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I'm assuming you are busy? You'd find it shady if anyone else made the potential last vote of round 4 with no explanation.
His profile says that he's online, and when I posted two hours ago (about the post from five hours ago), his profile said he'd been on 16 minutes before I posted. Makes me think he's not too worried about whether or not someone thinks his lack of explanation is shady.
There is certainly a different feeling in the air tonight compared to last. This amount of complacency is concerning. Not sure what it means? Either the maifa don't care either way, or they don't want to shake up what they have.
Something that also stuck out to me was the way this day's runoff shaped up. It was initially looking like it was going to be Jazmo and Farris going into it. It got switched around and ended up being Jazmo and NBF. I think if Mafia were flailing about, worried about the runoff, the person that was in it both for both possibilities is the least likely to be Mafia.
But it would be the same person? If mafia was worried about the runoff and flailed about then that person would be the one who caused the shack up. He almost got out of the runoff all together thanks to vote switches.
The main reason he got put back in, besides his actions, was to give the runoff vote meaning. If I would have placed Farris back in then the only forced runoff vote would have been a self-preservation one.
Not saying he's guilty. I'm just saying the way you are presenting this doesn't work out logically.
Assuming that Billy isn't unnecessarily waiting for the Mafia to officially submit a whack before ending the game, it looks like either I was right about NBF, or two of our previous lynches were Mafia. At this point I'm really not sure of anything - I have reasonable suspicion of all the players left.
At this point the Inspector is dead, so the Mafia are probably looking to either whack the person they think is most dangerous to them, or they are looking to mostly keep alive someone who is on the wrong trail or someone who has drawn a lot of heat. So far this game Farris has gotten quite a bit of suspicion, so if he's not Mafia I could see them wanting to keep him alive. The same is true of me.
If SFA is town, it's hard for me to see too much of a reason to keep him alive. Why would you want the most veteran townie alive in the final round? SFA has stated multiple times that he is confused and/or doesn't really know what's going on, so if that's genuine and he's a townie, that may be a good reason. But if he's Mafia, that would be a solid way to contribute to the discussion without really saying anything that really draws any heat - throw a lot out there, but not draw any hard conclusions from it. There's also the fact that unless two of our first three lynches were Mafia, NBF was Mafia along with either Rummy, Potent, or Tainted - and SFA was the only other vote on me last round. Definitely something to consider.
As for Rothric, I think he's drawn the least heat this game, which in some ways is reason enough to be suspicious. Otherwise, it is hard to get a read on what it might mean regarding whether or not he is whacked or kept alive.
I just wanted to put some thoughts out there in case I'm whacked.
This isn't shady at all. We should have just locked votes last night and got this over with.
What part was shady to you?
Having a runoff were two of the players don't speak the entire time. I think that qualifies. You didn't make much of an effort either. I honestly figured it was over but I guess not.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Dec 16, 2015 22:12:51 GMT -5
SFA >>> Rothic
I'll look over here in a second but that's the only thing that makes sense. I think Farris is cleared after that conversation we had last round and Jaz whack.
Looking forward to getting voted on for "being alive" and "not being clear." Which I'm fucking sick of hearing, and was the reason i was fine getting voted of in Round 3. Go back and look. What kind of mafia would give up and be fine being voted off?
I'll look over here in a second but that's the only thing that makes sense. I think Farris is cleared after that conversation we had last round and Jaz whack.
Looking forward to getting voted on for "being alive" and "not being clear." Which I'm fucking sick of hearing, and was the reason i was fine getting voted of in Round 3. Go back and look. What kind of mafia would give up and be fine being voted off?
My first Day 5, kind of exciting.
Regarding your last point, Jazmo did something very similar last game when he was Mafia. He essentially didn't put up a fight, and it worked out for him. It all depends on the situation and what the Mafia think the remaining town will believe.
I'm not convinced you're Mafia, but you were my gut reaction at the start of today. Add in the fact you're coming after me, and it makes me even more suspicious.
However, I'm by no means convinced of Farris's innocence. I need to put pen to paper, and sit down and look at the game from a few new perspectives.
I plan on sitting down and digging in tomorrow morning, will have my vote before noon.
I'll look over here in a second but that's the only thing that makes sense. I think Farris is cleared after that conversation we had last round and Jaz whack.
Looking forward to getting voted on for "being alive" and "not being clear." Which I'm fucking sick of hearing, and was the reason i was fine getting voted of in Round 3. Go back and look. What kind of mafia would give up and be fine being voted off?
