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After going over the game a little bit, I've looked at the timing of things and I'm a bit more stumped. I was looking at Carini as inspector and possibly having NBF's name, but his votes in round 2 don't support that. As Farris pointed out (though it doesn't help me any), Carini took NBF out of the runoff and put me in it, and then he kept his vote on me. I wouldn't think that would be the case if he had NBF or Potent's name. That doesn't do much to quell my suspicions of NBF, but it does throw a bit of a wrench in my train of thought.
After going over the game a little bit, I've looked at the timing of things and I'm a bit more stumped. I was looking at Carini as inspector and possibly having NBF's name, but his votes in round 2 don't support that. As Farris pointed out (though it doesn't help me any), Carini took NBF out of the runoff and put me in it, and then he kept his vote on me. I wouldn't think that would be the case if he had NBF or Potent's name. That doesn't do much to quell my suspicions of NBF, but it does throw a bit of a wrench in my train of thought.
Looks like he was just assuring Potent moved up in the runoff? If we assume he was inspector with Potent's name.
But then why not switch onto Potent when the runoff began? Even if he was trying not to get whacked, you'd think he'd rather vote off a Mafia than save his skin.
Looks like he was just assuring Potent moved up in the runoff? If we assume he was inspector with Potent's name.
But then why not switch onto Potent when the runoff began? Even if he was trying not to get whacked, you'd think he'd rather vote off a Mafia than save his skin.
Took a gamble? I don't think him banking of Farris voting for Potent would be that far fetched an idea.
Which of course, if this is the right trail, would mean I shouldn't be voting for Farris at the moment.
It's hard to say. Potent made the final vote swap of the two. I've keep my vote with a known mafia when I'm inspector several times. It's a "greater good" type strategy.
But then why not switch onto Potent when the runoff began? Even if he was trying not to get whacked, you'd think he'd rather vote off a Mafia than save his skin.
Took a gamble? I don't think him banking of Farris voting for Potent would be that far fetched an idea.
Which of course, if this is the right trail, would mean I shouldn't be voting for Farris at the moment.
It's hard to say. Potent made the final vote swap of the two. I've keep my vote with a known mafia when I'm inspector several times. It's a "greater good" type strategy.
Responding first to your other post, yes NBF mentioned she was a she earlier this game. In regards to Carini, yes I would assume after the switch by Potent D1 that he would guess one of those two, from the looks of it NBF, even if he didn't have the other as his chosen nameq. But now I am going back to, well the most interesting thing that happened D1 was the spat between SFA and Jazmo, but if he had one of their names already than guessing between NBF and Potent would make sense.
As for Carinis post you quoted, I took that more as pointing the finger at Rummy/ Roth / Jaz / SFA than anything else. Since he replied directly to Jaz and it was talking only of the people implicating Potent Jaz and I, which would have been Roth, Rummy, SFA and Jaz (Jaz not indicating himself but both Potent and I and to some extent SFA)
I do agree with you SFA, the way I talked about Potent, it isn't far fetched for Carini to think I would vote for him. But Carini most likely was making an educated choice Round 2 and just didn't need to put any more pressure on Potent than he already was doing, very well could have made it a garunteed mafia lynch if both Potent and Jaz turned out mafia. That might be the reason why Potent bowed out so easily while stating be wasn't confident in Jaz being mafia.
If Tainted was Mafia, there would be two Mafia left in this scenario. If one of those two was Potent, his other comrade would surely be voting for me. And that would be NBF, since we can assume that Carini and Dragon were town. And if Potent wasn't Mafia, then the two remaining Mafiosi would likely split their votes, again leaving NBF as well as one of Rummy/Rothric/SFA/Farris (since I know I'm town).
If Tainted wasn't Mafia, there would be three Mafia left. The same logic applies here as well. If Potent was Mafia, it would be most likely that NBF was Mafia with him to help avoid getting him voted out (with Dragon and Carini being town). And then again - if Potent wasn't Mafia, the Mafia would be splitting their votes between two Townies, leaving NBF on one side and two Mafia out of Rummy/Rothric/SFA/Farris.
Also note that NBF was who Carini voted for before she was eliminated from the runoff. Carini was then whacked after this Day.
