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Actually a decent bit of both. I think Sal is guilty and Jack was innocent. It is very uncommon for a mafia to get killed in the first round. Since I know I am innocent any time someone votes for me I become suspicious. You and Sal could easily be working together. I haven't come up with a theory that makes more sense yet but I am open to suggestions.
It is very uncommon for a mafia to get killed in the first round.
Because my reasoning for voting for you was based on a theory of Jack being guilty (and I'm not saying I'm %100 sure on that), I was curious as to whether this was true. I went back and looked through Game 7 (because, before that, they were playing with 9 players and 2 mafia). Out of 19 games (18 numbered games + the All Stars game), a mafia player was offed in the first round 5 times. I'd call that relatively rare, but not very uncommon.
^just curios...why do you think im guilty? what have i said or done to make you think that?
if you look back at my posts i actualy asked tha inspector to ask about me! would mafia do that?
ill be back later with my vote
I am in no way sure about about you being mafia but here is my theory. In a first round run-off with 3 players there is a fairly decent chance there is one mafia. There is also a fairly decent chance that the mafia player will not be killed, because if it gets close the mafia will stack the votes on an innocent. That means Jack is likely innocent and either I or Sal are guilty. Since I know i am innocent that means in my mind there is a good chance Sal is guilty. I would probably have voted you except for 2 things. 1. Swamp voted me and it makes perfect sense Swamp could be mafia 2. I often see reluctance to kill people who were in a run-off the round before but were not killed
P.S. If you give me a more viable theory I will change my vote.
In a first round run-off with 3 players there is a fairly decent chance there is one mafia. There is also a fairly decent chance that the mafia player will not be killed, because if it gets close the mafia will stack the votes on an innocent. That means Jack is likely innocent and either I or Sal are guilty.
I often see reluctance to kill people who were in a run-off the round before but were not killed
i don't really understand why you would'nt vote for me if you feell so strongly that i"m mafia! and i dont understand where you find anything to support your theory that swampy and i are in cahoots...other than tha theory that at this point all most anybody could be workin together! without any proof tho its kinda strange to be puttin out there so quickly! wouldn't you say?
like i said to jack...it s way too early for conspiracy theories! maybe youre mafia and your just tryin to get some townie scuffles goin to deflect attention from yourself!
i dont know for sure but i do know that i had intended to vote for swamp witch to show people that we wernt together but after rereading your posts and being completly unable to ignore your odd statements...ive become very very suspicious of you! im starting too think youre tryin to orchestrate something fishy and i wont let my vote be manipulated like that.
Wait let me get this right you want me to have a definitive reason why I think you are mafia at the beginning of the first round. Here let me give you this I am a townperson I have to proof in any direction, which is why I have mentioned that I am open to changing my vote. Everyone here knows that I often grab on to a crazy theory and stay with it until I am given a reason to change. Sometimes it works to my detriment and other times it has worked. Well you and Swamp are my crazy theory and if you were going to vote Swamp that makes Swamp look much better in my eyes.
So as a result I am going to change my vote to you as I originally intended for several reasons. You are making Swamp look more innocent. Your defense to not being mafia is that I don't have concrete proof that you are mafia. Also it would make sense if you were mafia to kill Strum since he said that those who voted for you were the most suspicious.
Wait let me get this right you want me to have a definitive reason why I think you are mafia at the beginning of the first round. Here let me give you this I am a townperson I have to proof in any direction, which is why I have mentioned that I am open to changing my vote. Everyone here knows that I often grab on to a crazy theory and stay with it until I am given a reason to change. Sometimes it works to my detriment and other times it has worked. Well you and Swamp are my crazy theory and if you were going to vote Swamp that makes Swamp look much better in my eyes.
So as a result I am going to change my vote to you as I originally intended for several reasons. You are making Swamp look more innocent. Your defense to not being mafia is that I don't have concrete proof that you are mafia. Also it would make sense if you were mafia to kill Strum since he said that those who voted for you were the most suspicious.
Baconus66>>>>>>>>Salamander
snap!
first...this is tha second round! second...i wasn't making any real argument about me not bein mafia...yet! i was just asking why you seem so certain that i am without ofering any reasonable argument or theory! i was gonna defend myself accordingly once you gave me something to answer to! third...while, using your original "logic", your current vote at least makes some sense now...i think changing it so quickly makes you look a litle more unstable and qusetionable! fourth...it should be clear from my completly straight forward posts that im innocent!
i leave it in tha hands of the other townies now! if you guys think im mafia...vote me out!
that is all for now!
Last Edit: Nov 6, 2009 16:39:54 GMT -5 by 811942891995 - Back to Top
Because my reasoning for voting for you was based on a theory of Jack being guilty (and I'm not saying I'm %100 sure on that),
Could you elaborate on this theory?