My first Day 5, kind of exciting.
Regarding your last point, Jazmo did something very similar last game when he was Mafia. He essentially didn't put up a fight, and it worked out for him. It all depends on the situation and what the Mafia think the remaining town will believe.
I'm not convinced you're Mafia, but you were my gut reaction at the start of today. Add in the fact you're coming after me, and it makes me even more suspicious.
However, I'm by no means convinced of Farris's innocence. I need to put pen to paper, and sit down and look at the game from a few new perspectives.
I plan on sitting down and digging in tomorrow morning, will have my vote before noon.
I didn't read last game after I got whacked so I can't compare. I was simply stating what happened and that it's not how I'd play if I was mafia. Which goes further when you see that I was active in getting 3 of the 4 lynches voted off. Two directly and one by pushing Tainted into his runoff.
I wouldn't say I'm coming after to you. That's just my gut reaction to the Jazmo whack, as a mafia Farris could have aligned with him. But I said the same about the Dragon whack and it appears I could have been wrong about NBF, which could be the town's undoing. Maybe that's happening again? I'm not sure.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Dec 17, 2015 0:08:56 GMT -5
Besides that, I'm on about the same wavelengh. I wasted to much time on the internet earlier today with the Pearl Jam link. Not in the mood to read over all this but I'll start putting together some working theories to discuss tomorrow.
The rest of this will be from my perspective (meaning I know I'm town, so the X has to be either SFA or Farris).
Based on the assumption that the following people are NOT working together, a few of the possibilities can be eliminated.
NOT Working Together 1. SFA & Rummy (they came out against each other in D3 and never relented, can't see that being a distancing move) 2. Farris & Rummy (same thing, Farris came out starting with a vote on Rummy and never changed) 3. Potent & Rummy (Rummy came out against Potent at the start of D2 and never faltered) 4. Farris & NBF (at the end of D4, Farris ended up on NBF. If they were 2 Mafia together, they could have won the game had Farris switched his vote) 5. SFA & Potent (this is pairing I'm least confident of outright eliminating. SFA did ultimately leave his vote on Potent, but it took til the last round for it to end up there. SFA also did bring some heat Potent's way when he called him out earlier in the game. So yes, I find it extremely unlikely they're working together, and am going to eliminate it at this point)
After eliminating all possibilities that entailed the above combos, we're left with:
1. Tainted/Potent/Farris 2. Tainted/NBF/SFA
I can see both of these combos having some merit.
Discussion around combo #1 (Tainted/Potent/Farris): I feel like this combo makes the most sense when looking at the whacks. Jimmy and Carini were the first two whacks. Jimmy only voted for Farris, and Carini expressed strong suspicion of both Potent and Farris in D2 before he was whacked. Even when you consider the Dragon whack it does make some sense. Dragon was coming hard after both Jazmo and Farris. Whacking Dragon at that point provided two benefits, it stopped one of the people coming after Farris, and set up a nice frame on Jazmo for the next round.
People might mention that Farris voted for Potent on D2, but that only occurred when Farris was forced to move his vote in the last round. Plus, playing with Potent as Mafia previously, I know he has no qualms with leaving a vote on a fellow Mafia member for the good of future distancing. It's entirely possible that Potent realized he was gone this round no matter what, and told Farris to vote for him in the hopes that he could skate by the rest of the game. If that's true, it looks like it almost worked.
Combo #2 (Tainted/NBF/SFA): I just have trouble wrapping my head around the whacks if is indeed the Mafia combo we have in this game. The first Jimmy whack could have simply been misdirection, but I still fail to see why this group of Mafia would whack Carini on D2. If Carini was indeed Inspector (my most likely scenario at this point), he wasn't breathing down the Mafia's neck at all. Carini did vote for Tainted in D1, but they whacked from the pool of players that voted for Farris. Carini did express some suspicion of NBF initially, but ultimately dropped her Jazmo in the D2 runoffs.
Still not 100% ready to place my vote somewhere, but definitely being swayed to voting for Farris at the moment.
Anyone see something glaringly wrong in my analysis? I know of you will be lying, just hoping I can pick out the truth.
And my assessment that there are 2 Mafia from the group of 4 lynched players assumes that the Mafia did not whack one of their own. While technically possible, I just don't see how it fits this situation. Perhaps that's a mistake, but I just don't see it this game.
