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Post by Paroxysm714 on Jan 23, 2015 12:51:03 GMT -5
As the next few months pass by, I will try to keep this list updated.
What I've done is looked at each artist's order in the lineup and how many people have added them to their schedule. EDIT: I counted how many of the "billed-higher artists" have been surpassed by each artist to get an idea of who is becoming more or less popular as the festival gets closer. For example, an artist billed 20th who has the 16th highest number of schedule adds has passed 4 out of 19 possible artists, giving a percentage of 21.1%. An artist billed 50th who has the 70th highest number of schedule adds has been passed by 20 out of 48 artists (98 total, so far), giving a percentage of -41.7%
Whether these schedule adds are representative of the whole Bonnaroo community or not, I figured this would at least be interesting to see which artists have more buzz about them and to which artists the schedule add folks have given a collective "Meh."
Post by governmint on Jan 23, 2015 13:00:21 GMT -5
This is pretty interesting if nothing else. It definitely tilts toward acts with name recognition. The dichotomy between Atomic Bomb!'s (presumably) all star lineup and Glass Animals' radio luv in 2014 is a great example of that. Personally, I'm kinda sad to see my boy Sturgill Simpson so far down on the Meh list.
My guess is that they would be btwn 1-9 spots different in terms of popularity v lineup placement. Looks like he listed ones that were dead on and ones that had a 10+ spot difference.
Post by Dave Maynar on Jan 23, 2015 13:05:21 GMT -5
Great idea for a thread, Paroxysm714. I'll be interested to see how it shifts over time, if there's a big change Aust schedule time and if it actually translates to crowd size at the festival.
Post by Paroxysm714 on Jan 23, 2015 13:06:34 GMT -5
Crazy that (at the moment at least) there's 5 artists with scores of 0. That seems like more than I would think. I can add more categories if y'all want. I figured I'd keep it concise for now.
Post by billypilgrim on Jan 23, 2015 14:22:57 GMT -5
It's interesting that what I consider some of the best musicians playing are at the bottom of "meh."
Medeski, Scofield, Martin, & Wood (-28) Jerry Douglas presents Earls of Leicester (-37) Atomic Bomb! (-44) (Admittedly, I'm not sure who will be playing, but I know they will be great.)
I have no idea what this means. But I have always loved the fact that some of my favorite acts at Roo over the years have been sparsely attended - a phenomenon I've dubbed the Spectrum Road effect.
Last year I was watching where Nick Cave & The Bad Seeds were ranked by those putting them on their bonnaroo.com schedule-thingy. They had a sliding row of artists at the top of the display with the number of accounts who had added each artist; despite being ranked 12th on the lineup poster, they were 75th by the count of those saying they were going to this set. Looking back at the eventual crowd size for the show, -63 is a pretty good indicator of a loosely packed tent.
Well I was bored at work yesterday so this shows how many people on bonnaroo.com that have added each artist. I think it gives a bit of incite into the ordering though not a perfect sample base.
I've been lurking for a few years and I will admit I don't have much music knowledge.. Lonely Forest at Roo 2012 was the first concert let alone festival I'd ever been too (Not a great start) but the rest of the weekend has kept me coming back ever sense.
I tend not to get to adventurous in what I listen to until the Lineup comes out. CD's in my car..(yeah i still buy CD's)
(When I'm not listening to MLB-Radio/NPR on XM) Vessel - Twenty One Pilots Because the Internet - Childish Gambino Old - Danny Brown Marshal Mathers LP2, XV - Eminem Born to Die, Ultaviolet - Lana Del Ray Joshua Tree - U2 Elephant - The White Sripes Alt Nation on XM
I think inforoo forgets they are not the typical bonnaroovian or at least not who they are trying to sell tickets to. There are bands on inforoo that the majority of you like and talk about frequently. My Morning Jacket comes to mind. It took me so long to figure out who "MMJ" was. So when you guys talk about the ordering you have to realize your not the usual fan in that you know far more about the music and the current chart toppers (hozier) don't mean as much to you. Where the casual fan debating bonnaroo might be convinced by that because they at least recognize the name.
I guess my point is.. Well im not sure what it is now... Just kinda still typing.. I should get back to work.
Post by Dave Maynar on Jan 23, 2015 16:40:28 GMT -5
After thinking on it, there are some surprises and some that I really expected. Atomic Bomb! being low is not shocking at all. If they add some names to it on the line-up (especially if it's David Byrne), that will jump considerably. I am personally surprised about Sturgill Simpson. He's been doing really well with ticket sales on his latest tour. He sold out the 600 seat theatre he is playing here two months ago, and he moved venues for his upcoming Detroit show due to demand. I'm not saying I am totally sold on where he is on the lineup, but 32 spots lower is crazy talk.
The overall + or - for gauging the artists is helpful but it doesn't really take into account lineup placement. An act in the top 3rd can only rise a few spots but can fall much more. Opposite with an act on the bottom of the poster. Looking at actual spots gained/lost vs. maximum potential spots that could be gained/lost would be more informative. Earth, Wind & Fire and Bleachers are both +21 but considering the lineup placements, EWF's rise is much more substantial.
Excellent point. I'll re-configure my stats accordingly and update in a bit!
