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I'm going on the assumption LD was whacked due to his posts on Zig. Potent has shown many times his willingness to vote out his fellow mafia members for distance and his calling out Zig's fuck up could have been a brilliant move as he realized that Zig was done for at that point.
While I appreciate the credit, it's probably too much, as I am dead weight according to Jimmy. This is a particularly distressing vote for me Carini, because you were the 6th person to vote in this round and not a single person had stacked their vote yet. This reads to me like either you are trying to get someone to stack on me, you are keeping from stacking on someone else with a vote, or both.
The most aggravating part though is that Carini, to this point, is the only player in the game without a vote on him (there were three without votes on D1 - Bacon, Monky, Carini, and Bacon and Monky are voting for each other now, which carries its own red flag), and for me to place a vote on him at this point is exactly what I'm irritated that he did with his vote this round.
Town, we need to wake up. 3 out of the 7 votes cast so far this round want a replay of the D1 runoff. Do we really think that we had 2 mafia (or more!) out of the 4 in there? It's certainly possible, it's just not probable.
I see inconsistencies in JR's posts. First, JR makes a post stating his suspicions about Zig: Then JR posts that Zig is probably town because he didn't stack on JR.
I agreed early on with LD that Zig was suspicious. But then Zig posted this:
if I were to have stacked to 5, my options were stack with LD onto JR or stack with you onto Thor. Neither seemed like a good option. I was suspicious of LD so I didn't want to push the person he was voting for into the runoff. I didn't want to stack with you because I didn't want to leave LD with the lone swing vote to start D1R2.
To which I thought, "well, if he were mafia, why not put me in the runoff?" So I said he's probably not mafia.
Then he flubbed up, and of course I thought he was mafia, just like everyone else.
Then came my theory, which totally set your sights on me.
If you're mafia, why not keep as much heat on me as possible? If you can discredit me, it take all the heat off of you.
If you're not mafia, you may be trying a little too hard on retaliation and not hard enough on actually finding mafia. Every time you post I'm more convinced that I was right.
I said this in my earlier post, but I'll make it more direct - what makes me your top suspect? You've clearly laid out the Zig OOPS post theory, however, I'd like to see what else you find suspicious about me.
I am more than happy to respond to any and all accusations. I have nothing to hide.
Ill admit that some credence needs to be given to the fact LD was whacked and previously voted for bacon. But it seems to me that his whack was more focused on his laser sharp focus on ZIG throughout R1.
I've spelled out my suspicion of bacon. I'm leaning more towards LD getting whacked as retaliation for his focus on Zig and that whacking him doesn't give us much to work with as far as ferreting out the other 2 mafia based on day 1 voting. Krissy has laid out some pretty decent ideas about JR and JR has done the same about Krissy. I'm suspicious of both of them but I don't think they can both be mafia, it's one or the other or neither (though at this time I'm definitely leaning towards one or the other). I understand why people are suspicious of me I was 2nd to last vote and until today I haven't had much to say, I expected that and I'm cool w/ going into the runoff.
Right, JR changed his vote from LD to Jaz so we have 4 in the runoff. I'm just saying I don't think we have a good 4 people in the runoff.
Runoff was Zig, potent, Krissy, Jaz.
If there was 1 mafia and 3 townies I don't think ZIG would be saying this.
I think at least 1 mafia is potent, Krissy, or Jaz based on this post.
You do bring up a pretty good point I'm probably jumping the gun to say Jaz is most likely town but with that final run-off shaping up to Jaz vs Zig, it just seems improbable that they were BOTH mafia. And Zig's OOOPS post very much suggests IMO that he was the only mafia in that final run-off.
Post by monkybunney on May 11, 2016 14:28:55 GMT -5
Let me clarify - it just seems improbable that they were BOTH mafia. And Zig's OOOPS post very much suggests IMO that he was the only mafia in what was most likely going to be the final run-off.
The one thing I don't like is that if I make the next runoff, all 3 of us will have to vote the same way to have a chance to save me...
To me, this is the key to finding another mafia or two. The most immediate vote prior to ZIG's post was Potent stacking ZIG. This reads like it could be ZIG questioning Potent in what he thought was mafia PM.
Something along the lines of "I understand your distancing tactic, Potent, but that means all three of us may need to vote against someone to save me in a final runoff." If this is what happened, then of course that other person who would have 3 mafia votes would be Jaz, not Potent. That would make Jaz town.
Actually, that kinda makes sense to me, especially since people have noted Potent's tendency to vote for his mafia-mates for distancing purposes.
