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Post by strumntheguitar on Sept 1, 2009 21:56:56 GMT -5
Well, the good news about how close this all has been is that it's clear there was a mafia member in the runoff. I think otherwise it wouldn't have been so close so many times in a row. Obviously, someone who was in the runoff had some support behind them. And here's where I stand on that. I realize this is a long post, but seriously please read it all. It's got some good intelligence in it
Kdogg, you're confusing the hell out of me with all of your comments regarding me. Why would there absolutely have to be a mafia push against me? Would it be because you've tried to throw me under the mafia bus in the very 1st round with your ever so early hintings towards my identity in this game? I don't think I've ever heard of a townsperson trying to publicly call out an inspector in day 1 of voting. If you think you know who the inspector is, you don't bring it to the public's attention before mafia even has a chance to off 1 person in a game. Regarldess, none of your theories are making any sense and they all cumulate to you looking incredibly guilty. You hinted, and even reiterated, that you "think I'm on to something" yet you didn't follow in my vote. Why would that be? Perhaps I was on to something and I didn't even know it.
You know... I hate when people whip out post counts as a source of evidence. You've followed all these games closer than probably anyone else on Inforoo, Kdogg. You know HGH is typically a quiet player, and she even admitted to that herself this game. It just so happens that when someone is on the chopping block they defend themselves more, hence a higher post count. Just because she's posted more than half of the people in the game doesn't mean she isn't a quiet player. It just means she had a reason to post. This all being said, I think the townspeople just voted off an innocent (and pregnant, no less!? Shame on us! ) townsperson. I'm almost certain we made the wrong choice between Jen and HGH. I also think Kdogg is very much in cahoots with HGH based on his defense of her when he really has no reason to defend someone else so early in the game without knowing for certain of their identity. I say all this now, because I think my initial vote change in this game raised some eyebrows of the mafia players, namely kdogg. Thus I'll likely be mauled by the jaw de kdogg tonight and won't have a chance to address the issue further in the next round. There's absolutely no other reason why kdogg would announce to the game (and hence, also to the mafia) that he's "pretty sure I'm on to something" in just the first round and then not follow me in my voting. Either way, the joke will be on them. The one they're after will still be out lurking somewhere. I'm nothing more than a very observant townsperson in this game.
Besides all that, I did make it to runoff round 4/5 or 3/4 or whatever number we ended up with. I wouldn't go as far as to say nobody has been accusing me this game yet. I'm pretty sure there were a lot of people who switched their vote to me a few times when things started getting hairy with HGH. Those are the people I'm most interested in with this game. You're claim that nobody tried to get me the boot this round is just blatantly false. You're still trying to get me killed any way you can, kdogg, for a reason I think we both know at this point.
Keep my words in mind if I don't get a chance to reiterate them at a later point in the game, fellas
As for now, since I may not have a chance to discuss further i think the mafia this game are HGH, Kdogg, and either baconus (due to his late change from HGH to Jen when it was coming down to 1 last deciding vote on HGH's fate) or possibly but maybe less likely EAP.
Post by nitetimeritetime on Sept 2, 2009 13:03:14 GMT -5
So yeah, this has to be the slowest first round ever. Maybe it just feels that way because this is the first time I've played. But even after the vote closed 16 hours ago, still nothing has happened.
Is it possible we're waiting for mafia members to log in and see that voting closed last night?
A quick look shows that everybody has been logged in since voting closed (16 hours ago) except higgi and nathen (and maybe kdogg, since he apparently logged in last March for the last time, but hasn't been around here since before voting closed).
Kdogg, you're confusing the hell out of me with all of your comments regarding me. Why would there absolutely have to be a mafia push against me?
The Mafia push against you I was expecting (assuming my theory was right) didn't materialize because, as I said last night after giving it some thought, I think that theory was flawed. I saw something suspect in the reaction of other players to your vote for Jen, not in your vote for Handgun. That's what I was following, and I think I was barking up the wrong tree.
You hinted, and even reiterated, that you "think I'm on to something" yet you didn't follow in my vote. Why would that be?
