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Post by indigrainbow on Jul 14, 2010 18:04:42 GMT -5
EAP, if I were mafia and the mafia had some beef with you, upon you not getting voted out by the townspeople would you not have been ousted in the night before poor Bacon?
I'm certain now that EAP is mafia. Only reason I can see why the mafia would have killed off Bacon. There isn't time for fooling around with stabs in the dark on quiet players who voted against a townsperson, Bacon's voting and posting caused EAP to go to the 3-way and then the 2-way and almost die, then Bacon got killed by mafia. Stands to good reason to me that EAP is mafia. It's the only motive the mafia would have for killing off Bacon, because that's all that he did. Vote for EAP, convince someone else to send EAP into a 3-way with Bek and Wolf, and hold his ground about voting for EAP. He didn't do anything else. No accusations, nothing. While the townspeople might (at first) vote seemingly randomly, I assure you the mafia does not kill randomly. If I were mafia and EAP innocent, I would not have had Bacon killed.
Dear townspeople:
1. If you were mafia in this round and EAP innocent, where would Bacon have been at on your list of priority kills? 2. If you were mafia in this round and EAP guilty, where would Bacon have been at on that list?
For me, had I been mafia, in the event of EAP's innocence, Bacon would not have even received more than a brief consideration and I would have gone with someone else to kill in the night. But in the second scenario, I would have had Bacon pegged real close to the top.
Bacon was killed by mafia, so that makes me think EAP is guilty.
EDIT: This is really the only logic I have to go by, and I haven't seen an explanation yet convincing me of the guilt of someone else based off of more than feelings and hunches.
Last Edit: Jul 14, 2010 20:58:47 GMT -5 by indigrainbow - Back to Top
I was just being impulsive earlier when I made my prediciton. It doesn't look like it will pan out. Hell, I suck as a townsperson. I honesty never know what to do. I have no good reason to vote for you EAP. I'm just keeping it with you because you stood out in my head.....and you have to be Mafia eventually, right?
One thing though....you accused rainbow of stacking votes, did you mean this round? If anything I would have been the vote stacker, not him, right? The first voter cannot really be a "vote stacker" if the have nothing to stack upon. I, on the other hand, could totally be called a vote stacker.
on the vote stacking, i was talking about first round.
jen. i ask you to reconsider your vote, if you don't have a valid reason. i wish i was mafia. we all know i've played 8 million games and never get to be. right now, you look like you are kind of in cahoots with indi and he is def the most suspicious in my book at this point obviously.
EAP, if I were mafia and the mafia had some beef with you, upon you not getting voted out by the townspeople would you not have been ousted in the night before poor Bacon?
say what?????
dude indi, i know this is your first game, but you are wordy and confusing as hell. i don't know if you are trying to pull a kdogg or what but you are def guilty in my book. how would you know what you would do if you were mafia, unless you are mafia? you've never played before, so this is my only logical conclusion.
Post by NothingButFlowers on Jul 14, 2010 19:05:38 GMT -5
Indi, I'm having a couple of issues with your logic. The first is that eap has a point in that, if she were mafia, it would have been kind of dumb to have offed Bacon with him being the person who consistently voted for her because, as you've pointed out, it makes her look guilty. Presumably, she would not want to draw that much attention to herself.
The bigger issue is that, in the games I've played, the inspector rarely votes for the person whose name he or she got in the first round, and, assuming that at least one or two of the mafia are seasoned players, they would know that. So, it's likely that they would figure that they were taking a shot in the dark anyway and might try to pick someone that they thought would make a non-mafia member look guilty. In other words, assuming Bacon was the inspector, it's pretty likely that eap wasn't the name he got at the beginning of the game. Conversely, if eap was mafia, she might not immediately think that bacon was the inspector because she would likely have assumed that the inspector would not knowingly vote for a mafia member first round. Of course, there would still be the possibility that the inspector happened to have to vote for one of the other mafia members without knowing it.