I think the reasoning is the average type of people who use the add feature. There are plenty of people at Bonnaroo who never touch that and they tend to go see the types of acts ranked lower. I think a lot of the jam band and bluegrass/country fans are in that category.
I think the reasoning is the average type of people who use the add feature. There are plenty of people at Bonnaroo who never touch that and they tend to go see the types of acts ranked lower. I think a lot of the jam band and bluegrass/country fans are in that category.
I was thinking along those lines also but was struggling to figure if I could pick out any demographic that I feel would fall very into the use or not use app category but I couldnt think of any off the top of my head.
I am also curious about the scores shifting specifically right before and then after the schedule is released.
Personally I download fest apps for the notifications and dont do anything schedule related with it. If it is my first time at a fest ill look over the map beforehand. To support your theory I primarily fit into the jam demographic.
I am personally surprised about Sturgill Simpson. He's been doing really well with ticket sales on his latest tour. He sold out the 600 seat theatre he is playing here two months ago, and he moved venues for his upcoming Detroit show due to demand. I'm not saying I am totally sold on where he is on the lineup, but 32 spots lower is crazy talk.
Don't be. His show is going to be the one (or possibly two if Punch Brothers fanbase shows) at the Sitch tent that is packed. I'd be curious, if anyone did this kind of analysis last year, to see where Lake Street Dive ranked in adds at this point in the life of the lineup. I doubt it was much higher than Sturgill is now, but they were packed in tight, more so than Shovels & Rope, which surprised me.
This is an interesting thread but I would say we need to look at the # of scheduled (on the app) artists. Maybe divide that # by the number the average user schedules (not necessarily attends--20????) and then divide by the total attendance. Then you would have a rough (very rough) idea of what % of attendees use the scheduling portion of the app.
I agree that the largest bias in this whole thing is the fact that the average person who adds their schedule on the app is not really representative of your average Roo goer. If we could hunt down this number you're referring to then I could modify things or at least add more to what we have.
One statistic I'm also looking at that may not have much merit is (Artist Schedule Adds/Total Schedule Adds) x 80,000, estimating attendance at 80,000 and fully extrapolating crowd size. Last year this predicted stuff like: NMH - 24,000 people; Phoenix - 41,000 people, Nick Cave - 7,700. Seems like there's definitely some error, but it may be a good start. It's also fun because as the fest got closer I got to see the "virtual crowds" grow at shows like First Aid Kit & Warpaint, and shrink at shows like Goat & Darkside.
After thinking on it, there are some surprises and some that I really expected. Atomic Bomb! being low is not shocking at all. If they add some names to it on the line-up (especially if it's David Byrne), that will jump considerably. I am personally surprised about Sturgill Simpson. He's been doing really well with ticket sales on his latest tour. He sold out the 600 seat theatre he is playing here two months ago, and he moved venues for his upcoming Detroit show due to demand. I'm not saying I am totally sold on where he is on the lineup, but 32 spots lower is crazy talk.
Sturgil is up for a Grammy, so if he wins I can see his popularity rise.
I am personally surprised about Sturgill Simpson. He's been doing really well with ticket sales on his latest tour. He sold out the 600 seat theatre he is playing here two months ago, and he moved venues for his upcoming Detroit show due to demand. I'm not saying I am totally sold on where he is on the lineup, but 32 spots lower is crazy talk.
Don't be. His show is going to be the one (or possibly two if Punch Brothers fanbase shows) at the Sitch tent that is packed. I'd be curious, if anyone did this kind of analysis last year, to see where Lake Street Dive ranked in adds at this point in the life of the lineup. I doubt it was much higher than Sturgill is now, but they were packed in tight, more so than Shovels & Rope, which surprised me.
Yeah Lake Street Dive had a big rise in popularity that didn't start until around this time last year. So by the time they arrived at the farm they had a much bigger fanbase than when they were put on the lineup.
Also Shakey Graves will probably pack that tent just as much as Sturgill will.
Post by ColorsAndShapes on Jan 24, 2015 17:33:48 GMT -5
Assuming Byrne is there Atomic Bomb is going to be the Damon Albarn of 2015. The name is going to throw everyone off. I am still mind blown how empty that show was.
Would there be any merit in comparing the number of Facebook Likes against the number of schedule adds? Slayer has 4.7MM likes with 1478 adds whereas Hozier has 497K likes with 3990 adds. I understand Slayer has been around for a lot longer to build more of a Facebook following but it's interesting to see the comparison.
Would there be any merit in comparing the number of Facebook Likes against the number of schedule adds? Slayer has 4.7MM likes with 1478 adds whereas Hozier has 497K likes with 3990 adds. I understand Slayer has been around for a lot longer to build more of a Facebook following but it's interesting to see the comparison.
Yeah maybe a scatterplot of one against the other. I'd be curious to see if there's a strong correlation or not and who the major outliers are. I'm trying to spend less time on the Facebook these days though. 10 years of it and I'm kinda done.
Assuming Byrne is there Atomic Bomb is going to be the Damon Albarn of 2015. The name is going to throw everyone off. I am still mind blown how empty that show was.
I had a great few of the crowd from the handicapped bleachers during this show. He had a decent crowd,it was just spread out. It should have been bigger though. It was funny watching the people scurry over to the stage when they heard a Gorillaz song. This makes the point of people being drawn to what is popular or familiar.
