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I have been already been sketchy of kdogg in the first round. I am going to vote for him, bc he made no sense to me in day 1 and it's all I have to go on.
Kel>>>>Kdogg
with risking my own safety, I do have to say in regards to Kdogg's status, that he is much too good a player to kill Bek.. B/c automatically people will look to him given Bek and his longstanding rivalry.
I don't believe he would make such a rookie mistake.
Post by awolfatthedoor on Jan 10, 2010 17:15:30 GMT -5
Ummm hippie can you explain to me how I was stacking votes when you had zero votes for you? You are sure going after me awfully hard for a relatively small reason.
If you'll look back at the other games we have played I either voted for higgi based on his usual sneakiness or for the first person that hadn't voted yet. The reason that I did this both times was it seems in general that mafia usually wait until later in the round, so they can cast the deciding vote. It seems to me that if I pick a name off of the list that hasn't voted yet that they would be more likely to be guilty than the list of people that don't have a vote for them, even if only slightly.
If that doesn't make sense I'll try to explain it a different way. I know it doesn't make a lot of sense, but it makes as much sense as any other random vote in the first round.
I have been already been sketchy of kdogg in the first round. I am going to vote for him, bc he made no sense to me in day 1 and it's all I have to go on.
Kel>>>>Kdogg
with risking my own safety, I do have to say in regards to Kdogg's status, that he is much too good a player to kill Bek.. B/c automatically people will look to him given Bek and his longstanding rivalry.
I don't believe he would make such a rookie mistake.
Post by GratefulHippie on Jan 10, 2010 17:20:48 GMT -5
i don't think you get my point, wolf.
in the first round, it is customary to vote for someone, knowing they will reciprocate the vote, leaving the votes essentially null.
however, you voted for me after i had already voted for someone. so, logically we can already deduce that airline would be a vote for me. knowing that, you chose ME instead of another name that a) had no vote at all, and b) hadn't voted yet. which means it would leave me with TWO votes, while there were a short list of people whose name had not yet even come up.
what you're saying makes sense. it's just not an explanation to why you didn't choose another name off the list of people who had not yet even participated in the game.
Post by awolfatthedoor on Jan 10, 2010 17:32:57 GMT -5
I get what you are saying, but you are trying to make my action into something more than it is. I didn't vote for someone who had a vote. And yet you seem almost assured that I am guilty based on something that wasn't even that suspicious. Obviously the mafia was reciprocal voting that round, and possibly for each other. What mafia would call attention to them self by stacking votes or attempting to stack votes in that first round. If anything the mafia benefits by having everyone with one vote. It allows them to lay low.
Post by GratefulHippie on Jan 10, 2010 17:38:00 GMT -5
yes, i know mafia generally likes to lay low. but i also know mistakes can and have been made in the first round, and taking into consideration all of the information up to this point, i still see your actions as being more suspicious than anyone else's at this point.
I get what you are saying, but you are trying to make my action into something more than it is. I didn't vote for someone who had a vote. And yet you seem almost assured that I am guilty based on something that wasn't even that suspicious.
it IS suspicious, though. you're right, i didn't have a vote. YET. but i know you've played this game enough to know that if you vote for one person(Airline), they are going to place a vote for you in return. therefore, having seen my vote for someone who WASN'T YOU, and knowing that person(Airline) would cast their vote for me, you STILL voted for me...knowing that would put me at 2 votes, instead putting in a vote for someone in no danger of having more than 1 vote.
I have been already been sketchy of kdogg in the first round. I am going to vote for him, bc he made no sense to me in day 1 and it's all I have to go on.
Kel>>>>Kdogg
with risking my own safety, I do have to say in regards to Kdogg's status, that he is much too good a player to kill Bek.. B/c automatically people will look to him given Bek and his longstanding rivalry.
I don't believe he would make such a rookie mistake.
a rookie mistake?
Don't you think, if kdogg were mafia, it'd be PERFECT for him to kill bek, because he could claim the mafia was setting him up, because it would be TOO obvious for the mafia to kill someone who voted for them?