Anyone see something glaringly wrong in my analysis? I know of you will be lying, just hoping I can pick out the truth.
All seems on the level to me. Looking over things as we speak and was reminded of a couple of these things myself. I'll have a little more to say here in a second but wanted to point something out while it was fresh in my mind.
Discussion around combo #1 (Tainted/Potent/Farris): I feel like this combo makes the most sense when looking at the whacks. Jimmy and Carini were the first two whacks. Jimmy only voted for Farris, and Carini expressed strong suspicion of both Potent and Farris in D2 before he was whacked. Even when you consider the Dragon whack it does make some sense. Dragon was coming hard after both Jazmo and Farris. Whacking Dragon at that point provided two benefits, it stopped one of the people coming after Farris, and set up a nice frame on Jazmo for the next round.
People might mention that Farris voted for Potent on D2, but that only occurred when Farris was forced to move his vote in the last round. Plus, playing with Potent as Mafia previously, I know he has no qualms with leaving a vote on a fellow Mafia member for the good of future distancing. It's entirely possible that Potent realized he was gone this round no matter what, and told Farris to vote for him in the hopes that he could skate by the rest of the game. If that's true, it looks like it almost worked.
I'm not 100% sure on the combo but I understand what you mean about the whacks. I've brought it up a lot but I've also held back at times because it seemed like the Jimmy whack whack was especially a setup for Jaz and/or Farris. Still, it's hard to ignore the pattern the further into the game it gets.
But you were also one of the ones that voted Farris/Jazmo early in the rounds. So that's interesting but I never felt like you were forcing things too much with it. I'll have to look at the specific posts.
Combo #2 (Tainted/NBF/SFA): I just have trouble wrapping my head around the whacks if is indeed the Mafia combo we have in this game. The first Jimmy whack could have simply been misdirection, but I still fail to see why this group of Mafia would whack Carini on D2. If Carini was indeed Inspector (my most likely scenario at this point), he wasn't breathing down the Mafia's neck at all. Carini did vote for Tainted in D1, but they whacked from the pool of players that voted for Farris. Carini did express some suspicion of NBF initially, but ultimately dropped her Jazmo in the D2 runoffs.
I think the Carini whack has to be about Potent. It now appears that his vote move to Jaz was to ensure Potent got placed in the runoff.
I'd also like to mention that he hypothetical of NBF and I being mafia together is highly improbable just on the last round alone. First off, why would we whack a player that would have almost been a guarantee to vote with us and gave us the numbers to win? Second, if we did whack him we didn't utilize any real strategy with it.
I'm not 100% sure on the combo but I understand what you mean about the whacks. I've brought it up a lot but I've also held back at times because it seemed like the Jimmy whack whack was especially a setup for Jaz and/or Farris. Still, it's hard to ignore the pattern the further into the game it gets.
But you were also one of the ones that voted Farris/Jazmo early in the rounds. So that's interesting but I never felt like you were forcing things too much with it. I'll have to look at the specific posts.
Yes, I was definitely voting for/expressing suspicion of both Farris and Jazmo for a good portion of the game. The whacks definitely point towards them, either truthfully or from Mafia manipulation. However, when it came down to it, I didn't vote for Jazmo at the end of D4.
And agreed on the Jimmy whack, I can see it being purely for frame/misdirection, but I wouldn't be shocked if it had a little bit of truth in it.
I think the Carini whack has to be about Potent. It now appears that his vote move to Jaz was to ensure Potent got placed in the runoff.
I agree with that.
I'd also like to mention that he hypothetical of NBF and I being mafia together is highly improbable just on the last round alone. First off, why would we whack a player that would have almost been a guarantee to vote with us and gave us the numbers to win? Second, if we did whack him we didn't utilize any real strategy with it.
Yes, I do think this the less likely scenario. However, if that is the case, then I don't think I'd say there was zero strategy in it.
Jazmo is a much better at Mafia than I am. If the Mafia had to pick between a townie Jazmo or a townie Rothric being alive, I have to imagine 9 times out of 10 they're going to kill Jazmo and leave me alive.
To be honest, I was surprised to see both yourself and Jazmo alive this late into the game. I had to start to think if it's realistic for both a townie Jazmo and SFA to be alive this late into the game.
