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And that would be NBF, since we can assume that Carini and Dragon were town. And if Potent wasn't Mafia, then the two remaining Mafiosi would likely split their votes, again leaving NBF as well as one of Rummy/Rothric/SFA/Farris (since I know I'm town).
If Potent wasn't mafia, why would we assume that the other two would split their votes? If neither you nor Potent was mafia, they could have voted however they wanted.
If Tainted wasn't Mafia, there would be three Mafia left. The same logic applies here as well. If Potent was Mafia, it would be most likely that NBF was Mafia with him to help avoid getting him voted out (with Dragon and Carini being town).
If Tainted, Dragon, and Carini were all townsfolk, and Potent was mafia, then I could see how you could argue that I was probably mafia too.
And then again - if Potent wasn't Mafia, the Mafia would be splitting their votes between two Townies, leaving NBF on one side and two Mafia out of Rummy/Rothric/SFA/Farris.
Again, if both runoff candidates were townies, I don't think we can necessarily assume that the mafia members were splitting their votes. It's more likely if there were three remaining mafia than if there were two, but it's just not necessarily true in either case.
This seems pretty clear to me, since I know I'm town. In order for NBF to NOT be Mafia, you'd have to convince me that either Potent was Mafia and all other Mafia alive at the time voted for him, or that Potent was town and all the Mafia alive voted for him. I don't think either of those scenarios are very likely at all.
Jazmo > NBF
I am always wary of anybody who thinks that anything is clear to him at any point in this game. And since this is your argument against me (and here is the obligatory: I know I'm a townsperson), this looks to me very much like a case of picking a person and building a case backwards against her. And as I note above, I also think your argument is faulty in that it assumes that mafia would split their votes when there were two townies in a runoff.
If Tainted was Mafia, there would be two Mafia left in this scenario. If one of those two was Potent, his other comrade would surely be voting for me. And that would be NBF, since we can assume that Carini and Dragon were town. And if Potent wasn't Mafia, then the two remaining Mafiosi would likely split their votes, again leaving NBF as well as one of Rummy/Rothric/SFA/Farris (since I know I'm town).
If Tainted wasn't Mafia, there would be three Mafia left. The same logic applies here as well. If Potent was Mafia, it would be most likely that NBF was Mafia with him to help avoid getting him voted out (with Dragon and Carini being town). And then again - if Potent wasn't Mafia, the Mafia would be splitting their votes between two Townies, leaving NBF on one side and two Mafia out of Rummy/Rothric/SFA/Farris.
Also note that NBF was who Carini voted for before she was eliminated from the runoff. Carini was then whacked after this Day.
This seems pretty clear to me, since I know I'm town. In order for NBF to NOT be Mafia, you'd have to convince me that either Potent was Mafia and all other Mafia alive at the time voted for him, or that Potent was town and all the Mafia alive voted for him. I don't think either of those scenarios are very likely at all.
Jazmo > NBF
This stuck out to me as well. My main holdout is that the mafia would have to know the tallys would be brought back up and she'd stick out for these very reasons. So considering Dragon's playing style this game, I just don't think whacking him would be worth the risk. He would seem to be a better bet to vote along with as well.
It still certainly plausible. Just playing devil advocate.
If Tainted was Mafia, there would be two Mafia left in this scenario. If one of those two was Potent, his other comrade would surely be voting for me. And that would be NBF, since we can assume that Carini and Dragon were town. And if Potent wasn't Mafia, then the two remaining Mafiosi would likely split their votes, again leaving NBF as well as one of Rummy/Rothric/SFA/Farris (since I know I'm town).
If Tainted wasn't Mafia, there would be three Mafia left. The same logic applies here as well. If Potent was Mafia, it would be most likely that NBF was Mafia with him to help avoid getting him voted out (with Dragon and Carini being town). And then again - if Potent wasn't Mafia, the Mafia would be splitting their votes between two Townies, leaving NBF on one side and two Mafia out of Rummy/Rothric/SFA/Farris.
Also note that NBF was who Carini voted for before she was eliminated from the runoff. Carini was then whacked after this Day.
This seems pretty clear to me, since I know I'm town. In order for NBF to NOT be Mafia, you'd have to convince me that either Potent was Mafia and all other Mafia alive at the time voted for him, or that Potent was town and all the Mafia alive voted for him. I don't think either of those scenarios are very likely at all.