This seems pretty clear to me, since I know I'm town. In order for NBF to NOT be Mafia, you'd have to convince me that either Potent was Mafia and all other Mafia alive at the time voted for him, or that Potent was town and all the Mafia alive voted for him. I don't think either of those scenarios are very likely at all.
Jazmo > NBF
I guess I'm going back to this. I know I'm a townie, and I don't know that you are not mafia. From my perspective, your whole analysis is flawed. I've been trying to decide if you are just a misguided townie or if you are a mafia building a case against someone you know to be innocent. I'm thinking it's the latter at this point.
Something I want the other two townies to consider before this round ends up in a runoff: if there are two Mafia left, winning this round wins them the game. As I've stated before, I'm thoroughly convinced NBF is Mafia, so she's likely working in operation with one of Farris/SFA/Rothric. If Farris is town, stacking up on me does them the favor of knowing that if we go into a runoff with the both of us, they'll have won. On the other hand, if Farris is Mafia with her, stacking up on me doesn't really do them any favors, because I'd obviously be voting for Farris if I were in a runoff with him, so they'd have to count on a vote switch by townie-Rothric or townie-SFA in order to not lose a Mafia. Though admittedly that would be their best chance for survival if that were the case.
I don't know what I expect people to make about this, but it's something I wanted to put out there for the other townies to think about since the game will be over if we go to a runoff with myself and a townie-Farris.
SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal if you are in line with my thinking, than why is your vote still on me? You even questioned that yourself and now you are letting things hang.
SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal if you are in line with my thinking, than why is your vote still on me? You even questioned that yourself and now you are letting things hang.
I wasn't letting things hang as much as waiting until I had time to look things over and properly respond.
Took a gamble? I don't think him banking of Farris voting for Potent would be that far fetched an idea.
Which of course, if this is the right trail, would mean I shouldn't be voting for Farris at the moment.
It's hard to say. Potent made the final vote swap of the two. I've keep my vote with a known mafia when I'm inspector several times. It's a "greater good" type strategy.
Responding first to your other post, yes NBF mentioned she was a she earlier this game. In regards to Carini, yes I would assume after the switch by Potent D1 that he would guess one of those two, from the looks of it NBF, even if he didn't have the other as his chosen nameq. But now I am going back to, well the most interesting thing that happened D1 was the spat between SFA and Jazmo, but if he had one of their names already than guessing between NBF and Potent would make sense.
Why would guessing NBF or Potent make since if he had Jaz or I? Guessing Jaz or I would make absolute sense if he had Tainted or Farris. And guessing NBF or Potent would make since if he had one of the two of them. Not seeing how the two groups connect tho?
As for Carinis post you quoted, I took that more as pointing the finger at Rummy/ Roth / Jaz / SFA than anything else. Since he replied directly to Jaz and it was talking only of the people implicating Potent Jaz and I, which would have been Roth, Rummy, SFA and Jaz (Jaz not indicating himself but both Potent and I and to some extent SFA)
He said in his next post that he was clarifying his position. So he meant Potent/Jaz/Farris. But he also said he was confused, so I'm not trying to say it's the most important post in the game. Still, that's what he said.
I do agree with you SFA, the way I talked about Potent, it isn't far fetched for Carini to think I would vote for him. But Carini most likely was making an educated choice Round 2 and just didn't need to put any more pressure on Potent than he already was doing, very well could have made it a garunteed mafia lynch if both Potent and Jaz turned out mafia. That might be the reason why Potent bowed out so easily while stating be wasn't confident in Jaz being mafia.
I didn't mean that point in an accusatory manner. Just simply stating the obvious. You expressed suspicion of Potent, so it's not surprising you'd choice him in a final runoff. And yeah, Potent had already been called suspicious by a good number of people. I don't think it's a stretch to assume a possible inspector would sit back and let the cards fall were they may.
