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I'm glad we have new people in today's runoff. Well, except for me, but I understand why I'm in it. Today is a slower work day, so I will have time to go through the thread. I'll do that now and toss out my thoughts in regards to Farris and Jim.
This doesn't have to do with the people in the runoff at the moment, but with Rummy being the whack, I assume the mafia thinks she's inspector. How did Jazmo get a free pass in this runoff when Rummy not only voted for him, but made these types of statements? Yes, she was quite sarcastic in the beginning, but this post makes me wonder:
Replacing Jimmyroo's vote. I don't like Farris being all over the place this round, so I'd rather see him in the runoff than Jimmyroo.
Jazmo >> Jimmyroo >> Farrisbueller
Wow, way to wait till the last minute on that one guys. I really don't like how that went down, and not because I got thrown back into the runoff. Because Jimmy got saved from the runoff when I wanted him in there. Especially cause Jimmy was saying some things that made little sense. I am at work and dont want make false statements, so I wont make bigger statements till later in the day.
Would have really liked for surfbum to have made his vote, town could of had a 4 person runoff even with me and Krissy in it. Initial thoughts are we either have 1 or no mafia in the runoff. I don't see a Krissy/Jim connection because of the shade she threw on Jim during the runoffs in day 1. I can quote stuff later today to show that proof. That leaves either Krissy or Jim. Out of the two, it could go either way for me until I go over things further.
This is gonna be a long post. I’m starting at the beginning of the thread and noting things that stand out for me regarding Rummy, Farris, and Jim.
Rummy stated a few times that she wasn’t convinced that the four of us in the last runoff were mafia. If she was inspector as the whack would have us believe, then I think it’s safe to assume by that she didn’t believe me, Jaz, or Potent were mafia.
All this makes a lot of sense. I definitely get the wariness of switching a vote too soon - I was worried about doing that earlier in this round, as well. I for one am not very convinced that any of the mafia members are amongst this group of four that have been under the most scrutiny (me, Krissy, Jaz, Potent), but it is what it is. Of the group being discussed, I know myself to be town, feel fairly sure that Jaz is as well, and think Krissy and Potent are about equally likely to be guilty (though by "equally" I don't mean "very" – I really wouldn't be surprised in the least if no Mafia member is in this run off), so I might as well stick with my vote on Krissy.
Rummy later says she’s most suspicious of the MIA people. Again, going off the assumption she was inspector, this makes me want to look at the quieter people a bit closer.
Also, I think the town might be so far off base that it might be beneficial to cut bait, lynch a townie, and start shining the spotlight on some people who have been less scrutinized at this point.
Yeah, I'm definitely most suspicious of the MIA people right now - not by way of their initial silence so much as their continuation of it, even as we ask for them to come out of the woodwork for just a post or two to give us some idea of their thoughts.
Neither Jim nor Farris were very talkative at this point, though Farris was quieter, so right now that’s where I’m currently looking.
Rummy again states she doubts anyone in the runoff is mafia:
Sorry, I just forgot. My move this morning was indicative of who I think should go. It should be me. I'm not mafia, but if so many of you are convinced I'm shady, then I should go and I volunteered myself to do that basically. And it's tough for me to say that. I really like playing this game and want to keep playing. And I'm not going to quit or anything and just give the mafia a free lynch. But I was reading the tea leaves and I didn't think you, JFG, Jimmyroo, or Jaz would move your vote from me, and Jaz would continue to drive the bus against me. At that point, only 2 more people would need to swing my way. I figured Rummy was probably next to move her vote on me (in the next runoff), and so then there would only be one vote needed. Granted, I'm not going to vote for myself (I don't know if that is allowed?), and I think Jim and Tainted both don't think I'm mafia (though that may change). That makes it 5-3 and leaves Surf, Bogie, and Farris. I just looked at the odds of me being able to convince all three of them that I'm not mafia as pretty low.
JFG moving his vote off of me was only to continue to a runoff - I have no reason to think it won't move back to me in a new runoff.
i wouldn't be so sure if I were you that I'll move my vote to you. I've said it about four times and I'll say it again: I don't feel confident at all that any mafia are in the group of four we have been discussing (I know I'm not, and I'm starting to back off the belief that any of you three are either). I think the town has gotten ourselves in a bit of a pickle, and I'm with you on wanting to just be done with this round and try to do better with Day 2.