Post by indigrainbow on Jul 14, 2010 20:10:13 GMT -5
I was assuming that there were possibilities of many strategies being played, and I haven't gone back and looked at all the other mafias as reference for playing styles, just a little of last game and the rules. I may very well be way off base. It does seem like something pretty obvious to me, so if I am innocent then perhaps it will be much easier at least from this game on to try to figure out if I am mafia in a later game, and I will be able to learn how to cause less disruption in the game for fellow townspeople when I am a townsperson. For this game, I am innocent.
Post by indigrainbow on Jul 14, 2010 21:30:59 GMT -5
If I were mafia, and I have been way out of line and early and loud on things, surely by now my PM box would be flooded with PM shouts to shut the hades up. At least from one vet if not two.
I could be wrong, but I am seeing a mix of opinions. Maybe I have accidentally helped the mafia. I can't torture my head with too many complicated strategies yet and I don't know who plays how, regardless I see now that instead of so many words and quickly voting on day two, I should have just simply asked "would EAP be guilty if Bacon got killed?" if it seemed logical to me. If everyone had then been pretty much of the same opinion that I am just new to the game and am making sub rookie assumptions, then we could have gone on to a different more useful option than considering EAP, at least for the reason I stated. If EAP is innocent and gets voted dead, then I will have hurt my fellow townspeople while being obnoxiously wordy. Any vote, however, is a tough call to make for townspeople (and I'd say the inspector as well) unless something really solid shows up, I'd wager. I don't want anyone to pass me over without considering me as a suspect, because that is part of figuring out who the mafia is (considering everyone). I am convinced that I have been a bit of an annoyance this game, but I have a hard time making my words short while effective and I was trying to think of why I would choose to kill off Bacon if I were mafia so I could have a better chance figuring out who was mafia based on what everyone did in the game so far, including what happens after I point a big newbie finger at EAP due to Bacon's death. If it really is common sense that no one here plays with that strategy, then I have made quite the blunder. But then at least the mafia could be identified, because were such a thing common sense, only mafia would vote against EAP while innocent. This is really confusing to me but I'm staying with EAP, and it seems like others have concurred for reasons or another.
Last Edit: Jul 14, 2010 21:45:54 GMT -5 by indigrainbow - Back to Top
how would you know what you would do if you were mafia, unless you are mafia?
I don't know and never said I knew, but I did say that my strategy was to try to pretend what I might do if I was each player and mafia, notice what they did as well as view mafia kills in the night, and try to backtrack and figure out why, since that's all I have to go by. Likely, if I were mafia, I would await instructions and at the least ask questions in private before acting (as I understand it, mafia are allowed to PM each other but townspeople are not?). I definitely wouldn't go making a scene as I have if I were mafia first game. I still might be wrong about EAP, though, but I'm sticking with my vote unless I see evidence for otherwise.
(PS, sorry if I'm ruining the game, I'll be quieter now)
Last Edit: Jul 14, 2010 22:23:11 GMT -5 by indigrainbow - Back to Top
Kdogg- you know us all too well! The "XXX" is totally what did it! I saw Kdogg and XXX and thought this has to be good! Kdogg- why would you use wood and XXX in the same post?
Post by nitetimeritetime on Jul 15, 2010 9:18:15 GMT -5
On second thought, I'm not sure I want to vote for EAP. Higgi is usually right on target in these games, and what he said about Jen and indi makes some sense. I'll have to rethink this after class.
But I do know Jen has been heavy on the accusations and light on the explanations... And an immediate vote to follow the death, along with INDI?? That certainly looks VERY fishy to me... So, either one of you have some inside info or you're both working together.
Higgi -> Jen
As far as an immediate vote to follow the death along with me, I was the one who cast the first vote. As I said before, perhaps my rushed judgement on the only "evidence" I was able to spot helped the mafia by accident, so it is possible that Jen is mafia. I have explained why I was quick to continue my judgment on EAP.
As far as Jen goes with hard accusations and light explanations, that may be something worth examining, too. I have myself expressed a suspicion of her because of her accusations, but so far, to me, the evidence against EAP is heavier. I won't rule Jen out, but I am not experienced at this game and all I can do right now is look at what Jen has said and how she has interacted with others:
Mafia XXX? I didn't sign on for the adult version of this game. For the record, I am keeping my clothes on.