Let me clarify - it just seems improbable that they were BOTH mafia. And Zig's OOOPS post very much suggests IMO that he was the only mafia in what was most likely going to be the final run-off.
I'm seeing my name come up as suspicious quite a bit. 2 pieces of evidence I see against me:
First, I was one of the last four voters. This is my 5th mafia game. Other than apparently being pumped to start my second game, I'm always late. Probably because I'm usually on after work, not whether I'm mafia or town. Mafia 81: 9th (mafia) Mafia 82: 1st (town) Mafia 83: 8th (town) Mafia 90: 10th (town) Mafia 91: 8th I think if you know the people your playing with, the last 4 voters thing might work okay, but the more I think about it, the less I think it's worth going on. And if anything, maybe Zig used it to bait us.
Second, Krissy questioned my flip flop on Zig. I think I explained myself pretty well.
The one thing I don't like is that if I make the next runoff, all 3 of us will have to vote the same way to have a chance to save me...
There is a huge clue in this besides the obvious. I think all the mafia at this point are splitting votes between Zig and Jaz. After re-reading I think 1 mafia has a vote on Zig & what Zig's saying is "I don't like this runoff because you're going to have to move your vote off of me and onto Jaz then explain yourself" I think 1 of the people Voting for Zig is mafia & I've already said who I suspect as mafia voting for Jaz. Maybe I'm wrong and I'm seeing patterns that appear to be there but really aren't, but I don't think so. Does anyone see a flaw in this line of logic or a different perspective to explain what he could have meant?
I can't ignore the fact that I'm alone in the Krissy-done-it boat. So, my unbiased re-read on Krissy honestly took me from 90% confidence to 50% at best. The most telling evidence against my theory is that on page 5 Krissy put Zig into the runoff when the wise mafia move would have been to stay quiet.
I didn't see where we discussed the whackage of LD. He may have been whacked for the pure fact that his relationship with ZIG pretty much solidified his position as town and they didn't have a good feel on inspector. At least hopefully they didn't.
IMO, LD has the most suspicious activity so far. He was a late voter (last actually) and with that last vote, he basically throws it away instead of choosing 1 of the 4 people with 1 vote to push up into the runoff.
I think this discredits the "last 4" theory.
1. ZIG was mafia. 2. ZIG knew who the last four were in this game.
It's always interesting when players in the run-off are the players that were single votes, often a self preservation technique which doesn't say much about suspicions but I'd like to see further scrutiny on Zig and Potent. It's also my opinion in that situation its better to force the situation than let those players set the course.
Bacon>>>Zig
This could just as easily be an early attempt at saving Krissy.
I'd also like to point out that I was willing to move my vote to force a 4 way runoff, and then someone had done it overnight. I thought about creating a 5 way for this exact reason - I thought it might look suspicious for me to have a free vote while being the runoff.
In any event, I'm casting my vote for Krissy to even it back up:
Potent > Krissy
If Bacon is mafia, there was no compelling reason for him to vote ZIG into the next round of the runoff that I can see, other than to create distance for later.
Potent's response says Bacon could be trying to save Krissy. This puts suspicion on both Krissy and Bacon, but steers it away from ZIG.
Potent's post seems suspicious.
Then there's this, ZIG pointing the finger at Bacon for being a bottom 4 voter, if Bacon is mafia, there is trouble in paradise:
red flags all over on this post. Bacon is a bottom 4 voter, then does a vote switch before the any of the empty votes place their vote.
The problem with not playing a lot is even more than normal everything I do is always considered suspicious, even more so than when I was a regular player. My MO is to be a power player, because I know I'm innocent (or know I'm not innocent) and I'd rather be the one influencing the direction the game goes than let someone I don't know control it.
Obviously this doesn't help your suspicions at all because you have no reason to think i'm innocent but you should at least know my thinking.
Normally I'm not one for reciprocating second round votes but i havent had much time to look at everything. In my mind there are a handful of people that could be mafia and a couple that are definitely innocent.
Baconus66>Monkey
Tainted >> bacon
I'd love to hear more about these innocents you speak of, I'm jealous af of shaky knees, and I had to write tainted bacon at least once.
Normally I'm not one for reciprocating second round votes but i havent had much time to look at everything. In my mind there are a handful of people that could be mafia and a couple that are definitely innocent.
Baconus66>Monkey
Tainted >> bacon
I'd love to hear more about these innocents you speak of, I'm jealous af of shaky knees, and I had to write tainted bacon at least once.