Jazmo > NBF
This stuck out to me as well. My main holdout is that the mafia would have to know the tallys would be brought back up and she'd stick out for these very reasons. So considering Dragon's playing style this game, I just don't think whacking him would be worth the risk. He would seem to be a better bet to vote along with as well.
It still certainly plausible. Just playing devil advocate.
In your history of playing Mafia, have you ever seen three Mafia vote for the same person when there was no Mafia involved in a runoff? The whole point of Mafia is to track voting patterns, so the Mafia want to break that up. Not all vote for the same person for no reason at all - that's like painting a target on your back.
I think it's more likely that they whacked Dragon either to frame me because he was gunning for me, or because Rummy was Mafia and he ended up voting for her. I'm leaning towards the latter.
Yes, it's possible that the Mafia may have known bringing the tallies back up would point to her, but when I've been Mafia before, deciding on the whack has been focused on getting the Inspector, not looking at past tallies to try and make sure the whack won't lead back to us. It makes more sense to me to go for the Inspector and deal with the heat that will be drawn than to go for a frame and risk an Inspector reveal - especially when you're already one Mafia down.
This stuck out to me as well. My main holdout is that the mafia would have to know the tallys would be brought back up and she'd stick out for these very reasons. So considering Dragon's playing style this game, I just don't think whacking him would be worth the risk. He would seem to be a better bet to vote along with as well.
It still certainly plausible. Just playing devil advocate.
In your history of playing Mafia, have you ever seen three Mafia vote for the same person when there was no Mafia involved in a runoff? The whole point of Mafia is to track voting patterns, so the Mafia want to break that up. Not all vote for the same person for no reason at all - that's like painting a target on your back.
I think it's more likely that they whacked Dragon either to frame me because he was gunning for me, or because Rummy was Mafia and he ended up voting for her. I'm leaning towards the latter.
Yes, it's possible that the Mafia may have known bringing the tallies back up would point to her, but when I've been Mafia before, deciding on the whack has been focused on getting the Inspector, not looking at past tallies to try and make sure the whack won't lead back to us. It makes more sense to me to go for the Inspector and deal with the heat that will be drawn than to go for a frame and risk an Inspector reveal - especially when you're already one Mafia down.
If mafia know that people are going to look back at vote tallies, and they know that people are likely to make an assumption that mafia will split their votes, then it seems entirely possible to me that three mafia would all vote the same way in a runoff between two townies. From a mafia perspective, the point of mafia is not to track voting patterns. It's usually to avoid doing what people expect mafia to do. And if townies don't think about things from a mafia perspective, we will lose.
In your history of playing Mafia, have you ever seen three Mafia vote for the same person when there was no Mafia involved in a runoff? The whole point of Mafia is to track voting patterns, so the Mafia want to break that up. Not all vote for the same person for no reason at all - that's like painting a target on your back.
I think it's more likely that they whacked Dragon either to frame me because he was gunning for me, or because Rummy was Mafia and he ended up voting for her. I'm leaning towards the latter.
Yes, it's possible that the Mafia may have known bringing the tallies back up would point to her, but when I've been Mafia before, deciding on the whack has been focused on getting the Inspector, not looking at past tallies to try and make sure the whack won't lead back to us. It makes more sense to me to go for the Inspector and deal with the heat that will be drawn than to go for a frame and risk an Inspector reveal - especially when you're already one Mafia down.
If mafia know that people are going to look back at vote tallies, and they know that people are likely to make an assumption that mafia will split their votes, then it seems entirely possible to me that three mafia would all vote the same way in a runoff between two townies. From a mafia perspective, the point of mafia is not to track voting patterns. It's usually to avoid doing what people expect mafia to do. And if townies don't think about things from a mafia perspective, we will lose.
And it could be that Tainted was mafia so that whether three mafia all might vote the same way wouldn't even be at issue here.
If mafia know that people are going to look back at vote tallies, and they know that people are likely to make an assumption that mafia will split their votes, then it seems entirely possible to me that three mafia would all vote the same way in a runoff between two townies. From a mafia perspective, the point of mafia is not to track voting patterns. It's usually to avoid doing what people expect mafia to do. And if townies don't think about things from a mafia perspective, we will lose.
And it could be that Tainted was mafia so that whether three mafia all might vote the same way wouldn't even be at issue here.