Since KDOGG is ref and Bek does not have a voting partner I'll step in. Why am I always the stand-in for missing voting pair partners? Boooooo Hooooo! I guess that makes me a free agent
Votes Cast NTRT >>> Wolf >>> NBF Jen >>> Bek >>> Higgi Bacon >>> EAP Wolf >>> LawnGnome NBF >>> NTRT LawnGnome >>> Wolf EAP >>> Bacon Indi >>> Wolf Higgi >>> Jen
As the round progressed, the votes became more chaotic at
Votes Cast NTRT >>> Wolf >>> NBF Jen >>> Bek >>> Higgi Bacon >>> EAP Wolf >>> LawnGnome >>> EAP >>> Bek NBF >>> NTRT >>> Wolf >>> NTRT >>> Bek LawnGnome >>> Wolf EAP >>> Bacon >>> Wolf Indi >>> Wolf >>> EAP Higgi >>> Jen Bek >>> Mike D >>> Wolf Mike D >>> Bek
Bek you would rather kill Wolf than go into a three-way runoff?
wouldn't you rather kill another player then put yourself in a 3way run off? I mean, especially if you are innocent and they could be mafia.
Additionally, it's a reciprocal vote, he voted for me so I voted for him. I figured that someone else would change their vote to me and NBF did which actually makes me less suspicious of her because I would have done the same thing in her shoes. However, it just so happens that I am one of the people in the proposed run off and since wolf had no real reason to vote for me, he would also be the most suspicious person in my eyes so why wouldn't I vote for him?
I'm all for making a run-off between just me and her because I think that will make sure that any possible mafia staying out of this and voting for EAP will be forced to go on the record for voting against me.
Some of this might not make sense because I'm watching PTI and typing at the same time, so just tell me what you need clarified.
Also, on the note related to my own defense, shortly thereafter I voice my suspicion of anyone stating who they think inspector is (i.e., Jen):
well that is just pretty much trying to scare the rest of us into being suspicious of anyone voting for you. i'm all for saving your own skin, but that was a pretty suspicious statement or at best accidentally loaded with all kinds of fallacy. also, i don't see that vets in this game would advertise who they thought the inspector was if they werent mafia, especially first round, so that makes me suspicious of anyone that's said who they think the inspector is. there's not really been any talk about who the inspector is, so its about a safe time as any for the actual inspector (unless townspeople coughcough mafia go saying their name by accident). the only effect of successfully and persuasively identifying the inspector is to ensure their death at night.
NBF, I know it was a bold statement but really it was just a personal prediciton. I could be 100% wrong. I just thought it would be fun to throw it out there.
FTR- I am not trying to tell y'all to vote based on my prediction and I don't expect anyone to be swayed. It was just that, a prediciton. Sorry to stir things up Y'all can totally call me an idiot when the game ends and none of my predictions were true. It was just for fun....ok and maybe a little to shake things up.
indigrainbow-I get where you are coming from.....but I really have no clue whether Wolf is the inspector or the three I names are Mafia. That was more about me having a little bit of fun. As for being a vet and saying who I think is inspector....well it really doesn't matter that I am "outing" someone because I have nothing to back it up. A hunch without any evidence may not go very far. It may incite some discussion and stir things up, but oh well....a little excitement might make it more interesting.
I trust that you all will make your decisions based on whatever strategy works best for you. With all the lying and tricks I tend to rely on my gut and so far it seems to work for me.....with the exception of KDOGG because no matter what he says I ALWAYS think he is Mafia
Honestly at this point I think wolf and EAP are both mafia.
I mean, who volunteers to put themselves in a run off (EAP) to protect another player (wolf)?
The way I see it, things were hot between wolf/myself which diverted attention from EAP. Things were shaping up to become a run off between wolf and myself with a split consensus but EAP volunteered to go into the run off which saved wolf from a likely(?) death. Doesn't anyone find that suspicious?
Can you explain to me why you think she was trying to save Wolf?
I thought EAP was pushing for a run-off to save herself. As it stood she had three votes and Wolf had 2. It looked to me like she was trying save herself for a little longer via run-off.
