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Post by indigrainbow on Aug 3, 2010 23:13:04 GMT -5
i've been pretty quiet because it's still too early for me to tell. i am partial to feeling like wolf or kdogg is mafia rather than neither of them being mafia, though. that isn't math, just pondering what's been said and done. i dont know about anyone else, and i dont know about either of them, either. i do feel like voting wolf off hands down without looking at kdogg to see if kdogg appears more guilty is a folly move, though. there's already been a lot of talk about nothing, and more than three people have made mistakes throughout the thread so the whole trying to figure out if someone is purposefully misleading or accidentally misleading messes things up. maybe no one with strange circular logic and/or errors is mafia, maybe all the mafia are quiet, i don't know. maybe there's a mix. i don't think i have enough information to feel good about seeing wolf get voted off without another look at kdogg first. going to throw in an if/then statement because the tally is confusing me.
For some reason Beks vote for Kdogg has not been on the votes cast record since the second page. I edited this tally to include it. As Far as I can tell the tally is and has always been correct.
sorry guys, my bad. the tally was def correct though.
i am going to close voting tomorrow when i wake up, which should probably be around 11am. (unless i feel something HUGE is still going on)
if you have your eye out for Indi, then why are you voting for Kdogg?
Edit: I left a word out.
I always vote kdogg first round. It is an agreement we have just like you and higgi. This is still the first round, right?
i get that you and kdogg have the reciprocal thing going on, and your first vote isn't the least suspicious. but now that we're in what? the third runoff?? i would think if you were innocent, and had the townspeople's interest in mind, you would be voting for the people you actually thought were guilty...not just someone you happen to vote for in the first round every time. we're 6 pages into this, so it's not like you don't have any extra info.
now, i'm not saying kdogg is innocent or guilty, or that i know who is. but it seems shady that you're sticking with one vote when you haven't even pointed a finger at him.
My suspicion started on page 1 with bacon placing kdogg in the first runoff (now I realize its the first round and all that, but this is where it started for me.
I could vote booth and continue the reciprocal voting but in the end that accomplishes nothing. We need run-offs. Unfortunately, no one has done anything even slightly suspicious. So here is my random vote. Please people change some votes so we can get a 3 or 4 person run-off.
Baconus66>>>kdogg
kdogg said himself in post #65 that "I still think there is something to be said about who you choose to put into a runoff. Refer to my post above." in response to higgi voting for a runoff and calling it normal. With what bacon has said in his last few posts about me being the final vote, I see the two of them working together, and bacon trying to save kdogg.
I am on page four and am willing to change my INDI vote to get a Kdogg Wolf run-off.....not sure if voting is closed yet but about to finish reading. If voting is till open then my vote is NULL until I catch up. I am working on a post as I read.
Remember Jen if you do that you are basically giving Mike D the deciding vote. He has been very absent this game and have no idea of knowing his role.
Although it wasn't Jen, I still ended up with the deciding vote due to indi changing last minute. Although I have been a little suspicious of indi before, having statements like this from bacon, things changing votewise in the game, then me still having the final vote makes it comfortable for me to call out indi as mafia, and very possibly Jen as well.
Now as far as wolf goes, we are all aware of this "mistake"
As I've mentioned time after time, I'm in favor of as many people in the 1st round run-off as possible.
Wolf >>> ntrt >>> Hippie
wolf and ntrt exchanged votes to start the game, then wolf changes to someone with no votes thinking it was going to put hippie in a runoff, changes to higgi, then kdogg. I am not that familiar with several of you yet, but this does draw my attantion to wolf. In post #91 wolf goes back to calling out higgi again, higgi replies with
Also I know I'm going to die, but I think kdogg is right. I go back to higgi being mafia.
See this sounds like the the last plea of a dying man..
I know I am innocent, and for the both of you to oddly call me out with NO REASONING behind it in the first round AFTER being mafia for the past two games... Definitely sounds the sirens to me.
Although all of the crazy quantum calculus statistics come into play for some of you, not for me. This is leading me to believe that higgi and wolf are actually working together.