If you both are town, then your little dust up in D1 could be helpful to Mafia in the right situation. Also, they can prey upon the these very suspicions that I'm discussing now. So long as you both weren't on the right track, I can see how keeping you alive is very helpful in drawing attention your way when needed.
If the Mafia combo does end up being something like Tainted/Potent/Farris, then I can see how keeping both of you alive was helpful. Towards the end, SFA, you were basically saying you thought Farris was town. Jazmo was going for NBF's jugular. Both in the wrong direction if this is the right combo.
I don't know, I could be completely off again and you are in fact Mafia. But after going through everything again, I just don't see that as likely.
I'm not 100% sure on the combo but I understand what you mean about the whacks. I've brought it up a lot but I've also held back at times because it seemed like the Jimmy whack whack was especially a setup for Jaz and/or Farris. Still, it's hard to ignore the pattern the further into the game it gets.
But you were also one of the ones that voted Farris/Jazmo early in the rounds. So that's interesting but I never felt like you were forcing things too much with it. I'll have to look at the specific posts.
Yes, I was definitely voting for/expressing suspicion of both Farris and Jazmo for a good portion of the game. The whacks definitely point towards them, either truthfully or from Mafia manipulation. However, when it came down to it, I didn't vote for Jazmo at the end of D4.
No, you didn't. I was pretty open about not trusting Dragon's talk.
And agreed on the Jimmy whack, I can see it being purely for frame/misdirection, but I wouldn't be shocked if it had a little bit of truth in it.
I always assume the mafia has several goals in mind. Even if it's a pure early misdirection, you'd like their to be some chance they are inspector.
I think the Carini whack has to be about Potent. It now appears that his vote move to Jaz was to ensure Potent got placed in the runoff.
I agree with that.
I'd also like to mention that he hypothetical of NBF and I being mafia together is highly improbable just on the last round alone. First off, why would we whack a player that would have almost been a guarantee to vote with us and gave us the numbers to win? Second, if we did whack him we didn't utilize any real strategy with it.
Yes, I do think this the less likely scenario. However, if that is the case, then I don't think I'd say there was zero strategy in it.[quote
True. I should've worded it different. I meant more apparent strategy like trying to lead the round. In my opinion, Jaz pretty much took the lead with round 4.
Jazmo is a much better at Mafia than I am. If the Mafia had to pick between a townie Jazmo or a townie Rothric being alive, I have to imagine 9 times out of 10 they're going to kill Jazmo and leave me alive.
To be honest, I was surprised to see both yourself and Jazmo alive this late into the game. I had to start to think if it's realistic for both a townie Jazmo and SFA to be alive this late into the game.
If you both are town, then your little dust up in D1 could be helpful to Mafia in the right situation. Also, they can prey upon the these very suspicions that I'm discussing now. So long as you both weren't on the right track, I can see how keeping you alive is very helpful in drawing attention your way when needed.
I think it's all relative. Yes, they want to get players they see as a threat out of the way. But first they have to try and deal with the inspector. Then look at things situationally. Who's on the wrong path? Who can be set up? Etc. I think we had a similar discussion when you were mafia and I was talking about why the "vet" players were still alive.
One thing people haven't really mentioned is the NBF has played longer then any of us. So there were several longtime players at the end. It's not that unheard of. It's just that not many of us actually play as often. haha.
Well, it almost got me voted off. Mostly because I was alive and wasn't "helpful." Which I understand. I'm not always the most clear. I also think I get far to much credit for being "a vet". Where it's mostly a matter of devoting more time to the game then a lot of players do. But yes, Jaz and I switching votes and the argument that caused is a perfect reason to keep us around. Basic divide and conquer. It happens all the time.
If the Mafia combo does end up being something like Tainted/Potent/Farris, then I can see how keeping both of you alive was helpful. Towards the end, SFA, you were basically saying you thought Farris was town. Jazmo was going for NBF's jugular. Both in the wrong direction if this is the right combo.
This actually does make sense. I was getting very suspicious of Jaz because i thought we were having a fairly level headed convo then he got so pushy about getting out of the runoff. Which I understand but in the moment it makes you paranoid. So yeah, I did start to think Farris had to be innocent if he was pushed out like that. Looking back I can see how he could have wormed out of that situation. Which he's kind of done all game.
I don't know, I could be completely off again and you are in fact Mafia. But after going through everything again, I just don't see that as likely.