Kdogg IS a good player, which is why if he were mafia, this would be a perfect plan. ;]
Kdogg, I'm not sure what your theory was getting at saying the votes were greatly outnumbered in the run-off. I guess it is a more a statement than a theory since you never elaborated. It doesn't really lead me anywhere on voting this round since three different scenarios were pointed out and I'm not exactly sure what you were getting at Kdogg but since you brought it up Bek's third scenario makes a lot of sense but of course that would be pure luck and nothing more.
I guess I'll vote Airline based on Bek's idea that mafia was deterring votes for him and the simple fact that he was already in a run-off.
NTRT, I would also like to hear back from Higgi and if he has something convincing to say before voting closes I may change my vote.
Jen, If this is what you're talking about, then I think she's saying the opposite of how you voted. She was saying we got lucky by Jack dying day one in a vote-off and Airline was the townsperson.
^^yes and the third way to look at it is jack is guilty, the mafia could have been been trying to deter people to vote for airline but the towns people got lucky... this HAS happened before and unbeknown to the townies, it caused MASS confusion later in the game.
with risking my own safety, I do have to say in regards to Kdogg's status, that he is much too good a player to kill Bek.. B/c automatically people will look to him given Bek and his longstanding rivalry.
I don't believe he would make such a rookie mistake.
a rookie mistake?
Don't you think, if kdogg were mafia, it'd be PERFECT for him to kill bek, because he could claim the mafia was setting him up, because it would be TOO obvious for the mafia to kill someone who voted for them?
Kdogg IS a good player, which is why if he were mafia, this would be a perfect plan. ;]
I thought about this, I did, but I still think it's much, much too simple for Kdogg's playing style. Just in my opinion, of course.
Bek's death is curious and I really believe there is something to be uncovered through it, I think time will tell. But, for now, I am most interested in the communication between Hippie and Wolf. He seems to be on the defensive, really trying to ensure his innocence.. May be nothing, but might be something..
Anyways that's all I have to go on so I am going with Wolf.
Jen, If this is what you're talking about, then I think she's saying the opposite of how you voted. She was saying we got lucky by Jack dying day one in a vote-off and Airline was the townsperson.
^^yes and the third way to look at it is jack is guilty, the mafia could have been been trying to deter people to vote for airline but the towns people got lucky... this HAS happened before and unbeknown to the townies, it caused MASS confusion later in the game.
You're right, thanks! I totally read that wrong earlier. I rushed through reading the thread before I left today and just now had time to get a chance to respond.
I think I'll still keep it with Airline just because I'm not sure how else to vote right now. I may not get back on tonight and it'll be late afternoon/early evening tomorrow before I get back on. If voting is close to closing before then I'd hate to hold things up. If voting takes a while and there is a lot of discussion going that keeps voting open I'm willing to change my vote.
I have been already been sketchy of kdogg in the first round. I am going to vote for him, bc he made no sense to me in day 1 and it's all I have to go on.
Kel>>>>Kdogg
Hey, Kel, when you posted the quote above, on the previous page, were you responding to anybody else's post?
^ No, I was just voting. I am random, and sometimes make no sense. Sorry. haha
No problemo. It just seems weird that at the top of page 4, higgi quoted that post of yours to talk about Bek and kdogg's longstanding rivalry. Your post seemed like a strange one for him to quote as a jumping off point to that subject.
-When I Hear My Name -Dead Leaves and the Dirty Ground -Blue Orchid -Passive Manipulation -Red Rain -Death Letter -My Doorbell -Hotel Yorba -Same Boy You've Always Known -Lovesick -Little Ghost -We're Going to Be Friends -The Hardest Button to Button -Black Math -The Nurse -I Just Don't Know What to Do With Myself
Encore: -Ball and Biscuit -Seven Nation Army -Screwdriver
Been working, getting drunk, and working again all weekend before coming back to find myself in the lead. Looks like some of you are waiting to hear from me. I just caught up with everything since my last post about the lopsided vote, so that's as good a place to start as any...
