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And for someone who is trying to paint me as voting different than my reasoning (which isn't even that case), what reasoning do you have for voting for me other than "Waaaah, Jaz voted for me and I don't like it"?
So the 3 people you are suspicious of were all in the initial 5-person Day 1 runoff...come on...that makes no sense.
It's not all three of you together.
I thought I was the one not paying attention around here.
This is exactly my point. You find three people from the initial 5-person runoff suspicious, but you have no other thoughts? Who's most suspicious? Who's the least suspicious? If you look at the your options, since you said the 3 all aren't working together, who are they working with?
If you end up town in this game, and this is as far as your investigation skills went, then you are no help to the town.
Additionally, the last time the town won without proper Inspector gameplay was Mafia 76. That's 15 games. I'm under the assumption that the Inspector was either SFA or Carini and that we are on our own. For the town to have a chance at winning without our inspector, then we need the townies to quit complaining and contribute. And if you don't contribute, then you are part of the reason why the town always loses.
Ran the combination calculator again; I didn't rule out Thor this time because I felt like that was letting him off too easy - although I do think he's town, that's more of a feeling I'm getting than anything based on his actual votes. This is also because I can almost conclusively say that Rummy and Mike D were town, and Thor voted for each of them, even being the nail in the coffin for Rummy. Though to be fair, I voted for both townies too. So I know how a townie can be led astray, especially when I'm only looking at the final runoff - there's a 50% chance any given person would be voting for one of the two (just trying to give you fair credit here Thor). I do find it interesting that Thor hasn't garnered a vote in the game though. That's not damning, just interesting. I also for shits and gigs left in the possibilities that all three Mafia could have been in the first runoff or that no Mafia might have been in the first runoff. Anywho:
Things of note: ZIG appears 6 times JR appears 6 times LD appears 5 times Taint appears 7 times Thor appears 7 times Monky appears 4 times. My feeling, based purely on general gameplay, is that ZIG and Thor are both town. If we eliminate them, Monky is definitively Mafia. However, I don't want to rule them out just based on a feeling. Especially considering that ZIG had also ruled out Thor just based on gameplay, I fear that could have been a misdirection and the two of them could be working together, which is why I wanted to redo this. Either Thor or Taint appear in every single combination except for ZIG/JR/Mike D. This makes me think it's pretty likely that at least one of them is Mafia.
Out of the six of you playing, at least three of you are town. Regardless of whether or not it involves yourself, do you see any two-person pairs that you think I should rule out? I want to whittle this down.
How can you say Mike D was town when both SFA and Carini were voting for him? Especially without an inspector revealing this round, you gotta think one of SFA or Carini were inspector, no?
How can you say Mike D was town when both SFA and Carini were voting for him? Especially without an inspector revealing this round, you gotta think one of SFA or Carini were inspector, no?
No one has ruled out Mike D as Mafia. Basically, in the worst case scenario, Rummy and Mike D are town. Meaning, we have 7 players currently in the game, 3 Mafia 4 Town. So I'm the worst case scenario, if we don't get a Mafia this round, GAME OVER.
Jaz and I are both using this "worst case" scenario to figure out who gives us the best chance of seeing Day 4. Because if we get to Day 4, we will get to see another whack and can eliminate a ton of potential Mafia combinations.
I was just about to post a count but zola took care of it. Meanwhile, I shot my season best on the golf course.
That's awesome! Congrats! I figured while I was just sitting here doing nothing that I'd make myself useful. Hope you didn't feel like I stepped on your toes.
I was just about to post a count but zola took care of it. Meanwhile, I shot my season best on the golf course.
That's awesome! Congrats! I figured while I was just sitting here doing nothing that I'd make myself useful. Hope you didn't feel like I stepped on your toes.
Loosely ordered from least suspicious to most. Zig (town) - He's the most dedicated to finding mafia. Jaz (town) - He's also showing great effort at rooting out mafia. Thor (unknown) - I always find Thor hard to judge. Nothing he said stands out to me and his vote patterns don't seem to implicate him. Monky (unknown) - I had a pretty strong hunch that Monky was a bit shady in the last game. I looked for the usual signs in this game and wasn't finding them. However, I do feel like he's lacked a bit of content. LD (mafia) - He's playing typical reckless LD, perhaps a little extra reckless, and he's made less sense than usual. Tainted (mafia) - He mentioned being dedicated to the game after his exam, but I'm not really seeing much. It feels like a mafia move to say he's here, and he'll get involved, but doesn't. Carini also talked about Tainted wanting him dead, then Carini was whacked. I also feel a bit like his posts are generally non-commital. After ZIG and Jaz make logical scenarios, Tainted came up a lot. It's about the best thing I have to go on right now.