My point still stands. Even if Tainted was Mafia, a Potent-mafia would have you voting for me, and if Potent was a townie I'd still somewhat expect the Mafia to split their votes, though admittedly less so than if there were three. But given that the Day 1 whack came from the pool of Farris voters and not the pool of Tainted voters, I don't think this is the case.
I hear what you're saying, I do - I've given thought to your theory, but I disagree with it.
I'm still not ready to vote, but just wanted to get some of my thoughts out there.
Here's what we know:
At least 1 Mafia, possibly 2, from the lynched: Tainted, Potent, Rummy.
At least 1 Mafia, possibly 2, from the still breathing: SFA, NBF, Jazmo, Farris, Roth.
At this point, I'm starting to go with the thought that the Inspector was either Jimmy or Carini.
I don't think Dragon was Inspector, and think he was likely just a townie. I concede it's possible he was Mafia and they whacked their own, but I just don't see how that really fits this situation. Not ruling it completely out, but seems far fetched to me at this point. If Dragon was actually Inspector, he had to have known he'd be the whack on Night 3. I just can't see a situation where Dragon was the Inspector and didn't come out on D3 after the heat he drew. I think he was town, and the Mafia are hoping to use him as confusion/frame on Jazmo.
That thought (that Dragon was not Inspector), leads me to believe that the Inspector actually is dead. If the Mafia thought the Inspector was still alive, they'd have to be gunning for them with the whack this late in the game.
Trying to decipher which of the lynched was Mafia, my gut reaction is that it was NOT Tainted. Reason being, the whack on Night 1 was Jimmy, who only voted for Farris. If Tainted was Mafia, I'd have to imagine the Mafia would pick to whack someone from the pool of voters on Tainted, not Farris.
Don't have too strong a feeling between Potent and Rummy, but my gut reaction is Potent might have been the Mafia out of the lynched group if there's only 1. If neither Tainted nor Potent were Mafia, then the whacks don't really make sense to me at all. 1 misdirection whack is understandable, but I don't see how they could afford to take two whacks like that and leave the Inspector alive. Not saying Rummy wasn't Mafia, just don't think she would have been the only one out of that group (Tainted, Potent, Rummy).
I'm leaning towards Jazmo being town, for the reason being I think Dragon was simply a misguided townie who the Mafia are hoping to use to frame him.
At this point I would prefer to have Jimmy in the runoff with me if I have to be in the runoff. Not getting much feeling towards Tainted at this point and something about Jimmy is drawing me towards him with how he got taken pretty far out of the votes this round and the rhetoric of some people like carini not mentioning him in their voting decisions. Without something definitive to go off of I'm going to move my vote in the direction I'm feeling.
Farris > Jimmy
This post stood out to me on the read through. We know Jimmy was town, and possibly the Inspector. His only vote was for Farris on D1. IF Farris is indeed Mafia, this would be a good way of possibly dragging along an Inspector prospect to the runoff. Might not be anything, but it did stand out to me.
If mafia know that people are going to look back at vote tallies, and they know that people are likely to make an assumption that mafia will split their votes, then it seems entirely possible to me that three mafia would all vote the same way in a runoff between two townies. From a mafia perspective, the point of mafia is not to track voting patterns. It's usually to avoid doing what people expect mafia to do. And if townies don't think about things from a mafia perspective, we will lose.
This is part of the game that always fucks with my head. I start to think that maybe the Mafia thought I'd think something, so they do the opposite. But then maybe they expected I'd expect it, so did the straight forward thing anyway. And so on...
Still far from certain on anything, but I'm starting to go down the path of Mafia being some combo of Potent/Farris/X.
I started out saying I wasn't ready to place my vote, but I think after getting all that down, I am. I'm still far from certain, but I do think I'd like to see Farris back in the spotlight.
Hopefully some of that made sense, I know it was rambling. Just need to get some things down to try and pick my way through it.
Don't have too strong a feeling between Potent and Rummy, but my gut reaction is Potent might have been the Mafia out of the lynched group if there's only 1. If neither Tainted nor Potent were Mafia, then the whacks don't really make sense to me at all. 1 misdirection whack is understandable, but I don't see how they could afford to take two whacks like that and leave the Inspector alive. Not saying Rummy wasn't Mafia, just don't think she would have been the only one out of that group (Tainted, Potent, Rummy).
Don't have too strong a feeling between Potent and Rummy, but my gut reaction is Potent might have been the Mafia out of the lynched group if there's only 1. If neither Tainted nor Potent were Mafia, then the whacks don't really make sense to me at all. 1 misdirection whack is understandable, but I don't see how they could afford to take two whacks like that and leave the Inspector alive. Not saying Rummy wasn't Mafia, just don't think she would have been the only one out of that group (Tainted, Potent, Rummy).