Another “sarcastic” post by Rummy and restating her feelings that no one in the runoff is mafia:
THAT'S IT. I'M CHANGING MY VOTE TO jfg108 Jk. But my feelings that none of the four in the current run off are Mafia have grown stronger. It is true that Potent's strategy/scheme here, if he were Mafia, would be extremely risky. And a lil stupid maybe. Jaz and Krissy have both been talking a fair amount, so it is easy to pick apart shit that they's said or done (same could be said about me). Potent has done some erratic, maybe sketchy stuff but none of it really leads me to believe that he's Mafia-sketchy. It has just been a weird round, especially by way of our missing Ref.
First thing I see with Farris: IF we go with the assumption that Potent was mafia, the post below by Farris can be seen as an attempt to save him. He also states that people who had locked their votes onto potent supported the outright lynch – which, in my case, wasn’t true. I didn’t support the outright lynch although my vote was locked.
Potent wasn't looking very good early on. He too changed his strategy from previous games but explained it to my satisfaction (due to me also being displeased with the lack of talkers and the skipping of rounds late in the game because of that) Once he offered himself up for the lynch, a couple people hopped on that train, those in the runoff at that. And that is what is bothering me. Why would a mafia member give himself up so early, I would want to go the max amount of rounds. Unless there were too much mafia heat in the runoff that he was trying to distract from. In which case, other mafia could have already been taken out of the runoff and/or they are still in the runoff. What I am getting at, is Potent is much too easy of a target, much like me last game, for there to be THAT much suspicion on him so early and for him to be 100% mafia. And for us to limit the towns information by offing him outright is silly. If the town hasn't noticed, Potent backed off of lynching himself which would eliminate the possibility he was trying to be a distraction and go out quickly. Others backed off later as well but still those in the runoff that supported the outright lynch, have locked their votes in to him. Could this be for mafia preservation reasons? Possibly, but I don't know have enough to say one way or the other.
Back to Rummy for a moment. She makes mention that she’s going to focus on the quieter folks next round. She was whacked before she could point any fingers at a quieter mafia.
I will say that what kinda sucks is that the four players who got put into run-offs and were the most scrutinized are precisely the four that participated the most in the thread so far and wanted to facilitate conversation. Of course I get why that happened - it is easy to generate theories and suspicions regarding those who are putting their thoughts out there, but as many people have said, I just really don't feel confident that any of those four are Mafia. And now one is about to be lynched. It is unfortunate. Next round, I will definitely be making an effort to focus on what might be going on with the quieter folks.
Jim made some crazy moves throughout day 1 which make it hard to follow or understand. He had that last minute vote for Potent, which he explained (it’s a really long post so I’m not going to quote it, but it’s towards the top of page 16.)
The thing with Jim is that he tends to be an erratic player – regardless of his affiliation with town or mafia. It makes me hesitant to automatically assume he’s mafia, but it also makes me keep an eye on him to see if he trips himself up.
Going in to Day 2…
Farris says he’s gone through the thread, then accuses Tainted of avoiding a question from Jazmo. It’s later proven that wasn’t the case and Farris agrees he was incorrect. This can be viewed two ways: 1) An honest mistake or 2) Trying to pull one over and getting caught so conceding. I’m not really leaning towards one over the other at the moment, but it does make me raise an eyebrow at Farris a bit more.
After spending an hour avoiding work to go through the thread, I feel slightly more suspicious of Farris than of Jim. I don’t like the way Jim plays, but he seems to be suspicious in every game regardless of his role.
This doesn't have to do with the people in the runoff at the moment, but with Rummy being the whack, I assume the mafia thinks she's inspector. How did Jazmo get a free pass in this runoff when Rummy not only voted for him, but made these types of statements? Yes, she was quite sarcastic in the beginning, but this post makes me wonder:
Jk, I'm not really out to get him - or maybe I am?
I say 4 person run off.
Probably because she locked her vote on you when you and potent had four votes each and I had only had three. Someone who wanted me in the runoff wouldn't do that. She also finished the day saying she didn't think me or potent were Mafia but wishes that you were still in the runoff. To me that reads more like she wasn't suspicious of me, but it's fairly condemning of you.
Replacing Jimmyroo's vote. I don't like Farris being all over the place this round, so I'd rather see him in the runoff than Jimmyroo.
Jazmo >> Jimmyroo >> Farrisbueller
Wow, way to wait till the last minute on that one guys. I really don't like how that went down, and not because I got thrown back into the runoff. Because Jimmy got saved from the runoff when I wanted him in there. Especially cause Jimmy was saying some things that made little sense. I am at work and dont want make false statements, so I wont make bigger statements till later in the day.