I appreciate your trying to get information out of Bacon, but why are you completely ignoring the ZIG post and the LD whack when making your vote? They don't really point at Bacon.
The one thing I don't like is that if I make the next runoff, all 3 of us will have to vote the same way to have a chance to save me...
There is a huge clue in this besides the obvious. I think all the mafia at this point are splitting votes between Zig and Jaz. After re-reading I think 1 mafia has a vote on Zig & what Zig's saying is "I don't like this runoff because you're going to have to move your vote off of me and onto Jaz then explain yourself" I think 1 of the people Voting for Zig is mafia & I've already said who I suspect as mafia voting for Jaz. Maybe I'm wrong and I'm seeing patterns that appear to be there but really aren't, but I don't think so. Does anyone see a flaw in this line of logic or a different perspective to explain what he could have meant?
I think to some degree it's possible they were split among all three. That would leave Carini as an option since I think Jaz is likely town. But besides that, I think I am on the same wavelength as you.
The only problem is, I still view as a suspect as well. I think you, potent, and JR should all be in the runoff.
This could just as easily be an early attempt at saving Krissy.
I'd also like to point out that I was willing to move my vote to force a 4 way runoff, and then someone had done it overnight. I thought about creating a 5 way for this exact reason - I thought it might look suspicious for me to have a free vote while being the runoff.
In any event, I'm casting my vote for Krissy to even it back up:
Potent > Krissy
If Bacon is mafia, there was no compelling reason for him to vote ZIG into the next round of the runoff that I can see, other than to create distance for later.
Potent's response says Bacon could be trying to save Krissy. This puts suspicion on both Krissy and Bacon, but steers it away from ZIG.
Potent's post seems suspicious.
Then there's this, ZIG pointing the finger at Bacon for being a bottom 4 voter, if Bacon is mafia, there is trouble in paradise:
The problem with not playing a lot is even more than normal everything I do is always considered suspicious, even more so than when I was a regular player. My MO is to be a power player, because I know I'm innocent (or know I'm not innocent) and I'd rather be the one influencing the direction the game goes than let someone I don't know control it.
Obviously this doesn't help your suspicions at all because you have no reason to think i'm innocent but you should at least know my thinking.
Yeah, knowing what I know now, I wouldn't have done that. I think ZIG had me fooled for a minute with his last 4 theory (being R1 and all I'll excuse myself for that). I'd like to think though if you read my reaction to ZIG's mistake you'd see it was somebody who was genuinely shocked by the mistake.
For the record, I'll comment on ZIG's theory now. My thought is he probably came in with that theory regardless of his role in this particular game. He did the research and showed what were I believe to be accurate facts from the previous 5 games. I think he got his PM saying he was mafia and thought he'd try to use it to his advantage in that way. I think one person's reaction to ZIG's information sticks out to me, but I want to double check who it is.
The one thing I don't like is that if I make the next runoff, all 3 of us will have to vote the same way to have a chance to save me...
To me, this is the key to finding another mafia or two. The most immediate vote prior to ZIG's post was Potent stacking ZIG. This reads like it could be ZIG questioning Potent in what he thought was mafia PM.
Something along the lines of "I understand your distancing tactic, Potent, but that means all three of us may need to vote against someone to save me in a final runoff." If this is what happened, then of course that other person who would have 3 mafia votes would be Jaz, not Potent. That would make Jaz town.
Actually, that kinda makes sense to me, especially since people have noted Potent's tendency to vote for his mafia-mates for distancing purposes.
Thor >> Potent
First you vote for me because I'm dead weight, now you vote for me because I'm this dastardly evil genius. Make up your mind, man.
There is a huge clue in this besides the obvious. I think all the mafia at this point are splitting votes between Zig and Jaz. After re-reading I think 1 mafia has a vote on Zig & what Zig's saying is "I don't like this runoff because you're going to have to move your vote off of me and onto Jaz then explain yourself" I think 1 of the people Voting for Zig is mafia & I've already said who I suspect as mafia voting for Jaz. Maybe I'm wrong and I'm seeing patterns that appear to be there but really aren't, but I don't think so. Does anyone see a flaw in this line of logic or a different perspective to explain what he could have meant?
I think to some degree it's possible they were split among all three. That would leave Carini as an option since I think Jaz is likely town. But besides that, I think I am on the same wavelength as you.
The only problem is, I still view as a suspect as well. I think you, potent, and JR should all be in the runoff.
I can't disagree that there is a good chance of mafia being in that runoff.
