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The mafia kill seems to point at myself, Zig and JR because SFA was more vocal about us seeing how we were in the runoff. He also cautioned about having the same group in the runoff round after round and I do share his opinion on this, I have seen way too many games where the same folks were in there round after round which leads to an easy mafia win. Considering SFA agreed with and elaborated on Zig's post of the quiet three that's where I am going to start this round, the two he mentioned (besides me) were Carini and Taint. In my opinion we should have a runoff with one of them, one of me/zig/JR and one other person that hasn't been mentioned much or voted for Jaz/Thor/LD.
Something doesn't sit right with me about SFA's post wanting to vote JR, but not doing so because he thinks more discussion will happen with Zig/Rummy. I wouldn't be opposed to seeing JR in there again this round against some other folks that weren't in there last round, but wel see where the rest of the votes fall this round. For now I am going to take a shot at one of the others SFA elaborated on from Zig's post
Mike D >> Carini
so you voted at the start of Day based on my "quiet 3" theory. The options were You (Mike D) or Carini or Taint.
Why Carini over Taint?
At the time it was sort of a shot in the dark between those two, the only thing I saw that bumped Carini a little higher up was the talk of the final 4 votes in round 1. Granted I don't have recent games to base hunches off of and don't have too much time to go through the past X number of games, but several folks went back to that and I agree that can be easier for a mafia member to hold off and see how the runoff is shaping up before voting. Granted it was only 4 hours into the game and apparently there was some prior agreement between Carini and someone else to wait until there were only 4 players left. I do realize that isn't much at all but that small bit of suspicion was more than I had for Taint.
Carini hasn't voted or behaved in a way that to me would indicate mafia, I corrected my vote immediately after realizing it was going to vote him outright. I am looking for longer runoffs, as I feel there is more potential to slip when there is more conversation. Mafia agrees with this notion, game after game, by attempting to talk as little as possible. I'd venture to guess a statistical review of the last ten games would prove this to be valid more often than not. As for LD, I am actually highly suspect of Monky - LD threw Monky under the bus on day 1 with is theory from the past game. It doesn't click after that, they don't seem to gel. I could be completely going in the wrong direction, and straw man is always a possibility, but it is what I've observed.
monkybunney>Mike D. doubt Mike D. will vote for himself so it's up to Taint.
Its hardly up to me, but I appreciate the thought. As for now, my vote should be obvious
Tainted >> mike D
votes were essentially even since Mike D wouldn't vote for himself so you were the deciding vote at the moment. Interesting that above, LD was so sure that Monky was going to be the swing vote...
On mobile so I can't quote, but to go back to my theory of grouping people:
Since we know SFA was town, I know that either we had all mafia in the initial day one runoff, or that there is at least one mafia out of Thor /carini /ld /taint. The latter situation is much more likely in my opinion. I don't feel great about Mike D based on his gameplay, but given how the votes have shaken out, I feel more comfortable voting alongside jr and zig than I do the other group.
I'll expand upon this more when I'm not on mobile but I've gotta get back to work. Figured I'd start here though in case anyone wants to piggyback off of it and also to maintain my train of thought when I get on break.
I still don't know what your issue is with me and why you keep mentioning me as a Mafia suspect. What have I actually done that is suspect?
Its hardly up to me, but I appreciate the thought. As for now, my vote should be obvious
Tainted >> mike D
votes were essentially even since Mike D wouldn't vote for himself so you were the deciding vote at the moment. Interesting that above, LD was so sure that Monky was going to be the swing vote...
Based on Tainted not moving at the end of the last runoff, leaving Carini out, I'm assuming he didn't want the swing vote role and wanted Monky to take it. But then Monky voted before Tainted in this runoff.
On mobile so I can't quote, but to go back to my theory of grouping people:
Since we know SFA was town, I know that either we had all mafia in the initial day one runoff, or that there is at least one mafia out of Thor /carini /ld /taint. The latter situation is much more likely in my opinion. I don't feel great about Mike D based on his gameplay, but given how the votes have shaken out, I feel more comfortable voting alongside jr and zig than I do the other group.
I'll expand upon this more when I'm not on mobile but I've gotta get back to work. Figured I'd start here though in case anyone wants to piggyback off of it and also to maintain my train of thought when I get on break.
I still don't know what your issue is with me and why you keep mentioning me as a Mafia suspect. What have I actually done that is suspect?
Note: I accidentally liked this post and then immediately unliked it on instinct. Just wanted to put that out in the open.
You've already asked this, and I've already explained it. I know that out of you/Carini/LD/Taint, there's at least one Mafia (unless we had all three Mafia in the first runoff, which I don't think we did).
You're part of that group. I can't explain it much simpler than that.
