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Post by BonnarooDetective on Mar 4, 2008 19:05:03 GMT -5
clato said:
liguy said:
If there needs to be a re-count, it should be in NY. Sure she was going to win NY, but I was told that some parts (such as Harlem) didn't vote for Obama. I have a hard time believing that one. [/quote
Bill Clinton has his office in Harlem and goes there all the time and talks to people. He is very well liked in Harlem
Yes, but there are actually districts in Harlem (and other parts of NYC) where Obama received literally 0 votes. I know someone who voted for Obama in one of those districts where he received 0 votes, its very evident that something went wrong. It is not necessarily something malicious, these kind of things happen more often then you would like to think, and they are only picked up on if they are significant enough to effect the actual results.
As for the lateness of the Conventions, each Party has been holding them later because you can only spend so much before and after the Convention so if one party has a Convention 4 months before the general election and one 3 months before, the later one gets more $$$ per month at the end.
But now that everyone is opting out of public financing, this may stop.
Plus each Party likes to be last so as to get the last bump and maybe counter the previous ones issues and/or momentum.
BTW OH polls close in about 10 minutes so may be we'll have an idea there. Obama 1-0 so far tonight.
Post by BonnarooDetective on Mar 4, 2008 20:17:08 GMT -5
Most of these early returns are from the early voting, so they won't be a very good indicator of much. Clinton was expected to come in heavy on that end.
They've been fairly reliable this election season as far as results go. How accurate the Exit polls are remains to be seen (though right now they look about right - with 0% reporting)
Most of these early returns are from the early voting, so they won't be a very good indicator of much. Clinton was expected to come in heavy on that end.
Post by BonnarooDetective on Mar 4, 2008 21:25:29 GMT -5
I'm sure the gap will narrow in Ohio pretty significantly; none of the returns from the major cities are in yet. Texas is iffy, looks like Hillary held her ground with the Hispanic vote, so she could close the gap there.
Post by BonnarooDetective on Mar 4, 2008 21:36:00 GMT -5
If Hillary looses Texas, there's going to be a lot of pressure from within the party for her to drop out. PA isn't for 6 weeks, and they can't afford to keep shooting each other down while McCain walks around securing his base.
I think Obama's lookin good. Ohio is tightening up. Texas is really close, but the large city districts have yet to be counted, which will probably go largely for Obama. Also the caucases seem to go for Obama too.
Obama will certainly win the delegate count in TX but he REALLY needs to win the popular vote too or Hillary can claim momentum saying Obama is faultering now that the media is attacking him. I hope (and think) Ohio will tighten also.
If Ohio is single digits and Obama holds onto the popular vote in TX, I think it may be over. It will take Clinton a bit to realize it but it will be over.
Let's hope so
TX even at 49% (24% rep) OH 57-41 Clinton (51% rep)
Last Edit: Mar 4, 2008 22:42:32 GMT -5 by troo - Back to Top
Post by BonnarooDetective on Mar 4, 2008 22:44:47 GMT -5
Once Cincinnati and Cleveland come on we should have a better picture of Ohio . . . meanwhile in Texas, I agree that Obama is in good shape. Houston, Austin, and Dallas should push him over the edge, most of the rural stuff has been counted.
Post by famousblueraincoat on Mar 4, 2008 22:55:04 GMT -5
I think it doesn't matter whether she wins three or not. She is done. The margins are too close, and she'll never overcome her pledged delegate deficit. In some respects, I'm glad, because I'm sure this will re-energize Barack's base.