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Dammit. Got to the end of my drunken post-liking spree and Photobucket was down. No thumbs up photos for a cherry on top?
Also, could Player Who Shall Remain Nameless who PMed me in the course of that specify whether they meant to call me a dickbag or a douchebag? Thanks in advance.
You afraid to name me douchebag? Some people actually have a real job that requires them to get up at 6am. Grow the fuck up.
After going through a bunch of different scenarios, I’ve found near conclusively that Rummy is town. There are still a few outlying scenarios, but there’s enough evidence against her being Mafia that I’m going to make that assumption when looking at the game from this point forward. As stated before, I’m going with my initial way of breaking the game up into groups.
Also, please note that if I rule out certain groups of people, I’m doing so only under the subheading I’m working with. If that needs clarification I can give it later but I have everything formatted and indented so hopefully it’s clear. Now here we go!
Group A (Day 1 runoff contestants): Rummy/Mike D/JR/Monky/ZIG Group B (Not in Day 1 runoff): Thor/LD/Carini/Tainted Town: SFA/Jaz
Potential outcomes: 1. All three Mafia are in Group A. a. I think this is unlikely.
2. All three Mafia are in Group B. a. I think this is unlikely.
3. One Mafia in Group A.
A. Rummy was Mafia, with two Mafia out of Group B. 1. The final vote for Rummy was Rummy - 6 (Jaz, Taint, ZIG, Mike D, Carini, Thor). Since in this scenario two out of LD/Carini/Thor/Tainted would be Mafia, and Taint never took his vote off her since Round 1 and both Thor and Carini voted for her, this would mean that the Mafia would have had ample opportunity throughout the Day’s multiple runoffs to help save Rummy from the runoff and did not do so. Thus, I conclude it is FALSE that Scenario 3A is the case. LD could have been Mafia with her, but then Taint wouldn’t have held his vote on her and Thor/Carini wouldn’t have voted for her.
B. Rummy was town. 1. One Mafia out of Mike D/JR/Monky/ZIG and two Mafia out of Group B. a. Mike D 1. Ruling out because I don’t see all three Mafia voting together for no reason unnecessarily: Mike D/Carini/Thor, Mike D/Carini/Taint, Mike D/Taint/Thor 2. Possible: Mike D/Carini/LD, Mike D/Taint/LD, Mike D/Thor/LD. This tells us that in a scenario in which there was ONE Mafia in the initial runoff, IF that Mafia was Mike D, one of his partners was LD. Which means we did good this past Day. This, however, gives us no info on the potential third. b. JR 1. Still a potential Mafia in this scenario, most likely with Taint if this is the case. This is because of the way the 3-way runoff shaped up – all three Group B-ers other than Taint voted for JR this round, so I would rule out JR/LD/Carini, JR/LD/Thor, and JR/Carini/Thor. I wouldn’t see both of two Mafia voting for one of their own this early in the game. 2. This leaves: JR/Taint/LD, JR/Taint/Carini, JR/Taint/Thor. These possibilities are bolstered by the fact that all of these combos fit into the final votes of Day 2 if we assume a 2-1 Mafia split. c. Monky 1. If he is NOT Mafia with LD, then we can rule out Monky/Taint/Thor, Monky/Taint/Carini, and Monky/Carini/Thor, based on the fact that there would be no need for all three of them to vote together at the end of Day 2. 2. If he IS Mafia with LD, then we can pair them with literally any Group B-er, which will preserve a 2-1 split in Day 1, with all 3 Mafia votes necessary to vote out Mike D in Day 2. d. ZIG 1. ZIG is a bit trickier since he’s still alive and was also involved in the Day 1 final runoff. This means that all ZIG/two Group B-ers combos are still on the table – they would have needed all three votes to keep him alive in Day 1, would have had an easy 2-1 split in Day 2 regardless of whether or not one of his partners is LD.
4. Two Mafia in Group A.
A. Rummy was Mafia 1. Rummy/ZIG/Group B-er a. In this scenario, ZIG would be town, since ZIG and Rummy voted for each other and are the reason they both went forward into the final runoff of Day 1. They obviously aren’t working together. 2. Rummy/JR/Group B-er a. I am almost completely ruling this one out for the same reason as 3A1. Rummy and JR were both on ZIG, but Taint was on Rummy, and Carini and Thor both voted for Rummy. The only remaining possibility here would be Rummy/JR/LD – but JR had his vote on LD at the end of Day 2, which I think makes it more likely that they were not working together. It is possible that JR had his vote on LD for distancing and then the town did the rest of the work for them in voting out Mike D, but I’m putting that low on the probability list. 3. Rummy/Mike D/Group B-er a. I don’t think so, because Mike D voted for Rummy over ZIG and JR in Day 1, and because all the other Group B-ers except for LD voted for Mike D in Day 2. 4. Rummy/Monky/Group B-er a. Possible, but only if the Group B-er was LD and the town ended up successfully lynching Rummy with all three Mafia being on ZIG. LD and Monky voting together on Mike D in Day 2 makes sense here also.