I thought you were onto something because of the reaction to your initial vote, not your ultimate vote. Since my suspicion was centered around your original vote for Jen, that's the one I followed. I figured you struck a deal with Jen to change your vote for reasons of self-preservation. If voting for Jen was such a bad thing, why did you do it in the first place? And why am I a bad guy for doing it, but not you?
You know... I hate when people whip out post counts as a source of evidence. You've followed all these games closer than probably anyone else on Inforoo, Kdogg. You know HGH is typically a quiet player, and she even admitted to that herself this game. It just so happens that when someone is on the chopping block they defend themselves more, hence a higher post count. Just because she's posted more than half of the people in the game doesn't mean she isn't a quiet player. It just means she had a reason to post.
You hate it in general? Or just when I do an analysis to see whether or not something you said had merit, and things don't match up? I was second-guessing my vote for Jen last night, after considering reasons mentioned above... I was open to persuasion about my vote, because I could've been talked into voting HGH - with good reason. The only reason I saw anyone anywhere give came from you, who voted for her on account of being quiet. I think there's far too many quiet players to single any particular one out for guilt just yet. But I think the sooner we Townspeople pay attention to the quiet ones, the better off we'll be in the long run. I think we can all agree that most Mafia have a member who tries to remain stealth about it, no? What's wrong with trying to uncover their identity?
I'm almost certain we made the wrong choice between Jen and HGH. I also think Kdogg is very much in cahoots with HGH based on his defense of her when he really has no reason to defend someone else so early in the game without knowing for certain of their identity. I say all this now, because I think my initial vote change in this game raised some eyebrows of the mafia players, namely kdogg. Thus I'll likely be mauled by the jaw de kdogg tonight and won't have a chance to address the issue further in the next round.
I already said I was second-guessing my vote for Jen. I looked at the post totals because I was performing due diligence on comments you made. When your Reason 1 to vote Handgun didn't look right to me, I publicly asked everyone for a Reason 2. I never got one. I stuck with my vote for Jen because nobody gave me a better reason to switch. I would have appreciated hearing from you before all this voting closed, Strum, but you were (rather conveniently) quiet and laying low throughout this whole run-off...
You're claim that nobody tried to get me the boot this round is just blatantly false. You're still trying to get me killed any way you can, kdogg, for a reason I think we both know at this point.
I didn't say nobody tried to give you the boot. I was saying that the Mafia attempt on you would have been more concerted and/or successful had my theory actually been the case. I didn't see that, publicly admitted as much last night - a fact you conveniently ignored throughout your rant against me, and sought a second opinion on the guilt of the only other voting option I had. I received none. From Strum or from anybody else.
If I had wanted you gone, Strum, I would like to think I could have gotten it done through voting. But not once did I vote for you, because I thought you were on the side of the innocents. Still do, for the most part, but you're giving me pause now...
I know there were some people after you - that's what my theory was predicated on. The subsequent votes seemed to discredit my theory, and I publicly said as much. I admitted I was possibly erroneous in my thinking, and with the way things played out I also think we might have taken out an innocent player.
I'm not out to get anyone except for the Mafia among us. When there's talk about the quiet ones being guilty, I do some research to help the Townspeople figure out exactly who the quiet ones are. I'm looking at the votes and trying to figure out what's going on, just like any good Townsperson should. Look at that situation that drew my suspicion from a neutral standpoint, and I think you can see why I think something's there - even if I was mistaken. I know I'm not correct 100% of the time, but I think it's obvious that I'm at least trying to help the Townspeople where I can.
There is a difference between making an honest mistake as a Townsperson and being Mafia.
So yeah, this has to be the slowest first round ever. Maybe it just feels that way because this is the first time I've played. But even after the vote closed 16 hours ago, still nothing has happened.
Is it possible we're waiting for mafia members to log in and see that voting closed last night?
A quick look shows that everybody has been logged in since voting closed (16 hours ago) except higgi and nathen (and maybe kdogg, since he apparently logged in last March for the last time, but hasn't been around here since before voting closed).
Maybe this means nothing, but then again...
Rooconteur logged in about an hour ago... it could be that he's still awaiting someone's PM.