Everyone in this game is a Mafia suspect. Somehow when that includes you (while also naming multiple other people) you take it as me "having an issue with you" and you wonder why you're a suspect in my eyes. That's a gross overreaction. Why are you so defensive?
It's also worth noting that when the mafia don't have a clue who the inspector is, it's usually a wise move to whack the most experienced/best townie.
Yes, I will be dumping more posts during this read thru of mine and I think I will touch on this. More to come...
This has been my biggest point of frustration so far in this game. I've run through the SFA as inspector scenario, but reading thru his posts, and honestly, most players' posts for Day 1, it seems difficult to get a gauge on that scenario. My guess is that it was a combination of getting an experienced player out of the game as well as providing some misdirection. If they happened to get the inspector, that would be a bonus. SFA really only discussed a few players in this game and I feel like a few players went down the path of voting in day 2 based on SFA's comments which I feel like would be classic misdirection.
I don't think I'm overreacting. You named me as someone you find suspicious, I asked you about it, and you admit it's a somewhat random suspicion. Then you bring me up again as someone you suspect, and instead of providing a real reason, you harken back to your original basis which you already admitted was random.
Forgive me for addressing people when they mention me by name as a suspect and fail to give any legitimate basis for their theory.
I would like to see LD lynched today. He is my most suspicious candidate so far based on the theory and posts I have presented. Mike D is also suspicious but I think he is closer to a coin toss since I think he and a few others are all in the same position.
Going forward, I think it's also important to point out that the following players have not been voted into a runoff yet this game (I did not include SFA because he is dead).
Jaz - 0 total votes Thor - 0 total votes Tainted - 1 total vote
I would like to see LD lynched today. He is my most suspicious candidate so far based on the theory and posts I have presented. Mike D is also suspicious but I think he is closer to a coin toss since I think he and a few others are all in the same position.
Going forward, I think it's also important to point out that the following players have not been voted into a runoff yet this game (I did not include SFA because he is dead).
Jaz - 0 total votes Thor - 0 total votes Tainted - 1 total vote
This may be the most beneficial thought in the entire pile of shit you left on this page. Kudos.
ZIG, no offense, but you've been making a lot of posts. Can you give me a short summary of what your theory is? I want to stay open minded but I'm having trouble following all your trains of thought.
Ultimately, my only real basis right now to vote for Mike D is that SFA voted for him and because Mike D hasn't posted much (although even that I'll admit is status quo for his play whether he's Mafia or not).
ZIG, no offense, but you've been making a lot of posts. Can you give me a short summary of what your theory is? I want to stay open minded but I'm having trouble following all your trains of thought.
Ultimately, my only real basis right now to vote for Mike D is that SFA voted for him and because Mike D hasn't posted much (although even that I'll admit is status quo for his play whether he's Mafia or not).
Here are some expanded thoughts that I have so far.
Rummy: I stewed over Rummy's status for a bit since her death. Since there was so little activity Day 1 leading up to her death, I think she was town. If she was Mafia, I feel like there would have been more vote switching and activity to try to keep her alive. I even ran a few scenarios with Rummy as Mafia, but wasn't able to find a plausible scenario that made much sense.
SFA: Clearly not Mafia since he was the Night 1 whack. I think with the lack of activity so far in this game, this whack made sense to me. SFA is typically an active player, has played a lot of games, and there wasn't a lot of information on many of the players to get a good read on everyone. Additionally, I will get to Day 1 voting pairs later, but SFA was my voting pair, so I believe this is also an attempt to throw some suspicion my way.
ZIG (me): I know I'm town.
This is how Day 1 voting ended:
Monky - 2 (Thor, Mike D) Mike D - 2 (SFA, ZIG) ZIG - 2 (JR, Monky) Rummy - 2 (Jaz, Taint) JR - 2 (LD, Carini) SFA - 1 (Rummy)
I pointed out the voting structure back in D1R2 after Rummy placed her vote onto me. Here is that post.
ZIG - 3 (JR, Monky, Rummy) Mike D - 2 (SFA, ZIG) Rummy - 2 (Jaz, Taint) Monky - 2 (Thor, Mike D) JR - 2 (LD, Carini)
Since a 5 person runoff is really rare, I think these voting groups will be important to come back to in future rounds.
When I made this post, my feeling was that the 3 Mafia members had all placed their votes on separate players during D1R1 and they probably had just 1 player in the runoff. Additionally, Rummy votes for me, and then I move my vote to her, effectively pushing 2 townspeople into the next runoff. This would have allowed the Mafia to sit back. So they did. Thor, not liking the current ZIG / Rummy option, switches his vote and pushed JR into the runoff here:
Something about a 5 person runoff to a 2 person runoff doesn't feel right to me, so I'm bumping it up to 3. Things are way too quiet. We might be missing the boat with zig and rummy.