Could you please explain this further?
Any part specifically?
Trying to say that out of the group of lynched players (Tainted, Potent, Rummy), we know at least 1 was Mafia, possibly 2.
I think that if only 1 was Mafia, it's most likely to be Potent. I don't think it likely that both Tainted and Potent were town, and Rummy was Mafia. If both Tainted and Potent were town, I don't really see how the whacks the first two nights (Jimmy and Carini) would be tied to actual Mafioso. I can see the Mafia doing one misdirection whack, but not two back to back like that.
I do think it's possible that both Rummy might have been Mafia along with another, but not sure how likely that is.
Trying to say that out of the group of lynched players (Tainted, Potent, Rummy), we know at least 1 was Mafia, possibly 2.
I think that if only 1 was Mafia, it's most likely to be Potent. I don't think it likely that both Tainted and Potent were town, and Rummy was Mafia. If both Tainted and Potent were town, I don't really see how the whacks the first two nights (Jimmy and Carini) would be tied to actual Mafioso. I can see the Mafia doing one misdirection whack, but not two back to back like that.
I do think it's possible that both Rummy might have been Mafia along with another, but not sure how likely that is.
I guess I don't understand why you think they were both misdirection whacks. The only thing we know is that one Mafia is dead. Jimmy and Carini's whacks could have just referred to NBF and Farris with Rummy as the third. Or any number of scenarios. Since we don't know for sure who the Mafia are, I'm not getting how you're ruling the whacks as misdirections if Potent and Tainted were both town.
Trying to say that out of the group of lynched players (Tainted, Potent, Rummy), we know at least 1 was Mafia, possibly 2.
I think that if only 1 was Mafia, it's most likely to be Potent. I don't think it likely that both Tainted and Potent were town, and Rummy was Mafia. If both Tainted and Potent were town, I don't really see how the whacks the first two nights (Jimmy and Carini) would be tied to actual Mafioso. I can see the Mafia doing one misdirection whack, but not two back to back like that.
I do think it's possible that both Rummy might have been Mafia along with another, but not sure how likely that is.
I guess I don't understand why you think they were both misdirection whacks. The only thing we know is that one Mafia is dead. Jimmy and Carini's whacks could have just referred to NBF and Farris with Rummy as the third. Or any number of scenarios. Since we don't know for sure who the Mafia are, I'm not getting how you're ruling the whacks as misdirections if Potent and Tainted were both town.
Neither Jimmy or Carini mentioned Rummy once. Carini did have a few votes on NBF at points but ultimately dropped her from the runoff in favor of you on D2.
Not saying it clears either one of them, far from it. In fact both of them are high on my list for a possible 3rd. I just don't think that both Rummy and NBF are Mafia.
Gotta go, and probably won't be able to really check the game til tomorrow.
I guess I don't understand why you think they were both misdirection whacks. The only thing we know is that one Mafia is dead. Jimmy and Carini's whacks could have just referred to NBF and Farris with Rummy as the third. Or any number of scenarios. Since we don't know for sure who the Mafia are, I'm not getting how you're ruling the whacks as misdirections if Potent and Tainted were both town.
Neither Jimmy or Carini mentioned Rummy once. Carini did have a few votes on NBF at points but ultimately dropped her from the runoff in favor of you on D2.
Not saying it clears either one of them, far from it. In fact both of them are high on my list for a possible 3rd. I just don't think that both Rummy and NBF are Mafia.
Gotta go, and probably won't be able to really check the game til tomorrow.
They might not have mentioned Rummy, but the Inspector is only given one name. They could have easily whacked either Jimmy or Carini because of things they said/did in regards to either of the other two Mafia.
There are so many combinations that could involve Rummy being Mafia and Potent and Tainted being town. The Jimmy whack makes sense if Farris is Mafia, and the Carini whack makes sense if NBF is Mafia (he didn't drop her from the runoff, btw - he only moved his vote to me after she was eliminated from the runoff). You can even throw me in the mix as a potential Mafia with Rummy because of Carini's votes on me in two different rounds. And that's only assuming both whacks were to try to get the inspector. If you believe one whack was for the inspector (I think probably Carini, which would implicate NBF and myself), than you can also throw SFA into the mix. So this would give us a number of combinations:
If both whacks were for inspector: Rummy/Farris/NBF Rummy/Farris/Me Rummy/NBF/Me
If one whack was for misdirection and one whack was for inspector: Rummy/Farris/SFA Rummy/NBF/SFA Rummy/SFA/Me
And that's only speaking from your perspective. I know I'm town so for me you're in the mix as well, especially if one of the whacks was for misdirection.