Would have really liked for surfbum to have made his vote, town could of had a 4 person runoff even with me and Krissy in it. Initial thoughts are we either have 1 or no mafia in the runoff. I don't see a Krissy/Jim connection because of the shade she threw on Jim during the runoffs in day 1. I can quote stuff later today to show that proof. That leaves either Krissy or Jim. Out of the two, it could go either way for me until I go over things further.
I understand you not liking the vote switches, but I moved to you because the wide net you're casting concerns me more than Jimmyroo. You've been all over the place this round so I wanted to see where you would place your vote if forced to do so. As for the timing, I stayed up as late as possible last night to watch this game and see what happens, as evidenced by me being the last person to post last night. When Jimmy moved his vote, it was about an hour before the deadline and I was getting ready for work when I saw it, so if I was going to move my vote I had no choice but to do it then. I would have much rather had you and Jimmy both in the runoff.
This doesn't have to do with the people in the runoff at the moment, but with Rummy being the whack, I assume the mafia thinks she's inspector. How did Jazmo get a free pass in this runoff when Rummy not only voted for him, but made these types of statements? Yes, she was quite sarcastic in the beginning, but this post makes me wonder:
Probably because she locked her vote on you when you and potent had four votes each and I had only had three. Someone who wanted me in the runoff wouldn't do that. She also finished the day saying she didn't think me or potent were Mafia but wishes that you were still in the runoff. To me that reads more like she wasn't suspicious of me, but it's fairly condemning of you.
Post by Farrisbueller on Apr 10, 2015 11:30:56 GMT -5
Just a thought, the Rummy wack was a smart mafia move, she had specifically called out both sides (people in and people out of the runoff) at points during day 1. Making it easy for mafia to use the side that's most beneficial for them as their argument. Although she was leaning towards no mafia in the day 1 runoff, its still not very clear why she got whacked other than they probably thought she was inspector.
Post by Tainted Opossum on Apr 10, 2015 11:35:39 GMT -5
When she asked those questions, I thought she was pretty much a lock for a whack based simply on the nature of asking such things. It provided a great smoke screen, and it's frustrating to try and make sense out of how to proceed.
Also - I'd like to hear (preferably with quotes) what makes me suspicious so I can respond to them.
Read the last 3 or so pages again.
Rummy explicitly said she thinks you're most likely to be mafia.
She was voting for you when it was a 3 person runoff.
When you were stacked up to 5 votes, Rummy locked her vote on you.
I also think the fact that she voted for Jaz instead of Potent during that final runoff may indicate how she felt about Krissy. Potent was strongly against Krissy and Rummy decided to vote for Jazmo, possibly thinking that Potent is more on her wavelength. (This last one is obviously more tenuous).
Just a thought, the Rummy wack was a smart mafia move, she had specifically called out both sides (people in and people out of the runoff) at points during day 1. Making it easy for mafia to use the side that's most beneficial for them as their argument. Although she was leaning towards no mafia in the day 1 runoff, its still not very clear why she got whacked other than they probably thought she was inspector.
If that's the case, which it may be, then inspector should still be alive, which is great news. If she was inspector, then we have a lead on who may be mafia, which is better than nothing.
Either way, we are best served acting like Rummy was inspector. Worst case scenario the inspector comes out later in the game and the town wins anyway.
Rummy consistently said throughout Day 1 that she didn't think anyone in the runoff was mafia. I understand her final statement can be viewed as condemning to me, but I read it to be a similar statement to what I made regarding Potent. IF anyone in the runoff was mafia, she felt I'd be most likely. I don't feel as though that one statement can be seen as a strong case against me when she said 4-5 times throughout the Day that she didn't believe anyone in the runoff was mafia.
I've seen people look at the Rummy whack in both ways - as though she were the inspector and as though it was a red herring. I think it's tough to work off of two different assumptions as that'll keep us in circles. I've not decided whether or not I think Rummy was inspector or not. Honestly, the more I read and ponder, I'm leaning more towards she wasn't simply because her whack leads to me and I know I'm a townie.
For those who think I'm mafia - do you have thoughts on who I would be theoretically connected to?