Jack died by a +3 vote. That's not necessarily excessive, but I'm definitely more suspicious of a +3 margin than a +1 or +2. Just seems to me like in the early stages, people are less willing to leave someone's fate in their hands and the margin should be closer to this. I can only discern two potential motives that might be behind that: 1. Jack did something to incur Mafia's wrath. 2. Mafia are protecting Airline. Possibly both? (I'm probably going to - eventually - vote based one these criteria, so I'd appreciate some feedback on these particular ideas...)
I think we Townspeople here created some circumstances that are rare, if not unprecedented, in our games of Mafia. In the initial round of voting, every single player received a vote at some point.
Higgi >>> Kel Kel >>> Higgi Kdogg >>> Bek>>>Airline Nite >>> Jack Jen >>> HGH Hippie >>> Airline >>> Wolf Wolf >>> Hippie Airline >>> Hippie >>> NTRT>>>Jack Bek >>> kdogg HGH >>> Jen Jack >>> NTRT >>> Airline
I can't specifically recall any other times this has happened.
I'm not sure if it's of any importance, but I'll mention that the only players not having a vote for them when this tally became final were Bek and Nitetime.
One crucial consequence of this is that every single Mafia member has received a vote. At this point, Mafia has to have a minimum of three Townspeople on their potential Inspector list. I don't know if we've ever had all three Mafia's Inspector paranoia triggered after a first round of voting. I don't know if a group of Townspeople have ever made it this risky for Mafia to move on an Inspector. That 1-in-3 chance of being right probably makes for a good disincentive. (Hippie, the more I think about your "everybody reciprocal vote Day One" stance... the more I like it )
I hate to say it, but you're barking up the wrong tree if you think I killed Bek. True, we we were (please don't kill me for editing!) arch rivals for quite a span. We've outmaneuvered one another, had some knock-down drag-out arguments, carried grudges from game to game (at least on my part, I can't speak for her,) she Reffed for the game that inspired the rule which bears my name... I could go on. We made arrangements to meet up at this past Bonnaroo, and I had to meet this nemesis of mine. We met up at the fountain to smokem peace pipe and we're cool now. When I added her on Facebook, we learned we even share a birthday. So, a few months back, I took note of the Kel/Higgi- and HGH/EAP-style voting arrangements and invited her to join into a similar alliance with me. She accepted. Wish I could share the PMs to prove it, but that would probably violate the kdogg rule. For what it's worth, though, I discussed this arrangement and cast a mock vote for her in the Mafia 25 thread if you don't believe me. So yeah... Bek's my homegirl and I've got to avenge the Mafia for this. I'm already missing having a safety vote in times of confusion the way things are going.
(By the way, to state the obvious, I concur with Higgi: this reeks of a set-up. I'm honored the Mafia tried making me look bad instead of taking their 1-in-3 chance of whacking a potential Inspector.)
Speaking of votes, it's probably time to for me to share some actual suspicions...
As I said earlier, I think it comes down to Mafia defending Airline, Mafia attacking Jack, or possibly both.
Mafia defending Airline seems quite plausible. Two or three Mafia hiding in a stack of seven voters aren't so easily detected. Part of me thinks that Jack was merely innocent, but - and you know me - part of me just had to dig a bit deeper into what's going on with Jack & Airline. I went through and checked out all votes for/against either of them.
^ It should be noted that, at this point, NTRT had voted for Jack but Jack had not yet posted to reciprocate NTRT's vote. Mentioning this because Wolf has been called out for what I believe to be the same behavior. At this point, Hippie changed her vote:
The vote tally at this point is ten players having one vote apiece, at which point something seemed funny and I changed my vote to Airline in hopes of a runoff with Hippie. Shortly after, Jack chimed in:
Aaaah - first round voting sucks because I have nothing to go on, but it especially sucks when I have to be the deciding vote. I guess I'll just vote for NTRT because he voted for me.
Actually, scratch that - on my second readthrough, Airline's immediate echoing of Wolf's vote seems kinda shady, so I'm changing my vote to him. I hope this doesn't come back to bite me in the ass.