B. Rummy was town. 1. Two Mafia out of Mike D/JR/Monky/ZIG, one out of Thor/LD/Carini/Tainted a. Mike D 1. If not Mafia with LD, we can rule out Mike D/Monky/Group B-er because Monky wouldn’t have voted for Mike D at the end of Day 2. If it was Mike D/Monky/LD, however, Monky wouldn’t have had a choice. 2. We can rule out Mike D/Group A-er/Taint as well, due to Taint’s vote at the end of Day 2. 3. The more I think about it, the more I think we can rule out all combos of Mike D/Group A-er/Group B-ers, simply because all the Group B-ers voted for Mike D at the end of Day 2. Thor and Carini would have had opportunities to move their votes off of Mike D, and Taint wouldn’t have placed a deciding vote on his teammate. The only other scenarios would be if Thor and Carini felt stuck on Mike D or kept their vote on him for distancing. Possible, but probably in the further realms of possibility. b. JR 1. Not Mafia with LD under this scenario, due to final voting in Day 2. 2. Pretty much all other options are still on the table with JR. Even if he was Mafia with ZIG and voted for him Day 1, the Group B-er in this trio and the rest of the townies were enough to have Rummy voted off. All JR/ZIG/Group B-er combos and JR/Monky/Group B-er combos fit the 2-1 split for both Days’ final runoffs. c. ZIG and Monky 1. I’m getting tired so I’m grouping these two together. Basically nearly all ZIG OR Monky/Group A-er not named Mike/Group B-er combos are still on the table, because all the 2-1 splits are possible for Days 1 and 2. 2. However, we can rule out ZIG and Monky working together since Monky added ZIG to the Day 1 runoff at the end of Day 1 Round 1.
At this point, none of y’all fuckers can say I haven’t done my due diligence. There are outside possibilities that could still be the case (such as us having NO or ALL Mafia in the Day 1 runoff, in which case this whole post is completely fucked), but after analyzing all these possibilities I feel pretty safe saying that Rummy was town (unless potentially Rummy/Monky/Group B-er), and that Mike D was PROBABLY town as well, unless he was Mafia with LD or the caveat mentioned in 4B1a3.
Other things I noticed when going through all this was that scenarios involving LD came up a lot, and that Carini, Thor, and Taint ended up voting together at the end of both runoffs. In some senses this made my analyses easier because it let me rule out scenarios where two of them + a Group A-er all voted together unnecessarily, but on the other hand it also leaves a lot of two of them + a Group A-er scenarios open because I can’t conclusively rule them out.
After going through a bunch of different scenarios, I’ve found near conclusively that Rummy is town. There are still a few outlying scenarios, but there’s enough evidence against her being Mafia that I’m going to make that assumption when looking at the game from this point forward. As stated before, I’m going with my initial way of breaking the game up into groups.
Also, please note that if I rule out certain groups of people, I’m doing so only under the subheading I’m working with. If that needs clarification I can give it later but I have everything formatted and indented so hopefully it’s clear. Now here we go!
Group A (Day 1 runoff contestants): Rummy/Mike D/JR/Monky/ZIG Group B (Not in Day 1 runoff): Thor/LD/Carini/Tainted Town: SFA/Jaz
Potential outcomes: 1. All three Mafia are in Group A. a. I think this is unlikely.
2. All three Mafia are in Group B. a. I think this is unlikely.
3. One Mafia in Group A.
A. Rummy was Mafia, with two Mafia out of Group B. 1. The final vote for Rummy was Rummy - 6 (Jaz, Taint, ZIG, Mike D, Carini, Thor). Since in this scenario two out of LD/Carini/Thor/Tainted would be Mafia, and Taint never took his vote off her since Round 1 and both Thor and Carini voted for her, this would mean that the Mafia would have had ample opportunity throughout the Day’s multiple runoffs to help save Rummy from the runoff and did not do so. Thus, I conclude it is FALSE that Scenario 3A is the case. LD could have been Mafia with her, but then Taint wouldn’t have held his vote on her and Thor/Carini wouldn’t have voted for her.
