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I meant to post this last night, but didn't get a chance. I probably won't be able to get back here before Monday, since I'm going to Bear Creek today. So I wanted to go ahead and post this now, before the PMs get sent to kdogg. This is gonna get long, so bear with me.
Here's the short version of my newest theory: Roo, SW, and Sal are mafia.
Here's the long version: Round 1: SW votes for Roo. Roo sees and acknowledges her vote, calls her a witch, but doesn't vote yet.
If Roo and I were mafia together, I wouldn't have voted for him because I don't do that when I'm mafia. I think voting for fellow mafia is a bad idea. If you want to verify this, I was mafia in Games 14, 16, 18, and 22. I never once voted for fellow mafia first round.
Meanwhile, Sal votes Jack, and NOT Strum who had voted for Sal already. Ok, it's just crazy Sal, right? Maybe not. Since mafia planned all along to kill Strum that night anyway, there was no need to vote for him. A vote for Strum is wasted by mafia, so they vote for another innocent (Jack) to get rid of two innocents in the first day.
I can't speak for Sal, but I'm not really sure I understand the logic in this. Mafia is going to kill an innocent in Night 1 regardless. If they voted for Strum in Day 1 and managed to get him voted off, couldn't they just have voted off Jack in Night 1? Under your theory, it's still 2 innocents dying either way. (From my perspective, that would have been good strategy because it would have lent credence to the idea that maybe Jack was inspector, which would have put more suspicion on me, given Jack's vote for me instead of reciprocating Sal's vote. Of course, that only works from my perspective because I'm the only one who knows I'm innocent.)
So then Bacon switches and votes SW, basically saying he thinks Jack is inspector.
Then 25 minutes later SW defends herself, and votes for Bacon to put him in a 2-2 tie with her.
Then the very next minute Roo votes -- but for Jack, not for SW who had voted him. Why didn't Roo vote for SW at this point? She had voted for him already, after all. His explanation: "i have no idea...i just voted." But this vote for Jack puts Jack into the 3-way tie with SW and Bacon (all three at 2 votes), essentially saving SW for this round (instead of giving her 3 votes, she's now in a runoff with 2 townies).
As with Sal, I can't speak for Roo either, but as far as not voting for me at this point, I had already switched my vote away from him. I will admit, though, that I was curious as to why Roo didn't vote for me right after I voted for him when he called me a witch.
At this point the votes are: Jack: 2 (Sal and Roo). SW: 2 (Bacon and Jack) Bacon: 2 (me and SW) Sal: 1 (strum)
Then bacon changes his vote from SW to Sal, putting Sal into the into the 3-way tie instead of SW.
Then until the round is over, SW and Sal both spend a lot of words refuting Jack, trying to make him look guilty. The round ends, Jack is voted off, and Strum is offed by mafia. Two innocents go down.
I wasn't trying to make Jack look guilty. He was doing a pretty good job of that himself. I was trying to figure out who was guilty by looking at what we had to go on up until that time. It's kind of the point of the game. Which may be why you are now spending a lot of words trying to make me look guilty. Or maybe you're doing that because you're mafia?
I meant to post this last night, but didn't get a chance. I probably won't be able to get back here before Monday, since I'm going to Bear Creek today. So I wanted to go ahead and post this now, before the PMs get sent to kdogg. This is gonna get long, so bear with me.
Here's the short version of my newest theory: Roo, SW, and Sal are mafia.
Here's the long version: Round 1: SW votes for Roo. Roo sees and acknowledges her vote, calls her a witch, but doesn't vote yet.
Meanwhile, Sal votes Jack, and NOT Strum who had voted for Sal already. Ok, it's just crazy Sal, right? Maybe not. Since mafia planned all along to kill Strum that night anyway, there was no need to vote for him. A vote for Strum is wasted by mafia, so they vote for another innocent (Jack) to get rid of two innocents in the first day.
Then Jack votes for SW. This is her first vote.
So then Bacon switches and votes SW, basically saying he thinks Jack is inspector.
