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I'm saying that if Tainted and/or Krissy are Mafia, they would have reason to want to vote him out because a.) Zig voted for Tainted, and B.) I moved off of Krissyjo, potentially keeping her from a runoff (which could mean Zig would want to vote for me if he was inspector and had Krissyjo's name).
Ref Notes -This round is scheduled to end on Monday, May 9th, at 11 am CDT.
To Bacon's credit, he was the first person to vote for ZIG when the runoff began. He only switched off after LD had stacked ZIG up to 4. I totally understand why Bacon would want to even it out to get another runoff going. Not clearing Bacon. But just sayin, if he was mafia why would he vote first in the runoff and stack ZIG up to 3? Makes no sense with 3 others to chose from.
^^ sorry, above tally is completely wrong. Disregard. This is what happens when you do mafia on your phone. I'll get back to this when I'm procrastinating at work or something.
Right, JR changed his vote from LD to Jaz so we have 4 in the runoff. I'm just saying I don't think we have a good 4 people in the runoff.
Runoff was Zig, potent, Krissy, Jaz.
If there was 1 mafia and 3 townies I don't think ZIG would be saying this.
I think at least 1 mafia is potent, Krissy, or Jaz based on this post.
There's logic here. I am of the "Jaz is probably town" camp. Everyone knows how I feel about Krissy's status. Potent I plan to reread, but I have a busy day. So forgive my quietness.
Still not that much to go on, I've got to go for the quiet one.
Bacon>jaz
Maybe I'm thinking about this too simplistically, but at the beginning of the second runoff, there were three people in the runoff - me, Jaz, ZIG - and two people with open votes - me and Bacon. If Bacon were mafia, it seems to me like voting for me would have been the best move. If he votes for me, I have a 1 in 2 chance of selecting his mafia cohort (or 2 in 2 - I don't know...). If he votes for one of the people that isn't me, he's guaranteeing where my vote goes. This is either a huge mistake on his part (if he's mafia), some next level mafia shit that backfired, or the action of someone who is town and doesn't know the status of any of the three people in the runoff. I'm leaning toward option 3 right now.
Still not that much to go on, I've got to go for the quiet one.
Bacon>jaz
Maybe I'm thinking about this too simplistically, but at the beginning of the second runoff, there were three people in the runoff - me, Jaz, ZIG - and two people with open votes - me and Bacon. If Bacon were mafia, it seems to me like voting for me would have been the best move. If he votes for me, I have a 1 in 2 chance of selecting his mafia cohort (or 2 in 2 - I don't know...). If he votes for one of the people that isn't me, he's guaranteeing where my vote goes. This is either a huge mistake on his part (if he's mafia), some next level mafia shit that backfired, or the action of someone who is town and doesn't know the status of any of the three people in the runoff. I'm leaning toward option 3 right now.
This makes a lot of sense to me as well. I'm generally not a fan of Bacon's continual vote switches to even out the runoffs, as it could potentially allow him to disguise his votes under the guise of a logical strategy (and it does indeed make sense as a strategy from a townie perspective), but what you outlined seems pretty solid. It's possible that he is Mafia and was banking on the opportunity for either him or one of his teammates to move their vote, but then was unable to do so because of Zig's post, but I find that less likely at this point.
Jaz > JR
I want to see at least one of the Bacon/JR/Monky trio go forward into a runoff, and feel slightly safer about Monky than I do JR and Bacon already has a vote.
Jaz, if you agree with me, why aren't you voting for one of Potent or Krissy?
I think Potent is town. Krissy is on my shortlist at this point, but as I had already stated, right now I'm looking at the trio of JR/Monky/Bacon. Agreeing with you doesn't change my original strategy.
Would you agree that there's most likely one Mafia out of JR/Monky/Bacon? Or do you believe that all three Mafia voted within the first eight votes of the game (leaving two Mafia within Jaz/Krissy/Potent/Carini/Tainted, after excluding yourself, Zig, and LD)? I'm basing this off Zig Final Four post, which I think we can assume at this point was used to throw off the town.