I'm kind of feeling the same now that I've had a chance to look it over. The person I see you most connected with is Rummy but I don't really see a plausible third. And I think that's partly leftover paranoia because ya'll both voted for me in Round 3. The whacks don't really make much sense with that either.
I'm not 100% sure on the combo but I understand what you mean about the whacks. I've brought it up a lot but I've also held back at times because it seemed like the Jimmy whack whack was especially a setup for Jaz and/or Farris. Still, it's hard to ignore the pattern the further into the game it gets.
But you were also one of the ones that voted Farris/Jazmo early in the rounds. So that's interesting but I never felt like you were forcing things too much with it. I'll have to look at the specific posts.
Yes, I was definitely voting for/expressing suspicion of both Farris and Jazmo for a good portion of the game. The whacks definitely point towards them, either truthfully or from Mafia manipulation. However, when it came down to it, I didn't vote for Jazmo at the end of D4.
And agreed on the Jimmy whack, I can see it being purely for frame/misdirection, but I wouldn't be shocked if it had a little bit of truth in it.
I think the Carini whack has to be about Potent. It now appears that his vote move to Jaz was to ensure Potent got placed in the runoff.
I agree with that.
I'd also like to mention that he hypothetical of NBF and I being mafia together is highly improbable just on the last round alone. First off, why would we whack a player that would have almost been a guarantee to vote with us and gave us the numbers to win? Second, if we did whack him we didn't utilize any real strategy with it.
Yes, I do think this the less likely scenario. However, if that is the case, then I don't think I'd say there was zero strategy in it.
Jazmo is a much better at Mafia than I am. If the Mafia had to pick between a townie Jazmo or a townie Rothric being alive, I have to imagine 9 times out of 10 they're going to kill Jazmo and leave me alive.
To be honest, I was surprised to see both yourself and Jazmo alive this late into the game. I had to start to think if it's realistic for both a townie Jazmo and SFA to be alive this late into the game.
If you both are town, then your little dust up in D1 could be helpful to Mafia in the right situation. Also, they can prey upon the these very suspicions that I'm discussing now. So long as you both weren't on the right track, I can see how keeping you alive is very helpful in drawing attention your way when needed.
If the Mafia combo does end up being something like Tainted/Potent/Farris, then I can see how keeping both of you alive was helpful. Towards the end, SFA, you were basically saying you thought Farris was town. Jazmo was going for NBF's jugular. Both in the wrong direction if this is the right combo.
I don't know, I could be completely off again and you are in fact Mafia. But after going through everything again, I just don't see that as likely.
Rothric >>> Farris
Im at work so I have been keeping up today but not able to reply until the end of the day. I will be able to get into more detail once I get home. I have to ask you Roth, what is tying me to Potent for you? Even SFA agreed that I was coming at potent early and that Carini figured I would vote his way. Is there any more you can link other than "distancing moves"? I know for sure if we vote me off its game over so the fact that SFA switched his vote is very telling to me. I dont want to vote until I look over everything again but I am leaning towards SFA being the last mafia.
Yes, I was definitely voting for/expressing suspicion of both Farris and Jazmo for a good portion of the game. The whacks definitely point towards them, either truthfully or from Mafia manipulation. However, when it came down to it, I didn't vote for Jazmo at the end of D4.
No, you didn't. I was pretty open about not trusting Dragon's talk.
Whoops. I cut off part of my reply while dividing this up. I don't really remember where I was going with this?
I think I was just relating to the whacks and them being a possible setup of Jaz. At the beginning of round 2 I noticed that I made mention of Dragon being too gun-ho about Jaz. Which is one reason I didn't vote for him then. Because it seemed a little to on the nose along with the Jimmy whack.
Im at work so I have been keeping up today but not able to reply until the end of the day. I will be able to get into more detail once I get home. I have to ask you Roth, what is tying me to Potent for you? Even SFA agreed that I was coming at potent early and that Carini figured I would vote his way. Is there any more you can link other than "distancing moves"?
I also agreed with you when you said Carini likely cleared NBF. That didn't stop you from jumping ship and voting her out last round. So if YOU don't even stand by what you say then why should i?
I know for sure if we vote me off its game over so the fact that SFA switched his vote is very telling to me. I dont want to vote until I look over everything again but I am leaning towards SFA being the last mafia.
My initial vote was made in haste. Partially it's because my trust in you started wavering when you despaired after the last runoff began. It's also because I've read the game over and the whacks clearly tie to you. There is no way the mafia just made a bunch of random distancing votes like that. Rothric makes a lot of sense but I'm willing to listen to what you have to say.