B. Rummy was town. 1. One Mafia out of Mike D/JR/Monky/ZIG and two Mafia out of Group B. a. Mike D 1. Ruling out because I don’t see all three Mafia voting together for no reason unnecessarily: Mike D/Carini/Thor, Mike D/Carini/Taint, Mike D/Taint/Thor 2. Possible: Mike D/Carini/LD, Mike D/Taint/LD, Mike D/Thor/LD. This tells us that in a scenario in which there was ONE Mafia in the initial runoff, IF that Mafia was Mike D, one of his partners was LD. Which means we did good this past Day. This, however, gives us no info on the potential third. b. JR 1. Still a potential Mafia in this scenario, most likely with Taint if this is the case. This is because of the way the 3-way runoff shaped up – all three Group B-ers other than Taint voted for JR this round, so I would rule out JR/LD/Carini, JR/LD/Thor, and JR/Carini/Thor. I wouldn’t see both of two Mafia voting for one of their own this early in the game. 2. This leaves: JR/Taint/LD, JR/Taint/Carini, JR/Taint/Thor. These possibilities are bolstered by the fact that all of these combos fit into the final votes of Day 2 if we assume a 2-1 Mafia split. c. Monky 1. If he is NOT Mafia with LD, then we can rule out Monky/Taint/Thor, Monky/Taint/Carini, and Monky/Carini/Thor, based on the fact that there would be no need for all three of them to vote together at the end of Day 2. 2. If he IS Mafia with LD, then we can pair them with literally any Group B-er, which will preserve a 2-1 split in Day 1, with all 3 Mafia votes necessary to vote out Mike D in Day 2. d. ZIG 1. ZIG is a bit trickier since he’s still alive and was also involved in the Day 1 final runoff. This means that all ZIG/two Group B-ers combos are still on the table – they would have needed all three votes to keep him alive in Day 1, would have had an easy 2-1 split in Day 2 regardless of whether or not one of his partners is LD.
4. Two Mafia in Group A.
A. Rummy was Mafia 1. Rummy/ZIG/Group B-er a. In this scenario, ZIG would be town, since ZIG and Rummy voted for each other and are the reason they both went forward into the final runoff of Day 1. They obviously aren’t working together. 2. Rummy/JR/Group B-er a. I am almost completely ruling this one out for the same reason as 3A1. Rummy and JR were both on ZIG, but Taint was on Rummy, and Carini and Thor both voted for Rummy. The only remaining possibility here would be Rummy/JR/LD – but JR had his vote on LD at the end of Day 2, which I think makes it more likely that they were not working together. It is possible that JR had his vote on LD for distancing and then the town did the rest of the work for them in voting out Mike D, but I’m putting that low on the probability list. 3. Rummy/Mike D/Group B-er a. I don’t think so, because Mike D voted for Rummy over ZIG and JR in Day 1, and because all the other Group B-ers except for LD voted for Mike D in Day 2. 4. Rummy/Monky/Group B-er a. Possible, but only if the Group B-er was LD and the town ended up successfully lynching Rummy with all three Mafia being on ZIG. LD and Monky voting together on Mike D in Day 2 makes sense here also.
B. Rummy was town. 1. Two Mafia out of Mike D/JR/Monky/ZIG, one out of Thor/LD/Carini/Tainted a. Mike D 1. If not Mafia with LD, we can rule out Mike D/Monky/Group B-er because Monky wouldn’t have voted for Mike D at the end of Day 2. If it was Mike D/Monky/LD, however, Monky wouldn’t have had a choice. 2. We can rule out Mike D/Group A-er/Taint as well, due to Taint’s vote at the end of Day 2. 3. The more I think about it, the more I think we can rule out all combos of Mike D/Group A-er/Group B-ers, simply because all the Group B-ers voted for Mike D at the end of Day 2. Thor and Carini would have had opportunities to move their votes off of Mike D, and Taint wouldn’t have placed a deciding vote on his teammate. The only other scenarios would be if Thor and Carini felt stuck on Mike D or kept their vote on him for distancing. Possible, but probably in the further realms of possibility. b. JR 1. Not Mafia with LD under this scenario, due to final voting in Day 2. 2. Pretty much all other options are still on the table with JR. Even if he was Mafia with ZIG and voted for him Day 1, the Group B-er in this trio and the rest of the townies were enough to have Rummy voted off. All JR/ZIG/Group B-er combos and JR/Monky/Group B-er combos fit the 2-1 split for both Days’ final runoffs. c. ZIG and Monky 1. I’m getting tired so I’m grouping these two together. Basically nearly all ZIG OR Monky/Group A-er not named Mike/Group B-er combos are still on the table, because all the 2-1 splits are possible for Days 1 and 2. 2. However, we can rule out ZIG and Monky working together since Monky added ZIG to the Day 1 runoff at the end of Day 1 Round 1.
At this point, none of y’all fuckers can say I haven’t done my due diligence. There are outside possibilities that could still be the case (such as us having NO or ALL Mafia in the Day 1 runoff, in which case this whole post is completely fucked), but after analyzing all these possibilities I feel pretty safe saying that Rummy was town (unless potentially Rummy/Monky/Group B-er), and that Mike D was PROBABLY town as well, unless he was Mafia with LD or the caveat mentioned in 4B1a3.
Other things I noticed when going through all this was that scenarios involving LD came up a lot, and that Carini, Thor, and Taint ended up voting together at the end of both runoffs. In some senses this made my analyses easier because it let me rule out scenarios where two of them + a Group A-er all voted together unnecessarily, but on the other hand it also leaves a lot of two of them + a Group A-er scenarios open because I can’t conclusively rule them out.
Scenario 4a4a was the scenario I landed on if Rummy was Mafia. I even created a detailed list post on day 1 in my phone notes for it but after doing the research, even that scenario felt like a stretch.