Something else that has caught me off guard was hippie's post
i know my last post picking apart kdogg's quote was long, but if someone could maybe give me some feedback i'd be grateful. what i wrote makes sense to me, but that doesn't really mean a whole lot sometimes...
wolf (may or may not have) screwed up on his vote for hippie, but then later in the same round hippie goes tearing apart at kdogg. I don't exactly know if this is hippie being very suspicious of kdogg and calling him out or what, but at the time of his post it was down to kdogg and wolf with indig having only my vote left I believe. Then we see
I always vote kdogg first round. It is an agreement we have just like you and higgi. This is still the first round, right?
i get that you and kdogg have the reciprocal thing going on, and your first vote isn't the least suspicious. but now that we're in what? the third runoff?? i would think if you were innocent, and had the townspeople's interest in mind, you would be voting for the people you actually thought were guilty...not just someone you happen to vote for in the first round every time. we're 6 pages into this, so it's not like you don't have any extra info.
now, i'm not saying kdogg is innocent or guilty, or that i know who is. but it seems shady that you're sticking with one vote when you haven't even pointed a finger at him.
This little theroy is causing me to think that hippie is working with wolf as mafia.
I have to admit, I have no idea what you're saying here bacon. Can you clarify this?
All im saying is Mike D has done very little this game and there is no reason to give him the sole decision over who dies. That is why I am so against the run-off. I don't want the power to fall into one or two hands.
I am a player in this game just like everyone else, why dont you want me to vote? I am thinking it is due to something you saw posted that is making me more probable to vote for someone you are protecting. I don't post left and right because even as you said, 40% of whats on here is fluff and for the most part I don't see the need to have one more person quoting post after post after post, page after page. Yes, this is a thinking game, I understand that. My first game I opened my mouth early and got voted off early. Second game I kept my mouth shut and actually got to play the game. Don't think that just because I don't go post crazy I am not following the game.
All in all, yes both kdogg and wolf look a little guilty, but there are several others that look even more guilty to me. I have been told to use my gut feeling in past games and it has worked. I firmly believe that kdogg is mafia, and I would be willing to bet that bacon and indi are as well. We are all watching wolf regardless due to his blunder, I feel if wolf is mafia, higgi and kel are with him. The first scenario seems much more likely to me.
With what bacon has said in his last few posts about me being the final vote, I see the two of them working together, and bacon trying to save kdogg.
I was actually kinda thinking the same thing. I wanted to change my vote to kdogg as soon as possible after kdogg and bacon started posting more, but didn't want to appear suspicious or like the inspector. My posts have been trying to do damage control on faulty math and baiting mafia. I, too, learned from my first game, in that strongly pointed fingers from innocents bring both suspicion on whoever is pointing fingers and manipulation by the mafia.
The reason I switched my vote is because even though I knew it could make me look guilty, you (Mike D) seemed to express that you were unhappy with the inability to affect anything by changing your vote. Since it looked like wolf was dying, I doubt you would have even spoken up at the time, or you would have at least worded yourself differently. I was hoping that you would vote for kdogg.
If I had gone into that, though, you would have been suspicious that I was trying to save wolf!
I was walking a narrow line, checking in often even when I didn't post, hoping someone else would change their vote to get a run-off between wolf and kdogg, and it seemed dangerously close to having EAP calling the round with wolf dead, so I went ahead and changed.
I don't know who else is with kdogg and bacon if they are mafia, but I think they both are mafia, too.
Wolf made me suspicious at first, but not by much at all as I said earlier. Kdogg has been doing a lot of what appears to me as fishy talking.
I think we are making the right decision by voting off kdogg.
Post by GratefulHippie on Aug 4, 2010 11:13:32 GMT -5
For the record, I am innocent. And my long post dissecting kdogg's post was to point out all the flaws. I am only suspicious of two people so far, and that's kdogg and wolf. I don't feel really strongly towards either, but I do think at least one of them is guilty. Not to mention I've played this game with kdogg a lot, and he's really good at making long posts. I think part of that strategy is to try and get people to skim it rather than really pay attention to details. And because he seems so involved, people are willing to keep him around to "help" them out.
I always vote kdogg first round. It is an agreement we have just like you and higgi. This is still the first round, right?
i get that you and kdogg have the reciprocal thing going on, and your first vote isn't the least suspicious. but now that we're in what? the third runoff?? i would think if you were innocent, and had the townspeople's interest in mind, you would be voting for the people you actually thought were guilty...not just someone you happen to vote for in the first round every time. we're 6 pages into this, so it's not like you don't have any extra info.
now, i'm not saying kdogg is innocent or guilty, or that i know who is. but it seems shady that you're sticking with one vote when you haven't even pointed a finger at him.
say what you will but I did my part to help get a run off.
(Was up until 5am writing this after work, only to have technical difficulties prevent me from posting this until now...)