I'm not ruling out Potent as potentially being Mafia, I'm just saying that from where we are in the game, I think it makes no sense for you rule out that he and Tainted could have both been townies. The whacks don't support that view.
Not saying it clears either one of them, far from it. In fact both of them are high on my list for a possible 3rd. I just don't think that both Rummy and NBF are Mafia.
Also, assuming that the "they" here are Rummy and NBF and you consider either them as possibly being Mafia along with Potent, who is the other Mafia that makes them a "possible third"? You're thinking Potent + Rummy or NBF + ?
This stuck out to me as well. My main holdout is that the mafia would have to know the tallys would be brought back up and she'd stick out for these very reasons. So considering Dragon's playing style this game, I just don't think whacking him would be worth the risk. He would seem to be a better bet to vote along with as well.
It still certainly plausible. Just playing devil advocate.
In your history of playing Mafia, have you ever seen three Mafia vote for the same person when there was no Mafia involved in a runoff? The whole point of Mafia is to track voting patterns, so the Mafia want to break that up. Not all vote for the same person for no reason at all - that's like painting a target on your back.
I think it's more likely that they whacked Dragon either to frame me because he was gunning for me, or because Rummy was Mafia and he ended up voting for her. I'm leaning towards the latter.
Yes, it's possible that the Mafia may have known bringing the tallies back up would point to her, but when I've been Mafia before, deciding on the whack has been focused on getting the Inspector, not looking at past tallies to try and make sure the whack won't lead back to us. It makes more sense to me to go for the Inspector and deal with the heat that will be drawn than to go for a frame and risk an Inspector reveal - especially when you're already one Mafia down.
I wasn't thinking about it as if the mafia was considering the inspector with that whack. I didn't really get the sense that anyone was. That obviously changes my understanding of your vote.
As to the mafia all voting together when none were in the runoff... No, I don't recall that but two have, depending on the situation.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Dec 12, 2015 18:37:25 GMT -5
To clarify, I was just looking at Dragon's whack as either framing or whacking someone the mafia knew would vote against their interest/vote for them. That's why I said it looked like a dangerous move from NBF's pov. As he seemed like someone she could align with. But what you are saying changes things, at as far as why you are voting. So it makes sense even if I'm not so sure that's what happened.
Catching up with everyone's posts from today. Will have more to add shortly.
To clarify, I was just looking at Dragon's whack as either framing or whacking someone the mafia knew would vote against their interest/vote for them. That's why I said it looked like a dangerous move from NBF's pov. As he seemed like someone she could align with. But what you are saying changes things, at as far as why you are voting. So it makes sense even if I'm not so sure that's what happened.
Catching up with everyone's posts from today. Will have more to add shortly.
Gotcha. Your earlier statements make more sense to me now. Though I should clarify that my main reason for voting for NBF is because of the combination of votes against me at the end of Day 2 knowing that I'm town, not because of the whacks. As I said before: if Potent was Mafia, another Mafia would have voted for me in that round. That's NBF, since Dragon and Carini were town. If he wasn't, I don't believe the Mafia would place all of their votes on Potent, especially if Tainted was town as well. Again, that leaves NBF. This makes my vote for a no-brainer for me. Obviously since you guys don't know my status you can't look at my perspective with the same degree of conviction, but that's where I stand.
Everything else I've said today (and I've been home alone with nothing to do and lots of coffee, so I've said a lot) is working backwards from there. The Carini whack fits though with NBF, considering that in two straight days he had his vote on her until she was eliminated from the runoff.
I just felt the need to summarize. I know I can get wordy.
Trying to say that out of the group of lynched players (Tainted, Potent, Rummy), we know at least 1 was Mafia, possibly 2.
I think that if only 1 was Mafia, it's most likely to be Potent. I don't think it likely that both Tainted and Potent were town, and Rummy was Mafia. If both Tainted and Potent were town, I don't really see how the whacks the first two nights (Jimmy and Carini) would be tied to actual Mafioso. I can see the Mafia doing one misdirection whack, but not two back to back like that.