Here were the final votes last time: Jack: 5 votes Bacon: 3 votes Salamander: 3 votes
NTRT >>> Bacon >>> null >>> Bacon Bacon >>> Salamander Swamp Witch >>> Bacon Strum >>> Salamander >>> Jack Salamander >>> Jack Rooconteur >>> Jack Wolf >>> Jack Jack >>> Salamander HGH >>> Bacon Jen >>> Sal Higgi >>> Jack
If Jack was mafia, and the votes were as close as they were, it stands to reason that none of the people voting for him were mafia because they easily could have changed their vote to force a second runoff. It's not foolproof reasoning. If the mafia were willing to sacrifice one of their own in the first round, then one or two of them might have voted for him in order to make themselves look innocent. That early, and with the votes that close, though, sacrifice didn't make the most sense, so that's where I'm working from.
That leaves:
NTRT >>> Bacon >>> null >>> Bacon Bacon >>> Salamander Swamp Witch >>> Bacon Jack >>> Salamander HGH >>> Bacon Jen >>> Sal
Jack's dead, so I can't vote for him. And I know I'm not mafia, so I removed my name from the list (obviously, I realize you can't take for granted that I'm not mafia, but this is my reasoning ).
Now I was down to:
NTRT >>> Bacon >>> null >>> Bacon Bacon >>> Salamander HGH >>> Bacon Jen >>> Sal
I'd have to agree that Jack's argument and defensiveness seems a bit suspicious just because he is making a huge deal out of people's reasons for voting in the first round. Usually there is no point arguing why a person voted the way they did in round one since they are typically random. Everybody always has a dumb statement about why they voted (in this case Sal's statement about letting October choose). I don't think that is enough to accuse Sal. My vote for Sal in the run-off is random-ish, I suppose. I planned on voting for him in round one until HGH voted for me. Since HGH wasn't in the run-off I went to my next choice (which was originally my first choice). I can't really remember every detail of other games I have played with Jack but I think he does seem a lot more defensive than he has before. With that said, there's really no reason to null or change my vote to Jack right now because it wouldn't make a difference. Either way it looks like Jack's out unless there is some spectaular vote changing in the next few hours.
Also, I am really cranky right now and have a pregnancy migraine and can't take prescriptiondrugs Reading Jack's epic post didn't make my head feel any better....changing my vote for him right now might be personal since reading it was irritating. Sorry Jack, nothing personal really, I love ya but your rant made my head hurt but that is not your fault. Rant on! Hopefully my head will feel better soon, the crankyness will go away and I will enjoy reading Kdogg style posts.
Although it could also have just been rambling to try to make it look like they weren't affiliated since it was pretty certain at that point that Jack was getting killed.
I am a bit confused right now. Its is common custom when someone votes for you in the first round to respond by voting for them initially at least even if you intend to change said vote latter. Jack responded to Sal voting for him by voting for Swamp Witch. I don't quite know what to make of this. I would say Jack probably has some inside information. Either way I think that makes Swampy a good candidate for mafia.
Baconus66>>>SwampWitch
The fault in my logic was that he was clearly drawing attention to Jack's oddish vote, which may not seem like a great idea for mafia cohorts, but, if they were mafia together, it also gave them a basis to set up a semi-plausible "Jack is the inspector" argument later on down the line, as that was clearly Bacon's implication. Anyway, Bacon then voted for me, nulled his vote, and changed to Salamander, who Jack was gunning for as well.
Of course, if Jack wasn't mafia, then none of my reasoning stands.
Post by NothingButFlowers on Nov 6, 2009 16:55:06 GMT -5
By the way, I just wanted to let everyone know that I will be gone from Wednesday afternoon until Friday night. I've got a job interview in Nevada, so I won't have access to my computer.
Post by nitetimeritetime on Nov 6, 2009 17:17:10 GMT -5
I'm still digesting your post, Swampy, but I wouldn't discount Jen so quickly. I think that if you're right about bacon being mafia, then you, HGH, and I are most likely all innocent since we were the three who voted for him in a close runoff. That leaves Jen, Bacon, and Jack as the most suspicious, if I'm following your theory correctly.
I should point out that I'm not endorsing SW's theory, just trying to add to it to see where it leads.
I'm sorry but in my opinion your theory makes no sense at all Swampy. The votes in no way prove Jack to be guilty in fact I would argue they prove him to be innocent, especially if you are trying to argue my guilt. Here are the final votes before the run-off:
Why in the world would the mafia allow two of their own to go into the 3-way run-off when they could easily change votes and increase the number of innocents that would be in it. If Jack was guilty why wouldn't he change his vote from Roo to another person who has one vote in order to increase his chances in the run-off. Why wouldn't the other mafia members do the same. It just doesn't add up.