Based on your scenario, you can remove the one with Mike D in it. I would also probably remove any combo of Thor and JR since Thor switched his vote to JR during Day 1 to force JR into the runoff when he didn't need to.
How can you say Mike D was town when both SFA and Carini were voting for him? Especially without an inspector revealing this round, you gotta think one of SFA or Carini were inspector, no?
No one has ruled out Mike D as Mafia. Basically, in the worst case scenario, Rummy and Mike D are town. Meaning, we have 7 players currently in the game, 3 Mafia 4 Town. So I'm the worst case scenario, if we don't get a Mafia this round, GAME OVER.
Jaz and I are both using this "worst case" scenario to figure out who gives us the best chance of seeing Day 4. Because if we get to Day 4, we will get to see another whack and can eliminate a ton of potential Mafia combinations.
This is incorrect. I've almost completely ruled out Mike D as Mafia.
Potential Mike D partners:
Jaz, SFA, Carini - ruled out because they're town. Rummy - Ruled out because Mike D voted for her over JR and ZIG when it was a three-way runoff and he had an open vote in Day 1. Monky - Ruled out because Monky placed his open vote on Mike Day towards the end of Day 2. The only way this wouldn't rule him would be if the trio was Mike D/Monky/LD, but LD - Because LD moved his vote off of ZIG and onto Mike D in Day 2. Taint - Because of Taint's deciding vote at the end of Day 2. Thor - Because he opened his vote with Mike D at the beginning of Day 2 and held it there for the entire round.
I have not specifically ruled out him being Mafia with ZIG or JR, but since I've ruled out all other potential Mike D partners, that means Mike D would have had to have been Mafia with both JR and ZIG. And as you can see, I left that option open.
Based on your scenario, you can remove the one with Mike D in it. I would also probably remove any combo of Thor and JR since Thor switched his vote to JR during Day 1 to force JR into the runoff when he didn't need to.
These scenarios are nice and all, but I can't say I agree with both ZIG's and Jaz's decision to seemingly completely ignore any evaluation of the whacks.
Either way, I think the whacks point towards Monky so I'm good with my vote on him.
Hm, after looking over the game again, there is a bit of evidence for ZIG/Mike D/JR. Let me set the stage: Day 1, Runoff 1. ZIG, Rummy, Mike D, JR, and Monky all have two votes, and Rummy, ZIG, and Thor have open votes. ZIG places his vote on Rummy, because he's not going to vote for himself or his two teammates (Monky could have been his other option). Rummy and Thor nail two Mafia with their votes of ZIG and JR, respectively. Now the runoff is ZIG, Rummy, and JR, and Mike D and SFA have open votes. Mike D votes for Rummy, because ZIG and JR are both his teammates. SFA votes for ZIG. Now it's ZIG/Rummy in the runoff. LD/Carini/Thor to vote. They're all townies, but manage to miss the mark by voting off Rummy instead of ZIG - which is why JR is safe to hold his vote on ZIG.
Then SFA is whacked because he voted for Mike D to open the day, and for ZIG later on when he had an open vote. Carini is whacked night two because of his campaign for Mike D (and even though it was his pattern, he voted for JR Day 1). And now ZIG has excluded Mike D from his possible scenarios, and is encouraging me to do the same. This is all getting fishy.
Did we really have all 3 Mafia in the first runoff and let them slip through our fingers?
These scenarios are nice and all, but I can't say I agree with both ZIG's and Jaz's decision to seemingly completely ignore any evaluation of the whacks.
Either way, I think the whacks point towards Monky so I'm good with my vote on him.
Hm, after looking over the game again, there is a bit of evidence for ZIG/Mike D/JR. Let me set the stage: Day 1, Runoff 1. ZIG, Rummy, Mike D, JR, and Monky all have two votes, and Rummy, ZIG, and Thor have open votes. ZIG places his vote on Rummy, because he's not going to vote for himself or his two teammates (Monky could have been his other option). Rummy and Thor nail two Mafia with their votes of ZIG and JR, respectively. Now the runoff is ZIG, Rummy, and JR, and Mike D and SFA have open votes. Mike D votes for Rummy, because ZIG and JR are both his teammates. SFA votes for ZIG. Now it's ZIG/Rummy in the runoff. LD/Carini/Thor to vote. They're all townies, but manage to miss the mark by voting off Rummy instead of ZIG - which is why JR is safe to hold his vote on ZIG.