I do think it's possible that both Rummy might have been Mafia along with another, but not sure how likely that is.
I don't think Rummy could have been mafia with either of them. She helped push both of them towards their runoffs. If you look at the timing I don't think it could be distancing votes. She stacked a third vote on Tainted. Then made the second vote putting Potent in the second round runoff.
If you look at page 4 the timing looks iffy for Potent and Tainted to be connected as well. He pretty much put the nail in the coffin by voting before Farris there.
Put that with what little we've gleaned from the whacks, it appears two mafia are alive. Unless I'm missing something obvious? I'm assuming the mafia pulled some big distancing moves at some point but I'm not sure it's one of the above
I do agree that the most likely mafia is Potent. He has the most connection to the whacks in my eyes. Carini even brought him up in the first post of the game..
I do agree that the most likely mafia is Potent. He has the most connection to the whacks in my eyes. Carini even brought him up in the first post of the game..
Could you please explain the connections you see? Neither Jimmy nor Carini voted for Potent at any point, and at the end of Day two Carini voted for me instead of Potent. I still haven't ruled out the possibility of Potent being Mafia, but you must be seeing something that I don't.
I do agree that the most likely mafia is Potent. He has the most connection to the whacks in my eyes. Carini even brought him up in the first post of the game..
Could you please explain the connections you see? Neither Jimmy nor Carini voted for Potent at any point, and at the end of Day two Carini voted for me instead of Potent. I still haven't ruled out the possibility of Potent being Mafia, but you must be seeing something that I don't.
Well, there's admittedly isn't much to go off of. At least for a connection between the lynched players and the whacks. And the whacks could have more to do with the people still alive, NBF would be one when considering Carini. Rothric and I too, if you go by his analysis last round.
For the lynched players: The mafia just doesn't look at votes. Just like the Inspector doesn't always come out and vote for who they have. Carini rode Potent pretty hard in days one and two. Or at least kept his name in the conversation. As I said last round, I'm not so sure Carini was inspector. He seemed to play the same. vote switches and changing his mind, etc. I just noticed while reading through that carini did bring him up a lot. Maybe the mafia noticed it too?
But I'm glad you brought this up because I was overlooked that he was the other vote(along with Rummy) that got Tainted pushed further the Round 1 runoff. Hmmm.
I need to take a closer look to see how I feel about Potent's move first
These are the posts I'm talking about. It just seemed he really had it out for Potent sticking to his first round voting pattern... or not sticking to it.
Trying to say that out of the group of lynched players (Tainted, Potent, Rummy), we know at least 1 was Mafia, possibly 2.
I think that if only 1 was Mafia, it's most likely to be Potent. I don't think it likely that both Tainted and Potent were town, and Rummy was Mafia. If both Tainted and Potent were town, I don't really see how the whacks the first two nights (Jimmy and Carini) would be tied to actual Mafioso. I can see the Mafia doing one misdirection whack, but not two back to back like that.
I do think it's possible that both Rummy might have been Mafia along with another, but not sure how likely that is.
I don't think Rummy could have been mafia with either of them. She helped push both of them towards their runoffs. If you look at the timing I don't think it could be distancing votes. She stacked a third vote on Tainted. Then made the second vote putting Potent in the second round runoff.
That should be "a second vote on tainted in the third runoff." My bad.
Ah, good points. I just looked through Round one again. Before the final runoff, who stacked up on NBF to make her go forward? Carini. And then who switched his vote off of her to save her? Potent.
Ah, good points. I just looked through Round one again. Before the final runoff, who stacked up on NBF to make her go forward? Carini. And then who switched his vote off of her to save her? Potent.
That's certainly interesting. I'm still not getting the Dragon whack but I guess that's partly the mafia's plan? I'm also not clear on who a third would be here?
I keep getting distracted by the stupid headliner thread but I've been reading over this off and on. I've been going back and forth between Rothric and Farris. Rothric because he's flew so under the radar and Farris because he's slip by for so long while having the closest link to the first whack.
I'll have my vote in very soon. Just wanted to post and comment myself to the task, so I don't continue to get distracted.
Ah, good points. I just looked through Round one again. Before the final runoff, who stacked up on NBF to make her go forward? Carini. And then who switched his vote off of her to save her? Potent.
That's certainly interesting. I'm still not getting the Dragon whack but I guess that's partly the mafia's plan? I'm also not clear on who a third would be here?