After all this research, what scenario are you leaning towards that seems the most plausible?
Post by potentpotables on Jun 29, 2016 9:17:01 GMT -5
Well, after the gang arrived at MSP they ran into some trouble, as evidence by the deaths of Rummy and Superfurryanimal. Nevertheless, the gang resolved to get to Paisley Park to pay their respects to the G.O.A.T. and to see if they could catch a glimpse of the fabled Vault. So the gang jumped on the light rail and headed toward downtown.
First stop was Nicollet Mall, to stop by Brit’s Pub for some of my personal favorite activities – day drinking, rooftop lawn bowling, and Brit’s famous curry and chips. The match got pretty heated, as the teams were evenly matched, and a wager was proferred. Both sides quickly agreed that the losing side would be subject to pay the hefty bar tab. The match came down to the last throw, and it was Mike D making the deciding shot. As he failed, his teammates sat dejectedly while the winners violently celebrated – so violently, in fact, that Mike was thrown from the roof, meeting his demise on the unforgiving concrete below.
The gang gasped in horror! That’s already three people that have perished on this trip to pay respects to the Purple One. However, they would need to soldier on. The group ordered a last round of drinks and some more curry and chips. As the food was delivered, one of the cunning mafia slipped some rat poison in one of the curry bowls. Little did one member of the group know that this bite of curry would be his last.
I never pay attention to that "pre-determined" garbage. What is it again? (Yes, I'm serious). I usually just take votes at face value regardless of stated reasoning.
I never pay attention to that "pre-determined" garbage. What is it again? (Yes, I'm serious). I usually just take votes at face value regardless of stated reasoning.
Carini always votes Day 1 for the name above his on the initial roster of players.
I never pay attention to that "pre-determined" garbage. What is it again? (Yes, I'm serious). I usually just take votes at face value regardless of stated reasoning.
Carini always votes Day 1 for the name above his on the initial roster of players.
After going through a bunch of different scenarios, I’ve found near conclusively that Rummy is town. There are still a few outlying scenarios, but there’s enough evidence against her being Mafia that I’m going to make that assumption when looking at the game from this point forward. As stated before, I’m going with my initial way of breaking the game up into groups.
Also, please note that if I rule out certain groups of people, I’m doing so only under the subheading I’m working with. If that needs clarification I can give it later but I have everything formatted and indented so hopefully it’s clear. Now here we go!
Group A (Day 1 runoff contestants): Rummy/Mike D/JR/Monky/ZIG Group B (Not in Day 1 runoff): Thor/LD/Carini/Tainted Town: SFA/Jaz
Potential outcomes: 1. All three Mafia are in Group A. a. I think this is unlikely.
2. All three Mafia are in Group B. a. I think this is unlikely.
3. One Mafia in Group A.
A. Rummy was Mafia, with two Mafia out of Group B. 1. The final vote for Rummy was Rummy - 6 (Jaz, Taint, ZIG, Mike D, Carini, Thor). Since in this scenario two out of LD/Carini/Thor/Tainted would be Mafia, and Taint never took his vote off her since Round 1 and both Thor and Carini voted for her, this would mean that the Mafia would have had ample opportunity throughout the Day’s multiple runoffs to help save Rummy from the runoff and did not do so. Thus, I conclude it is FALSE that Scenario 3A is the case. LD could have been Mafia with her, but then Taint wouldn’t have held his vote on her and Thor/Carini wouldn’t have voted for her.
B. Rummy was town. 1. One Mafia out of Mike D/JR/Monky/ZIG and two Mafia out of Group B. a. Mike D 1. Ruling out because I don’t see all three Mafia voting together for no reason unnecessarily: Mike D/Carini/Thor, Mike D/Carini/Taint, Mike D/Taint/Thor 2. Possible: Mike D/Carini/LD, Mike D/Taint/LD, Mike D/Thor/LD. This tells us that in a scenario in which there was ONE Mafia in the initial runoff, IF that Mafia was Mike D, one of his partners was LD. Which means we did good this past Day. This, however, gives us no info on the potential third. b. JR 1. Still a potential Mafia in this scenario, most likely with Taint if this is the case. This is because of the way the 3-way runoff shaped up – all three Group B-ers other than Taint voted for JR this round, so I would rule out JR/LD/Carini, JR/LD/Thor, and JR/Carini/Thor. I wouldn’t see both of two Mafia voting for one of their own this early in the game. 2. This leaves: JR/Taint/LD, JR/Taint/Carini, JR/Taint/Thor. These possibilities are bolstered by the fact that all of these combos fit into the final votes of Day 2 if we assume a 2-1 Mafia split. c. Monky 1. If he is NOT Mafia with LD, then we can rule out Monky/Taint/Thor, Monky/Taint/Carini, and Monky/Carini/Thor, based on the fact that there would be no need for all three of them to vote together at the end of Day 2. 2. If he IS Mafia with LD, then we can pair them with literally any Group B-er, which will preserve a 2-1 split in Day 1, with all 3 Mafia votes necessary to vote out Mike D in Day 2. d. ZIG 1. ZIG is a bit trickier since he’s still alive and was also involved in the Day 1 final runoff. This means that all ZIG/two Group B-ers combos are still on the table – they would have needed all three votes to keep him alive in Day 1, would have had an easy 2-1 split in Day 2 regardless of whether or not one of his partners is LD.
