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When the game's on the line, I'm not going to bend over and welcome a runoff between a town (myself) and someone who may or may not be town. Especially when I'm convinced that you're Mafia and I'm not the only person who has expressed interest in you being in the runoff as well.
That's the thing. All of your moves here are based on your being 95% sure I'm mafia and asking everyone else to just trust that you are a townie. I'm not good at breaking down numbers and voting, so usually, when I've played in the past as a townsperson, my strategy has just been to look for contradictions in things people say and do (like I did earlier in the game with Dragon and, to some extent, Farris). Right now, you say you are 95% sure I'm mafia (a level of certainty I don't think I've ever reached in a game where I was a townie), but I know for sure that I'm not. I considered for a while the idea that you might have been a misguided townie, but you are pushing so hard and acting so confident that I can't help but think you are just bullshitting. If you are truly a townsperson, I would ask that you take a few minutes to consider whether you might be mistaken because if you are a townsperson, you are trying to lead the other townspeople down the wrong path.
At this point I don't think it makes a difference, because it looks like we're going to a runoff with myself and Farris anyway. Though in a rare act of humility, I've wondered if I'm wrong, simply because usually whenever I think I'm right in Mafia, I'm very wrong (I think I may have mentioned that earlier in this game? Idk, it may have been the last game). That being said, knowing that I'm town totally implicates you in the Day 2 voting. I just can't see three Mafia voting for the same person in a two-townie runoff. If that is indeed what happened, well then shit...the Mafia deserve this win...and I'd deserve to sit the next game out as a self-imposed punishment for being a shitty townie.
SFA and Farris, I would appreciate it if you both responded to this. If she was a townie, the Mafia would want her in the runoff, and have had ample opportunity over the course of this round to make that happen. Instead, moves are being made to keep her out of it.
Fine you do bring up a valid point, since I know I'm not mafia and nobody moved onto NBF... Than they must be happy with the runoff as currently constructed. Or they dont have a choice and are backed into a corner as I described. I will consider changing my vote to NBF if someone else joins but this has gotten to be kind of a mess.
Don't know if this needs saying, but I'll move there with you, even if that means SFA or Rothric move their vote to me and I end up in the runoff as well.
Though if the two Mafia end up being Rothric and SFA, then fuck this game all to hell.
That's the thing. All of your moves here are based on your being 95% sure I'm mafia and asking everyone else to just trust that you are a townie. I'm not good at breaking down numbers and voting, so usually, when I've played in the past as a townsperson, my strategy has just been to look for contradictions in things people say and do (like I did earlier in the game with Dragon and, to some extent, Farris). Right now, you say you are 95% sure I'm mafia (a level of certainty I don't think I've ever reached in a game where I was a townie), but I know for sure that I'm not. I considered for a while the idea that you might have been a misguided townie, but you are pushing so hard and acting so confident that I can't help but think you are just bullshitting. If you are truly a townsperson, I would ask that you take a few minutes to consider whether you might be mistaken because if you are a townsperson, you are trying to lead the other townspeople down the wrong path.
At this point I don't think it makes a difference, because it looks like we're going to a runoff with myself and Farris anyway. Though in a rare act of humility, I've wondered if I'm wrong, simply because usually whenever I think I'm right in Mafia, I'm very wrong (I think I may have mentioned that earlier in this game? Idk, it may have been the last game). That being said, knowing that I'm town totally implicates you in the Day 2 voting. I just can't see three Mafia voting for the same person in a two-townie runoff. If that is indeed what happened, well then shit...the Mafia deserve this win...and I'd deserve to sit the next game out as a self-imposed punishment for being a shitty townie.
The only way there would have had to be three mafia voting on the same side was if both Tainted and Potent were townies, wasn't it? Why are you assuming that was the case?
So either I vote the way you want me to or it's a "faux-AHA moment" to vote for someone else?
It seems like if I don't follow the choice you want them I'm automatically doing something wrong. Which isn't logical, unless you are the inspector and know NBF is guilty.