Something I want the other two townies to consider before this round ends up in a runoff: if there are two Mafia left, winning this round wins them the game. As I've stated before, I'm thoroughly convinced NBF is Mafia, so she's likely working in operation with one of Farris/SFA/Rothric. If Farris is town, stacking up on me does them the favor of knowing that if we go into a runoff with the both of us, they'll have won. On the other hand, if Farris is Mafia with her, stacking up on me doesn't really do them any favors, because I'd obviously be voting for Farris if I were in a runoff with him, so they'd have to count on a vote switch by townie-Rothric or townie-SFA in order to not lose a Mafia. Though admittedly that would be their best chance for survival if that were the case.
I don't know what I expect people to make about this, but it's something I wanted to put out there for the other townies to think about since the game will be over if we go to a runoff with myself and a townie-Farris.
Maybe I missed it but what did you think was the explanation of Carini moving his vote off of NBF in Round 2? We ended the convo discussing Carini moving to insure Potent got into the runoff. Are you just thinking he moved not knowing her name?
After going over the game a little bit, I've looked at the timing of things and I'm a bit more stumped. I was looking at Carini as inspector and possibly having NBF's name, but his votes in round 2 don't support that. As Farris pointed out (though it doesn't help me any), Carini took NBF out of the runoff and put me in it, and then he kept his vote on me. I wouldn't think that would be the case if he had NBF or Potent's name. That doesn't do much to quell my suspicions of NBF, but it does throw a bit of a wrench in my train of thought.
Something I want the other two townies to consider before this round ends up in a runoff: if there are two Mafia left, winning this round wins them the game. As I've stated before, I'm thoroughly convinced NBF is Mafia, so she's likely working in operation with one of Farris/SFA/Rothric. If Farris is town, stacking up on me does them the favor of knowing that if we go into a runoff with the both of us, they'll have won. On the other hand, if Farris is Mafia with her, stacking up on me doesn't really do them any favors, because I'd obviously be voting for Farris if I were in a runoff with him, so they'd have to count on a vote switch by townie-Rothric or townie-SFA in order to not lose a Mafia. Though admittedly that would be their best chance for survival if that were the case.
I don't know what I expect people to make about this, but it's something I wanted to put out there for the other townies to think about since the game will be over if we go to a runoff with myself and a townie-Farris.
Maybe I missed it but what did you think was the explanation of Carini moving his vote off of NBF in Round 2? We ended the convo discussing Carini moving to insure Potent got into the runoff. Are you just thinking he moved not knowing her name?
I don't know what to make of Carini at this point:
After going over the game a little bit, I've looked at the timing of things and I'm a bit more stumped. I was looking at Carini as inspector and possibly having NBF's name, but his votes in round 2 don't support that. As Farris pointed out (though it doesn't help me any), Carini took NBF out of the runoff and put me in it, and then he kept his vote on me. I wouldn't think that would be the case if he had NBF or Potent's name. That doesn't do much to quell my suspicions of NBF, but it does throw a bit of a wrench in my train of thought.
And concerning NBF: if she were a townie, how come no players have come to the fore to get her into a runoff? I've been harping on her all this round with what I would consider to be a somewhat decent amount of evidence, so if I was wrong and she really was a townie, this would be an EASY way for one of the remaining Mafia to seemingly join my way of thinking and throw a vote on her. If I'm wrong about her, I've made it incredibly easy for the Mafia to take advantage of me and use help ensure at least one townie is in the runoff. Yet I'm still the only one with a vote on her.
After going over the game a little bit, I've looked at the timing of things and I'm a bit more stumped. I was looking at Carini as inspector and possibly having NBF's name, but his votes in round 2 don't support that. As Farris pointed out (though it doesn't help me any), Carini took NBF out of the runoff and put me in it, and then he kept his vote on me. I wouldn't think that would be the case if he had NBF or Potent's name. That doesn't do much to quell my suspicions of NBF, but it does throw a bit of a wrench in my train of thought.
Fair enough. That was the discussion I was thinking of. To me, it makes it seem like NBF is less likely so I'm not quite so sure about switching to her and adding her to the runoff. That's what I'm setting her going back and forth over because I do see your point about a possible clinch.