4. Two Mafia in Group A.
A. Rummy was Mafia 1. Rummy/ZIG/Group B-er a. In this scenario, ZIG would be town, since ZIG and Rummy voted for each other and are the reason they both went forward into the final runoff of Day 1. They obviously aren’t working together. 2. Rummy/JR/Group B-er a. I am almost completely ruling this one out for the same reason as 3A1. Rummy and JR were both on ZIG, but Taint was on Rummy, and Carini and Thor both voted for Rummy. The only remaining possibility here would be Rummy/JR/LD – but JR had his vote on LD at the end of Day 2, which I think makes it more likely that they were not working together. It is possible that JR had his vote on LD for distancing and then the town did the rest of the work for them in voting out Mike D, but I’m putting that low on the probability list. 3. Rummy/Mike D/Group B-er a. I don’t think so, because Mike D voted for Rummy over ZIG and JR in Day 1, and because all the other Group B-ers except for LD voted for Mike D in Day 2. 4. Rummy/Monky/Group B-er a. Possible, but only if the Group B-er was LD and the town ended up successfully lynching Rummy with all three Mafia being on ZIG. LD and Monky voting together on Mike D in Day 2 makes sense here also.
B. Rummy was town. 1. Two Mafia out of Mike D/JR/Monky/ZIG, one out of Thor/LD/Carini/Tainted a. Mike D 1. If not Mafia with LD, we can rule out Mike D/Monky/Group B-er because Monky wouldn’t have voted for Mike D at the end of Day 2. If it was Mike D/Monky/LD, however, Monky wouldn’t have had a choice. 2. We can rule out Mike D/Group A-er/Taint as well, due to Taint’s vote at the end of Day 2. 3. The more I think about it, the more I think we can rule out all combos of Mike D/Group A-er/Group B-ers, simply because all the Group B-ers voted for Mike D at the end of Day 2. Thor and Carini would have had opportunities to move their votes off of Mike D, and Taint wouldn’t have placed a deciding vote on his teammate. The only other scenarios would be if Thor and Carini felt stuck on Mike D or kept their vote on him for distancing. Possible, but probably in the further realms of possibility. b. JR 1. Not Mafia with LD under this scenario, due to final voting in Day 2. 2. Pretty much all other options are still on the table with JR. Even if he was Mafia with ZIG and voted for him Day 1, the Group B-er in this trio and the rest of the townies were enough to have Rummy voted off. All JR/ZIG/Group B-er combos and JR/Monky/Group B-er combos fit the 2-1 split for both Days’ final runoffs. c. ZIG and Monky 1. I’m getting tired so I’m grouping these two together. Basically nearly all ZIG OR Monky/Group A-er not named Mike/Group B-er combos are still on the table, because all the 2-1 splits are possible for Days 1 and 2. 2. However, we can rule out ZIG and Monky working together since Monky added ZIG to the Day 1 runoff at the end of Day 1 Round 1.
At this point, none of y’all fuckers can say I haven’t done my due diligence. There are outside possibilities that could still be the case (such as us having NO or ALL Mafia in the Day 1 runoff, in which case this whole post is completely fucked), but after analyzing all these possibilities I feel pretty safe saying that Rummy was town (unless potentially Rummy/Monky/Group B-er), and that Mike D was PROBABLY town as well, unless he was Mafia with LD or the caveat mentioned in 4B1a3.
Other things I noticed when going through all this was that scenarios involving LD came up a lot, and that Carini, Thor, and Taint ended up voting together at the end of both runoffs. In some senses this made my analyses easier because it let me rule out scenarios where two of them + a Group A-er all voted together unnecessarily, but on the other hand it also leaves a lot of two of them + a Group A-er scenarios open because I can’t conclusively rule them out.
Scenario 4a4a was the scenario I landed on if Rummy was Mafia. I even created a detailed list post on day 1 in my phone notes for it but after doing the research, even that scenario felt like a stretch.
After all this research, what scenario are you leaning towards that seems the most plausible?
It's hard to say. In light of the Carini whack, I feel like scenarios involving Mike D are more likely, though I've ruled him out of a lot of possible scenarios. Right now I want to look at Monky and LD more. Based on gameplay I'm pretty sure Thor is town. So for me now, the potential Group A-ers are you, JR, Monky, and to a lesser extent Mike D, and the Group B-ers still in play for me are Taint and LD. Part of me would like a Taint/LD runoff, but if Rummy and Mike D were both town, we risk losing the game if we lynch the wrong person. I still need to compile and look at all of Carini's posts.