Unknowingly, Thor pushes a third townie, JR into the runoff. Now the Mafia are sitting pretty, no one in the runoff, and no reason to ruffle feathers.
I promise I will get back to the voting pairs, but first LD.
I got a weird vibe from LD pretty early on in the game. I poked at him a couple times but didn't want to jump on him too hard, because I wanted to watch his play. Throughout the game I noticed that is posts had a slightly different vibe to them. In my post count research, I read through 19 games. Reading LD's posts gave me a similar feeling to when LD was Mafia in Mafia 83. Dexter Jr was a reference from that game, hence I made the Dexter JR reference here:
Additionally, looking back at the Day 1 initial voting, I thought LD's vote was a little strange. We all know Carini's vote is pre-determined, and for this game it was JR. So I thought it was interesting that LD held his vote to 7th (1 position outside of the "last 4" and avoid that suspicion) but then voted for JR, knowing Carini was yet to vote but would stack JR into the runoff.
If LD was Mafia, this would mean JR and Carini are probably town.
So I went back to the final D1R1 votes. Like I said, I felt that the Mafia were probably all split with no duplicate votes. I wanted to start crossing people off and making guesses on their status.
Monky - 2 (Thor-town, Mike D) Mike D - 2 (SFA-town, ZIG-town) ZIG - 2 (JR-town, Monky) Rummy - 2 (Jaz, Taint) JR - 2 (LD-Mafia, Carini-town) SFA - 1 (Rummy - town)
So you can see, based on the assumption that LD is Mafia, adding in the SFA whack, dropped me down to looking at 3 of the pairs instead of 5. This is how I arrived at the 4 players I don't know much about.
If I'm right so far, In this scenario, Mafia would be: LD and 2 of the following: Mike D, Monky, Jaz, Taint
Mike D makes a compelling case because he was a "last 4" voter as well as in the "quiet 3"
As for Monky, Jaz, and Taint, there isn't much to go on so far, but I would welcome feedback or questions about this theory.
ZIG, no offense, but you've been making a lot of posts. Can you give me a short summary of what your theory is? I want to stay open minded but I'm having trouble following all your trains of thought.
Ultimately, my only real basis right now to vote for Mike D is that SFA voted for him and because Mike D hasn't posted much (although even that I'll admit is status quo for his play whether he's Mafia or not).
Here are some expanded thoughts that I have so far.
Rummy: I stewed over Rummy's status for a bit since her death. Since there was so little activity Day 1 leading up to her death, I think she was town. If she was Mafia, I feel like there would have been more vote switching and activity to try to keep her alive. I even ran a few scenarios with Rummy as Mafia, but wasn't able to find a plausible scenario that made much sense.
SFA: Clearly not Mafia since he was the Night 1 whack. I think with the lack of activity so far in this game, this whack made sense to me. SFA is typically an active player, has played a lot of games, and there wasn't a lot of information on many of the players to get a good read on everyone. Additionally, I will get to Day 1 voting pairs later, but SFA was my voting pair, so I believe this is also an attempt to throw some suspicion my way.
ZIG (me): I know I'm town.
This is how Day 1 voting ended:
Monky - 2 (Thor, Mike D) Mike D - 2 (SFA, ZIG) ZIG - 2 (JR, Monky) Rummy - 2 (Jaz, Taint) JR - 2 (LD, Carini) SFA - 1 (Rummy)
I pointed out the voting structure back in D1R2 after Rummy placed her vote onto me. Here is that post.
When I made this post, my feeling was that the 3 Mafia members had all placed their votes on separate players during D1R1 and they probably had just 1 player in the runoff. Additionally, Rummy votes for me, and then I move my vote to her, effectively pushing 2 townspeople into the next runoff. This would have allowed the Mafia to sit back. So they did. Thor, not liking the current ZIG / Rummy option, switches his vote and pushed JR into the runoff here:
Unknowingly, Thor pushes a third townie, JR into the runoff. Now the Mafia are sitting pretty, no one in the runoff, and no reason to ruffle feathers.
I promise I will get back to the voting pairs, but first LD.
I got a weird vibe from LD pretty early on in the game. I poked at him a couple times but didn't want to jump on him too hard, because I wanted to watch his play. Throughout the game I noticed that is posts had a slightly different vibe to them. In my post count research, I read through 19 games. Reading LD's posts gave me a similar feeling to when LD was Mafia in Mafia 83. Dexter Jr was a reference from that game, hence I made the Dexter JR reference here:
Additionally, looking back at the Day 1 initial voting, I thought LD's vote was a little strange. We all know Carini's vote is pre-determined, and for this game it was JR. So I thought it was interesting that LD held his vote to 7th (1 position outside of the "last 4" and avoid that suspicion) but then voted for JR, knowing Carini was yet to vote but would stack JR into the runoff.
If LD was Mafia, this would mean JR and Carini are probably town.