Holy crap! I nulled to respond to one post I didn't have time to get to, and wind up with three pages to catch up on... Y'all are wordy so I'll try to keep up
When I nulled my vote this morning, I got the feeling I was being accused of being Mafia for my position on Higgi in the first round of the runoff. I'll rehash that quick.
With the first runoff, we gave everyone four choices. We got to ten votes, and at that point it was nearly 3x more likely that all Mafia had voted than only two of them. It just follows that if we know all the Mafia have voted, the vote trail can be helpful in figuring out their motives.
We gave everyone the choice between A, B, C and D. We know there's an 8-in-11 (73%) chance all Mafia have voted; I find these to be rather favorable odds, so I assume this to be the case. Based on those two assumptions, we know that when given the choice between A, B, C and D - the Mafia displays a preference for A, B, or C... but not D. If you're an innocent who's trying to work against the Mafia, is voting D not your best choice here? If you know the Mafia supports one or more (of three) courses of action, wouldn't you want to avoid taking any of them if possible?
Especially when D and Kelaroo have a long history of voting for one other so it seems more likely Mafia are elsewhere in the votes...
So I made this argument, which I find to be entirely reasonable. I tried using all I have available to me - what happens in the thread - and Hippie was quick to say DUH! to me. Though she did it condescendingly, it still needs to be pointed out: Hippie agrees that the observations which form the foundation of my suspicion are legitimate. A word of warning to my fellow Townspeople: be wary that she recognizes this foundation, yet distrusts what is built upon it.
Quick detour - I find it necessary to issue a warning about Hippie with good reason:
so either you're inspector trying to tell us something, or you're mafia and trying to steer attention another direction.
I find it that the first player to utter the I-word in conjunction with another player more often than not has sinister motives. Just sayin'.
Then we have the matter of the quoting of my (apparently) infamous "121" post... from like twenty games ago. Kel, I'm flattered that you went back to dig that up... although I'm a bit disappointed that you neglected to also include the multiple occasions since then where I have disavowed this notion. I can't help but notice that Kel joined Inforoo in February 2009 but is quoting a post from April 2008... perchance an indication that she's working in cahoots with a more veteran player? To clear up one last question raised about when I wrote that post: I was a Townsperson that game, coming off of a Mafia role the previous game, defending myself in an early Day vote. I should reiterate that I am of the belief that each player has the same chance (3-in-11) of being Mafia as every other player. I do not believe that Higgi's previous role has any bearing on which role he received this game. Higgi has the same chance of being Mafia in this game as anyone, simple as that.
I am a Townsperson. Just look at the way I've been playing here, and you should see that I'd be a horrible Inspector/Mafia with the way I'm playing. I am certainly not lying low, as I would be as either Inspector (definitely) or Mafia (likely). Even if I were Mafia trying something to draw attention to myself... don't you think I would only risk that attention for something I could actually change? Instead, I made a logical argument calling for votes against the way the Mafia was voting (however that was.) What is my motivation, if I were Mafia, to say "hey guys, the Mafia wants ABC gone... let's vote D"? It would draw unwanted attention upon myself, not to mention be counterproductive towards my hypothetical Mafia ends. I'm a Townsperson, and as such I fear mortality. I want to contribute as much to thwarting Mafia as I can while I'm still around. If that means issuing a dissenting opinion which I find for the Townspeople's benefit, yet makes me a lightning rod, so be it. I'm just doing what I feel duty-bound to as a Townsperson.
Higgi doesn't seem to agree. He has on more than one occasion this game accused Wolf & I of being Mafia in cahoots. I declare this to be the frontrunner for the Biggest BS Statement of the Game Award. Do any among you really think that a Mafia would engineer a triple-runoff in which two of their own were the only candidates? After starting with four candidates and having a viable alternate? Please, Higgi... we're not retarded here. Your bullshit is quite pungent.
As I've said before, that first runoff showed that the Mafia prefers one or more of the following candidates gone: kdogg Wolf Indigrainbow
A look at how we three voted can help show why the Mafia would want to run (at least one, probably two, but possibly three of) us out of town:
Votes Cast Bek>>>Kdogg ntrt >>>Wolf Mike D>>Indi Wolf>>>Higgi>>>kdogg Bacon>>>kdogg>>>Wolf Jen>>>>>Indi>>>null>>>Wolf Indi>>>>Wolf>>>>Kdogg Higgi>>>Indi>>KDOGG Hippie >>> Wolf Kelaroo>>Kdogg Kdogg>>>Wolf>null>Wolf
I am convinced the Mafia wanted some, if not all, of us three in this runoff. I noticed three names came up twice in our collective voting record. If the Mafia steered players towards a runoff, it is probably because toes were stepped on in voting for one of these names: kdogg (Indi & Wolf, currently together) Higgi (kdogg & Wolf, at varying points) Wolf (Indi & kdogg, at one point simultaneously) One of these players receiving votes is probably the reason their voters were advanced beyond the first runoff. I know it isn't me, and I think I've made my case for why I don't have a special role.