Rummy consistently said throughout Day 1 that she didn't think anyone in the runoff was mafia. I understand her final statement can be viewed as condemning to me, but I read it to be a similar statement to what I made regarding Potent. IF anyone in the runoff was mafia, she felt I'd be most likely. I don't feel as though that one statement can be seen as a strong case against me when she said 4-5 times throughout the Day that she didn't believe anyone in the runoff was mafia.
I've seen people look at the Rummy whack in both ways - as though she were the inspector and as though it was a red herring. I think it's tough to work off of two different assumptions as that'll keep us in circles. I've not decided whether or not I think Rummy was inspector or not. Honestly, the more I read and ponder, I'm leaning more towards she wasn't simply because her whack leads to me and I know I'm a townie.
For those who think I'm mafia - do you have thoughts on who I would be theoretically connected to?
I originally thought you may be connected to Jaz, as in the beginning I found each of you constantly coming back to theories surrounding my connections with (I think Potent?). At this point, I've seen you each distance yourselves accordingly, though I've seen other acts that lead me to believe you aren't connected. I have seen that Jim can be erratic regardless of actual role, but I really found his swing vote late to be concerning. I'm going to look back and see where the voting pattern is there in relation to the whack. At this point, I don't know what to believe. I know that Farris has done some questionable stuff, but nothing that would lead me to believe he is actually mafia. I've seen you and Jaz change up your play style that has been more of a reserved one, at least for the past couple days. I haven't played with either of you to know if thats simply your play tactic or not, the shift was simply noted. Surf hasn't had much to say this game, which is unfortunate because regardless of his role he is damaging progress on towns end. Jimmy has been more active this round, exchanging blows with Farris that I thought was interesting but didn't provide much. I find Jim to be selectively quiet. I believe in my readings I found JFG to be the very same, but he hasn't popped up on my radar as much as anyone else. I'll go back and reread for the above as well as JFGs approach, but that whack didn't do much beyond helping to light the torches.
I am really sorry for being so absent. There has been some personal stuff going on and the bottom line is I haven't made the time (or thought about it his game much at all). I really am sorry, I feel like a jerk. I will do my best to be more present from here on out. Other than an Umphreys/Lettuce show tomorrow I'll be quite available, watching the Coachella streams.
I have to read through the thread because I have no clue what's going on at this point. I won't even put in a vote right now because there is nothing that will keep me from putting one in before the deadline.
I am really sorry for being so absent. There has been some personal stuff going on and the bottom line is I haven't made the time (or thought about it his game much at all). I really am sorry, I feel like a jerk. I will do my best to be more present from here on out. Other than an Umphreys/Lettuce show tomorrow I'll be quite available, watching the Coachella streams.
I have to read through the thread because I have no clue what's going on at this point. I won't even put in a vote right now because there is nothing that will keep me from putting one in before the deadline.
Post by Farrisbueller on Apr 12, 2015 9:23:45 GMT -5
Been busy and haven't bothered looking at this thead hard enough to make a significant post. I will be going over things today and post with ample time for discussion.
Btw, since I've never been in a 3 way runoff on day 2 I have a question. Could the three people in the runoff all get sent through to the next round? Because if surf votes for whoever I don't vote for, that seems to be what would happen.
Been busy and haven't bothered looking at this thead hard enough to make a significant post. I will be going over things today and post with ample time for discussion.
Btw, since I've never been in a 3 way runoff on day 2 I have a question. Could the three people in the runoff all get sent through to the next round? Because if surf votes for whoever I don't vote for, that seems to be what would happen.
In theory that's possible but it never works out that way because everyone knows that's useless. It either should go to a 2-way or a straight vote off
There are several reasons, but the glaring one is that Krissyjo drew a vote from the subsequent whacked. I'm thinking she could be worried that rummaging was inspector
Post by Farrisbueller on Apr 12, 2015 20:42:01 GMT -5
Okay well its been previously stated that voting for the 3rd person in the three person runoff this round wasnt going to get us anywhere but I am getting stronger feelings towards Jim than I am Krissy. Going back, I started looking for connections between who we have in the runoff and other people. Some interesting things popped up.
I don't have much to contribute at this point, though I feel I've provided a logical stance for why I am indeed townie. I do appreciate that the thought has been discussed ad nauseam, though it doesn't appear to be picking up as well as we would all hope.
Now this could seem like nothing to some, but it is future posts that have me thinking more that this was a mafia reaction type move to try to not be as "in the woodwork"
So what's everyone's opinion on how to continue this day? A runoff between rummaging and Krissy seems like the direction we're taking at the moment. I think at this point it's pretty safe to clear Potent, and I think Jazmo should stay for now because he's been a solid facilitator of discussion thus far.