Would you agree that there's most likely one Mafia out of JR/Monky/Bacon? Or do you believe that all three Mafia voted within the first eight votes of the game (leaving two Mafia within Jaz/Krissy/Potent/Carini/Tainted, after excluding yourself, Zig, and LD)? I'm basing this off Zig Final Four post, which I think we can assume at this point was used to throw off the town.
I'm leaning towards Bacon as a town tbh.
I think our 2 mafia are hiding among you, potent, JR, and Monky.
Ill admit that some credence needs to be given to the fact LD was whacked and previously voted for bacon. But it seems to me that his whack was more focused on his laser sharp focus on ZIG throughout R1.
I'm going on the assumption LD was whacked due to his posts on Zig. Potent has shown many times his willingness to vote out his fellow mafia members for distance and his calling out Zig's fuck up could have been a brilliant move as he realized that Zig was done for at that point.
Jaz, I just don't like that you were voting for Potent immediately prior to Zig's error post. Now you're saying he's town.
We also have you at some point insinuating you think ZIG is inspector and that we should all be following his lead.
Then you say you agree with my logic that there is probably one mafia among you Potent, and Krissy ... But you vote for JR?
The only saving grace I see for you is that ZIG had his vote on you immediately prior to his fuck up.
I explained my feelings about Potent:
I feel very safe in regards to Potent right now both because he voted for Zig and because in Zig's post he seemed to be referring to saving only himself, not himself and someone else. I feel like if Potent was Mafia with him he would have said something about moving votes onto me. And also because Potent was the one to bring up Zig's flub.
Zig's error post is the biggest thing that's happened in this game, so naturally that's going to change my views around a lot of things and a lot of people. To me, it exonerates Potent. I'm not going to hold onto my completely-in-the-dark first-round ideas when there's quite convincing evidence that I was wrong.
Obviously I was completely wrong about Zig, but can you deny that what he was saying regarding Mafia tending to vote late was wrong? It made sense and seemed helpful, and a lot of other players agreed with me (though in retrospect it might be a good idea to take a closer look at those players who helped push that narrative, even though personally that does me no favors since I agreed with it as well). At this point, there's nothing I can do about being wrong previously - something that's obviously bound to happen since I'm completely in the dark.
I said your logic made sense. I understood your reasoning. Since I'm town and I've stated that Potent is too, does that mean that I should have just voted for Krissy and locked it in right then and there? No. Me being able to see your reasoning does not bind me to voting a certain way. Zig's logic made sense to me too, and I've already been fooled once. I don't want to let myself be swayed too much by other players (such as yourself), so I decided to stick with the group that I was already planning on voting for - JR/Monky/Bacon.
So let me tell you something Krissy. Here's what we're gonna do here. All the fine townies out there are gonna help me, ok?
We're gonna make Inforoo great again. We are. We're absolutely going to make Inforoo great again. Now follow my lead. The major problem we are facing right now is, we got these Mafia that come across the border and into our great forum. And you know, they're killers and criminals and no good punks. We know they're going to kill innocent townies asap, and together we're going to stop them. We need to take these sons of bitches out before they hurt us. And we're going to do whatever it takes to keep the town safe.
Now, Zig here is talking some shit about me saying that I'm really Mafia because I voted last. Sounds like Mafia talk to me. He must be jealous of my greatness. He must be scared of the fact that I can track down these Mafia. I'm not going to play by the rules, I'm not going to censor myself - I get the job done. It's people like Zig that have made Inforoo not so great lately.
The mafia could be thinking LD had Zig's name and that's why they killed him off. The only thing that makes me hesitate is that's a pretty obvious connection. But with one man down on the first day, would they consider trying to mislead the town more important than getting the inspector out? My brain keeps going back and forth on that. The only other person LD voted for was in the very beginning - JR. An inspector putting their first vote on their given name probably isn't too common, but it's not out of the question.
I was actually going to try to stay away from any more accusations towards JR right now, simply because of the back and forth he and I had at the end of the last round. However, the more I go back, the more interested in him I become.
