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The way I see it, more likely than not. I'm looking at the votes.
I know mafia stack up on players in the initial confusion. I see players joining up against both Handgun & Tara. The only people I suspect at this point to be Inspector are voting for Tara. Therefore, I think Tara is mafia - and, by extension, Higgi.
I'd rather see a run-off between two parties I think are guilty - Tara vs. Higgi - than see a run-off between someone I think is an innocent and someone I suspect as Mafia - RonBurgandy? vs. Tara. That's why I went with Higgi instead of Tara.
I'll suspect Fishingmaniac as mafia if this thread comes to include a gruesome, three-paragraph whack story.
For now, I have to keep my vote for Tara. A statement someone made while voting Tara seemed far more certain than any other vote cast this round. At this point, there's only four players who can be that certain about anyone's status - and three of them want to keep that fact hidden. It makes sense to me that the person making that statement with that degree of certitude would be our Inspector.
looks like tara? do you people know something i don't??
i vote tara. simply because i'm following the crowd.
Go back to Kdogg's post-- he has a theory about Tara being mafia. It's actually a really good theory, and I knew we were going the wrong direction with Ronburgandy?
I can't guarantee I know anything 100%, but I think I'm onto something.
I believe I see the mafia getting involved in vote piling - particularly in the case of Handgun vs. Tara. I first noticed this was going on when there were two votes against each of them. I figure the mafia was attempting to influence the early vote. The only people who received multiple votes in the early part of voting were Handgun, Tara and RonBurgandy?
Rooconteur initially voted for RonBurgandy?, but I think his voting record implies he's confused about this too - which probably makes him innocent. It doesn't guarantee that other mafia did not vote for RonBurgandy?, but believing one of his voters is innocent makes mafia collaboration less likely. Sadie, I should note that you had two votes against you in the final pre-runoff tally. I don't suspect mafia shenanigans in your case, because one of your multiple votes was Kelaroo reciprocating your own.
That left me two players with multiple votes for them to suspect the mafia was intervening on their behalf: Tara & Handgun
Two posts made me think, "Are you the Inspector?" and they were both against Tara. My two prime candidates for Inspector both voted for Tara. That tells me something.
Like I said, I could be wrong about this... but it is my read on the present situation.
I don't expect to live to see Round Three at the rate I'm going. I figure I need to blow this case open as wide as possible as soon as possible. I don't care if that makes me a lightning rod for the mob, because my whacking will prolong the lives of our pro-Townsperson role players... not to mention, probably signal that I'm on the right track.
and I knew we were going the wrong direction with Ronburgandy?
what tipped you off?
(you are correct by the way)
You talked far too much and didn't really say anything incriminating. Honestly, I thought what happened with you was that you got one vote, so people started to go with the crowd.. That's what usually happens first rounds.
Kdogg, hopefully you can make it through the next few rounds.. I have already stated that I think you need to stick around for the sake of us townspeople, because you're a smart player. I hope our Nurse is taking note.
I must admit, I re-tallied the votes for the ulterior motive of doing more commentary...
I'm not completely positive about Higgi as mafia. Especially after he was the third vote against Tara in a three-way run-off. That makes him look more innocent in my eyes, but it does nothing for Tara.
What I saw was the Inspector intervening against Tara, regardless of how the rest of the Mafia voted. It is quite possible that Higgi was innocent and unknowingly voting with a mafia. In my scenario, the Inspector isn't sure of Higgi's status either - they were just acting contrary to their one known mafia.
I have a concurrent/alternate theory that the mafia wanted RonBurgandy? dead, but Tara got sidetracked in reciprocal voting with Handgun and it fell through. It could be that Tara's in cahoots with the RonBurgandy? voters rather than Higgi. That would also explain why Handgun only received two votes when there are three mafia alive to influence the vote. I think Handgun would be an option in this run-off if that's what the mafia wanted.
Either way, I think the road to beating the Mafia begins with Tara.
At this point, I don't think we should be trusting anyone who voted for Handgun or RonBurgandy? in Day One, with the lone exception of Rooconteur.
My working list of suspects at this point (Inspector, please take note; Vigilante, you too): Tara Higgi Krizzeam NothingButFlowers Fishingmaniac (just to dignify his most-likely-facetious claims with acknowledgement)
Which makes this all the more curious:
Left to Vote: krizzeam Tara Fishing
It doesn't help that NBF waited until there was already a majority to vote against Tara, either.
I find it interesting to note that Tara voted for RonBurgandy?, who is in this run-off, during the first round of voting... Now that I suggest she's in cahoots with RonBurgandy? voters, she suddenly switches her vote to Higgi when she had the option of repeating her previous vote...
I think this enhances the credibility of my "Tara + RB? voters" alternate theory.
It doesn't help that NBF waited until there was already a majority to vote against Tara, either.
Except I didn't wait, I was working. By the time I got a chance to check in, Tara had a majority, so I went with the crowd because I still don't know what's going on.
As for me voting for RonBurgandy?, when I voted, it was 3 and 3, so I had to either vote for him or Tara. At the time, I didn't have any reason to suspect either one of them, so I just guessed.
Noted. I'm not saying you're definitely Mafia here. Just possibly in my eyes.
I'm leaning towards Higgi being innocent now, so at the moment I'm down to a list of four suspects for three Mafia. If what you're saying is indeed the case, that would make those three players left to vote look even more curious...
However, as I said, you shouldn't necessarily be trusted at this point. That doesn't imply you're guilty, just that I'm not buying your claims of innocence just yet.
Noted. I'm not saying you're definitely Mafia here. Just possibly in my eyes.
I'm leaning towards Higgi being innocent now, so at the moment I'm down to a list of four suspects for three Mafia. If what you're saying is indeed the case, that would make those three players left to vote look even more curious...
However, as I said, you shouldn't necessarily be trusted at this point. That doesn't imply you're guilty, just that I'm not buying your claims of innocence just yet.
Just curious as to why you think Higgi is now innoncent? What changed your thinking? I want to make sure I'm not missing anything.
Noted. I'm not saying you're definitely Mafia here. Just possibly in my eyes.
I'm leaning towards Higgi being innocent now, so at the moment I'm down to a list of four suspects for three Mafia. If what you're saying is indeed the case, that would make those three players left to vote look even more curious...
However, as I said, you shouldn't necessarily be trusted at this point. That doesn't imply you're guilty, just that I'm not buying your claims of innocence just yet.
Just curious as to why you think Higgi is now innoncent? What changed your thinking? I want to make sure I'm not missing anything.
Did he talk this much during the other games? Seems like he's just trying to throw us off with long-winded conspiracy theories.
By the time I got a chance to check in, Tara had a majority, so I went with the crowd because I still don't know what's going on.