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Post by Paroxysm714 on Apr 19, 2015 20:57:17 GMT -5
What's the source on current crowd estimates btw? I guess there have been some smaller Bonnaroos like 10 years ago (2005 was 65,000 or so?), so maybe 50,000 isn't a bad estimate for attendance at the current moment, although i'm sure that'll go up.
Would it make sense to say that 20,000 schedule adds and 50,000 attendance to date would mean 40% of the festival adds schedules via the site? If so then we can do a regression and predict the total attendance by the time Roo happens. Is this silly?
I feel like they'd sell fewer tickets as it gets closer to the festival. Bonnaroo isn't really a spur of the moment thing, considering the planning and time off it entails.
Also, not surprised to hear of low ticket sales. Higher price, more competition, and arguably a weaker lineup than usual. Only makes sense they wouldn't sell as well. Honestly, I don't think many shows this year are going to feel that crowded, save Odesza, Run The Jewels, Jungle and potentially Sylvan Esso depending on the schedule.
Last Edit: Apr 19, 2015 22:47:29 GMT -5 by 70x7 - Back to Top
The funny part to me is that it took a pretty hefty price in erase and lackluster lineup (when compared to other years) to cause ticket sales to drop but in 2008, Coachella out together the best top four imagineable as well as a kickass undercard and that is the only year they haven't sold out since 2003.
Anyway, excited for low ticket sales cause that gives us more room at shows and hopefully it shows too that they can't screw us on the ticket price without giving a great lineup and expect good ticket sales. But, I feel bad for the hit that they are likely to take if sales remain really low
The funny part to me is that it took a pretty hefty price in erase and lackluster lineup (when compared to other years) to cause ticket sales to drop but in 2008, Coachella out together the best top four imagineable as well as a kickass undercard and that is the only year they haven't sold out since 2003.
Anyway, excited for low ticket sales cause that gives us more room at shows and hopefully it shows too that they can't screw us on the ticket price without giving a great lineup and expect good ticket sales. But, I feel bad for the hit that they are likely to take if sales remain really low
A lot of people blame the recession for Coachella not selling out that year, which is pretty different from what Roo is dealing with.
The funny part to me is that it took a pretty hefty price in erase and lackluster lineup (when compared to other years) to cause ticket sales to drop but in 2008, Coachella out together the best top four imagineable as well as a kickass undercard and that is the only year they haven't sold out since 2003.
Anyway, excited for low ticket sales cause that gives us more room at shows and hopefully it shows too that they can't screw us on the ticket price without giving a great lineup and expect good ticket sales. But, I feel bad for the hit that they are likely to take if sales remain really low
1/30: Cold War Kids
2/6: Cherub
4/22: The Mountain Goats
5/25: Laura Jane Grace "Killing Me Loudly"
5/31: The Decemberists
6/11-6/14: BONNAROO 2015
6/28: Against Me!
6/30: Against Me!
pondo ROCKS
Bonnafunky Dirtyroo has viking horns and a clock
Providing an outlet and a voice for music lovers to unite under the common theme of music for all. Join The Pondo Army to show your allegiance to musical freedom! Fighting for no censorship of the arts & music education in schools, The Pondo Army will triumph! The Pondo Army Movement
Follow me on twitter@Pondoknowsbest
1/30: Cold War Kids
2/6: Cherub
4/22: The Mountain Goats
5/25: Laura Jane Grace "Killing Me Loudly"
5/31: The Decemberists
6/11-6/14: BONNAROO 2015
6/28: Against Me!
6/30: Against Me!
Might I be the voice of reason and ask for some source for this 50,000 number? Seems a little pointless to extrapolate of fof 50,000 without having something to confirm that's even reasonable. Also, no real way or knowjng if this is a detriment to the producers as we don't have visibility into costs. With a meaningful increase in price, a potential lower overhead due to a saving on talent costs, their margin may be closer to prior years even with a significant lower attendance.
You have what a 13% increase is ticket price. That in conjunction with a 10% or greater reduction in overhead.
Let's assume they did between 25 - 30 million in top line in a prior year with 10,000,000 in talent. 10,000,000 in production and marketing. Leaving 5 - 100000 in gross profit before they figure in staff.