Also, I'm going to be our part of the evening so I figured it was fair to go ahead and let you two know my stance at the moment. I might go to Star Wars tonight too but that will be much later.
Im at work so I have been keeping up today but not able to reply until the end of the day. I will be able to get into more detail once I get home. I have to ask you Roth, what is tying me to Potent for you? Even SFA agreed that I was coming at potent early and that Carini figured I would vote his way. Is there any more you can link other than "distancing moves"? I know for sure if we vote me off its game over so the fact that SFA switched his vote is very telling to me. I dont want to vote until I look over everything again but I am leaning towards SFA being the last mafia.
The main thing that links you and Potent together is Carini. He flat out said he was most suspicious of Potent, Jazmo, and yourself. Carini was then whacked that night. I believe Carini was our Inspector.
Yes, you did end up voting for Potent in the end on D2, but only when you had to. While not what people would expect normally, I know Potent would encourage you to vote for him in the hopes that you make it to the end. If I'm right, you nearly succeeded in that.
I'm open to what you have to say. Maybe you can convince me that SFA is indeed Mafia. I just don't see that as the likely case at this point.
Also, SFA, in reference to NBF being a vet. Absolutely, but I think the majority of the players in this game have not played with her previously. So not to discount her credentials, I think most just don't know her/her playstyle. At least that's how I see it from my perspective.
Also, SFA, in reference to NBF being a vet. Absolutely, but I think the majority of the players in this game have not played with her previously. So not to discount her credentials, I think most just don't know her/her playstyle. At least that's how I see it from my perspective.
Right and I wouldn't expect anyone to have that knowledge. That was just a random thought that came to mind when I was thinking about Jaz and I being alive so long.
Post by Farrisbueller on Dec 17, 2015 23:47:42 GMT -5
Okay so I am basically writing this to you Rothric . I know youve had your eye on me for most of this game, which is partially why they left the two of us with SFA (Jaz was also the strongest remaining townfolk to get rid of). To get to the bottom of this game we have got to start out by identifying the inspector and his given name since they always leave scoopz to make sure there is something to trace back to in the event they are whacked before their 15 minutes of fame reveal.
But first let me lay out some fact in front of us and narrow down the possibilities.
Here is the list of whacked townfolk, these are the closest things we have to guaranteed town, also since inspector hasnt come out we can say with certainty that one of these is our beloved inspector.
(Jimmy, Carini, Dragon, Jaz)
I think we can eliminate Jaz from inspector pretty easily, if inspector can get to Day 3 they almost certainly should reveal since they most likely have enough evidence to win the game. Also can eliminate Dragon because of the above reason, and Dragon was on Jazmo hard which ended up being wrong, and made an easy frame job of Jaz when Dragon got whacked, (Take note of who pushed hard for Jaz late in the game *hint its mafia* we will be coming back to this later). I cant be sure of Jimmy but Carini leaves so many hints before he did a 180 at the end of Day 2 to try to make it to the coveted Day 3, that Jimmy is not very likely to be inspector.
(Jimmy, Carini, Dragon, Jaz)
I am also assuming no mafia were whacked because it doesnt make much sense with the way things went down. Here is the lynched townfolk, two in this group are for sure mafia since there can only be one mafia left on the last day.
(Tainted, Potent, Rummy, NBF)
This group is harder to decipher, some small leaps have to be made but only with corroborating evidence. For Tainted, I am the least sure on this one. I am leaving open the possibility of him being mafia because SFA did try to save him from the runoff on Day 1. I also believe Rummy is not likely to have been mafia, although I said she was playing differently she was being genuinely helpful albeit less talkative. I also went through a similar transformation in how I play this game after getting burned by an earlier play style so I can understand her defense. Also when you see the last few posts of her and who was on her when she got lynched it leaves pretty good evidence that mafia wanted her dead.
(Tainted?, Potent,Rummy, NBF?)
So at this point we have our Inspector and we have a pretty good idea of two mafia. Lets get into inspector then we can come back to whose mafia.
So who was Carinis given name? Heres a couple posts of his that make it fairly clear.
Since I agree completely with Jaz with the vote for Potent and I probably would have done the same thing had he not beaten me to it I feel we should also look at the other half of that interaction as she was the one that Potent pulled out of the runoff to put Jimmy in.