I know that my insistent defense of Jack makes me look guilty at this point, but the only reason I am defending him is it does not make sense for him to be mafia. More and more I think Sal and Swamp are in cahoots. The third person could be just about anybody at this point.
I hope the rest of the townies will at least consider what I am saying and not blindly follow Swamp or Jack.
Another thing you mentioned me saying that Jack might be inspector and how that might be setting him up for latter. If that was the plan why would he out-rightly deny as opposed to hedging comment on it. Plus I don't know about you but one mafia member calling another mafia member inspector in the first round after less than half of the people had voted seems pretty damn stupid. I would be pretty obvious that would connect those two in peoples minds and create suspicion.
I'm sorry but in my opinion your theory makes no sense at all Swampy. The votes in no way prove Jack to be guilty in fact I would argue they prove him to be innocent, especially if you are trying to argue my guilt. Here are the final votes before the run-off:
Why in the world would the mafia allow two of their own to go into the 3-way run-off when they could easily change votes and increase the number of innocents that would be in it. If Jack was guilty why wouldn't he change his vote from Roo to another person who has one vote in order to increase his chances in the run-off. Why wouldn't the other mafia members do the same. It just doesn't add up.
I know that my insistent defense of Jack makes me look guilty at this point, but the only reason I am defending him is it does not make sense for him to be mafia. More and more I think Sal and Swamp are in cahoots. The third person could be just about anybody at this point.
I hope the rest of the townies will at least consider what I am saying and not blindly follow Swamp or Jack.
First of all, I didn't say that the votes made Jack guilty. I said that, if Jack was guilty, then that was my reasoning for thinking that you were as well. I specifically said that if Jack was innocent, my reasoning fell apart.
NTRT >>> Bacon Bacon >>> NTRT >>> Swamp Witch >>> null >>> Salamander Swamp Witch >>> Rooconteur >>> Bacon Wolf >>> Higgi Strum >>> Salamander Salamander >>> Jack Jack >>> Swamp Witch >>> Rooconteur HGH >>> Jenkazoo Rooconteur >>> Jack Higgi >>> Wolf Jenkazoo >>> HGH
Here's the problem with your argument. You were the one who made it a 3-way runoff between you, Jack, and Sal. Before that, you had two votes and Jack had two votes. You could have voted for Jack, in which case his preemptive vote change would have kicked in, and his vote would have been changed to you, and it would have been a runoff between the two of you. Not really damning in itself because the more people in the runoff, the less likely you are to get killed. The thing is, as far as I can tell, Jack didn't log on between the time you voted and the time that kdogg announced that voting was closed. I'm guessing that if he had, he'd have changed his vote to add a fourth person to the runoff, regardless of whether he was guilty.
For the record, I'm not asking anybody to follow me. I'm just telling y'all what my logic was. If it makes sense to you, fine. If it doesn't, feel free to point out the flaws so I can rethink it.
^just curios...why do you think im guilty? what have i said or done to make you think that?
if you look back at my posts i actualy asked tha inspector to ask about me! would mafia do that?
ill be back later with my vote
I don't really think you are guilty but guilty mafia ask the inspector to ask about them all the time to deflect suspicion from them....it actually happens a lot....just wanted to point that out.
With that said, I am not voting for you at this point though b/c I don't thik you are guilty and my vote for you earlier was based on your previous annoying inforoo actions and not really game related. For that I apologize and I gave you crunchies to redeem myself for unfair game play. I stopped reading at your post that I just quoted so I need to go finish before I cast my vote.
Trying to quote people from different posts stresses me out but here goes nothing. If it looks funny just try and figure it out b/c going back and fixing it over and over until it is right might make me lose patience and throw my laptop through the wall. Thanks!
Nov 4, 2009, 3:41pm, ♫ jenkazoo☮ wrote:I'd have to agree that Jack's argument and defensiveness seems a bit suspicious just because he is making a huge deal out of people's reasons for voting in the first round. Usually there is no point arguing why a person voted the way they did in round one since they are typically random. Everybody always has a dumb statement about why they voted (in this case Sal's statement about letting October choose). I don't think that is enough to accuse Sal. My vote for Sal in the run-off is random-ish, I suppose. I planned on voting for him in round one until HGH voted for me. Since HGH wasn't in the run-off I went to my next choice (which was originally my first choice). I can't really remember every detail of other games I have played with Jack but I think he does seem a lot more defensive than he has before. With that said, there's really no reason to null or change my vote to Jack right now because it wouldn't make a difference. Either way it looks like Jack's out unless there is some spectaular vote changing in the next few hours.
Also, I am really cranky right now and have a pregnancy migraine and can't take prescriptiondrugs Reading Jack's epic post didn't make my head feel any better....changing my vote for him right now might be personal since reading it was irritating. Sorry Jack, nothing personal really, I love ya but your rant made my head hurt but that is not your fault. Rant on! Hopefully my head will feel better soon, the crankyness will go away and I will enjoy reading Kdogg style posts.