Then 25 minutes later SW defends herself, and votes for Bacon to put him in a 2-2 tie with her.
Then the very next minute Roo votes -- but for Jack, not for SW who had voted him. Why didn't Roo vote for SW at this point? She had voted for him already, after all. His explanation: "i have no idea...i just voted." But this vote for Jack puts Jack into the 3-way tie with SW and Bacon (all three at 2 votes), essentially saving SW for this round (instead of giving her 3 votes, she's now in a runoff with 2 townies).
At this point the votes are: Jack: 2 (Sal and Roo). SW: 2 (Bacon and Jack) Bacon: 2 (me and SW) Sal: 1 (strum)
Then bacon changes his vote from SW to Sal, putting Sal into the into the 3-way tie instead of SW.
Then until the round is over, SW and Sal both spend a lot of words refuting Jack, trying to make him look guilty. The round ends, Jack is voted off, and Strum is offed by mafia. Two innocents go down.
Round 2: To start, SW votes Bacon. Then Sal votes Bacon. Mafia vote stacking? Later, Roo votes Bacon.
Now we voted off Roo.
If I'm right, then we got our first mafia today, and after tonight, there will be 5 townies and only 2 mafia: SW and Sal.
bow howdy! you certainly are tryin hard are'nt ya! iknow im kinda new to this but i find that...in general...tha people who talk tha most and tha loudest are usualy tryin to hide something! im not sayin that im convnced that your mafia yet but...damn brother.... it sure seems like your overdoin' it! and that sure do seem suspicious to me!
but to directly adress tha 2 things you put forth regarding me...
1....i did'nt vote for strum in round 1 even though he voted for me because it seemed trite in my opinon! after our past problems i was just tryin to avopoid gettin in to another back&forth with him....until he gave me a reason to that is! 2....i spent a lot of words refuting jack because i thought....and still do...that he ws guilty as hell...and i wastryin to see how much more he'd loose his cool when i pressued him! simple as that!
at this point id have to say my guesses as to who was workin with jack are yoou...ntrt...and bacon! yallz are just trying too hard to not be hidin somethin!
i ll check back in tomrrow!
Last Edit: Nov 15, 2009 23:57:36 GMT -5 by 811942891995 - Back to Top
I am the Inspector. Here is what I can tell you. In the beginning I was given Sal’s name. I voted NTRT reciprocally and just tossed in the SwampWitch in because I wanted to act as natural as possible and I am the king of randomly changing votes. If you are still wondering this first round is why I so adamantly defended Jack. Jen and Jack where the only two, other than me, who voted Sal at the end of the first round so I figured both of them were innocent.
During the first night I considered asking about several people, but in the end decided on NTRT mostly because I assumed that all of the mafia didn’t vote Jack and NTRT was the one who voted me. I found out my guess was incorrect and NTRT was innocent.
This lead me to thinking there was a chance that my quick vote change in the first round may have been more correct than I originally thought. I decided then to vote SwampWitch at the beginning of the second round after she voted me. Once I realized that no one was going for it I changed to the one person I knew was guilty, Sal. Yet again I realized I had made myself very suspicious and nothing I did would convince anyone. I decided my best bet was to lay low and hope someone came up with a good theory and got votes for someone who might be mafia. When NTRT voted Roo I wasn’t 100% convinced but I did know NTRT was innocent so I hoped that Roo would get enough votes and I wouldn’t have to come out with only one guilty name.
It worked and I survived another day and the town had even killed a potential mafia member. I was leaning towards asking about SwampWItch from the beginning , but after NTRT posted his full theory I was convinced. This time my suspicion was correct, I got a guilty confirmation.
So here is what I know. Sal and SW are guilty. NTRT is innocent. Hopefully Roo was the third mafia member.
I'm 100% comfortable in letting Sal live to see another day. Not so much with Jack, to be honest. Just your typical round 1 hunches with no basis I suppose...
dude! that is so weak! LOL!!!! why would any one ever beleive someone who says that! tha real inspector would be safer...and thus more helpful to tha townies...if he stayed "hidden"! and anyone who claims inspectr falsely is OBVIOUSLY quite shady! but i guess if i was you...id try to muddy tha waters some too!