And concerning NBF: if she were a townie, how come no players have come to the fore to get her into a runoff? I've been harping on her all this round with what I would consider to be a somewhat decent amount of evidence, so if I was wrong and she really was a townie, this would be an EASY way for one of the remaining Mafia to seemingly join my way of thinking and throw a vote on her. If I'm wrong about her, I've made it incredibly easy for the Mafia to take advantage of me and use help ensure at least one townie is in the runoff. Yet I'm still the only one with a vote on her.
I've considered switching my vote, but wish there was some way to get both Farris and NBF in the runoff.
If you are sincere in that statement, Rothric, we might have that opportunity.
Jaz > Farris
Farris, if you move to NBF I will move my vote off of you and back onto her, so that the two of you can go forth into a runoff.
If Rothric is telling the truth about wanting a Farris/NBF runoff, he will keep his vote on you. NBF won't switch to herself, so that means you can either vote for NBF, or hope that SFA comes to your rescue now that you're stacked up to three (which would be telling at this point in the game). Or you can allow yourself to be voted out. If you're town, allowing yourself to be voted out would give us the same outcome as you and I going to a runoff, since I am town as well. Since I know that, there is no risk in me putting my vote on you at this point from a numbers standpoint. The outcome would be the same as if I left it on NBF.
Are you willing to vote for her to save yourself? Or will SFA switch off of you? Or will there be some sudden last-minute faux-AHA moment that causes someone to switch their vote to someone else entirely? We will see.
When the game's on the line, I'm not going to bend over and welcome a runoff between a town (myself) and someone who may or may not be town. Especially when I'm convinced that you're Mafia and I'm not the only person who has expressed interest in you being in the runoff as well.
If you are sincere in that statement, Rothric, we might have that opportunity.
Jaz > Farris
Farris, if you move to NBF I will move my vote off of you and back onto her, so that the two of you can go forth into a runoff.
If Rothric is telling the truth about wanting a Farris/NBF runoff, he will keep his vote on you. NBF won't switch to herself, so that means you can either vote for NBF, or hope that SFA comes to your rescue now that you're stacked up to three (which would be telling at this point in the game). Or you can allow yourself to be voted out. If you're town, allowing yourself to be voted out would give us the same outcome as you and I going to a runoff, since I am town as well. Since I know that, there is no risk in me putting my vote on you at this point from a numbers standpoint. The outcome would be the same as if I left it on NBF.
Are you willing to vote for her to save yourself? Or will SFA switch off of you? Or will there be some sudden last-minute faux-AHA moment that causes someone to switch their vote to someone else entirely? We will see.
It sounds like you are rescuing yourself when you are putting pressure on me to go against the logic that I have laid out today. You know, where Carini totally clears NBF on a "gut feeling" and then gets whacked.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Dec 14, 2015 21:40:43 GMT -5
So either I vote the way you want me to or it's a "faux-AHA moment" to vote for someone else?
It seems like if I don't follow the choice you want them I'm automatically doing something wrong. Which isn't logical, unless you are the inspector and know NBF is guilty.
Post by Farrisbueller on Dec 14, 2015 21:42:14 GMT -5
To answer SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal question. I figure since there was 2 groups of interactions (Potent,NBF) and (SFA,Jaz) that if he already had Jaz or SFA and since they were in confrontation with each other, he would pick someone from the other group as to widen the net early.
To answer SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal question. I figure since there was 2 groups of interactions (Potent,NBF) and (SFA,Jaz) that if he already had Jaz or SFA and since they were in confrontation with each other, he would pick someone from the other group as to widen the net early.
So either I vote the way you want me to or it's a "faux-AHA moment" to vote for someone else?
It seems like if I don't follow the choice you want them I'm automatically doing something wrong. Which isn't logical, unless you are the inspector and know NBF is guilty.
Do I KNOW that she's guilty? Not 100%, no. But 95%, and that's close enough for me to warrant the move that I made. If you decide to switch your vote, then by all means, do so. If you're Mafia then I hope we manage to vote a Mafia out this round and that a vote switch by you would help us vote you out in the next round. I'm town, so I know there's no need for me to be in the runoff. You can all see that as suspicious or manipulative or whatever you want, but if there are two Mafia left and I get voted out, the town loses. I know that, and I make my actions based on that.