For starters, even though Zig was mafia, his Final 4 post still makes some sense to me. Those final four were JR, Bacon, Monky, and LD. Obviously LD isn't mafia, so that leaves JR, Bacon, and Monky.
I see inconsistencies in JR's posts. First, JR makes a post stating his suspicions about Zig:
I'm curious about this also. He actually posted some decent food for thought. Why do you think we should kill him off so quickly?
I actually agree with LD. Zig's below post is odd. How can we think we have the right or wrong people on page 2? My random pick was also only page 2. I was only trying to make it as obvious as possible that my vote was random for the sake of the runoff. One of the reasons I got lynched last game was that voted with a suspected mafia on day 1.
I would prefer a runoff of 4. It gives us the most opportunity to see more voting patterns. Personally, I'm not a huge fan of the people we have. Myself (ZiG) and Potent always seem to make the Day 1 runoff for no particular reason. KrissyJo seems to have made it because this is her first game in a while. Jaz was picked at random? Seems like we are trying to shoot fish in a barrel.
IMO, LD has the most suspicious activity so far. He was a late voter (last actually) and with that last vote, he basically throws it away instead of choosing 1 of the 4 people with 1 vote to push up into the runoff.
Then JR posts that Zig is probably town because he didn't stack on JR.
Here are the 2 notes I made over my reread just now.
1. ZIG implied that he didn't want to stack on me. If he was mafia, why not stack on me? ZIG is probably town.
2. Based on the new "at least 1 of 4 late voters is mafia" theory, Bacon and LD are probably not both mafia because Bacon voted on Zig then LD stacked it...
No smoking guns, but it's what I'm working on.
The thing is... I can't figure out what JR is referring to. I've been going through Zig's posts before JR made the above post, and I don't see where Zig implied that he didn't want to stack on JR. If I missed it, someone please quote it for me.
So JR goes from "Zig might be suspicious" to "Zig is probably town" with no backup.
Then Zig makes his OOPS post and JR starts the "Krissy Jo is mafia with Zig" stuff:
Would the other townies assume that this means that none of the mafia are voting for ZIG right now?
Actually, I have a theory on this. Zig may not have known he was in the wrong place at all when he posted, he may have slipped up and forgot where he was, because he was responding directly to his mafia cohort, Krissy, thinking he was in their PM.
I have no strong feelings towards anyone at the moment so my vote is staying where it is unless I need to move it to make another runoff happen. More votes = more info.
The one thing I don't like is that if I make the next runoff, all 3 of us will have to vote the same way to have a chance to save me...
I imagine the next post in their actual PM was Krissy: "NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
Krissy appears to be laying out her "I'll stay on Zig for now, but make it obvious that I don't feel strongly about it so I can switch to someone else in the next round of the runoff" plan.
To which Zig replies that this is a risky plan.
So, Zig and Krissy are mafia, and the 3rd mafia is someone probably NOT voting for ZIG. Here's to hoping the inspector got that name...
I thought it was bad phrasing, but I didn't realize it was an accusation on me. I guess when you feel cornered you have to make bold moves.
Does anyone else see the correlation between Zig's slip up and Krissy's post immediately before that? I also think part of the slip up was due to Zig's post being on mobile. It's a lot easier to forget where you are when you're on your phone.
I was hoping for a little pushback or confirmation on my Zig-Krissy connection, other than from Krissy. I have two people suspicious of me now and wouldn't you know, it's the other two that I called out as potential mafia.
I understand the pressure on bacon, but my gut tells me to stay suspicious of Krissy, and possibly Monky.
JR > Zig (locked)
Potent finally responds, says he doesn't see the connection JR is trying to make, so JR lays it out again:
JR I meant to comment on this last night but I fell asleep. This should not be read to say I don't find Krissy suspicious, but I don't buy the connection that you were trying to make between her post and ZIG's post in the thread. If I understand you correctly, you're saying that Krissy made her statement in the thread and ZIG was responding to her statement via PM (he thought). I find that incongruous. If you were arguing that Krissy also made a mistake, that would be more believable for continuity's sake (but still not believable, ultimately, in my opinion). It may turn out that what you saw is indeed a clue, and I do see what you are saying and have weighed the possibility. At this point, I'm leaning against that.