Do I KNOW that she's guilty? Not 100%, no. But 95%, and that's close enough for me to warrant the move that I made. If you decide to switch your vote, then by all means, do so. If you're Mafia then I hope we manage to vote a Mafia out this round and that a vote switch by you would help us vote you out in the next round. I'm town, so I know there's no need for me to be in the runoff. You can all see that as suspicious or manipulative or whatever you want, but if there are two Mafia left and I get voted out, the town loses. I know that, and I make my actions based on that.
Based on your vote, you see Farris as being Mafia. So if you're comfortable with me being in a runoff with him, I don't see why you wouldn't be just as comfortable with him being in a runoff with NBF, especially since you also consider her to be high on your list of suspected Mafia.
I've went back and forth on her, as our conversation this round shows. But I think Farris was correct in his assessment of Carini's vote change.
I'd be fine with it but I'm not going to have my hand forced into making it happen. You've played enough mafia to understand that.
And concerning NBF: if she were a townie, how come no players have come to the fore to get her into a runoff? I've been harping on her all this round with what I would consider to be a somewhat decent amount of evidence, so if I was wrong and she really was a townie, this would be an EASY way for one of the remaining Mafia to seemingly join my way of thinking and throw a vote on her. If I'm wrong about her, I've made it incredibly easy for the Mafia to take advantage of me and use help ensure at least one townie is in the runoff. Yet I'm still the only one with a vote on her.
SFA and Farris, I would appreciate it if you both responded to this. If she was a townie, the Mafia would want her in the runoff, and have had ample opportunity over the course of this round to make that happen. Instead, moves are being made to keep her out of it.
That's a good question. I don't rightly know? If it's just one mafia then maybe they saw you pushing to hard and didn't want to side with you?
And i wouldn't say moves are being made to keep her out of it. You forced people into an uncomfortable spot and they resisted.
At this point I don't think it makes a difference, because it looks like we're going to a runoff with myself and Farris anyway. Though in a rare act of humility, I've wondered if I'm wrong, simply because usually whenever I think I'm right in Mafia, I'm very wrong (I think I may have mentioned that earlier in this game? Idk, it may have been the last game). That being said, knowing that I'm town totally implicates you in the Day 2 voting. I just can't see three Mafia voting for the same person in a two-townie runoff. If that is indeed what happened, well then shit...the Mafia deserve this win...and I'd deserve to sit the next game out as a self-imposed punishment for being a shitty townie.
The only way there would have had to be three mafia voting on the same side was if both Tainted and Potent were townies, wasn't it? Why are you assuming that was the case?
If Tainted was a townie*. If Potent was Mafia, that implicates you even more than if he was a townie. And I'm not saying there's no way Tainted was a Mafia, but lynching a Mafia on the first day - while definitely not unheard of, I remember it happening a few days back - is the least likely of possible lynches given how little info the town has and how much sway the Mafia has.
If Tainted was Mafia, there would be two Mafia left in this scenario. If one of those two was Potent, his other comrade would surely be voting for me. And that would be NBF, since we can assume that Carini and Dragon were town. And if Potent wasn't Mafia, then the two remaining Mafiosi would likely split their votes, again leaving NBF as well as one of Rummy/Rothric/SFA/Farris (since I know I'm town).
If Tainted wasn't Mafia, there would be three Mafia left. The same logic applies here as well. If Potent was Mafia, it would be most likely that NBF was Mafia with him to help avoid getting him voted out (with Dragon and Carini being town). And then again - if Potent wasn't Mafia, the Mafia would be splitting their votes between two Townies, leaving NBF on one side and two Mafia out of Rummy/Rothric/SFA/Farris.
Also note that NBF was who Carini voted for before she was eliminated from the runoff. Carini was then whacked after this Day.
This seems pretty clear to me, since I know I'm town. In order for NBF to NOT be Mafia, you'd have to convince me that either Potent was Mafia and all other Mafia alive at the time voted for him, or that Potent was town and all the Mafia alive voted for him. I don't think either of those scenarios are very likely at all.