I believe that our most likely spot for a mafia in this runoff was in the original 3. Once that happened a 4th (standard) and 5th (not so standard) were added. Since Zig was the last added and Rummy in the first 3 my vote moves there
I still believe that there is mafia in our original 3, poss more then 1 in our original runoff of 5. SFA didn't want to move his vote off Mike and he wasn't as strongly after the others verbally in his posts. JR is also an interesting choice as he was also in the original 3 and SFA did mention wanting to vote for him,
Guys i just got out of my nmls exam- I passed! Third attempt out of three possible, 80%, I am on cloud 9!!! This has consumed my mind heart and life for months and it is finally done
I find it interesting that I have stated that I believe the Mafia to be LD and 2 of Mike D, Jaz, Monky, and Taint...and Mike D, Monky, and Jaz are all voting for Carini, and then Taint tried to vote for Carini but then moved to me where LD had already placed his vote.
People love to incorrectly vote for me. Happens every time I'm town
The only voting pairs I see have been Thor and Carini, starting in Day 1 Round 2 they were both on JR, then both on Rummy, now they are paired up against me. Ya it's still kinda early in the game and we only have 1 mafia kill to go off of, but I posted my view of the kill and seeing this pair voting again makes me suspicious enough to keep my vote where it is. I am glad to see that we have one of the folks in the runoff that SFA mentioned but didn't vote for (Carini), one not directly related to the kill (LD) and 2 from the previous runoff (Zig and myself). From my point of view it would be beneficial to drop either Zig or myself from the runoff first and see how the votes go from there.
SFA actually never mentioned me direct. He said the group of quiet people Zig posted should be looked at and I was a member.
If I was mafia wouldn't one of my mates have given me a runoff of some kind a little sooner?
If you were/are mafia, why would your mafia mates put you in the runoff if you aren't in any danger of being in one? I don't really understand that question.
Not put me in runoff. Give me one as in push someone else up to 3 so I wouldn't be at risk of a straight vote out.
What sticks out to me is that twice Carini mentioned that he thinks we had a Mafia in our original three-person runoff before ZIG and Mike D got added. That's JR/Monky/Rummy. He then also not only end up holding is vote on Mike D in Day two, but he also asked someone to move to Mike D, as well as asked ZIG what changed in regarding to wanting Mike D in the runoff. Lastly, he subtly cast suspicion on Mike D by saying that if SFA was inspector, SFA might have known he was a target for the whack and voted for his given name...Mike D.
If Mike D was Mafia and Carini was correct that there was a Mafia out of JR/Monky/Rummy, I think we have to look at 4B1a in my post from last night. This pretty much leaves LD as the Group B-er, and either JR or Monky as the Group A-er. I nearly ruled out a Mike D/Group A/Group B Mafia, but if LD was Mafia with Mike D I think things would still fit.
Actually scratch that theory, LD put his vote on Mike D instead of ZIG before the Day 2 runoff narrowed down. Unless that was a distancing move, I don't see them two working together. I'm still suspicious of LD though so my vote will stay for right now.
I liked Jaz's thought process so I have been doing some research.
First. There are technically 165 possible Mafia combinations at the start of the game. I wanted to go thru all the combinations and see how many I could eliminate and get down to the plausible Mafia combinations.
First, some assumptions: ZIG (Me) = Town Rummy = Town SFA = Town Carini = Town
So removing these 4 players from the possible combinations, that brings us from 165 down to 35. That's a good start.
Next, I wanted to focus on Mike D. If Mike D is Mafia, then we get a Day 4 no matter who we lynch Day 3. If he is town and we miss lynching Mafia during Day 3, GAME OVER. So for this exercise, I want to look at worst case scenario. Basically, we have to get a Mafia today. So: Mike D = town.
This brings us down to 20 potential Mafia combinations.
I'm only going to clear 1 player based on gameplay. Thor = town.
That brings us down to 10 remaining Mafia combinations, without evening looking at voting patterns.
A few of these 10 combinations stuck out as not likely.
1. Any combination remaining with JR and LD. -LD voted for JR day 1. Additionally, JR switched his vote Day 2 to push LD into the runoff. That doesn't seem like Mafia play to me.
This killed off an additional 3 remaining scenarios, so we are down to 7.
2. Any combination of Jaz and LD remaining. -D2R2, Jaz pushes LD into the next runoff against Mike D. He had the choice of picking between Carini (town) and LD and he chose LD. If Jaz and LD were Mafia together, I don't believe Jaz would choose to send his Mafia mate forward.
Now, Jaz has been extra helpful, unlike most of the town, so I would lean toward the bottom 2 options:
JR, Monky, Tainted LD, Monky, Tainted
I found this exercise interesting because my original theory was: Mafia: LD 2 of: Mike D, Monky, Jaz, Tainted
Which aligns quite nicely with the second of my 2 final Mafia combination: LD, Monky, Tainted.