I keep getting distracted by the stupid headliner thread but I've been reading over this off and on. I've been going back and forth between Rothric and Farris. Rothric because he's flew so under the radar and Farris because he's slip by for so long while having the closest link to the first whack.
I'll have my vote in very soon. Just wanted to post and comment myself to the task, so I don't continue to get distracted.
Given that you seem to think it's most likely that Potent was Mafia (which is certainly what I'm gleaning from your previous posts), why are you considering voting for the people who helped vote him out (Farris and Rothric) instead of the people who could have been trying to save him (NBF and myself)? The third could still be Farris or Rothric (if you're town), but I feel like there's less evidence tying them to the Carini whack, and the Jimmy whack could easily have been for misdirection or someone to look more closely at if we make it to the next round. Frankly both NBF and myself are implicated in both rounds by the Carini whack.
That's certainly interesting. I'm still not getting the Dragon whack but I guess that's partly the mafia's plan? I'm also not clear on who a third would be here?
I keep getting distracted by the stupid headliner thread but I've been reading over this off and on. I've been going back and forth between Rothric and Farris. Rothric because he's flew so under the radar and Farris because he's slip by for so long while having the closest link to the first whack.
I'll have my vote in very soon. Just wanted to post and comment myself to the task, so I don't continue to get distracted.
Given that you seem to think it's most likely that Potent was Mafia (which is certainly what I'm gleaning from your previous posts), why are you considering voting for the people who helped vote him out (Farris and Rothric) instead of the people who could have been trying to save him (NBF and myself)? The third could still be Farris or Rothric (if you're town), but I feel like there's less evidence tying them to the Carini whack, and the Jimmy whack could easily have been for misdirection or someone to look more closely at if we make it to the next round. Frankly both NBF and myself are implicated in both rounds by the Carini whack.
Well, I was assuming we'd want a runoff. It seemed like NBF was heading that direction, so my thoughts were more towards who should go in with her. While I think you've made a good case, I'd like to have all bases covered. But I absolutely agree with you that their is sufficient evidence for her to be back in.
Also, as I said last night, with all this confusion it seems apparent the mafia made a distancing move at some point and got stuck on it.
Carini did bring Farris up a good bit. In one of his last posts, in fact. He's been brought up as suspicious/or voted for by all the whacks.
I'm still thinking there was something to the Dragon whack besides a setup. Because it seems difficult to believe the mafia would make two straightforward setup whacks that didn't have a secondary agenda.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Dec 13, 2015 19:51:29 GMT -5
The "something to the Dragon whack" wasn't meant to imply he could've been inspector. I don't believe that. I was more considering that the mafia figured he'd vote against them and needed him out of the way.
Post by Farrisbueller on Dec 13, 2015 20:11:12 GMT -5
Something doesn't add up about the way SFA is playing. I feel like he would have been more of a help to the town at this point, at least from a logic standpoint of discussing whacks and going in the opposite direction of their implications. When it gets this late in the game and there are a couple vets at least one of thems got to be mafia. I would be fine with any one of the more veteran guys proceeding and let's face it, there hasn't been enough concrete evidence to eliminate anyone with conviction.
Something doesn't add up about the way SFA is playing. I feel like he would have been more of a help to the town at this point, at least from a logic standpoint of discussing whacks and going in the opposite direction of their implications. When it gets this late in the game and there are a couple vets at least one of thems got to be mafia. I would be fine with any one of the more veteran guys proceeding and let's face it, there hasn't been enough concrete evidence to eliminate anyone with conviction.
Farris > SFA
What metric are you using to decipher who is and isn't a help to the town? I'm far from the only one to state that there is clearly a missing piece to the puzzle.
How about you tie me to the whacks? Since that's how a good townie helps.
Something doesn't add up about the way SFA is playing. I feel like he would have been more of a help to the town at this point, at least from a logic standpoint of discussing whacks and going in the opposite direction of their implications. When it gets this late in the game and there are a couple vets at least one of thems got to be mafia. I would be fine with any one of the more veteran guys proceeding and let's face it, there hasn't been enough concrete evidence to eliminate anyone with conviction.
Farris > SFA
What metric are you using to decipher who is and isn't a help to the town? I'm far from the only one to state that there is clearly a missing piece to the puzzle.
How about you tie me to the whacks? Since that's how a good townie helps.