Jazmo > NBF
If Tainted was mafia and Potent was not, then the other two mafia could easily have both been voting for Potent.
If Tainted was town and Potent was mafia, it's likely that I would also be mafia unless Jaz was mafia with Potent.
If Tainted and Potent were both town, maybe all three mafia wouldn't be voting together, but if Jaz was mafia, they very well might if they thought they could get away with it to keep him around.
If Tainted and Potent were both mafia, the third could be pretty much anybody.
So, twenty minutes before the round closes, this has been turned into a straight vote off of me? Excellent.
Well Rothric has a chance to get what he wanted now.
Or NBF could switch to Roth or I.
Haha. I didn't even think about what Rothric wanted. I just noticed he wasn't signed in and figured I'd go ahead and make a switch before the deadline.
This round will end at 10pm Monday evening, December 10th. CENTRAL TIME
I guess I'll go to Jaz, at least that gives us something besides a self-preservation vote.
SFA>>> Farris >>> Rothric >>> Jaz
Honestly, I was so focused on Jaz, it didn't even occur to me to switch until I saw his post asking if my vote was immobile. I'd have switched it, but I prefer this because, with the way he's accusing me, it seems better for the runoff to be between the two of us.
If Jaz is really a townie, then we are probably screwed either way (unless there is only one mafia member left, in which case there's still a chance in the last day).
So I guess I'm going to try to appeal to Farris here. If you have some reason for believing that I am mafia, please tell me what it is so that I can try to address it. If you are just following what Jaz has said, I've already tried to address the things that he's brought up. I cannot dispute that under some hypotheticals, I could certainly be guilty, but there are several scenarios that he has set out under which I would not necessarily be guilty, but which he is saying show that I am guilty. For Jaz to be so certain of my guilt, based on some hypotheticals and ignoring others, should be a red flag. Obviously, it is more so to me because I know that I'm not guilty. But I would think that to anyone, it should be a red flag for a player to say that he is 95% certain about another player. As a townie, have you ever been 95% certain about another player's guilt?
I guess I'll go to Jaz, at least that gives us something besides a self-preservation vote.
SFA>>> Farris >>> Rothric >>> Jaz
Honestly, I was so focused on Jaz, it didn't even occur to me to switch until I saw his post asking if my vote was immobile. I'd have switched it, but I prefer this because, with the way he's accusing me, it seems better for the runoff to be between the two of us.
I was pretty much just watching the clock. I guess maybe I jumped the gun switching to even things about but I do think You and Jaz makes the most sense given the situation. And I was sorta looking for a way to get Farris out. Because if he's right about Carini post then him and you seem the less likely of the 5 of us.
But in the back of my mind I felt like it was a setup and it was just a matter of time before someone claimed we are working together.
I'm assuming you are busy? You'd find it shady if anyone else made the potential last vote of round 4 with no explanation.
His profile says that he's online, and when I posted two hours ago (about the post from five hours ago), his profile said he'd been on 16 minutes before I posted. Makes me think he's not too worried about whether or not someone thinks his lack of explanation is shady.
I'm assuming you are busy? You'd find it shady if anyone else made the potential last vote of round 4 with no explanation.
His profile says that he's online, and when I posted two hours ago (about the post from five hours ago), his profile said he'd been on 16 minutes before I posted. Makes me think he's not too worried about whether or not someone thinks his lack of explanation is shady.
Yes, I've been checking the thread throughout the day on my phone, just haven't had time to actually sit down and type out anything substantial.
I don't have any new information. I stated I'd like to have you (NBF), and Farris in the runoff. So when the choice is between yourself and Jazmo, shouldn't be too much of a shock. Wasn't trying to lead anyone on with that statement.
I'm not 100% on you my any means, but I'm more suspicious of you than Jazmo at this point.
Yes, there was that post where Carini dropped you (NBF) from the runoff, in favor of Jazmo. I'm not sure whether that was a distancing move from a possible Inspector, Carini not knowing one way or another on you, him clearing you, or maybe it means nothing at all because he wasn't the Inspector.