I think it is worth noting that Indigrainbow voted against Wolf in the first runoff, but did an about-face and voted WITH Wolf (against me) in the current vote. This looks suspicious to me, and I think it warrants an explanation from Indigrainbow.
I guarantee my innocence, and I hope I've gained enough trust for my fellow Townspeople to believe me. I know it was a lot to catch up on and I couldn't touch on everything, but I'm still open to questions. I've got nothing to hide. I honestly don't know about Wolf despite some justifiable suspicion, but I promise you all that I am innocent.
Inspector, you can go ahead and ask about me if you like. I warn you, however, that inquiring about me will only reveal me to be a Townsperson. I'd rather you use your guess on someone who has a legitimate chance of being Mafia. I know you've gotten one name already, and I suspect that name is among the following: Higgi Indigrainbow Wolf Hippie Bacon (only player who has yet to receive a vote this game) I suspect you have one of the names on this list, and if that is the case, I encourage you to ask about others on it. You're welcome to ask about me, but that will only serve to confirm that I am indeed on the Townspeople's side here.
I hope the rest of my fellow Townspeople realize I'm on your side and trying to get to the bottom of this with you. If you've got any questions, I'd be happy to answer them.
Now as far as wolf goes, we are all aware of this "mistake"
wolf and ntrt exchanged votes to start the game, then wolf changes to someone with no votes thinking it was going to put hippie in a runoff, changes to higgi, then kdogg. I am not that familiar with several of you yet, but this does draw my attantion to wolf. In post #91 wolf goes back to calling out higgi again, higgi replies with
See this sounds like the the last plea of a dying man..
I know I am innocent, and for the both of you to oddly call me out with NO REASONING behind it in the first round AFTER being mafia for the past two games... Definitely sounds the sirens to me.
Although all of the crazy quantum calculus statistics come into play for some of you, not for me. This is leading me to believe that higgi and wolf are actually working together.
[/quote]
Okay, okay, okay... If I were working WITH WOLF, why would I call attention to him and suggest him as mafia?! In the FIRST round nonetheless! I wouldn't. So you can throw that theory out the window.
Dear Everyone, I know I have been more outspoken and accusatory than most games, but I can ensure it has only been because I've seen some suspicious play and have done my best to expose it. I promise you I am a townie.
With that being said, I would highly suggest you look at the players who are suggesting MY guilt, because they are the ones with something to hide, I do believe.
Higgi doesn't seem to agree. He has on more than one occasion this game accused Wolf & I of being Mafia in cahoots. I declare this to be the frontrunner for the Biggest BS Statement of the Game Award. Do any among you really think that a Mafia would engineer a triple-runoff in which two of their own were the only candidates? After starting with four candidates and having a viable alternate? Please, Higgi... we're not retarded here. Your bullhonkey is quite pungent.
Higgi, I would love to hear what you have to say to this particular stretch of my post.... You seem to have ignored it the first time around. Everything you say is suspect to me from this point forth, unless and until you provide a logical explanation for why myself & Wolf are both Mafia. Especially given the circumstances.
Basically Kdogg, if the mafia were chosen, maybe two, possibly even all three into a runoff, it wouldn't be there choice, would it now? It would be the townies who voted them there. I'm not saying it was impeccable investigating skills, it is probably more than 98% luck. But it is possible, and it would be out of the Mafia's [yours?] hands.
As of now I have more than three suspects in mind, which obviously means I am wrong on at least one or two, so I haven't ruled out the fact that you just mayyyyyy be innocent. But like I said before, and I still feel is very true:
At least one, if not two, of the original three [Indi-Kdogg-Wolf] are guilty, I believe.
I would be a lot more comfortable finding Higgi to be innocent if he'd stop hammering away at the point that Wolf & I are BOTH Mafia. Wolf very well could be Mafia, but I know I'm not so I know he's at the very least half-wrong. He's been hammering away at this point all game... like he's got an agenda or something:
I can also see you making a move like this if you guys were in really deep. Like if BOTH you AND WOLF are mafia. That would make sense to me, cuz obv it would be your only solution to saving the both of you.