Rooconteur logged in about an hour ago... it could be that he's still awaiting someone's PM.
Yes, exactly. The fact that Roo has been around today made me look to see who hasn't been around since last night. If one or more mafia haven't been around to know that voting has been closed for a while, then Roo would still be waiting on a PM from mafia.
I don't think the implication is that the people who hadn't been here during that 16 hours -- higgi, nathen, kdogg(?) -- are all mafia, just that there's a good chance one of them is.
And if we should start looking at the quiet players as you suggested kdogg, well, two of the people who we "might" be waiting for have also been very quiet so far...
Post by rooconteur on Sept 2, 2009 17:05:05 GMT -5
i logged in on my phone. i can hop in to check whats going on if im not too busy. usually don't have the time/ability to check if everyone's logged in, check my pm's etc. back soon with death
Post by rooconteur on Sept 2, 2009 17:24:00 GMT -5
[glow=red,2,300]Strum [/glow]was found early Friday morning outside his tent, drowned in a kiddie pool filled with rum and wearing a grin from ear to ear.
Well, I can say for sure that I am not mafia. Once again, I got stuck with dumb townsperson. I even responded back to roo, boooooooooooo when he sent me my role. I am cursed with being a townsperson forever and ever. Strum dying does change my train of thought a little bit, but imo it is still too early to tell, though I do have my suspicions.
Post by strumntheguitar on Sept 2, 2009 18:12:32 GMT -5
this is probably for the best anyways. I wasn't gonna be able to play past tomorrow anyways, and at that rate this game will only be on their 1st runoff of the 2nd round by then
Ok so here is my theory I think I might be own to something here. But let me first state I AM NOT INSPECTOR!!! Please do not misread this as me subtly claiming inspector.
I initially suspected EAP of being mafia when she voted Strum on page 3 soon after it became apparent that he was not going to be killed. I have noticed in 3 way runoffs often the people who vote for the one with the least votes are mafia members trying to avoid attention or allowing for some form of association with the other mafia members.
If EAP is mafia it would be fair to assume HGH is innocent. If you look at voting patterns I would also say it is a fair assumption that Jen actually was mafia.
Mafia killing Strum would be an attempt to make HGH look guilty, the person who he voted for consistently in the first round.
I have no idea on the third mafia member right now but I am whittling down the list.
I think the best course of action right now is dispose of EAP
Ok, I'm obviously voting for bacon. Like I said before, I'm townsperson and no way bacon is inspector, bc if he was he wouldn't be making such claims as stated above.
Also bacon how do you account for the fact that I kept my vote with HGH for the first two runoffs....if she was innocent and I am guilty then why wouldn't I just keep it on her so as to avoid suspicion by changing it (and prob leading to her demise)??
Also why are you sticking up for HGH??? How do you know one way or the other about her?
Post by awolfatthedoor on Sept 2, 2009 22:38:21 GMT -5
Well to me you either believe HGH is mafia and strum was inspector, or just really right, or the mafia set HGH up. I find the latter more likely. Sorry I haven't been more vocal not too much to add.
All I know is that if Strum got whacked, that means he's almost definitely innocent. I alleged in the beginning that Strum & Wolf could be in cahoots, so that probably makes Wolf innocent by way of association.
The rest of you, I'm not so sure about... some more than others.
Ok, I'm obviously voting for bacon. Like I said before, I'm townsperson and no way bacon is inspector, bc if he was he wouldn't be making such claims as stated above.
Also bacon how do you account for the fact that I kept my vote with HGH for the first two runoffs....if she was innocent and I am guilty then why wouldn't I just keep it on her so as to avoid suspicion by changing it (and prob leading to her demise)??
Also why are you sticking up for HGH??? How do you know one way or the other about her?
I can't explain why you would do something like that but I have seen other mafia members do it in the past. Granted we have no precedence on how you act as Mafia.
I don't KNOW one way or the other or HGH but according to my theory that Jen is guilty we can only assume HGH is innocent. If you are thinking that I am in some way aligned with HGH I would like to state that I was the vote that decided to send her into the final run-off instead of either killing Jen or putting Strum in the run-off.