As the 2-way votes became
Vote Tally Bek: 6 votes EAP: 5 votes
Votes Cast Jen >>> EAP Bacon >>> EAP Wolf >>> Bek NBF >>> Bek EAP >>> Bek Indi >>> EAP Mike D >>> Bek NTRT >>> EAP Gnome >>> Bek Bek>>>EAP Higgi>>>Bek
The second day, Jen then votes EAP right after me.
EAP's inquiries on her voting style and predictions panned this out:
I was just being impulsive earlier when I made my prediciton. It doesn't look like it will pan out. Hell, I suck as a townsperson. I honesty never know what to do. I have no good reason to vote for you EAP. I'm just keeping it with you because you stood out in my head.....and you have to be Mafia eventually, right?
One thing though....you accused rainbow of stacking votes, did you mean this round? If anything I would have been the vote stacker, not him, right? The first voter cannot really be a "vote stacker" if the have nothing to stack upon. I, on the other hand, could totally be called a vote stacker.
Which was clarified later that EAP was talking about my "vote stacking" on first day.
EAP, I really don't think I will reconsider my vote for you but I am curious who you suggest I should change it to....you never know.
To which EAP has yet to log on to see (presumably) and reply.
It seems to me like this is the type of game where one wrong turn leads to another wrong turn, but right turns end up leading to more right turns.
The concensus of the townspeople for first day voting was to kill Bek, with EAP in a close second. I don't know if Bek was guilty or if EAP or Jen are guilty, but I'm sticking with EAP still unless I get enough evidence to convince me that EAP may be innocent or that someone else appears more guilty than EAP.
Last Edit: Jul 15, 2010 10:49:22 GMT -5 by indigrainbow - Back to Top
Post by indigrainbow on Jul 15, 2010 11:05:39 GMT -5
This caused the 3-way vote:
NTRT >>> Wolf >>> NBF Jen >>> Bek >>> Higgi >>> EAP Bacon >>> EAP Wolf >>> LawnGnome >>> EAP >>> Bek NBF >>> NTRT >>> Wolf >>> NTRT >>> Bek LawnGnome >>> Wolf EAP >>> Bacon >>> Wolf Indi >>> Wolf >>> EAP Higgi >>> Jen Bek >>> Mike D >>> Wolf Mike D >>> Bek
End results of 3-way between Wolf, EAP and Bek:
Jen >>> EAP Bacon >>> EAP Wolf >>> Bek NBF >>> Bek LawnGnome >>> Wolf EAP >>> Wolf >>> Bek Indi >>> EAP Bek >>> Wolf Mike D >>> Bek NTRT >>> EAP Higgi >>> Bek >>> null >>> Wolf
End of 2-way between EAP and Bek
Jen >>> EAP Bacon >>> EAP Wolf >>> Bek NBF >>> Bek EAP >>> Bek Indi >>> EAP Mike D >>> Bek NTRT >>> EAP Gnome >>> Bek Bek>>>EAP Higgi>>>Bek
----
Vote Tally
EAP: 4 votes Rainbow: 2 votes Jen: 1 vote
Votes Cast Rainbow >>> EAP Jen >>> EAP EAP >>> Jen >>> Rainbow Higgi >>> Jen Mike D >>> Rainbow Wolf >>> EAP NBF >>> EAP NTRT >>> EAP >>> null
Left to Vote LawnGnome
Last Edit: Jul 15, 2010 11:15:23 GMT -5 by indigrainbow - Back to Top
On second thought, I'm not sure I want to vote for EAP. Higgi is usually right on target in these games, and what he said about Jen and indi makes some sense. I'll have to rethink this after class.
ntrt >>> EAP >>> null
Also, congratulations Indi, for what I believe is the longest post in Mafia history. AND hi Kel and Hippi - I also agree that is is funny y'all come out when things get a little racey
As far as EAP I am unsure, she hasn't done anything to support or deny claims of guilt. To me.
As far as the Indi & Jen vote that went immediately following the death post - I still find that extremely uncomfortable. Lets think about it:
1. They vote immediately after the kill is posted - could mean they submitted it - technical error? 2. They were the FIRST two votes of the the second round - and they voted together (stacked?) against one player who, to be honest, doesn't have much against her, aside from accusation. 3. All the accusations without explanations [Jen says, Indi supports] - normally not a good idea. It reveals that you know something, whether it be good or bad. And since we have two in this case, I highly doubt one is the inspector.