Under the scenario proposed above and a final attendance of 65000 you have a topline estimate with the new ticket prices of close to 25 million and a suggested reduction in overhead of 1,000,000 which gets you to awfully close to the same gross profit in a year where you are working through an expansion into a new festival and preparing for a larger year for your 15th edition.
I wouldn't worry about roo, that back of the napkin estimate has them doing fine.
Might I be the voice of reason and ask for some source for this 50,000 number? Seems a little pointless to extrapolate of fof 50,000 without having something to confirm that's even reasonable. Also, no real way or knowjng if this is a detriment to the producers as we don't have visibility into costs. With a meaningful increase in price, a potential lower overhead due to a saving on talent costs, their margin may be closer to prior years even with a significant lower attendance.
You have what a 13% increase is ticket price. That in conjunction with a 10% or greater reduction in overhead.
Let's assume they did between 25 - 30 million in top line in a prior year with 10,000,000 in talent. 10,000,000 in production and marketing. Leaving 5 - 100000 in gross profit before they figure in staff.
Under the scenario proposed above and a final attendance of 65000 you have a topline estimate with the new ticket prices of close to 25 million and a suggested reduction in overhead of 1,000,000 which gets you to awfully close to the same gross profit in a year where you are working through an expansion into a new festival and preparing for a larger year for your 15th edition.
I wouldn't worry about roo, that back of the napkin estimate has them doing fine.
1/30: Cold War Kids
2/6: Cherub
4/22: The Mountain Goats
5/25: Laura Jane Grace "Killing Me Loudly"
5/31: The Decemberists
6/11-6/14: BONNAROO 2015
6/28: Against Me!
6/30: Against Me!
Post by Dale Cooper on Apr 20, 2015 8:15:06 GMT -5
I do think some sort of source for 50,000 tickets sold would be nice. It sounds easy to believe thanks to an underwhelming top 10, but there's no hard numbers.
Post by 3post1jack1 on Apr 20, 2015 8:47:29 GMT -5
Delicious Meatball Sub if you could post the full name and contact information for your source so we could all double check those figures that would be awesome. thx man.
Might I be the voice of reason and ask for some source for this 50,000 number? Seems a little pointless to extrapolate of fof 50,000 without having something to confirm that's even reasonable. Also, no real way or knowjng if this is a detriment to the producers as we don't have visibility into costs. With a meaningful increase in price, a potential lower overhead due to a saving on talent costs, their margin may be closer to prior years even with a significant lower attendance.
You have what a 13% increase is ticket price. That in conjunction with a 10% or greater reduction in overhead.
Let's assume they did between 25 - 30 million in top line in a prior year with 10,000,000 in talent. 10,000,000 in production and marketing. Leaving 5 - 100000 in gross profit before they figure in staff.
Under the scenario proposed above and a final attendance of 65000 you have a topline estimate with the new ticket prices of close to 25 million and a suggested reduction in overhead of 1,000,000 which gets you to awfully close to the same gross profit in a year where you are working through an expansion into a new festival and preparing for a larger year for your 15th edition.
I wouldn't worry about roo, that back of the napkin estimate has them doing fine.
IMHO there are going to be drops in attendance at some of the bigger fests because of the sheer number of fests going on. That being said I also think we may be approaching another festival bubble in the next year or so. There are just so many and between a combination of dilution of artists and some fests growing too big too soon.
Might I be the voice of reason and ask for some source for this 50,000 number? Seems a little pointless to extrapolate of fof 50,000 without having something to confirm that's even reasonable. Also, no real way or knowjng if this is a detriment to the producers as we don't have visibility into costs. With a meaningful increase in price, a potential lower overhead due to a saving on talent costs, their margin may be closer to prior years even with a significant lower attendance.
You have what a 13% increase is ticket price. That in conjunction with a 10% or greater reduction in overhead.
Let's assume they did between 25 - 30 million in top line in a prior year with 10,000,000 in talent. 10,000,000 in production and marketing. Leaving 5 - 100000 in gross profit before they figure in staff.
Under the scenario proposed above and a final attendance of 65000 you have a topline estimate with the new ticket prices of close to 25 million and a suggested reduction in overhead of 1,000,000 which gets you to awfully close to the same gross profit in a year where you are working through an expansion into a new festival and preparing for a larger year for your 15th edition.
I wouldn't worry about roo, that back of the napkin estimate has them doing fine.
Talk about arbitrary numbers..
