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2. LD, why are you voting for me? Just to push the runoff to three with no critical thinking or reasoning whatsoever? That's a wasted vote at this point in the game. Plus it narrows down Monky's choices and therefore gives us less information.
In hindsight, a three person runoff here doesn't make too much sense.
I'm definitely sitting out the next game or two. I can't commit to the game as much as I should be right now. I'm sorry to everyone for doing such a shit job in this one.
And for someone who is trying to paint me as voting different than my reasoning (which isn't even that case), what reasoning do you have for voting for me other than "Waaaah, Jaz voted for me and I don't like it"?
Though it was brief, I thought I already summed it up well. You, in your posts a couple pages back even up til a few posts ago, seem to have convinced yourself I'm mafia. You and Zig are bouncing off each other like 2 kids on speed, and what's truly been deduced is nothing shy of subjective. The logic ends with "they did this day 1, so they are cleared." - do you really believe in 93 games of mafia people haven't learned more clever distancing tactics? And then you see me in the overwhelming majority of these little scenarios and Zig is doing the exact same thing and while math is impressive, if stats won mafia no one would bother signing up. Your gut told you earlier in this page, Jaz, that it's fishy the way that Zigs ideas jive but only to an extent. You even felt compelled to shift gears in order to nurture that fear. You're right to do this, as it does seem like if we kill a townie this game we lose. I don't see a connection between my voting pattern and mafia activity, and if you take time to look at my voting record you'll see that I've been quiet, but I've certainly voted and not in a way that screams mafia. Again, I get that what I'm doing could be a technique to trick you. Zig, thor, whoever else gets a pass because d1r1 or that they can post stats ad nauseum, they can be using a technique too. If you kill me today, you lose a deciding townie vote and then lose another townie at night - that'll be game.
Post by potentpotables on Jun 30, 2016 6:56:28 GMT -5
An extension has been requested via PM, and since this was the initial round of Day Three, I said I would have it last 36 hours in the OP, so I'm granting the extension.
Round will end at 10pm EDT tonight, this is not a hard deadline at this time.
I know this isn't the proper time and place for what is basically a cry for help, but I feel like I owe an explanation for the fact I've been awful in this game.
Long story short, everything sucks. I'm overworked, stressed out, constantly exhausted, and just feel like quitting everything. And by everything, almost everything. I work 50+ hours a week, 35 miles away in another state. We've been running mandatory overtime for months on end, with little hope in sight. Things are going weird with the house I bought last year, and there's always some issue or two. I got problems with my family. Then there's other stuff that just keeps piling up, and I just want to break.
I want to walk away from Mafia, as it's by far the least of my worries yet taking up far more time than I can commit to. I can skim the thread a few minutes at a time here and there, but can't commit to sit down and take this seriously. But I fear that we still have all three Mafia left alive. If I quit, the game may be over. I don't want to disappoint the town and resign and they all lose because of me. Which sucks because I'm in a spot where the town needs me more than ever.
And for someone who is trying to paint me as voting different than my reasoning (which isn't even that case), what reasoning do you have for voting for me other than "Waaaah, Jaz voted for me and I don't like it"?
Though it was brief, I thought I already summed it up well. You, in your posts a couple pages back even up til a few posts ago, seem to have convinced yourself I'm mafia. You and Zig are bouncing off each other like 2 kids on speed, and what's truly been deduced is nothing shy of subjective. The logic ends with "they did this day 1, so they are cleared." - do you really believe in 93 games of mafia people haven't learned more clever distancing tactics? And then you see me in the overwhelming majority of these little scenarios and Zig is doing the exact same thing and while math is impressive, if stats won mafia no one would bother signing up. Your gut told you earlier in this page, Jaz, that it's fishy the way that Zigs ideas jive but only to an extent. You even felt compelled to shift gears in order to nurture that fear. You're right to do this, as it does seem like if we kill a townie this game we lose. I don't see a connection between my voting pattern and mafia activity, and if you take time to look at my voting record you'll see that I've been quiet, but I've certainly voted and not in a way that screams mafia. Again, I get that what I'm doing could be a technique to trick you. Zig, thor, whoever else gets a pass because d1r1 or that they can post stats ad nauseum, they can be using a technique too. If you kill me today, you lose a deciding townie vote and then lose another townie at night - that'll be game.
All this is reasoning for why you disagree with why I had voted for you. That's all well and good. But given - as you said yourself - that we will probably lose the game today if we vote out a townie, your one and only aim right now should be to vote out a Mafia. Yet you still haven't given any reason for why you actually think I might be Mafia, nor have you explored any situations involving anyone else. All you're doing is defending yourself.
Who is asking for an extension in secret, and why?