Something that also stuck out to me was the way this day's runoff shaped up. It was initially looking like it was going to be Jazmo and Farris going into it. It got switched around and ended up being Jazmo and NBF. I think if Mafia were flailing about, worried about the runoff, the person that was in it both for both possibilities is the least likely to be Mafia.
Also, I think I'm marked online more then I really am. I always leave a tab open and logged into Inforoo in my phone. So sometimes it refreshes when I'm just checking something else while on my phone.
His profile says that he's online, and when I posted two hours ago (about the post from five hours ago), his profile said he'd been on 16 minutes before I posted. Makes me think he's not too worried about whether or not someone thinks his lack of explanation is shady.
Yes, I've been checking the thread throughout the day on my phone, just haven't had time to actually sit down and type out anything substantial.
I don't have any new information. I stated I'd like to have you (NBF), and Farris in the runoff. So when the choice is between yourself and Jazmo, shouldn't be too much of a shock. Wasn't trying to lead anyone on with that statement.
I'm not 100% on you my any means, but I'm more suspicious of you than Jazmo at this point.
Yes, there was that post where Carini dropped you (NBF) from the runoff, in favor of Jazmo. I'm not sure whether that was a distancing move from a possible Inspector, Carini not knowing one way or another on you, him clearing you, or maybe it means nothing at all because he wasn't the Inspector.
Something that also stuck out to me was the way this day's runoff shaped up. It was initially looking like it was going to be Jazmo and Farris going into it. It got switched around and ended up being Jazmo and NBF. I think if Mafia were flailing about, worried about the runoff, the person that was in it both for both possibilities is the least likely to be Mafia.
If mafia was flailing and worried about the runoff, why would they put a mafia member into it?
Yes, I've been checking the thread throughout the day on my phone, just haven't had time to actually sit down and type out anything substantial.
I don't have any new information. I stated I'd like to have you (NBF), and Farris in the runoff. So when the choice is between yourself and Jazmo, shouldn't be too much of a shock. Wasn't trying to lead anyone on with that statement.
I'm not 100% on you my any means, but I'm more suspicious of you than Jazmo at this point.
Yes, there was that post where Carini dropped you (NBF) from the runoff, in favor of Jazmo. I'm not sure whether that was a distancing move from a possible Inspector, Carini not knowing one way or another on you, him clearing you, or maybe it means nothing at all because he wasn't the Inspector.
Something that also stuck out to me was the way this day's runoff shaped up. It was initially looking like it was going to be Jazmo and Farris going into it. It got switched around and ended up being Jazmo and NBF. I think if Mafia were flailing about, worried about the runoff, the person that was in it both for both possibilities is the least likely to be Mafia.
If mafia was flailing and worried about the runoff, why would they put a mafia member into it?
Didn't say they definitely did, and they might have had no control over it. If Farris is town, they weren't responsible for putting you in it.
If mafia was flailing and worried about the runoff, why would they put a mafia member into it?
Didn't say they definitely did, and they might have had no control over it. If Farris is town, they weren't responsible for putting you in it.
Well, Jaz had an awful lot to do with me going into the runoff. I know you say you are more suspicious of me than him, but are you saying you are certain that he is not Mafia?
Didn't say they definitely did, and they might have had no control over it. If Farris is town, they weren't responsible for putting you in it.
Well, Jaz had an awful lot to do with me going into the runoff. I know you say you are more suspicious of me than him, but are you saying you are certain that he is not Mafia?
Absolutely not certain that Jazmo is town. I wish I were certain of something right now.
Well, Jaz had an awful lot to do with me going into the runoff. I know you say you are more suspicious of me than him, but are you saying you are certain that he is not Mafia?
Absolutely not certain that Jazmo is town. I wish I were certain of something right now.
So, if you aren't certain about Jaz, why did you say that if Farris is town, the mafia wasn't involved with putting me in the runoff?