Being that I dont have actuals on talent costs, or production marketing costs I would agree with your critique. I'll keep it simple. With 0 change in overhead, a $40 increase in ticket price, they can afford to drop attendance by nearly 10,000 people and have the same topline revenue. So, that means they can do the same revenue with 80,000 as they did with 90,000. If they dropped overhead in any meaningful way on the talent side, they could easily be revenue neutral at 65,000. I am not familiar with how they work staffing based on projected attendance but I have to imagine there is some cost savings that comes with fewer people. In either case, while you can't spend margin, they could easily look at doing a lower net profit year, with similar margins as a way to allow them to divert focus to a new festival and preparing for a more intense 15 year event.
Being that I dont have actuals on talent costs, or production marketing costs I would agree with your critique. I'll keep it simple. With 0 change in overhead, a $40 increase in ticket price, they can afford to drop attendance by nearly 10,000 people and have the same topline revenue. So, that means they can do the same revenue with 80,000 as they did with 90,000. If they dropped overhead in any meaningful way on the talent side, they could easily be revenue neutral at 65,000. I am not familiar with how they work staffing based on projected attendance but I have to imagine there is some cost savings that comes with fewer people. In either case, while you can't spend margin, they could easily look at doing a lower net profit year, with similar margins as a way to allow them to divert focus to a new festival and preparing for a more intense 15 year event.
I think you have good reasoning, the only other figure I would throw in the mix is sales of drinks/food/merch. Again I have no idea what kind of piece of the action AC gets from drinks/food sales or how important it is relative to other revenue figures, but lower attendance means lower revenues from those sources.
true but no real visibility into the profitability of those sources per station. with less people you could reasonably do less stations, more revenue per station at a lower cost because the flow of patrons is lower. in either case, my general point is that getting for roo because of a lower attendance. there is enough data to suggest it may be a flat year for them which isnt a loss particularly considering the diversion of focus.
Being that I dont have actuals on talent costs, or production marketing costs I would agree with your critique. I'll keep it simple. With 0 change in overhead, a $40 increase in ticket price, they can afford to drop attendance by nearly 10,000 people and have the same topline revenue. So, that means they can do the same revenue with 80,000 as they did with 90,000. If they dropped overhead in any meaningful way on the talent side, they could easily be revenue neutral at 65,000. I am not familiar with how they work staffing based on projected attendance but I have to imagine there is some cost savings that comes with fewer people. In either case, while you can't spend margin, they could easily look at doing a lower net profit year, with similar margins as a way to allow them to divert focus to a new festival and preparing for a more intense 15 year event.
I think you have good reasoning, the only other figure I would throw in the mix is sales of drinks/food/merch. Again I have no idea what kind of piece of the action AC gets from drinks/food sales or how important it is relative to other revenue figures, but lower attendance means lower revenues from those sources.
Almost all their profits are from sponsors, vendors, and other general sales during the festival. That was told to me by someone that works directly with the festival. Also, there's 2 months until the festival, and like half the damn lineup is releasing new music this spring. Ticket sales will go up.
IMHO there are going to be drops in attendance at some of the bigger fests because of the sheer number of fests going on. That being said I also think we may be approaching another festival bubble in the next year or so. There are just so many and between a combination of dilution of artists and some fests growing too big too soon.
This!
People are realizing they don't have to go all the way to Roo and are doing some of the many new more local options.
Providing an outlet and a voice for music lovers to unite under the common theme of music for all. Join The Pondo Army to show your allegiance to musical freedom! Fighting for no censorship of the arts & music education in schools, The Pondo Army will triumph! The Pondo Army Movement
Follow me on twitter@Pondoknowsbest
Post by Nautical Disaster on Apr 22, 2015 1:39:49 GMT -5
So allegedly a month ago, tix were around 50k? That leaves 3 months of sales left. I don't think this lineup is bad enough to draw less than 70k. Also please put the Wiki numbers to rest, they are clearly out of whack.
1/30: Cold War Kids
2/6: Cherub
4/22: The Mountain Goats
5/25: Laura Jane Grace "Killing Me Loudly"
5/31: The Decemberists
6/11-6/14: BONNAROO 2015
6/28: Against Me!
6/30: Against Me!
for roo because of a lower attendance. there is enough data to suggest it may be a flat year for them which isnt a loss particularly considering the diversion of focus.