Higgi >>> Kel Kel >>> Higgi Kdogg >>> Bek>>>Airline Nite >>> Jack Jen >>> HGH Hippie >>> Airline >>> Wolf Wolf >>> Hippie Airline >>> Hippie >>> NTRT Bek >>> kdogg HGH >>> Jen Jack >>> NTRT >>> Airline
At this point, everyone has voted with Airline in the lead. Bacon announces a deadline for voting to close, and 10 minutes later:
I voted for hippie because she voted for me initially, oblivious to what wolf posted a couple minutes later. I could have left hippies vote at two or put wolfs tally at two, but instead i voted for someone who hadn't been voted for yet.
Airline>>>Hippie>>>NTRT>>>Jack
just because you crossed a line through something to make it seem like it wasn't your first idea.
That seems like a flimsy reason to me. I'm sure some of you veterans, like me, can see the position Jack was in about editing his post. I'm not sure why, but it seems to me like players are particularly touchy about that issue. We've had at least one game where a player (I think Sadie?) was most likely voted off precisely because she'd changed her mind about a vote and deleted the post within minutes. I can see why Jack would err on the side of transparency with his editing. I can't see why it alone is reason to vote for someone. It also strikes me as odd that, after voting NTRT, Airline switched his vote to join NTRT in sending Jack to the runoff. It has a whiff of orchestration to it.
Airline's post with the vote change was the last one before Bacon closed voting, sending them both into the runoff. Once that runoff happened, Jack wound up receiving the +3 margin that's aroused my suspicions. I suspect that it's a bit of both Mafia defending Airline and Mafia attacking Jack - after all, he did vote for Airline. There are a couple figures around the periphery of this situation drawing my attention too.
I'm not going to vote yet. I want players to have time to digest and respond to this. I dropped my car off at the shop after work tonight, so I'll probably be homebound all day to address any responses.
Post by handgunhipster on Jan 11, 2010 7:57:34 GMT -5
Honestly, I have this entire thing figured out!
I am positive that Kdogg and Wolf are mafia. Since I am positive of that fact, I can eliminate almost every other player that is currently alive from being mafia. Here is our player list: Players: HGH Kdogg- MAFIA Kel Hippie Airline Jen nite bek wolf- MAFIA higgi Jack
First round voting, Kdogg says this, despite Hippie explaining why WOLF is the one that is actually suspicious in the situation. Wolf voted for Hippie, knowing that Airline would reciprocate the vote she had placed for him. On the FIRST day, he's already calling out two people for being in cahoots and he wants them both in a runoff. Any mafia member would be stupid to want either of their members in a runoff on the first day. Through this- I eliminate the possibility that Hippie OR Airline could possibly be mafia.
This Hippie-Airline situation arouses my suspicions to the point where I'm willing to deviate from my voting arrangement with Bek.
I think one of them is up to something, but I'm not sure which. That being said, I think we're best served with the both of them in a run-off...
kdogg >>> Airline
Hippies innocence, I think is further shown by Wolf's insistence that Hippie is mafia.
Kel is shown to be innocent because she actually calls Wolf and Kdogg out on working together. Why would she do that if she were their third member? She'd be completely throwing them under the bus. She also says she believes Kdogg is trying to lead us in the wrong direction, which she is correct with- he is.
It's the first round, so by us knowing nothing you sure are determined that wolf is innocent. Seems shady to me.
Bek, was obviously not mafia, if they killed her off in the first night. I also don't believe that Jack was mafia either. If he was, the mafia did absolutely nothing to try and deter the voting for him.
NTRT is also one of the players who is calling out Kdogg and Wolf for working together..
In the last game in which I noticed a small hole in kdogg's logic, it turned out that he was mafia. That's why I was so adamant in pointing out his non-sequitur defense against Kel's accusation last round. For that reason, I'm going to tentatively vote kdogg right now. This vote is extremely tentative though -- if kdogg is mafia, then he needs to go immediately, but if he's a townsperson, we really need him to stay around if we want to win, I think. So it won't be very hard to convince me to change my vote in this round.
Hippie, your reasoning about Wolf makes a lot of sense. I'm this close to changing my vote accordingly.
edit -- just to be clear, for now:
ntrt >>> kdoggystyle
So.. if all my reasoning is correct.. I think the last remaining mafia member lies in Jen or Higgi. Higgi was quick to defend Kdogg when Kel and I brought up that Bek dying does NOT eliminate the option of Kdogg as mafia. And nothing Jen is doing is really making much sense.