You wanted feedback from someone other than Krissy, so there you go.
I understand the possibility of my theory being wrong, but I think the evidence is far stronger people are crediting.
Zig is on his mobile. He reads mafia PMs. He opens the actual thread. He reads the latest post, which happens to be from another mafia, who's talking about what their PMs are about. He responds where he is, in the wrong place. <-- Why/how would he have messed up so bad if he hadn't JUST read Krissy's post?
If the previous post had been by a townie or not in relation to his fear of being lynched, he wouldn't have slipped up like that. It's not a smoking gun, but it's darn near close. And Krissy going from supposedly naive to retaliatory feels like a total personality swap. Like she gave up on her original act the moment I accused her.
I'm no where near certain about Monky, but I figured calling him out might get something out of him.
Like I said before (even though I said it poorly), Zig sealed his fate. The remaining two mafia are now trying to swing the spotlight in another direction as quickly as possible to survive. I happened to be the one to make a post closest to Zig's that JR could make some sort of connection to, so I'm now his scapegoat.
I want to know what, other than the weak connection between my post and Zig's OOPS, makes me JR's strongest suspicion.
Ill admit that some credence needs to be given to the fact LD was whacked and previously voted for bacon. But it seems to me that his whack was more focused on his laser sharp focus on ZIG throughout R1.
When did he vote for bacon? I see him voting for JR and Zig, but that's it...
Ill admit that some credence needs to be given to the fact LD was whacked and previously voted for bacon. But it seems to me that his whack was more focused on his laser sharp focus on ZIG throughout R1.
When did he vote for bacon? I see him voting for JR and Zig, but that's it...
I actually agree with LD. Zig's below post is odd. How can we think we have the right or wrong people on page 2? My random pick was also only page 2. I was only trying to make it as obvious as possible that my vote was random for the sake of the runoff. One of the reasons I got lynched last game was that voted with a suspected mafia on day 1.
Then JR posts that Zig is probably town because he didn't stack on JR.
Here are the 2 notes I made over my reread just now.
1. ZIG implied that he didn't want to stack on me. If he was mafia, why not stack on me? ZIG is probably town.
2. Based on the new "at least 1 of 4 late voters is mafia" theory, Bacon and LD are probably not both mafia because Bacon voted on Zig then LD stacked it...
No smoking guns, but it's what I'm working on.
I agreed early on with LD that Zig was suspicious. But then Zig posted this:
What do you mean by this? There were three single votes - you could have joined me and voted for Jimmy, creating a 5 way. You could have joined LD and made a 5 way voting JR in.
if I were to have stacked to 5, my options were stack with LD onto JR or stack with you onto Thor. Neither seemed like a good option. I was suspicious of LD so I didn't want to push the person he was voting for into the runoff. I didn't want to stack with you because I didn't want to leave LD with the lone swing vote to start D1R2.
To which I thought, "well, if he were mafia, why not put me in the runoff?" So I said he's probably not mafia.
Then he flubbed up, and of course I thought he was mafia, just like everyone else.
Then came my theory, which totally set your sights on me.
If you're mafia, why not keep as much heat on me as possible? If you can discredit me, it take all the heat off of you.
If you're not mafia, you may be trying a little too hard on retaliation and not hard enough on actually finding mafia. Every time you post I'm more convinced that I was right.
Krissy, you're right. I was probably thinking of this post in terms of LD casting suspicion on Bacon, but one or two posts on this topic isn't much.
I suppose LD voting for JR would fit in with my theory that JR may be one of the remaining mafia among my top 4 suspects (potent, Jaz, jr, and Monky)
Jimmy, do you have any reason for finding me suspicious, or is this a grudge held over from last game still? I appreciate and encourage grudges driving D1 voting, but grudges driving D2 voting are ridiculous.