So, I voted for Tainted, because based on this analysis, voting out Monky or Tainted should give us a Day 4 and an additional whack. I chose Taint over Monky because Taint has not been in a runoff yet and only has 1 vote so far for the entire game.
Actually scratch that theory, LD put his vote on Mike D instead of ZIG before the Day 2 runoff narrowed down. Unless that was a distancing move, I don't see them two working together. I'm still suspicious of LD though so my vote will stay for right now.
And I've been suspicious of Mike since D1R1, along with Zig and Monky.
Though maybe not so much Monky now. If he and Mike were working together, he would of voted me instead of Mike in that last runoff.
Actually scratch that theory, LD put his vote on Mike D instead of ZIG before the Day 2 runoff narrowed down. Unless that was a distancing move, I don't see them two working together. I'm still suspicious of LD though so my vote will stay for right now.
And I've been suspicious of Mike since D1R1, along with Zig and Monky.
Though maybe not so much Monky now. If he and Mike were working together, he would of voted me instead of Mike in that last runoff.
So the 3 people you are suspicious of were all in the initial 5-person Day 1 runoff...come on...that makes no sense.
These combos also are on a "worst case scenario" basis - I considered Rummy and Mike D to be town even though it's possible they may not be. And look how many time Taint's name came up... I think it's important that we not just vote him off though, and since I'm still suspicious of Monky more than ZIG, I'm gonna go with Monky.
These combos also are on a "worst case scenario" basis - I considered Rummy and Mike D to be town even though it's possible they may not be. And look how many time Taint's name came up... I think it's important that we not just vote him off though, and since I'm still suspicious of Monky more than ZIG, I'm gonna go with Monky.
Jaz > LD > Monky
Dude how does this make any sense to you? You've created 6 scenarios, 5 of which implicate me. With this in mind, Monky comes up in 4 and Zig the same. "I think it's important that we not just vote him off though" - Why? You speak like you've already decided for the town that I'm mafia? I'm not. The only scenario in the 6 that you've created that is even possible is the first - I'm town guy. How does my voting pattern add up to me being mafia? I realize I've been short of a great townie this game, but being a bad townie and good mafia serve the same purpose - clouding the judgement of others. You have your mark, you used a combo calc to create any plausible scenario - yet you go w/ Monky. wtf?
I liked Jaz's thought process so I have been doing some research.
First. There are technically 165 possible Mafia combinations at the start of the game. I wanted to go thru all the combinations and see how many I could eliminate and get down to the plausible Mafia combinations.
First, some assumptions: ZIG (Me) = Town Rummy = Town SFA = Town Carini = Town
So removing these 4 players from the possible combinations, that brings us from 165 down to 35. That's a good start.
Next, I wanted to focus on Mike D. If Mike D is Mafia, then we get a Day 4 no matter who we lynch Day 3. If he is town and we miss lynching Mafia during Day 3, GAME OVER. So for this exercise, I want to look at worst case scenario. Basically, we have to get a Mafia today. So: Mike D = town.
This brings us down to 20 potential Mafia combinations.
I'm only going to clear 1 player based on gameplay. Thor = town.
That brings us down to 10 remaining Mafia combinations, without evening looking at voting patterns.
A few of these 10 combinations stuck out as not likely.
1. Any combination remaining with JR and LD. -LD voted for JR day 1. Additionally, JR switched his vote Day 2 to push LD into the runoff. That doesn't seem like Mafia play to me.
This killed off an additional 3 remaining scenarios, so we are down to 7.
2. Any combination of Jaz and LD remaining. -D2R2, Jaz pushes LD into the next runoff against Mike D. He had the choice of picking between Carini (town) and LD and he chose LD. If Jaz and LD were Mafia together, I don't believe Jaz would choose to send his Mafia mate forward.
Now, Jaz has been extra helpful, unlike most of the town, so I would lean toward the bottom 2 options:
JR, Monky, Tainted LD, Monky, Tainted
I found this exercise interesting because my original theory was: Mafia: LD 2 of: Mike D, Monky, Jaz, Tainted
Which aligns quite nicely with the second of my 2 final Mafia combination: LD, Monky, Tainted.
So, I voted for Tainted, because based on this analysis, voting out Monky or Tainted should give us a Day 4 and an additional whack. I chose Taint over Monky because Taint has not been in a runoff yet and only has 1 vote so far for the entire game.
Good call. Trusting someone because they are vocal. That makes sense.
I liked Jaz's thought process so I have been doing some research.
First. There are technically 165 possible Mafia combinations at the start of the game. I wanted to go thru all the combinations and see how many I could eliminate and get down to the plausible Mafia combinations.
First, some assumptions: ZIG (Me) = Town Rummy = Town SFA = Town Carini = Town
So removing these 4 players from the possible combinations, that brings us from 165 down to 35. That's a good start.
Next, I wanted to focus on Mike D. If Mike D is Mafia, then we get a Day 4 no matter who we lynch Day 3. If he is town and we miss lynching Mafia during Day 3, GAME OVER. So for this exercise, I want to look at worst case scenario. Basically, we have to get a Mafia today. So: Mike D = town.