There you have it. Kdogg and Wolf are mafia, and I've cut it down to two people being the last remaining mafia. I know that Kdogg is probably going to try and tear holes in every single thing I just posted and accuse me of being mafia.. but I can assure you- he's lying. Townspeople, let's make this win happen.
Post by handgunhipster on Jan 11, 2010 8:00:21 GMT -5
Since I know editing in a big deal in this game.. where I say "In first round voting, Kdogg said this," I'm referring to the quote I put below of Kdogg saying Airline and Hippie need to be in a runoff.
Been working, getting drunk, and working again all weekend before coming back to find myself in the lead. Looks like some of you are waiting to hear from me. I just caught up with everything since my last post about the lopsided vote, so that's as good a place to start as any...
Jack died by a +3 vote. That's not necessarily excessive, but I'm definitely more suspicious of a +3 margin than a +1 or +2. Just seems to me like in the early stages, people are less willing to leave someone's fate in their hands and the margin should be closer to this. I can only discern two potential motives that might be behind that: 1. Jack did something to incur Mafia's wrath. 2. Mafia are protecting Airline. Possibly both? (I'm probably going to - eventually - vote based one these criteria, so I'd appreciate some feedback on these particular ideas...)
I think we Townspeople here created some circumstances that are rare, if not unprecedented, in our games of Mafia. In the initial round of voting, every single player received a vote at some point.
Higgi >>> Kel Kel >>> Higgi Kdogg >>> Bek>>>Airline Nite >>> Jack Jen >>> HGH Hippie >>> Airline >>> Wolf Wolf >>> Hippie Airline >>> Hippie >>> NTRT>>>Jack Bek >>> kdogg HGH >>> Jen Jack >>> NTRT >>> Airline
I can't specifically recall any other times this has happened.
I'm not sure if it's of any importance, but I'll mention that the only players not having a vote for them when this tally became final were Bek and Nitetime.
One crucial consequence of this is that every single Mafia member has received a vote. At this point, Mafia has to have a minimum of three Townspeople on their potential Inspector list. I don't know if we've ever had all three Mafia's Inspector paranoia triggered after a first round of voting. I don't know if a group of Townspeople have ever made it this risky for Mafia to move on an Inspector. That 1-in-3 chance of being right probably makes for a good disincentive. (Hippie, the more I think about your "everybody reciprocal vote Day One" stance... the more I like it )
I hate to say it, but you're barking up the wrong tree if you think I killed Bek. True, we we were (please don't kill me for editing!) arch rivals for quite a span. We've outmaneuvered one another, had some knock-down drag-out arguments, carried grudges from game to game (at least on my part, I can't speak for her,) she Reffed for the game that inspired the rule which bears my name... I could go on. We made arrangements to meet up at this past Bonnaroo, and I had to meet this nemesis of mine. We met up at the fountain to smokem peace pipe and we're cool now. When I added her on Facebook, we learned we even share a birthday. So, a few months back, I took note of the Kel/Higgi- and HGH/EAP-style voting arrangements and invited her to join into a similar alliance with me. She accepted. Wish I could share the PMs to prove it, but that would probably violate the kdogg rule. For what it's worth, though, I discussed this arrangement and cast a mock vote for her in the Mafia 25 thread if you don't believe me. So yeah... Bek's my homegirl and I've got to avenge the Mafia for this. I'm already missing having a safety vote in times of confusion the way things are going.
(By the way, to state the obvious, I concur with Higgi: this reeks of a set-up. I'm honored the Mafia tried making me look bad instead of taking their 1-in-3 chance of whacking a potential Inspector.)
Speaking of votes, it's probably time to for me to share some actual suspicions...
As I said earlier, I think it comes down to Mafia defending Airline, Mafia attacking Jack, or possibly both.
Mafia defending Airline seems quite plausible. Two or three Mafia hiding in a stack of seven voters aren't so easily detected. Part of me thinks that Jack was merely innocent, but - and you know me - part of me just had to dig a bit deeper into what's going on with Jack & Airline. I went through and checked out all votes for/against either of them.
