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Ironically, Potent, I've never said I think Carini is a townie or even that I'm leaning that way. I just think the ZIG post points more to you than anyone else.
Ironically, Potent, I've never said I think Carini is a townie or even that I'm leaning that way. I just think the ZIG post points more to you than anyone else.
Ref Notes -This round is scheduled to end on Monday, May 16th, at 9 am CDT.
The normal end time for this round would have fallen on the weekend, hence the Monday deadline. However, if all players not involved in the runoff lock their votes, I will end the round early.
I said earlier that I'd get the kids on the bus then do a read through. I've not been able to read through yet. This is a useless post, I know, but I've played enough games with people who like to note the time differences in when someone said they'd do something and when they actually do it that I feel I need to keep an update. I've got work to do, so it will likely be later before I make any kind of gameplay post.
Oh, hey, anyone else notice that the runoff the town has chosen left the three people in the runoff as the three empty votes? This oughta be useful.
Potent > JR
not because I think JR is mafia but I do think Bacon is town.
So have you resigned yourself to the idea that no one that is mafia is in the runoff?
JR is on my list of suspects but I'm not sold on him being mafia. I do think out of the three in the runoff, he's most likely mafia. I think Bacon has a pretty good exoneration but part of that is based on knowing my own role.
Ironically, Potent, I've never said I think Carini is a townie or even that I'm leaning that way. I just think the ZIG post points more to you than anyone else.
So have you resigned yourself to the idea that no one that is mafia is in the runoff?
JR is on my list of suspects but I'm not sold on him being mafia. I do think out of the three in the runoff, he's most likely mafia. I think Bacon has a pretty good exoneration but part of that is based on knowing my own role.
I'll have to go back and do allot of re-reading. A couple of you have expressed you think Bacon is more town like than mafia. I can admit when I'm wrong, but right now I just don't think that I am. What is the exonerating evidence that I'm overlooking? It's kind of a bummer he's at Shaky Knees. I know if I were there I'd certainly be getting getting my groove on and not playing mafia so his lack of participation this round is to be expected.
Post by Tainted Opossum on May 12, 2016 12:36:13 GMT -5
Guys, I'm debating pulling the trigger on a GA ticket to roo. I know this is completely unrelated, but will someone shake me and try to knock some sense into me?
JR is on my list of suspects but I'm not sold on him being mafia. I do think out of the three in the runoff, he's most likely mafia. I think Bacon has a pretty good exoneration but part of that is based on knowing my own role.
I'll have to go back and do allot of re-reading. A couple of you have expressed you think Bacon is more town like than mafia. I can admit when I'm wrong, but right now I just don't think that I am. What is the exonerating evidence that I'm overlooking? It's kind of a bummer he's at Shaky Knees. I know if I were there I'd certainly be getting getting my groove on and not playing mafia so his lack of participation this round is to be expected.
Maybe I'm taking ZIG's mistake post too literally, but he said (and I'm doing this without quoting it again) essentially that to have any chance to save him, all 3 mafia would need to vote for Jaz. Implicit in his statement is that it is a bad thing for mafia to vote together, and I think also implicit is that they are not, at the point of his mistake, voting together. I also think this makes Jaz town. If Jaz were mafia, they'd realize they were pretty fucked but also be able to move a vote or two around and put me in instead of one of them. Jaz is town.
To me, to take what ZIG said literally, they did not need to vote together at that point in time. Maybe someone would switch the vote in the future, but that's not what ZIG's mistake is addressing.
So look at the free votes, the people voting for me - there were 4 votes Jaz, 4 votes ZIG, 3 votes Potent. The free votes to be were Carini, Jimmy, and Jaz. With a runoff of Jaz vs. ZIG, it's assumed that Jaz votes for ZIG. That gives ZIG 5 votes. However, if there's already a mafia on ZIG, there would be no cause, at the votes stood at that moment in time, for him to say that they all needed to vote together to save him. Carini and Jimmy both could have voted Jaz, and Jaz would have been lynched with 6 votes to ZIG's 5. This would have saved ZIG, and would have had the traditional 2-1 mafia split with ZIG and Mafia3 on Jaz, and Mafia2 on ZIG.