That last one was at the beginning of day 2, since his other two posts were from Day 1 and made it fairly clear his position. The fact that he is saying the bolded above shows me Potent was his given name. He chose NBF because he most likely guessed her Night 1 after Potent used a lame ass excuse to remove NBF from the Day 1 runoff, mafia have a bad habbit of voting for themselves afterall, especially early on. It may have been "logical" as Jimmy said but that doesnt make it any less bullshit. (which Carini and I called Potent out on near that time mind you) Heres Potents post:
My original vote would have gone on Jimmy but NBF stacked on him, so I voted for her. Now I can vote for Jimmy, and I will.
SFA also called out Potent a little bit but this post from Rummy explains it better than I could put it, warning its kinda long but worth the read. Its the reason I believe both/at least two of the mafia were trying to vote her out. Yes I voted for Rummy too but I am not afraid to admit my mistake, plus I am town. Rummys point is also what makes me lean towards Potent being tied to SFA. Wish I would have listened to her more at the time but we can make up for it now. <3 Rummybunz
Not sure how wise a late vote switch is but something about all this is nagging me. Enough where I'd rather shake up a rather boring game then come to regret not doing something later. Not that I really think Farris is anymore guilty. It's more a matter of who I'd rather vote along with. Two
For one, Potent's post are really not setting well with me. Especially his given reason for voting for Jimmy in the last runoff. Then the weird back and forth he's had with one or two others.
I also feel voting along with some of the other runoff survivors is a better place to have my vote. As I highly doubt both of them could be mafia, so I can have some peace of mine knowing they have no agenda.
Okay, so you mention here that Potent's posts are "really not setting well" with you. At this point, it is Farris v. Tainted in the run off, so it isn't like you can move your vote onto Potent at this point in the round. However, you clearly state your suspicions of him here.
As for the whack. I don't think Jimmy was inspector.
He seemed pretty neutral when mentioning those in the final runoff, so I don't think he would have been pointing to them. He even mentioned the mafia likely being thrilled with the 4-way runoff. Which doesn't mean a mafia wasn't in there but I think it's safe to assume he didn't have one of the three other names.
Having said that, he did ask Jaz to change his vote to Tainted but I think that was more of a direct question then a hint.
So.... who knows?
This whole post read as fairly confusing/vague to me, ending in the question "so...who knows?" - and I have tended to find SFA's posts as town very helpful and easy to follow in the past. That isn't hard evidence of anything whatsoever, but it is something I noticed.
I usually like to have fresh meat in the second runoff but I can't really disagree with what NBF and Jaz have said. I am a little worried that if we are on the wrong trail having the same folks brought up over and over will muddy the water, so I'd at least like to expand the search.
Just some random thoughts as I was looking this over.
I like to look at names that the whacked player(s) didn't vote along with, but that's even less telling since Jimmy voted for Farris early and left his vote there. Jimmy was also in the runoff so his vote might not be that telling one way or the other.
One other oddity was when Carini and Rummy pushed the third runoff in Tainted's direction. One could argue the mafia might have seen opinions changing on Jimmy and figured Tainted would be easier to get voted off in the last runoff?
I'll go with Rummy for now, but I'm certainly open to what people have to say because I'm not convinced of this myself. Partly just trying to get the ball rolling.
SFA >>> Rummy
Okay so you had these suspicions of Potent by the end of D1. Then as you post to place your vote on D2R1, you don't mention him AT ALL. What changed? You put me into the running instead because you want a new face. That's fine - but it makes me wonder why you've dropped your earlier suspicions of Potent.
I'd like to make the same suggestion as last round and say we put fresh meat in this runoff if we want a chance to win. I'm fine being one. I fount it odd nobody mentioned me much last round.
Then you say this again, that you want fresh meat.... and you vote for me again at the beginning of the day. Like you did in D2. How is that the best application of putting "fresh meat" into the run off?
Knowing I am town, it is suspicious to me that you've now voted for me twice without much reason - and on one of the days (d2), you had actually previously stated reasonable suspicion over someone else, who you chose to not vote for.
In summation: you seem to be playing differently this game. so my vote is on you. I want to see where things go from here.
Now lets get to the "what the hell was Carini talking about at the end of Day 2???" before we go over the vote patterns and wrap this puppy up.
If we go to a 3 way I believe NBF should drop out from this group.I've been going back and forth about this for a while now and I believe there might just be 5 mafia this game. Reasons to vote for or against all of the others are flying through my head
Also we can't go this close to the deadline without a runoff of some kind.
