They are both voting for a confirmed townie here. Each of them is in the runoff. It's widely believed that if a mafia is in the runoff, it behooves them to make the runoff bigger. It's also widely acknowledged that more runoffs are better for town, due to more data. Note that neither Tranter nor Jortles here does what is in their interest, and also what is in the town's interest? The runoff goes from 6 to 4. Who wasn't advanced, that either of them could have easily advanced? Suspected/outed mafia SFA. So to believe Truevine and I are both mafia, you'd have to believe 5 out of the 6 members of this runoff are also 5 of the 5 (if Jaz is mafia) or 6 mafia members who are alive.
Here's the next runoff that day (same players bolded/redded):
Notably, the only possible mafia voting for Tranter (suspected maf) are me and Rummy. Use that if you want. Also notably, again Jortles (suspected maf) has the chance to move his vote in a sensible way, to Tranter (suspected maf). He doesn't. You don't either, because you are hung up on me, and Otter doesn't, and we don't know why. Regardless, it would have made sense for any of the three of you to move. This was the round where LLL missed a vote because she drunkenly made her vote null (from voting for me), so she also could have advanced Tranter, but was going pretty hard at me at this point (side note - it would have been easy for me to advocate as mafia for either you or LLL to be the whack at any point after D1, given the heat on me). This count to me is actually the best evidence we have that Tranter is mafia, and he stuck around way too long after this occurred (partially because of three straight rounds of auto exiles).
After this, obviously Truevine is exiled, Jortles is offed by the vig, Pablo is whacked. I think this is the most telling day, as far as vote data, that I can find.
This kinda feels like a day 4 in a normal game where everyone is still assuming there’s 2 maf left and people start going at each other under that assumption when really there’s only 1 left. Anyone thinking that we may have 5 dead?
This kinda feels like a day 4 in a normal game where everyone is still assuming there’s 2 maf left and people start going at each other under that assumption when really there’s only 1 left. Anyone thinking that we may have 5 dead?
It's certainly possible that 1 of the 3 auto exiles is mafia. It's certainly possible that Jaz was mafia. Combine that with the Silver/SFA/Truevine/Tranter/Jortles group, and yes, I think it's possible to have 5 dead, and even possible for six to be dead.
This kinda feels like a day 4 in a normal game where everyone is still assuming there’s 2 maf left and people start going at each other under that assumption when really there’s only 1 left. Anyone thinking that we may have 5 dead?
kinda yeah, seems possible one of the JR/Travis/Alex trio could've been maf. Still leaves two left though
I find it kinda weird how Theo was the unanimous vote off yesterday but today he’s barely mentioned as an exile who’s possibly maf
I think I've been clear, but maybe I haven't, that I find Theo more likely to be mafia than Truevine. As you may remember, though, I'm always skeptical about the concept of bussing. The way Theo laid down rubbed me the wrong way though, in a "good for town" sort of way, which is actually the right way.
I find it kinda weird how Theo was the unanimous vote off yesterday but today he’s barely mentioned as an exile who’s possibly maf
I think I've been clear, but maybe I haven't, that I find Theo more likely to be mafia than Truevine. As you may remember, though, I'm always skeptical about the concept of bussing. The way Theo laid down rubbed me the wrong way though, in a "good for town" sort of way, which is actually the right way.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Teddy Flair
Which Ditch Bridge Troll Doesn't Want This
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
v rude. 