The fact that ZIG said they'd all have to vote together means he's concerned because there are 4 votes on ZIG that are town, with a 5th coming (Jaz). This is why I think there are no mafia among the ZIG voters.
As far as Bacon, go back to the vote he cast at the beginning of that same runoff. It was 3 Jaz, 3 Potent, 3 ZIG. Now, we know ZIG is mafia. You are assuming Bacon is mafia with him. With that assumption, you have to assume that Bacon would try to do what he could to keep ZIG out of the runoff. The two free votes were Bacon and Potent. Bacon takes his vote and puts it on Jaz, which means that my vote goes to ZIG because I'm not voting for myself. If Bacon were mafia, it would have made more sense to vote for me and make me decide between Jaz and ZIG, where I have a 50% chance of picking a mafia. By voting for Jaz, Bacon ensured that the mafia would get the 4th vote.
I've made it pretty clear that Bacon is low on my suspect list. Potent, however, is not coming across as kosher to me. Gut instinct combined with a feeling that his motives don't feel quite right. Mostly it's just a matter of if I had to peg either Bacon or Potent as mafia, it's Potent.
JR is on my list of suspects but I'm not sold on him being mafia. I do think out of the three in the runoff, he's most likely mafia. I think Bacon has a pretty good exoneration but part of that is based on knowing my own role.
I'll have to go back and do allot of re-reading. A couple of you have expressed you think Bacon is more town like than mafia. I can admit when I'm wrong, but right now I just don't think that I am. What is the exonerating evidence that I'm overlooking? It's kind of a bummer he's at Shaky Knees. I know if I were there I'd certainly be getting getting my groove on and not playing mafia so his lack of participation this round is to be expected.
He stacked ZIG earlier in the game when it was completely unnecessary for him to do so. Of course, it could have been distancing, but it's always hard to know in this game.
Ref Notes -This round is scheduled to end on Monday, May 16th, at 9 am CDT.
The normal end time for this round would have fallen on the weekend, hence the Monday deadline. However, if all players not involved in the runoff lock their votes, I will end the round early.
I'll have to go back and do allot of re-reading. A couple of you have expressed you think Bacon is more town like than mafia. I can admit when I'm wrong, but right now I just don't think that I am. What is the exonerating evidence that I'm overlooking? It's kind of a bummer he's at Shaky Knees. I know if I were there I'd certainly be getting getting my groove on and not playing mafia so his lack of participation this round is to be expected.
Maybe I'm taking ZIG's mistake post too literally, but he said (and I'm doing this without quoting it again) essentially that to have any chance to save him, all 3 mafia would need to vote for Jaz. Implicit in his statement is that it is a bad thing for mafia to vote together, and I think also implicit is that they are not, at the point of his mistake, voting together. I also think this makes Jaz town. If Jaz were mafia, they'd realize they were pretty fucked but also be able to move a vote or two around and put me in instead of one of them. Jaz is town.
To me, to take what ZIG said literally, they did not need to vote together at that point in time. Maybe someone would switch the vote in the future, but that's not what ZIG's mistake is addressing.
So look at the free votes, the people voting for me - there were 4 votes Jaz, 4 votes ZIG, 3 votes Potent. The free votes to be were Carini, Jimmy, and Jaz. With a runoff of Jaz vs. ZIG, it's assumed that Jaz votes for ZIG. That gives ZIG 5 votes. However, if there's already a mafia on ZIG, there would be no cause, at the votes stood at that moment in time, for him to say that they all needed to vote together to save him. Carini and Jimmy both could have voted Jaz, and Jaz would have been lynched with 6 votes to ZIG's 5. This would have saved ZIG, and would have had the traditional 2-1 mafia split with ZIG and Mafia3 on Jaz, and Mafia2 on ZIG.