That was me. At the time LD still had his vote on me, and if Monky had opted to let Taint and I go into the runoff together, I wanted the chance to ask him why he didn't want to put his vote on LD (which I wouldn't have had if the round ended at 10). But he ended up missing that vote anyway and LD took his vote off of me so it's a moot point now.
It's disappointing, yet not surprising, to see a lot of people thinking I'm Mafia still.
Aside from Thor, pretty much everyone is a suspect in my eyes.
If I vote for Monky, does he reciprocate? If this is the case, then would he be Mafia and Mike D town? Because there's almost no way both are Mafia together. And if I vote for Monky and he reciprocates, that leaves (1) Jaz out of a runoff and (2) Taint the swing vote, once again.
We all know about the concept of the "quiet Mafia", one who sits back and says little to hide in the shadows. But what about the very loud Mafia, who basically throws so much talk and (misleading) information out there - to try and persuade the town into taking their side. At first I thought this role could have been Zig, but (1) he tends to talk a lot anyway and (2) I kinda get blinded when someone votes for me, and just want to retaliate. Kill or be killed sort of thing.
Jaz, who in the first couple days had been mostly present but not noteworthy, comes out of nowhere in Night 2 to come out with two hours of research showing "evidence" and possible Mafia trios. I find the timing of this release to be suspect. Normally in the night, wouldn't one want to be kind of quiet to avoid the Mafia spotlight? If I was Mafia, seeing a post like this would be a huge signal he's perhaps the Inspector and a good a reason to whack him. But yet Jaz lives, which leads me to believe he might be Mafia and trying to mislead the town with an overload of information and conversation. Part of my reason for voting for him was three person runoff, part this Night 2 info bomb. Maybe he is town, eagerly trying to help out. But I can't help but wonder. And of course, anyone who wants to call me Mafia I am going to suspect.
Is the town better served by a two or three person runoff here? A three person runoff could be a big power play for whoever is the seventh vote, which can help in Day 4. But that's of course, if there is a Day 4. Two person runoff is more conservative, and may or may not give as big of a clue, but may give a bigger chance for the town to live another day.
Two people I've suspected in the past are voting for Taint. Am I wrong about them, or are they targeting him?
Post by potentpotables on Jun 30, 2016 16:58:14 GMT -5
I'm about to get in the car for a 3 hour drive to Pittsburgh. I won't be able to post a tally in that time, though I will occasionally check the thread while pulling to the side of the road. I'll be able to close the round at 10 still.
If I vote Monky, Monky could turn around and vote for me to push a three person runoff. Could vote for Jaz though. That puts Taint as the swing vote, who is currently the target of two people I don't like - both of which have also called me Mafia. I have to go back and look at what Monky's thinking.
If I vote JR or Zig, both of whom I've suspected in the past, it can lead to a two person runoff. Two person runoff can be a dangerous move, as if it's two town that get stuck in the runoff - the game may be over. If Mike D was town, that means all three Mafia are still alive. Barring some fluke thing, such as Rummy somehow being Mafia.
If I vote Jaz, Monky would likely turn around and vote for me to push a three person runoff. That puts Thor as the swing vote. However, I have my suspicions of Jaz - and Jaz has a vote on me, so fuck him. Considering how many people view me as suspect anyway, it may be worth risking my own ass to cast a spotlight on Jaz. If I'm going to Hell, I'm not going alone...
It's disappointing, yet not surprising, to see a lot of people thinking I'm Mafia still.
Aside from Thor, pretty much everyone is a suspect in my eyes.
If I vote for Monky, does he reciprocate? If this is the case, then would he be Mafia and Mike D town? Because there's almost no way both are Mafia together. And if I vote for Monky and he reciprocates, that leaves (1) Jaz out of a runoff and (2) Taint the swing vote, once again.
We all know about the concept of the "quiet Mafia", one who sits back and says little to hide in the shadows. But what about the very loud Mafia, who basically throws so much talk and (misleading) information out there - to try and persuade the town into taking their side. At first I thought this role could have been Zig, but (1) he tends to talk a lot anyway and (2) I kinda get blinded when someone votes for me, and just want to retaliate. Kill or be killed sort of thing.
Jaz, who in the first couple days had been mostly present but not noteworthy, comes out of nowhere in Night 2 to come out with two hours of research showing "evidence" and possible Mafia trios. I find the timing of this release to be suspect. Normally in the night, wouldn't one want to be kind of quiet to avoid the Mafia spotlight? If I was Mafia, seeing a post like this would be a huge signal he's perhaps the Inspector and a good a reason to whack him. But yet Jaz lives, which leads me to believe he might be Mafia and trying to mislead the town with an overload of information and conversation. Part of my reason for voting for him was three person runoff, part this Night 2 info bomb. Maybe he is town, eagerly trying to help out. But I can't help but wonder. And of course, anyone who wants to call me Mafia I am going to suspect.