Of the four in the runoff my rankings from most to least suspicious would be 1. Krissy 2. Rummaging 3. Jazmo 4. Potent
Jim posts this which seemed to be a red flag to most, yet Tainted never even mentions Jim and his actions in this post of his shortly after Jims.
Krissy - I find you and Jazmo to be equally concerning, though Jazmo has obviously taken a back seat in this round and I am sadly limited to only one vote. My suspicions for you are based on your general demeanor, your excessive use of the smiley's at the end of what I perceived to attempted influential posts, and your approach to reminding people yesterday on a couple posts (as I recall) that 1) this is how many people are in the runoff and 2) this is who you believe should be in and 3) you don't want to be in a 4) what does anyone else think? all of those thoughts, when combined and repeated, set off an alarm. This is all brought together by the final reason, which is that I am indeed town and as a result am trying to think as objectively as possible so as to not witch hunt townies - Even when being objective, your approach has managed to be (to me) as if not more suspicious than the people who have stayed more or less silent.
The very next two Tainted post ends up being a juicy one IMO.
Can you guys catch me up on why Jim's half assed dismissal of potent is that alarming and sketchy? I'm just surprised and trying to understand the shock value of it. I'm absolutely open to finding out more of the why and am in no way defending Jim
I just read it as he was clearing that person for this particular vote, and used weak language in doing so. I can see where everyone is coming from, but playing devils advocate helps to poke holes if necessary. I'm not dismissing the possibility of jim being mafia, but if he is his approach doesn't entirely click with what I'd expect mafia to do. I'll go back and read the thread with the approach that jim is mafia and share any worthy observation
To me, that sounds exactly like he is moving heat off of Jim, and gave a pretty flat reason of Jim "not entirely clicking" with what he expects from a mafia member. This next one is three times a charm for me and is selling me very well on their being a Jim and Taint connection.
Also I'm leaving work now and have a busy night ahead of me so I won't be on much until late tonight. Just wanted to give everyone the heads up in case I appear to go inactive.
Jim - you're probably going to be waiting a while, I'm sure I'm not alone when I say you're leaving us at the edge of our seat.
But Jaz had already posted a reply which prompted Taint to say he spoke too soon.
I feel this constant defending and deferring of pressure away from Jim is very suspicious and is part of what is leading me to put my vote on Jim, the other reasons are Jims actions. His lack of quality responses or quality accusations, he has flat out been much less of a help to the town than Krissy has. Makes me look harder at Surf because of the way I feel and how he voted but he could just not be following well like he has said (which is still bad and eyeraising), or he could be a deceiving mafia.
Overall, I feel much more comfortable placing my vote on Jim, and ask the town to give the way I have looked at things some merit. Also, Tainted putting his vote on Jim this round could easily be so that he could save Jim in a future runoff if that occurred. I am not saying anything definite one way or the other, but have found a strong connection that deserves to be brought to the forefront.
What I have to say is nothing groundbreaking. The reason I initially cleared potent was because of how similar he was acting to previous games. I saw nothing alarming except his vote changes. The reason I asked Jazmo the question is because he is up in arms about Potent saving you for the runoff, but doesn't ever mention that Potent initially moved off of Jazmo to put you in the runoff instead.
That's because I know I'm town, so it's not a suspicious move to me. And the same question works for you in reverse - why are you not suspicious that potent saved tainted from the runoff, when after he switched to Tainted you immediately replaced his vote for me with yours? You seemed to be suspicious of his movement then - why is that not the case with Tainted?
Also, this right here. Jazmo makes a very good point. Also only further strengthens the Taint/Jim connection
Post by Farrisbueller on Apr 12, 2015 21:16:02 GMT -5
Just to give you guys some perspective, my feelings as of now are that Potent could have been mafia but it is unlikely. Rummy was saying all throughout day 1 how she wanted to see others in the day 2 runoff, people who also said this were Potent, Jazmo, Krissy, and I by my count (could be more). Although I initially thought the rummy whack was smart, in the end it is still leading me back to those who were not in the first runoff, unlike what some others may have said. Rummy was the biggest flag bearer of the "its probably people not in the day 1 runoff" so it makes sense mafia would whack her. I cant clear Krissy though, even this much later than when Jim "cleared" Potent, and I still dont feel comfortable clearing any of you. I really hope inspector is still alive because we will be in good shape come day three if so.