On a note completely unrelated to the game im sorry but I must brag, I just had one of the coolest experiences of my life. Tucson based band Calexico's next show here is 21+, which im not. I tweeted mentioning how i was disappointed. Lo and behold Joey Burns, lead singer of Calexico, responded inviting me to a rehearsal of theirs. So this evening I go to some old warehouse in the downtown area and got to watch them rehearse in a room about the size of my living room. It was literally the band, two of my best freinds, and I. HOLY POOP!!!
If you are unfamiliar with Calexico check out this video which i am linking and not embedding to prevent someone from ostracizing me for taking up too much space for off-topic stuff. (plus its better in HD)
On a note completely unrelated to the game im sorry but I must brag, I just had one of the coolest experiences of my life. Tucson based band Calexico's next show here is 21+, which im not. I tweeted mentioning how i was disappointed. Lo and behold Joey Burns, lead singer of Calexico, responded inviting me to a rehearsal of theirs. So this evening I go to some old warehouse in the downtown area and got to watch them rehearse in a room about the size of my living room. It was literally the band, two of my best freinds, and I. HOLY POOP!!!
If you are unfamiliar with Calexico check out this video which i am linking and not embedding to prevent someone from ostracizing me for taking up too much space for off-topic stuff. (plus its better in HD)
that's so cool! it's always nice to hear of bands doing that kind of stuff for fans. if you haven't already, check out calexico's album with iron&wine. it's called "in the reins".
Since, I am so confused right now.. I am going to vote Higgi for now. I know it will change, but I would love to hear more people talk and I want to vote in case it ends before I can log back in!!
I have noticed in 3 way runoffs often the people who vote for the one with the least votes are mafia members trying to avoid attention or allowing for some form of association with the other mafia members.
This is pretty persuasive. And it turns out that you did exactly this on page 4, when you changed your vote to strum without any explanation.
I have noticed in 3 way runoffs often the people who vote for the one with the least votes are mafia members trying to avoid attention or allowing for some form of association with the other mafia members.
This is pretty persuasive. And it turns out that you did exactly this on page 4, when you changed your vote to strum without any explanation.
So using bacon's reasoning:
ntrt >>> bacon
Yes, but there was a reason I did this. I was pretty sure at that point either HGH or Jen were guilty so I wanted a run-off between them. The only way to get that was vote Strum. You will notice a few pages down from when I changed to Strum Jen did the same and I changed my vote to HGH. Again I wanted a Jen and HGH run-off and changing to HGH was the way to get it.
On a note completely unrelated to the game im sorry but I must brag, I just had one of the coolest experiences of my life. Tucson based band Calexico's next show here is 21+, which im not. I tweeted mentioning how i was disappointed. Lo and behold Joey Burns, lead singer of Calexico, responded inviting me to a rehearsal of theirs. So this evening I go to some old warehouse in the downtown area and got to watch them rehearse in a room about the size of my living room. It was literally the band, two of my best freinds, and I. HOLY POOP!!!
If you are unfamiliar with Calexico check out this video which i am linking and not embedding to prevent someone from ostracizing me for taking up too much space for off-topic stuff. (plus its better in HD)
that's so cool! it's always nice to hear of bands doing that kind of stuff for fans. if you haven't already, check out calexico's album with iron&wine. it's called "in the reins".
Ya it was amazing, everyone was so nice! It was really cool to see how they put songs together. "in the reins" is a great album.
) townsperson. I'm almost certain we made the wrong choice between Jen and HGH. I also think Kdogg is very much in cahoots with HGH based on his defense of her when he really has no reason to defend someone else so early in the game without knowing for certain of their identity. I say all this now, because I think my initial vote change in this game raised some eyebrows of the mafia players, namely kdogg. Thus I'll likely be mauled by the jaw de kdogg tonight and won't have a chance to address the issue further in the next round. There's absolutely no other reason why kdogg would announce to the game (and hence, also to the mafia) that he's "pretty sure I'm on to something" in just the first round and then not follow me in my voting. Either way, the joke will be on them. The one they're after will still be out lurking somewhere. I'm nothing more than a very observant townsperson in this game.