In order of occurrence:
^ Seconding Wolf's vote here. At this point, bargaining is initiated.
Airline was first to change:
^ It should be noted that, at this point, NTRT had voted for Jack but Jack had not yet posted to reciprocate NTRT's vote. Mentioning this because Wolf has been called out for what I believe to be the same behavior. At this point, Hippie changed her vote:
The vote tally at this point is ten players having one vote apiece, at which point something seemed funny and I changed my vote to Airline in hopes of a runoff with Hippie. Shortly after, Jack chimed in:
At this point, everyone has voted with Airline in the lead. Bacon announces a deadline for voting to close, and 10 minutes later:
I voted for hippie because she voted for me initially, oblivious to what wolf posted a couple minutes later. I could have left hippies vote at two or put wolfs tally at two, but instead i voted for someone who hadn't been voted for yet.
Airline>>>Hippie>>>NTRT>>>Jack
just because you crossed a line through something to make it seem like it wasn't your first idea.
That seems like a flimsy reason to me. I'm sure some of you veterans, like me, can see the position Jack was in about editing his post. I'm not sure why, but it seems to me like players are particularly touchy about that issue. We've had at least one game where a player (I think Sadie?) was most likely voted off precisely because she'd changed her mind about a vote and deleted the post within minutes. I can see why Jack would err on the side of transparency with his editing. I can't see why it alone is reason to vote for someone. It also strikes me as odd that, after voting NTRT, Airline switched his vote to join NTRT in sending Jack to the runoff. It has a whiff of orchestration to it.
Airline's post with the vote change was the last one before Bacon closed voting, sending them both into the runoff. Once that runoff happened, Jack wound up receiving the +3 margin that's aroused my suspicions. I suspect that it's a bit of both Mafia defending Airline and Mafia attacking Jack - after all, he did vote for Airline. There are a couple figures around the periphery of this situation drawing my attention too.
I'm not going to vote yet. I want players to have time to digest and respond to this. I dropped my car off at the shop after work tonight, so I'll probably be homebound all day to address any responses.
Mr. Kdogg, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
Post by GratefulHippie on Jan 11, 2010 8:36:40 GMT -5
kdogg...your constant reference to the reciprocal voting tactic being not logical, or now, in your most recent diatribe, stating that it all of a sudden makes sense, makes you completely transparent.
first, i called out wolf on what was UNDOUBTEDLY the FIRST suspicious thing that happened in this thread. STOP PLAYING DUMB. you of all people KNOW reciprocal voting is how we do things in the first round. why do you vote for bek? because you know she'll vote for you, nulling each other's votes, and therefore not bringing suspicion to anyone. you would also be the first person to call out someone voting for you, knowing that bek always puts in a vote for you. unless you're the last couple people to vote, and there's no one else to vote for except for someone who already has a vote, YOU DON'T PUT IN A VOTE FOR SOMEONE WHO WILL ALREADY HAVE ONE. why? BECAUSE IT MAKES YOU LOOK SUSPICIOUS. why do you think we always have runoffs first round?? because EVERYONE has one vote up until the end, and no one wants to be the deciding factor. however, wolf was willing to put in a vote for me, knowing i'd already have another one coming.
which leads me to my next point. you spent quite a bit of time avoiding saying anything about wolf to begin with, and concocting theories that airline and i are somehow guilty. you NEVER made up a theory about wolf...you simply appeased me and kel by saying you weren't ruling him out. but for someone who is SO suspicious of EVERYTHING the first round that you think you can narrow down ONE of THREE mafia out of ELEVEN people...i find it telling that you would avoid ANY theory containing wolf.
so, while i still think wolf is guilty based on his first round vote, and your continued avoidance of admitting his suspicion, i will change my vote to kdogg if everyone seems that sure of it.
i do think i'll be the one the mafia whacks overnight, though, because i am the main townie campaigning against wolf.
You're right, thanks! I totally read that wrong earlier. I rushed through reading the thread before I left today and just now had time to get a chance to respond. 
)