SWAMP WITCH SAID>>>>>>>>Although it could also have just been rambling to try to make it look like they weren't affiliated since it was pretty certain at that point that Jack was getting killed.
This wasn't rambling (although all of my posts usually do have a rambling tone about them...I talk like that in real life too, btw) but I just wanted to hurry and and get done voting and playing since I was feeling like a truck hit me. I voted for HGH b/c she voted for me...I originally planned on voting for Sal b/c of his actions prior to the game (his annoying posts). I really just wanted him voted off (sorry Sal).....BUT I would have voted Jack b/c I thought he was guilty. At that point his fate was sealed and while I did think he was acting guilty I also was just in a bad mood so really my voting for either of them would have been a bit biased. (That is why I used the word random-ish, in case anyone was wondering about the ish part.)
I'm still digesting your post, Swampy, but I wouldn't discount Jen so quickly. I think that if you're right about bacon being mafia, then you, HGH, and I are most likely all innocent since we were the three who voted for him in a close runoff. That leaves Jen, Bacon, and Jack as the most suspicious, if I'm following your theory correctly.
I should point out that I'm not endorsing SW's theory, just trying to add to it to see where it leads.
I'm not sure how anything I have done thus far makes me look guilty but I do agree with you that Bacon and Jack look guilty. Jack's dead so that leaves Bacon and someone else. I'd still like to hear what others say before I vote. I also would not discount the quieter players right now either since it seems that a lot of innocents get killed early on while mafia sit back and remain silent while innocents duke it out.
Higgi, what is your reasoning for voting HGH? Do you think she is guilty or was that just a random vote until you see how others vote before you make your final decision?
EDIT:Ok, so it doesn't look perfect but you can understand who said what, right?
I'm not sure how anything I have done thus far makes me look guilty but I do agree with you that Bacon and Jack look guilty.
I was just saying that if we used SW's theory, then you, jack, and bacon looked guilty. I'm not sure I buy that theory though.
Gotcha! I'm not really buying into any theories at this point either just yet. The whole SW/ Jack thing in the first round was pretty weird and suspicious looking but I think it made Jack more guilty than SW.
BUT.....It could have been like SW said and he just didn't want to be the first one to stack votes against someone.....especially if he was innocent and he was scared that if Sal was mafia and he was a second Sal voter the other mafia would turn on him and vote him off. It could have self preservation on his part in case Sal was mafia. But the weird thing to me is that when he was under fire for voting SW instead of Sal he changed his vote to Roo without any explanation whatsoever (or did I miss an explanation? Don't feel like looking back right now b/c Dallas just got home with dinner).
I'm not really endorsing either of these theories I just like to talk it out in my posts and explore all scenarios.
I am really curious to hear back on why Roo (EDIT: HIGGI, not ROO...sorry Roo, typo) voted HGH.....also, HGH said she will be gone this weekend so without her vote we will be at a standstill anyway. I'd rather wait and hear what everyone says before I vote instead of voting on a whim and then changing it 20 times like I usually do since it gets confusing.
EDIT: 11/07 @ 10:30 AM- I said Higgi in my previous post which is correct but in this one I wrote the wrong name. Just wanted to clarify that I was waiting on Higgi's response, not Roo's.....sorry for the confusion!
I'd rather wait and hear what everyone says before I vote instead of voting on a whim and then changing it 20 times like I usually do since it gets confusing.
I wonder if I will ever learn my lesson and do this. I doubt it.
Another thing you mentioned me saying that Jack might be inspector and how that might be setting him up for latter. If that was the plan why would he out-rightly deny as opposed to hedging comment on it.
Wouldn't any inspector deny outright that they were inspector if called out? Hedging on that seems like an easy way to get yourself offed by mafia. No inspector wants that kind of attention. What I really didn't understand in round 1 is why a townsperson would risk outing the actual inspector.
Plus I don't know about you but one mafia member calling another mafia member inspector in the first round after less than half of the people had voted seems pretty damn stupid. I would be pretty obvious that would connect those two in peoples minds and create suspicion.
I don't get what would be so stupid about one mafia calling another mafia the inspector -- he would be in no danger from his fellow mafia, and it's not like the townies are going to vote off the inspector on purpose. I don't think calling someone inspector would connect those two in people's minds. I can't think of a situation in which I was townie or inspector that I would want anyone to call me the inspector, and I would probably immediately vote for the person who 'outed' me.
Reading Jack's epic post didn't make my head feel any better....changing my vote for him right now might be personal since reading it was irritating. Sorry Jack, nothing personal really, I love ya but your rant made my head hurt but that is not your fault. Rant on! Hopefully my head will feel better soon, the crankyness will go away and I will enjoy reading Kdogg style posts.