This brings us down to 20 potential Mafia combinations.
I'm only going to clear 1 player based on gameplay. Thor = town.
That brings us down to 10 remaining Mafia combinations, without evening looking at voting patterns.
A few of these 10 combinations stuck out as not likely.
1. Any combination remaining with JR and LD. -LD voted for JR day 1. Additionally, JR switched his vote Day 2 to push LD into the runoff. That doesn't seem like Mafia play to me.
This killed off an additional 3 remaining scenarios, so we are down to 7.
2. Any combination of Jaz and LD remaining. -D2R2, Jaz pushes LD into the next runoff against Mike D. He had the choice of picking between Carini (town) and LD and he chose LD. If Jaz and LD were Mafia together, I don't believe Jaz would choose to send his Mafia mate forward.
Now, Jaz has been extra helpful, unlike most of the town, so I would lean toward the bottom 2 options:
JR, Monky, Tainted LD, Monky, Tainted
I found this exercise interesting because my original theory was: Mafia: LD 2 of: Mike D, Monky, Jaz, Tainted
Which aligns quite nicely with the second of my 2 final Mafia combination: LD, Monky, Tainted.
So, I voted for Tainted, because based on this analysis, voting out Monky or Tainted should give us a Day 4 and an additional whack. I chose Taint over Monky because Taint has not been in a runoff yet and only has 1 vote so far for the entire game.
Good call. Trusting someone because they are vocal. That makes sense.
Clearly you don't read very well.
My original theory from the end of day 1 includes both you and Jaz: Mafia: LD 2 of: Mike D, Monky, Jaz, Taint I still stand by that.
I've been accused of not looking at the whole game and focusing on one player (see last game) in the past, so when Jaz provided some additional detail and a different line of thinking, I ran some data independently to see what results would come up with. And they aligned extremely well with where I have been looking most of the game. I was appreciative tat someone else in the fame was actually spending time and effort in the game.
Based on how I see it, Jaz and I are the only ones that are actively contributing to the game. The rest of your are either SILENT or COMPLAINING.
As I have already said to LD and now you in this game, contribute something useful to the game, and I will look at it.
I called out the town a few days ago for not contributing ( my Shame on You post). You even responded and said you would be more focused on the game, yet you still don't contribute.
WHY BOTHER PLAYING MAFIA IF YOU DON'T ACTUALLY PLAY?
Good call. Trusting someone because they are vocal. That makes sense.
Clearly you don't read very well.
My original theory from the end of day 1 includes both you and Jaz: Mafia: LD 2 of: Mike D, Monky, Jaz, Taint I still stand by that.
I've been accused of not looking at the whole game and focusing on one player (see last game) in the past, so when Jaz provided some additional detail and a different line of thinking, I ran some data independently to see what results would come up with. And they aligned extremely well with where I have been looking most of the game. I was appreciative tat someone else in the fame was actually spending time and effort in the game.
Based on how I see it, Jaz and I are the only ones that are actively contributing to the game. The rest of your are either SILENT or COMPLAINING.
As I have already said to LD and now you in this game, contribute something useful to the game, and I will look at it.
I called out the town a few days ago for not contributing ( my Shame on You post). You even responded and said you would be more focused on the game, yet you still don't contribute.
WHY BOTHER PLAYING MAFIA IF YOU DON'T ACTUALLY PLAY?
I appreciate your stats, at least you voted to back your argument.
These combos also are on a "worst case scenario" basis - I considered Rummy and Mike D to be town even though it's possible they may not be. And look how many time Taint's name came up... I think it's important that we not just vote him off though, and since I'm still suspicious of Monky more than ZIG, I'm gonna go with Monky.
Jaz > LD > Monky
Dude how does this make any sense to you? You've created 6 scenarios, 5 of which implicate me. With this in mind, Monky comes up in 4 and Zig the same. "I think it's important that we not just vote him off though" - Why? You speak like you've already decided for the town that I'm mafia? I'm not. The only scenario in the 6 that you've created that is even possible is the first - I'm town guy. How does my voting pattern add up to me being mafia? I realize I've been short of a great townie this game, but being a bad townie and good mafia serve the same purpose - clouding the judgement of others. You have your mark, you used a combo calc to create any plausible scenario - yet you go w/ Monky. wtf?
Tainted > Jaz
Yes, because Monky is my second choice for who I think might be Mafia. Though he's even with Zig as far as the number of times he appears, there's more that factors into it here than pure odds. Gameplay factors in as well, and Monky is more suspicious to me than ZIG right now. So I could have voted for you and pushed you up to two, but I'd rather see where players put their votes when you and Monky both have a vote apiece. There's more to this game than just immediately voting for the most likely Mafia.
Hard to gather much from Carini beyond his original three theory. If I recall correctly SFA had similar feelings. But I think it's important not to discount JR simply because Carini's vote for him was predetermined.