Translation: I don't have a fucking clue as you could have gathered with my terrible question to Potent that he had already completely answered. I'm probably way off and mafia are right in front of me and I keep missing them.
This is the point where I believe he tried to cover his tracks to see if he could squeak by the whack. It failed horribly but hey, he tried and did what he thought was best at the time. If indeed he did guess NBF Night 1 and she was actually cleared (which I dont believe because he started off day 2 voting for NBF and he probably wouldnt put a vote on a known townie after guessing them the night before). Thats where I can go back and see Tainted being a possability as mafia, just less likely for me by a longshot. As you can see Carini started playing dumb acting like he didnt know what was going on, or even how many many mafia there could be. He could be telling the truth but considering how specific his posts were earlier I find that hard to believe, the mafia did as well and decided to whack him promptly.
Meaning that they've expressed suspicion of both Potent and Farris.
How about those of u who are suspicious of Farris, Potent, and you?
This is the most controversial post of his, its also the last bit of info (that only a dyslexic, or mafia could love). To me he tells Jaz, who Carini was in full agreement with at the beginning of Day 2, hey check out the people who are suspicious of Potent, Farris, and Jaz. Which would have been Rummy, Roth, SFA. So no this post doesnt help as much as it confuses, largely because 2/3 of those people are still alive and the word structure didnt make a lick of sense, posing a question like he was talkin to Alex Trabek. Carini has been known to have these moments and I am willing to not pay too much attention to it given his "sudden confusion" and given all the other evidence.
One final thing on Carini, although I think we all agre., IF THERE WAS ANY DOUBT HE WAS INSPECTOR
I'm special, I don't have to vote this round heh heh heh
PHEW this has been a lot. Okay now its time to go over the voting patterns of each day. I want to put as much out there as I can so you can see where I am coming from. I will be crossing out all known town member but leave any question mark people. (yes I am crossing my name cause I know im town, and yes I am crossing out Roth because I believe him to be town. I dont have much evidence to say Roth is not mafia for sure but it generally seemed like Roth was adding to the conversations and supplying information and voting records and generally looking out for the town unlike SFA who has been unhelpful, confused at times and a flip flopper)
I go under the assumption the mafia tend to do a 2 to 1 split while there is still 3 mafia around. Also take note SFA and NBF are voting together on 3 of 4 days. The only day they are not voting together is when Potent was in the runoff and that was when Potent and NBF voted together. As I already showed with my Rummy post, there is no way her and SFA are working together. Really once you look at the progression of votes you just keep seeing NBF and SFA together in unison.
I dont want this to get much longer than it has to go so I will limit the quoting but I do want to get into the scenario SFA and Roth have been talking about in regards to myself. If I did end up being mafia with Tainted and Potent I would literally be THE WORST mafia player in the universe and should sit out an indefinite number of games. I helped vote off both Tainted and Potent, on the first two days of the game. I literally did nothing to save either of them even when there were opportunities to do so, such as switching my vote off Tainted after the initial voting D1 R1 or just not switching onto Potent when it came down to him and Jaz. How that screams mafia teammates is beyond me. That is some next level distancing moves to not even help out either of your teammates at all.
On the flip side you have Potent removing NBF from the D1 runoff and you have SFA removing Tainted from the D1 lynch. Yes I only moved my vote off Jimmy once I had to but it was D1 and there was much more suspicious shit going on which is probably why I got scrutiny like I did. You also have SFA vetting NBF on multiple occasions, from this early post
Nothing really to go on at this point. I kind of feel Jimmy is the least suspicious just by the timing of things. First to be put in the runoff and now the first to be bumped up in it... even if it is early yet.
I don't have anything on the other three. Never played with Ferris. NBF seems normal in that she's willing to make the necessary moves to get things rolling.
I'll go with Tainted because I always have a hard time getting a read on him.
SFA >>> Tainted
All the way down to the end of day 4 when she got lynched.
The way I see things our most likely mafia combo is (Potent, NBF, SFA) with a secondary combination of (Tainted, Potent, SFA)
I will be here for questions, although my brain is kinda fried. In some ways I feel I could do better with this. I got to run to 7-11 for some ice, we are having a work party tomorrow and I gotta put chill some food for it but I will be back within the hour for any questions and to clear up anything that I might have been fuzzy on.