I am changing my vote to Indi - I am not opposed to killing EAP, but as we don't have CONCRETE evidence against either, I feel we should consider a runoff between the two of them. Any thoughts?
Post by indigrainbow on Jul 15, 2010 13:43:09 GMT -5
To clarify, I don't support all the accusations of Jen, and in fact stated it was odd of her to name who she thought was the inspector. I support the accusation (which I brought up first before anyone else) of Bacon getting killed after a close call for EAP being due to EAP being mafia, but only because nothing else comes to mind aside from Jen's suspicious naming off all mafia and the inspector early on in the game. As of right now, since no other evidence has surfaced, Jen is my next in line for my vote with EAP being right before her. I am giving a lot of weight to the murder in the night, because that seems like the biggest clue to me and no one has said anything otherwise than "that would be too obvious" without pointing out anything that is more worthy of my vote.
I support run-offs to ensure the least amount of innocents are tried as guilty, but I also contest that had I been mafia and tried to make EAP look guilty, I would have had the smarts to not be the first to vote for EAP.
If I have been wrong in assuming Bacon's death makes EAP look guilty, and it is common sense that the mafia just don't make such obvious blunders, then the vets who have voted for EAP might be mafia. If I have not been unreasonable in considering EAP as guilty, then those who have tried to make it seem as though I have been unreasonable might be mafia.
Interesting game, nonetheless!
Last Edit: Jul 15, 2010 14:20:40 GMT -5 by indigrainbow - Back to Top
Fair enough, but i don't believe anything on the surface level of this game, as it is completely driven by deception and lies.
However, I do completely agree with you that the mafia's nightly 'kill' is very useful information. Most times it directs you to one person in particular, I've found that instead of looking to that person, you should look to the person most far away and detached from the kill. Most times, unless the mafia has taken that into consideration, you can find at least one guilty party and make connections to the others-
i.e. you had no ties with Bacon and you may be using the BACON/EAP evidence to distract from that fact?
Post by indigrainbow on Jul 15, 2010 14:24:17 GMT -5
I can see that logic. However, with so many people not having had ties to bacon's short gameplay, wouldn't that make practically everyone suspect just because they didn't have ties with him? Thus no need to distract from me. Some people may have cast a vote or two for me just out of suspicion for being new, but had I been quiet, I really don't think I would have accumulated much of a suspicion. I voted for Wolf, changed to EAP, and continued along the route of EAP. It is very apparent to me that a large part of the evidence used in this game is based on who accuses who and who votes for who, as well as who is killed in the night, I don't need previous experience to know that, just a basic understanding of the rules. Strategies and personal playing styles is something entirely different, and mixes it up a bit. I stand by what I said, I voted adamantly as soon as I saw what I thought was evidence, and will continue with EAP as my top suspect unless more of the chaos can be deciphered otherwise. I will admit that it is possible that EAP is innocent as well as I and that the mafia is taking advantage of a new player quickly pointing fingers. You'd have to do a whole lot of double-talking me in circles and quadruple entendres to convince me I'm mafia, though. Probably convince me that I'm a walrus before that.
Last Edit: Jul 15, 2010 14:41:07 GMT -5 by indigrainbow - Back to Top
^^ yes, theoretically, but you stand out among the masses because of your adamant argument over her guilt.
To be clear, I don't support or deny the claims of her guilt thus far, because I haven't seen or heard anything from her or anyone else that makes me think such a thing - and unless you are our inspector, there is no evidence to support that aside from your claims, which have ultimately used Bacon as the main piece of evidence. Personally, I don't see a connection there.
Post by indigrainbow on Jul 15, 2010 14:42:50 GMT -5
Aren't you being adamant about me? What's more suspicious, adamantly accusing someone of guilt because of a seemingly obvious connection to the victim, or adamantly accusing someone of guilt because they accuse someone of guilt because of a seemingly obvious connection to the victim?
Last Edit: Jul 15, 2010 14:43:31 GMT -5 by indigrainbow - Back to Top
That will be a lot of reading.