Based on your vote, you see Farris as being Mafia. So if you're comfortable with me being in a runoff with him, I don't see why you wouldn't be just as comfortable with him being in a runoff with NBF, especially since you also consider her to be high on your list of suspected Mafia.
And concerning NBF: if she were a townie, how come no players have come to the fore to get her into a runoff? I've been harping on her all this round with what I would consider to be a somewhat decent amount of evidence, so if I was wrong and she really was a townie, this would be an EASY way for one of the remaining Mafia to seemingly join my way of thinking and throw a vote on her. If I'm wrong about her, I've made it incredibly easy for the Mafia to take advantage of me and use help ensure at least one townie is in the runoff. Yet I'm still the only one with a vote on her.
SFA and Farris, I would appreciate it if you both responded to this. If she was a townie, the Mafia would want her in the runoff, and have had ample opportunity over the course of this round to make that happen. Instead, moves are being made to keep her out of it.
And concerning NBF: if she were a townie, how come no players have come to the fore to get her into a runoff? I've been harping on her all this round with what I would consider to be a somewhat decent amount of evidence, so if I was wrong and she really was a townie, this would be an EASY way for one of the remaining Mafia to seemingly join my way of thinking and throw a vote on her. If I'm wrong about her, I've made it incredibly easy for the Mafia to take advantage of me and use help ensure at least one townie is in the runoff. Yet I'm still the only one with a vote on her.
There is only 2 possible mafia in this situation so Im not so sure changing their vote to match yours (if you are mafia) would be a good idea, also unless the other mafia were voting for you, they would already be on me and switching their vote would still leave you in the runoff.
And concerning NBF: if she were a townie, how come no players have come to the fore to get her into a runoff? I've been harping on her all this round with what I would consider to be a somewhat decent amount of evidence, so if I was wrong and she really was a townie, this would be an EASY way for one of the remaining Mafia to seemingly join my way of thinking and throw a vote on her. If I'm wrong about her, I've made it incredibly easy for the Mafia to take advantage of me and use help ensure at least one townie is in the runoff. Yet I'm still the only one with a vote on her.
There is only 2 possible mafia in this situation so Im not so sure changing their vote to match yours (if you are mafia) would be a good idea, also unless the other mafia were voting for you, they would already be on me and switching their vote would still leave you in the runoff.
When the game's on the line, I'm not going to bend over and welcome a runoff between a town (myself) and someone who may or may not be town. Especially when I'm convinced that you're Mafia and I'm not the only person who has expressed interest in you being in the runoff as well.
That's the thing. All of your moves here are based on your being 95% sure I'm mafia and asking everyone else to just trust that you are a townie. I'm not good at breaking down numbers and voting, so usually, when I've played in the past as a townsperson, my strategy has just been to look for contradictions in things people say and do (like I did earlier in the game with Dragon and, to some extent, Farris). Right now, you say you are 95% sure I'm mafia (a level of certainty I don't think I've ever reached in a game where I was a townie), but I know for sure that I'm not. I considered for a while the idea that you might have been a misguided townie, but you are pushing so hard and acting so confident that I can't help but think you are just bullshitting. If you are truly a townsperson, I would ask that you take a few minutes to consider whether you might be mistaken because if you are a townsperson, you are trying to lead the other townspeople down the wrong path.
And concerning NBF: if she were a townie, how come no players have come to the fore to get her into a runoff? I've been harping on her all this round with what I would consider to be a somewhat decent amount of evidence, so if I was wrong and she really was a townie, this would be an EASY way for one of the remaining Mafia to seemingly join my way of thinking and throw a vote on her. If I'm wrong about her, I've made it incredibly easy for the Mafia to take advantage of me and use help ensure at least one townie is in the runoff. Yet I'm still the only one with a vote on her.
SFA and Farris, I would appreciate it if you both responded to this. If she was a townie, the Mafia would want her in the runoff, and have had ample opportunity over the course of this round to make that happen. Instead, moves are being made to keep her out of it.
Fine you do bring up a valid point, since I know I'm not mafia and nobody moved onto NBF... Than they must be happy with the runoff as currently constructed. Or they dont have a choice and are backed into a corner as I described. I will consider changing my vote to NBF if someone else joins but this has gotten to be kind of a mess.