The fact that ZIG said they'd all have to vote together means he's concerned because there are 4 votes on ZIG that are town, with a 5th coming (Jaz). This is why I think there are no mafia among the ZIG voters.
As far as Bacon, go back to the vote he cast at the beginning of that same runoff. It was 3 Jaz, 3 Potent, 3 ZIG. Now, we know ZIG is mafia. You are assuming Bacon is mafia with him. With that assumption, you have to assume that Bacon would try to do what he could to keep ZIG out of the runoff. The two free votes were Bacon and Potent. Bacon takes his vote and puts it on Jaz, which means that my vote goes to ZIG because I'm not voting for myself. If Bacon were mafia, it would have made more sense to vote for me and make me decide between Jaz and ZIG, where I have a 50% chance of picking a mafia. By voting for Jaz, Bacon ensured that the mafia would get the 4th vote.
Does that make sense?
I agree with you that Bacon is more likely town.
My issue is your logical leap that zero mafia were voting for ZIG. Just because it's possible does not mean it's true. (And I'll admit it's theoretically possible, which is why I haven't ruled out Carini yet). But it's just as likely if not more likely that a mafia had a vote on ZIG at the time.
The question then becomes, why am I so dead set on there being a mafia voting for ZIG at the time? It's because I'm thinking "what is ZIG responding to when making the post?" And that answer is either your vote for ZIG which, if you are mafia, I view as a distancing tactic (and one that would allow you to save zig later if necessary), or krissy's post. Because I think Krissy is more likely a townie, I'm going harder at you.
Is it possible I'm wrong about Krissy, and even Carini when evaluating their suspicion relative to you? Sure. But I'm going with what I think is more likely here.
The key question is what was ZIG responding to? And I think the most logical answer is you stacking him.
Unless you were going to vote for yourself I don't think Bacon will have any other choice.
Unless you or Tainted wanna go ahead and move your votes now. Personally I'd rather see Potent or JR get voted off over Bacon (and I feel like some of the town has expressed the same), so this is headed to a JR/Potent runoff anyway as far as I can tell. I'm not trying to force you to move your vote or anything - do what you want, obviously - but realistically you'll be choosing between the two of them anyhow and since it's the weekend I feel like waiting for an official two-person runoff will just drag things out. Just my two cents.
Guys, I'm debating pulling the trigger on a GA ticket to roo. I know this is completely unrelated, but will someone shake me and try to knock some sense into me?
There's a webcast. Buy a six pack, watch that, and come hang out in chat.
Post by monkybunney on May 12, 2016 18:59:54 GMT -5
OK so tainted just tipped the scales to Potent. I really don't like to move my vote from the person who I think is mafia to someone else I'm slightly less suspicious of. This is forcing me to vote for JR and Bacon will have to make the deciding vote. I'm really not a fan of this and everything about it seems mafia setup. At this point my vote on Bacon is a null vote. This sucks and everything about it seems like a setup. I'm going to hold my vote and see what Bacon does.
Post by monkybunney on May 12, 2016 19:36:27 GMT -5
Fine but I'm really not comfortable with this at all. I'm not going to vote to "even shit up" I'm going to vote for who I think is more likely mafia.
Monkybunney>>Bacon>>Potent
I'm voting for the more suspicious of the 2. As things stand I was planning on voting for Potent day 3. I'm less convinced Potent is mafia than Bacon. My reasoning is that I feel Potent has been trying to obfuscate the meaning of The Zig Post (TZP, you guys like acronyms right?) drawing attention away from himself and deflecting it on to others. At the same time I still don't think this is conclusive evidence but in my mind it's damning. Zig IMO was the likely looser of the Zig vs. Jaz runoff on D1 and It's very hard for me to imagine that he'd post what he said unless there was a mafia on him. Otherwise it's pointless. Of course all 3 would have to vote for Jaz to make sure he didn't get lynched. If you're mafia -good riddance and I thank the town for setting me straight. If you're town...well you said it best