Then SFA is whacked because he voted for Mike D to open the day, and for ZIG later on when he had an open vote. Carini is whacked night two because of his campaign for Mike D (and even though it was his pattern, he voted for JR Day 1). And now ZIG has excluded Mike D from his possible scenarios, and is encouraging me to do the same. This is all getting fishy.
Did we really have all 3 Mafia in the first runoff and let them slip through our fingers?
This doesn't make sense. First. I pushed Mike D into the 5 person runoff when I could have chosen SFA (town). Next, I didn't have an open vote, my vote was on Mike D. I moved my vote because Rummy had moved me to 3 and I was looking at a straight vote off. My options for movement were Rummy, Monky, JR. I haven't excluded Mike D. As I have repeatedly stated, my theory is: Mafia: LD 2 of: Mike D, Minky, Tainted, Jaz. My combinations theory have excluded Mike D because I'm looking at the worst case scenario that both Rummy and Mike D are town and that we MUST kill a Mafia this round.
Hm, after looking over the game again, there is a bit of evidence for ZIG/Mike D/JR. Let me set the stage: Day 1, Runoff 1. ZIG, Rummy, Mike D, JR, and Monky all have two votes, and Rummy, ZIG, and Thor have open votes. ZIG places his vote on Rummy, because he's not going to vote for himself or his two teammates (Monky could have been his other option). Rummy and Thor nail two Mafia with their votes of ZIG and JR, respectively. Now the runoff is ZIG, Rummy, and JR, and Mike D and SFA have open votes. Mike D votes for Rummy, because ZIG and JR are both his teammates. SFA votes for ZIG. Now it's ZIG/Rummy in the runoff. LD/Carini/Thor to vote. They're all townies, but manage to miss the mark by voting off Rummy instead of ZIG - which is why JR is safe to hold his vote on ZIG.
Then SFA is whacked because he voted for Mike D to open the day, and for ZIG later on when he had an open vote. Carini is whacked night two because of his campaign for Mike D (and even though it was his pattern, he voted for JR Day 1). And now ZIG has excluded Mike D from his possible scenarios, and is encouraging me to do the same. This is all getting fishy.
Did we really have all 3 Mafia in the first runoff and let them slip through our fingers?
This doesn't make sense. First. I pushed Mike D into the 5 person runoff when I could have chosen SFA (town). Next, I didn't have an open vote, my vote was on Mike D. I moved my vote because Rummy had moved me to 3 and I was looking at a straight vote off. My options for movement were Rummy, Monky, JR. I haven't excluded Mike D. As I have repeatedly stated, my theory is: Mafia: LD 2 of: Mike D, Minky, Tainted, Jaz. My combinations theory have excluded Mike D because I'm looking at the worst case scenario that both Rummy and Mike D are town and that we MUST kill a Mafia this round.
Gotcha. I'll look back over the game to verify; Potent's vote tallies don't designate between vote switches and open votes like I'm used to so that's screwing up the way I'm reading the flow of votes.
These scenarios are nice and all, but I can't say I agree with both ZIG's and Jaz's decision to seemingly completely ignore any evaluation of the whacks.
Either way, I think the whacks point towards Monky so I'm good with my vote on him.
How do you derive Monky from the whacks?
Both Carini and SFA seemed to be interested in the first three members of the D1R1 runoff. Monky was one of them. JR was another.
Hm. Well this is interesting. LD's vote for me means that if no one moves, Monky is going to vote for either me or Tainted. If he votes for me, I'm obviously going to move to Tainted. Then the runoff will ensue and Thor will have the Day's deciding vote, unless Tainted is town, then we're fucked. Though Thor I will say that if you are indeed town, 4 of the 5 remaining scenarios involve Taint - the other one is ZIG/JR/Mike D, in which case we're fucked anyway if people don't move their votes around. ZIG's most recent post makes sense though; he pushed Mike D into the runoff in Day 1.
Questions I'd like answered: 1. Tainted, why are you voting for me? You've given no reason. 2. LD, why are you voting for me? Just to push the runoff to three with no critical thinking or reasoning whatsoever? That's a wasted vote at this point in the game. Plus it narrows down Monky's choices and therefore gives us less information. 3. Thor, why do you think the whacks point to Monky? I know I just asked you not that long ago but I figured I'd throw it in here since it is indeed a question I'd like answered.
Because I'm going to bed and don't want Monky to have to more or less force a Jaz/Taint runoff in order to save himself. If he wants to freely choose a Jaz/Taint runoff he can do so by putting someone at one vote.