So I went back to the final D1R1 votes. Like I said, I felt that the Mafia were probably all split with no duplicate votes. I wanted to start crossing people off and making guesses on their status.
Monky - 2 (Thor-town, Mike D) Mike D - 2 (SFA-town, ZIG-town) ZIG - 2 (JR-town, Monky) Rummy - 2 (Jaz, Taint) JR - 2 (LD-Mafia, Carini-town) SFA - 1 (Rummy - town)
So you can see, based on the assumption that LD is Mafia, adding in the SFA whack, dropped me down to looking at 3 of the pairs instead of 5. This is how I arrived at the 4 players I don't know much about.
If I'm right so far, In this scenario, Mafia would be: LD and 2 of the following: Mike D, Monky, Jaz, Taint
Mike D makes a compelling case because he was a "last 4" voter as well as in the "quiet 3"
As for Monky, Jaz, and Taint, there isn't much to go on so far, but I would welcome feedback or questions about this theory.
Short Version: Mafia: LD 2 of Mike D, Monky, Jaz, Tainted
My posts since the beginning of Day 2 have mainly been in support of this theory. Today's post dump was from a reread I did this morning. As I found posts of note that I wanted to bring attention to, I posted them. I'm always on mobile so it's more difficult to jump around and makes things as simple and logical as possible.
I think the spoilered post actually lays out your theory pretty clearly. The problem is your theory is largely premised on a bad vibe you get from LD. You're welcome to base your vote on a vibe. At the end of the day only 4 of 11 players have anything more to work with.
But I look at voting for LD as going along with Jaz who has named me twice as a suspect, JR who pretty much hasn't posted this round, and you, who regardless of the vibe I may get is still someone SFA actually voted for. At the same time, I can stay on Mike D who SFA also voted for and I think generally people agree hasn't exactly made his case as a townie.
Having said that, I can't pretend like I'm super confident voting either way. LD doesn't really scream townie to me like perhaps Carini does.
I think the spoilered post actually lays out your theory pretty clearly. The problem is your theory is largely premised on a bad vibe you get from LD. You're welcome to base your vote on a vibe. At the end of the day only 4 of 11 players have anything more to work with.
But I look at voting for LD as going along with Jaz who has named me twice as a suspect, JR who pretty much hasn't posted this round, and you, who regardless of the vibe I may get is still someone SFA actually voted for. At the same time, I can stay on Mike D who SFA also voted for and I think generally people agree hasn't exactly made his case as a townie.
Having said that, I can't pretend like I'm super confident voting either way. LD doesn't really scream townie to me like perhaps Carini does.
I would suggest a reread with my theory of mind. Yes, I get a vibe from LD, but his voting and posts, many of which I haven't pointed out seem to fit the theory. I've run several other theories during retreads. And none of them make nearly as much sense.
^^and I think it's important to point out that Jaz's logic, looking at the middle Day 1 voters, also includesTaint and LD. I just don't think he has pinned down who he finds most suspicious in that group, but it feels like his logic would also fit with mine a bit.
A lot of my lack of participation is based on two things. I don't have a whole lot of strong feelings here and I don't have as much time for multiple rereads as in the last 2 games.
My thoughts on Mike D are that either he's quiet because he's mafia or he's just not committed to the game. He's not active on Inforoo and hasn't been in some time.
My thoughts on LD are that his back and forth with ZIG has been reminiscent of my back and forth with ZIG in the last game, and we were both town. He's hard for me to read, because I always find him a little scummy. The first time I really trust him will be the first time I know for sure that he's mafia.
So here I stand, 50/50 on both of the guys in the runoff.
Outside the runoff. I do think ZIG's summary of his feelings made a reread easier (so I could skip his yesterday full of a comment on everything) and I still feel like he's most likely town. If I make it to Day 3, I plan to have a reread complete with an eye towards Monky and Tainted.
Post by potentpotables on Jun 28, 2016 21:00:59 GMT -5
Round is over. Mike D is dead. Mafia send me your whack, inspector send me your guess. I will plan on announcing the whack in a six hour increment, so either 4am, 10am, or 4pm. Most likely not 4am.
Dammit. Got to the end of my drunken post-liking spree and Photobucket was down. No thumbs up photos for a cherry on top?
Also, could Player Who Shall Remain Nameless who PMed me in the course of that specify whether they meant to call me a dickbag or a douchebag? Thanks in advance.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
Dammit. Got to the end of my drunken post-liking spree and Photobucket was down. No thumbs up photos for a cherry on top?
Also, could Player Who Shall Remain Nameless who PMed me in the course of that specify whether they meant to call me a dickbag or a douchebag? Thanks in advance.
You afraid to name me douchebag? Some people actually have a real job that requires them to get up at 6am. Grow the fuck up.