I don't see you doing much better than "well Jimmy kept his vote on Farris and then he got wacked" that was Day 1 and Jimmy never moved his vote and specifically said he was unsure between Tainted and I. So both you and Roth are pulling at straws on that one. You also stated that you believed Jimmy to not be inspector so where does his vote have any merit to you. Carini indicating me before he got whacked??? What in the world gave you that impression? If we are to go off of Carini being the inspector, which I think is the likely situation here. Carini vetted NBF, likely Carini guessed him night 1 after Potent moved off NBF on D1. Once D2 came around Carini suddenly had a "gut feeling" on NBF, coincidence I think not. Let's not forget Potent already had enough votes to proceed in the runoff and Carini chose Jaz over NBF and I while saying the Jimmy whack pointed at Jaz more than anyone. (I am on mobile and can't really quote but if you look at page 7 and 8 all of what I am talking about is there). Carini was the most detailed of any one of the whacked town. The first whack is usually a guess/feeler/misdirect but by the time the second whack comes there is enough evidence to make an educated guess. I am telling you this to give you my perspective on the situation since my analyzing isn't up to your standards. Okay so I will say now that I have layed it out like this that Jaz has more flashing lights going off in his direction, often times I like to go with an outlire, someone who slips through undetected and SFA has certainly not had much heat on them (same could be said for Roth, if not moreso). But Jaz really does have the most evidence against him and hes slipped through too many runoffs and he fits the "verteran around this late has a better chance of being mafia" narrative.
I don't see you doing much better than "well Jimmy kept his vote on Farris and then he got wacked" that was Day 1 and Jimmy never moved his vote and specifically said he was unsure between Tainted and I. So both you and Roth are pulling at straws on that one. You also stated that you believed Jimmy to not be inspector so where does his vote have any merit to you.
You make some good points.
Yes, I did say I didn't think Jimmy was inspector. I said similar stuff about not knowing Carini's role. We have more information now and it does appear Carini was most likely our inspector. That doesn't mean no information can be taken from Jimmy's whack. Saying it's pulling at straws to connect you to the first whack is a bit much. The whack does tie to you. I'm well aware that it could be a setup but it's not something any townie should ignore.
Carini indicating me before he got whacked??? What in the world gave you that impression?
Meaning that they've expressed suspicion of both Potent and Farris.
How about those of u who are suspicious of Farris, Potent, and you?
This. He also mentioned considering moving his vote off of NBF and on to you or Potent earlier in the round. But maybe you are closer to the truth below?
If we are to go off of Carini being the inspector, which I think is the likely situation here. Carini vetted NBF, likely Carini guessed him night 1 after Potent moved off NBF on D1. Once D2 came around Carini suddenly had a "gut feeling" on NBF, coincidence I think not. Let's not forget Potent already had enough votes to proceed in the runoff and Carini chose Jaz over NBF and I while saying the Jimmy whack pointed at Jaz more than anyone. (I am on mobile and can't really quote but if you look at page 7 and 8 all of what I am talking about is there). Carini was the most detailed of any one of the whacked town. The first whack is usually a guess/feeler/misdirect but by the time the second whack comes there is enough evidence to make an educated guess.
NBF is a her. Is that who you are saying he guessed? Sorry, could you clarify. I'm reading it as you saying he guessed wrongly on NBF and that's why he switched off of her and on to Jaz? That could make sense too.
I am telling you this to give you my perspective on the situation since my analyzing isn't up to your standards. Okay so I will say now that I have layed it out like this that Jaz has more flashing lights going off in his direction, often times I like to go with an outlire, someone who slips through undetected and SFA has certainly not had much heat on them (same could be said for Roth, if not moreso). But Jaz really does have the most evidence against him and hes slipped through too many runoffs and he fits the "verteran around this late has a better chance of being mafia" narrative.
First, I wasn't saying anything negative about your analyzing. My point was you were criticizing mine without doing any yourself. You'll have to forgive me. After being told I'm being unhelpful by several different people it started to get on my nerves a bit.
After going over the game a little bit, I've looked at the timing of things and I'm a bit more stumped. I was looking at Carini as inspector and possibly having NBF's name, but his votes in round 2 don't support that. As Farris pointed out (though it doesn't help me any), Carini took NBF out of the runoff and put me in it, and then he kept his vote on me. I wouldn't think that would be the case if he had NBF or Potent's name. That doesn't do much to quell my suspicions of NBF, but it does throw a bit of a wrench in my train of thought.