I'd love to hear more about these innocents you speak of, I'm jealous af of shaky knees, and I had to write tainted bacon at least once.
I appreciate your trying to get information out of Bacon, but why are you completely ignoring the ZIG post and the LD whack when making your vote? They don't really point at Bacon.
Which Zig post? The one where he shot himself in the foot?
The one thing I don't like is that if I make the next runoff, all 3 of us will have to vote the same way to have a chance to save me...
There is a huge clue in this besides the obvious. I think all the mafia at this point are splitting votes between Zig and Jaz. After re-reading I think 1 mafia has a vote on Zig & what Zig's saying is "I don't like this runoff because you're going to have to move your vote off of me and onto Jaz then explain yourself" I think 1 of the people Voting for Zig is mafia & I've already said who I suspect as mafia voting for Jaz. Maybe I'm wrong and I'm seeing patterns that appear to be there but really aren't, but I don't think so. Does anyone see a flaw in this line of logic or a different perspective to explain what he could have meant?
I actually think it's the opposite of this. I think there are no mafia on ZIG at this moment in time. Look at the 3 votes that would be free if this runoff were to start - Jimmy, Carini, Jaz. Jaz being in the runoff means that he is the 5th vote for ZIG. ZIG would have to assume that there are 5 votes set in stone against him - the 4 voting now, and Jaz. One may switch, but as a mafia trying to survive, he can't count on that.
Looking at the 4 ZIG voters at this point, we know LD is town, and I know I'm town. I think this reasonably exonerates the other two ZIG voters. If I were mafia with ZIG, why would the mafia all have to vote the same way to save ZIG? I'm already not voting with him at this point. The mafia would have a decent chance to save ZIG with my vote on him - could take the chance that Jimmy and Carini voted Jaz, or that only one of them did (because of course they would, to even it up), and then someone switches once the last voter chooses, if they choose ZIG. To me, saying that all 3 mafia will have to vote the same way means that nobody on ZIG at this moment in time was mafia.
In my mind, Tainted, Krissy, Jaz, and Bacon are likely town, based on voting records mostly. I also think either Jimmy or Carini is mafia, and possibly both. I'm not sure what to make of Monky and JR at this point, though JR's case for Krissy, which I find to be less compelling, could be damning to him. I'm not ready to vote for him yet.
Potent > Carini
But I could be talked into Jimmy. I need someone who I think is town to join me in getting Carini or Jimmy into the runoff. Calling Tainted OpossumkrissyjoJazbacon. One of you please band together with me to give the townies a chance.
I haven't read anything since the last time I posted, I just saw I was tagged so I'm checking in while my gf is peeing. Prob won't get a chance to read anything before the deadline. Sorry!
Looking at the 4 ZIG voters at this point, we know LD is town, and I know I'm town. I think this reasonably exonerates the other two ZIG voters. If I were mafia with ZIG, why would the mafia all have to vote the same way to save ZIG? I'm already not voting with him at this point. The mafia would have a decent chance to save ZIG with my vote on him - could take the chance that Jimmy and Carini voted Jaz, or that only one of them did (because of course they would, to even it up), and then someone switches once the last voter chooses, if they choose ZIG. To me, saying that all 3 mafia will have to vote the same way means that nobody on ZIG at this moment in time was mafia.
In my mind, Tainted, Krissy, Jaz, and Bacon are likely town, based on voting records mostly. I also think either Jimmy or Carini is mafia, and possibly both. I'm not sure what to make of Monky and JR at this point, though JR's case for Krissy, which I find to be less compelling, could be damning to him. I'm not ready to vote for him yet.
You spend a good bit of time explaining what mafia would be doing and what you (a townie, repeated) thinks of it. Your clairvoyance makes me little uncomfortable.
According to you: Potent - Can't be mafia because he voted for Zig on day 1 (I disagreed) (of course you would exonerate yourself)
LD - Can't be mafia because he voted for Zig on day 1 (confirmed before you posted)
Tainted - Can't be mafia because he voted for Zig on day 1 (I disagreed) Krissy - Can't be mafia because he voted for Zig on day 1 (I disagreed) Jaz - Probably not mafia due to his voting record Bacon - Probably not mafia due to his voting record
What's wrong with Jimmy, Carini, Monky, or JR's voting record in comparison?
I appreciate your trying to get information out of Bacon, but why are you completely ignoring the ZIG post and the LD whack when making your vote? They don't really point at Bacon.
Which Zig post? The one where he shot himself in the foot?