I decided then to vote SwampWitch at the beginning of the second round after she voted me.
well brother...that certainly does make sense! if your tha inspector and you've known all along that i was guilty but you voted from some one else...then...uhm....wait....imust be confused cause that seems assbackwards!
I changed to the one person I knew was guilty, Sal. Yet again I realized I had made myself very suspicious and nothing I did would convince anyone.
well...i cant speak for any other player but youre odd behvior certainly would'nt convince me of any thing except maybe that your tryin to rewrite history with an obviously tired and aparently underhanded move!
and i know it won't mean anything too anyone else but if youre really claiming that your tha inspector and that you have been told that i am mafia....you are flat out lying!
So here is what I know. Sal and SW are guilty. NTRT is innocent.
...and is'nt it strange that you come up with this claim right after i point tha fnger at you AND ntrt! boy...that seems hella convienient! this overdone and feeble ploy only tells me that i was dead on right about you and ntrt being mafia! like i said before...you guys are tryin WAY to hard!
here it is.... i know that im innocent! tha REAL inspector would also kno wim innocent! by bacon claimin that hes tha inspector and that he's been told im guilty...i now know that hes lying! if hes lying about be tha inspector...he cant honestly know that ntrt is innocent! so hes obviously trying to protect ntrt! so...why would he do something like that? hmmm....
...but whatevs! people will vote how they vote! if tha townies honestly think im mafia they have an obligation to tkae me out...but please dont embarass yourselfs by making a decison based on this illconcieved farce!
Post by awolfatthedoor on Nov 16, 2009 13:38:08 GMT -5
Just so you know Bacon a lot of times people come out and say that they are inspector with the names in order to assure a townie win. It annoyed mafia so much that there was almost a rule instituted.
Post by 811942891995 on Nov 16, 2009 13:47:08 GMT -5
^and i beleive that sometimes mafia come out and claim inspectorin eforts to deflect attention on to an innocent townie! i guess you just gotta ask yourself if you believe what bacon i s saying! if you do...vote for me!
I don't understand why I shouldn't come out and say I am inspector. I was opposed to the Strum rule from the moment it was proposed.
How would me not claiming inspector help the town at all? I have the names of two of the guilty people and believe there is a decent chance the third is already dead. What more can I do as inspector?
Even if the third member was not Roo and instead is still alive it will become very apparent who that third member is before long. If I am killed tonight (which probably will happen if the third member is still alive and probably won't happen if Roo was #3) the rest of the town will just have to vote of SwampWhitch and the game will likely be over. If it doesn't end I trust the town will be able to guess #3 from voting records during this round and the upcoming round.
So my question for Sal and anyone else who thinks I should have not publicly declared by investigatorship: What did I have to gain from not coming out?
If Roo and I were mafia together, I wouldn't have voted for him because I don't do that when I'm mafia. I think voting for fellow mafia is a bad idea. If you want to verify this, I was mafia in Games 14, 16, 18, and 22. I never once voted for fellow mafia first round.
Even if I thought you were innocent at this point, I'd have to point out that this is a weak defense. Voting patterns can be broken.
I can't speak for Sal, but I'm not really sure I understand the logic in this. Mafia is going to kill an innocent in Night 1 regardless. If they voted for Strum in Day 1 and managed to get him voted off, couldn't they just have voted off Jack in Night 1? Under your theory, it's still 2 innocents dying either way.
Except that it's not that easy to just vote somebody off. The first round ended in a 3-way tie with 1 mafia member in it. If it was that easy for mafia to just get someone voted off, then that tie wouldn't have happened.
So, your suggesting that in the 2nd round, all three mafia voted together? That would be really bold.
This is the same kind of weak defense I pointed out above. Bold doesn't mean it's not what you did.
iknow im kinda new to this but i find that...in general...tha people who talk tha most and tha loudest are usualy tryin to hide something!