Basically, both Kdogg and Wolf have been on record voting for each other. I say 'on record' because they could have done this to use as a future defense, i.e. "i voted him, we can't be working together."
They also have a vote for me [higgi] in common, which strikes me as odd, because I haven't voted either of them, which is another reason I believe Kdogg was steering attention my way and away from him and Wolf.
He seems pretty sure about TWO people working together this early in the game, and I know he's wrong about this one. He has been persistently operating on the idea that Wolf & I are both Mafia. For a while there, he was accusing me of "saving" Wolf even though I was merely voting myself into a runoff. to cause a runoff & save myself.
I would think, after a round of Higgi repeatedly trying to tie me to Wolf, that a kdogg/Wolf runoff would thoroughly and utterly discredit his stance. Yet he said nothing about it when I brought this up. In fact, he just ignored it and suggested I was guilty for pointing it out.
I haven't seen so much as a retraction from Higgi for this even though what he's been saying has been so obviously wrong, let alone any type of action to display changed intentions.
Unless any of you out there have a good explanation for how Wolf & I are together in this runoff AND Mafia in cahoots, I suggest we all be wary of Higgi.
Basically Kdogg, if the mafia were chosen, maybe two, possibly even all three into a runoff, it wouldn't be there choice, would it now? It would be the townies who voted them there. I'm not saying it was impeccable investigating skills, it is probably more than 98% luck. But it is possible, and it would be out of the Mafia's [yours?] hands.
As of now I have more than three suspects in mind, which obviously means I am wrong on at least one or two, so I haven't ruled out the fact that you just mayyyyyy be innocent. But like I said before, and I still feel is very true:
At least one, if not two, of the original three [Indi-Kdogg-Wolf] are guilty, I believe.
Do any among you really think that a Mafia would engineer a triple-runoff in which two of their own were the only candidates? After starting with four candidates and having a viable alternate? Please, Higgi... we're not retarded here.
...and if Higgi is guilty, he is most likely doing it with assistance from Kelaroo and Hippie. Kel changed her vote to keep Higgi out of the runoff, while Hippie's been actively trying to discredit my notion that Higgi's departure from the run off merits suspicion.
If Higgi is innocent, I think Indigrainbow or Bacon are the ones we need to be looking at here. But I really don't think Higgi is innocent at this point.
The way votes are falling, it seems that the Mafia would rather kill Wolf, Indigrainbow and/or myself this round. They're steering the vote that way, at least. Higgi being last in this runoff - and having less votes now than when it began - arouses my suspicion.
So, based on my assumption that the person in the runoff with the fewest votes is most likely to be Mafia:
kdogg >>> Higgi
Hopefully I'm not the only one who sees this. Join me if you think I'm onto something.
Explain this, Kdogg. You say "THEY'RE steering the vote away," and this is when I called you out for steering attention away from YOURSELF, which also led me to believe WOLF, because he was included in this runoff also.
Despite your adamant statistical rants, you still chose to vote me, with a WEAK justification - "I had the fewest votes, so I am likely to be mafia."
seriously? and you wonder why I have been all over you this game.
Furthermore, your rants on this page definitely make me think of the old Kdogg strategy...
Agreed, Bacon. Bek hasn't always remained so steadfast in these votes for me, and that makes me concerned.
Bek, what's up? I've saved you before in similar situations.
Seems like just this past weekend you were drunk and offering/threatening to send me lewd & lascivious pics of yourself... where's the love now?
I have NO idea what YOU are talking about but....
if it is gonna come down to you and wolf, I change my vote to wolf. A. he was a contributing factor to my death last game B. I seriously believe kdogg is innocent and urge the inspector to ask about him. Inspector, you need to know if he is on your side or not. It will make everything easier to see... just sayin'.
kdoggy, I just kept my vote for you because I didn't really have anyone else to vote for, I wouldn't be surprised if everyone in a run off this round is innocent... except indi because I'm still...
Kdogg- for the record I have seen your stats in plenty of games I've played in the past 18 months! I'm not working with anyone or any veterans. Bek- yeah I do vote higgi, but if I saw it wasn't for the good of the townspeople I would change my vote in the run-off. Especially after this longest day one in history! I will add more when I'm not posting from my phone! Edit: Bek- nice save!