Is the town better served by a two or three person runoff here? A three person runoff could be a big power play for whoever is the seventh vote, which can help in Day 4. But that's of course, if there is a Day 4. Two person runoff is more conservative, and may or may not give as big of a clue, but may give a bigger chance for the town to live another day.
Two people I've suspected in the past are voting for Taint. Am I wrong about them, or are they targeting him?
Im being targeted. I still can't tell if its overly enthusiastic town or mafia trying to use my weak play against me, regardless - I'm a townie being targeted.
Thor deserves that MVP for looking like town from the beginning to the end. LD and I made it nearly impossible for the inspector to implicate both of us. This was semi-intentional, semi-reactional.
I liked Jaz's thought process so I have been doing some research.
First. There are technically 165 possible Mafia combinations at the start of the game. I wanted to go thru all the combinations and see how many I could eliminate and get down to the plausible Mafia combinations.
First, some assumptions: ZIG (Me) = Town Rummy = Town SFA = Town Carini = Town
So removing these 4 players from the possible combinations, that brings us from 165 down to 35. That's a good start.
Next, I wanted to focus on Mike D. If Mike D is Mafia, then we get a Day 4 no matter who we lynch Day 3. If he is town and we miss lynching Mafia during Day 3, GAME OVER. So for this exercise, I want to look at worst case scenario. Basically, we have to get a Mafia today. So: Mike D = town.
This brings us down to 20 potential Mafia combinations.
I'm only going to clear 1 player based on gameplay. Thor = town.
That brings us down to 10 remaining Mafia combinations, without evening looking at voting patterns.
A few of these 10 combinations stuck out as not likely.
1. Any combination remaining with JR and LD. -LD voted for JR day 1. Additionally, JR switched his vote Day 2 to push LD into the runoff. That doesn't seem like Mafia play to me.
This killed off an additional 3 remaining scenarios, so we are down to 7.
2. Any combination of Jaz and LD remaining. -D2R2, Jaz pushes LD into the next runoff against Mike D. He had the choice of picking between Carini (town) and LD and he chose LD. If Jaz and LD were Mafia together, I don't believe Jaz would choose to send his Mafia mate forward.
Now, Jaz has been extra helpful, unlike most of the town, so I would lean toward the bottom 2 options:
JR, Monky, Tainted LD, Monky, Tainted
I found this exercise interesting because my original theory was: Mafia: LD 2 of: Mike D, Monky, Jaz, Tainted
Which aligns quite nicely with the second of my 2 final Mafia combination: LD, Monky, Tainted.
So, I voted for Tainted, because based on this analysis, voting out Monky or Tainted should give us a Day 4 and an additional whack. I chose Taint over Monky because Taint has not been in a runoff yet and only has 1 vote so far for the entire game.
This killed me... Mafia nailed it. However, you had amazing research. No one tried as hard as you.
My feeling, based purely on general gameplay, is that ZIG and Thor are both town. If we eliminate them, Monky is definitively Mafia. However, I don't want to rule them out just based on a feeling. Especially considering that ZIG had also ruled out Thor just based on gameplay, I fear that could have been a misdirection and the two of them could be working together, which is why I wanted to redo this. Either Thor or Taint appear in every single combination except for ZIG/JR/Mike D. This makes me think it's pretty likely that at least one of them is Mafia.
Out of the six of you playing, at least three of you are town. Regardless of whether or not it involves yourself, do you see any two-person pairs that you think I should rule out? I want to whittle this down.
I have seriously sucked at 93. I have barely contributed anything. Honestly I'm being dead weight. I'm not saying lynch me because I want out but I've not been able to pay enough attention and keep accurate notes about the way things have shaped up up to this point. I'm sucking at 93 and I'm not doing the town any favors. I'm reading as feverishly as I can before the close of this round.
My feeling, based purely on general gameplay, is that ZIG and Thor are both town. If we eliminate them, Monky is definitively Mafia. However, I don't want to rule them out just based on a feeling. Especially considering that ZIG had also ruled out Thor just based on gameplay, I fear that could have been a misdirection and the two of them could be working together, which is why I wanted to redo this. Either Thor or Taint appear in every single combination except for ZIG/JR/Mike D. This makes me think it's pretty likely that at least one of them is Mafia.
Out of the six of you playing, at least three of you are town. Regardless of whether or not it involves yourself, do you see any two-person pairs that you think I should rule out? I want to whittle this down.
I have seriously sucked at 93. I have barely contributed anything. Honestly I'm being dead weight. I'm not saying lynch me because I want out but I've not been able to pay enough attention and keep accurate notes about the way things have shaped up up to this point. I'm sucking at 93 and I'm not doing the town any favors. I'm reading as feverishly as I can before the close of this round.
Except, ummm... how to put this... you already blew it for everyone?