Ok, but that would explain why you and SW are 2 of the top 3 posters in this game (and I'm not).
1....i did'nt vote for strum in round 1 even though he voted for me because it seemed trite in my opinon! after our past problems i was just tryin to avopoid gettin in to another back&forth with him....until he gave me a reason to that is!
That would make sense, except Strum lightheartedly mentioned your past when he voted for you. It's pretty clear there was no need to let sleeping dogs lie, as it were. No back and forth was coming, as was clear by the way he voted for you.
Post by nitetimeritetime on Nov 16, 2009 14:45:49 GMT -5
Oh wow, I shouldn't post replies before I've caught up with the thread.
I'll say this about Bacon being inspector: I am innocent, so he has that part right, at least. I know that's not going to convince anybody else, but since I know I'm innocent, I'm going to tentatively believe he's the inspector.
I originally thought Roo was the inspector -- I thought that's why he had voted so strangely in round 1, but since I thought he was inspector, I didn't want to call attention to his strange vote and make mafia suspicious of him (everybody was focused on Jack's weird voting at the time, so I thought I'd let that attention stay there in case Roo was inspector).
So then in round 2, I waited around to see what Roo would do. If his vote made sense, I was going with whatever he did. But then I waited, and waited, and finally I got tired of waiting -- I wanted to hear him try to get people to vote for someone -- so I put in him a runoff situation, hoping he would come to his own defense and in the process let us know who we should vote for.
When he just said "bacon," I started to think I was wrong about Roo being inspector. So then I asked him to defend his round 1 vote, and he didn't even try. I now was sure he wasn't inspector. But then I wondered what his weird voting in round 1 was all about if he wasn't inspector. So I started to look into it, and you've all seen the theory that came out of that thread of thought.
For now, I think my theory was right, and I think Bacon is telling the truth.
Ok, but that would explain why you and SW are 2 of the top 3 posters in this game
fair enough but maybe you should look at content of my posts... 18 of my posts in this game were either directed at kdogg or they were random stuffs with no bearing on tha game at all....3 posts were merely votes...andand tha remaining 10 were a combo o fpersonal defense and/or theories or accusations(leaning pretty heavly in tha 'defense" column too)! so maybe i'm talkin alot but not as much as my post count mught indicate!
I'm 100% comfortable in letting Sal live to see another day. Not so much with Jack, to be honest. Just your typical round 1 hunches with no basis I suppose...
^^^ my comments may be contradictory, but I'll explain that after the game ends...
Which would explain why he was the first mafia victim.
besides tha fact that i know that im innocent, and thusly bacon is lying about himself...and by extension...ntrt and most likely swampy...this argument makes much, much more sense to me when it comes to bacons inspector claims!
now im done for a while! ive said my piece!
Last Edit: Nov 16, 2009 15:57:27 GMT -5 by 811942891995 - Back to Top
I'm 100% comfortable in letting Sal live to see another day. Not so much with Jack, to be honest. Just your typical round 1 hunches with no basis I suppose...
^^^ my comments may be contradictory, but I'll explain that after the game ends...
Which would explain why he was the first mafia victim.
I'm not following this. Why do you think switching his vote from Sal to Jack makes Strum look like the inspector? It looks like a regular townie who changed his vote to me -- what makes it look different to you?
EDIT: Sal, you said that this explanation of SW's makes sense to you. Maybe you can explain how Strum's vote makes him look like inspector.
Crap! I wasn't expecting this much to read, I figured it would just be a few posts. I am at work and can't really look at all of it right now because I have nosy co-workers (one in particular) who try to look at my screen but I'll vote as soon as I have a chance to catch up. Sorry for the hold up.
Which may be why you are now spending a lot of words trying to make me look guilty. Or maybe you're doing that because you're mafia?
why would any one ever beleive someone who says that! tha real inspector would be safer...and thus more helpful to tha townies...if he stayed "hidden"! and anyone who claims inspectr falsely is OBVIOUSLY quite shady! but i guess if i was you...id try to muddy tha waters some too!
