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while I have personally grown to appreciate Zig's stat hungry first round evaluations, I have to feel like it's been a little too light this round. I don't actually have a reason to be on Rummy any more than Zig, and I don't think anyone else does either. The same can be said for Zig. This seems like a preference runoff, not a good sign for townies. There have been some fairly fuzzy moves early on this game that will surely unravel the yarn later on, but for now let's not forget it's day 1.
Dont worry, if I make it to Day 2, I will have some new stats and theories for everyone.
I told JR at Bonnaroo I had some new ideas but needed to do the research first. Being mobile only takes a long time to dig thru previous games, but I've pulled together some stats from the last 20 or so games.
I'm just running some numbers and finalizing some details before I unleash new info to everyone.
As for the runoff between myself and Rummy, all I can say is that I know that I am town, and I feel that I will be useful going forward. As for Rummy, I don't know if she is Mafia or not. I do know that she is a lot less talkative so far this game than how she normally plays. I don't know if this is due to the Mafia 88/89 train wreck with Viking or because she is trying to conceal her role.
As for the runoff between myself and Rummy, all I can say is that I know that I am town, and I feel that I will be useful going forward. As for Rummy, I don't know if she is Mafia or not. I do know that she is a lot less talkative so far this game than how she normally plays. I don't know if this is due to the Mafia 88/89 train wreck with Viking or because she is trying to conceal her role.
It is the former, as I've already stated - but of course I don't expect people to take that at face value (I wouldn't either, if I were in yall's shoes). That's just how the game goes. As town, we only really know that ourselves are innocent - and in effect, we tend to be suspicious of any and all others until given reason not to be.
I don't have wifi at my mountain cabin and phone reception/3G is spotty as hell, but I'm trying my best to check in and not get behind by way of those circumstances. Going into Asheville later today, and I'll have plenty of reception there, so if I end up needing to analyze something and write up a long post, since it is coming down to the wire between me and zig, I'll try to do it then.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
I agree with Carini's analysis that ZIG being tossed into the runoff as the 5th person is kinda shady. He strikes me as a possible scapegoat stack to dilute the runoff and save some mafia. Also, Rummy is playing differently than normal. I understand she may want to change it up after the debacle with Viking but you never know.
I had given her the benefit of the doubt cause she went to Asheville, but then again we seen people recently (cough Bacon cough) hide behind vacation status as quiet Mafia.
She hadn't done anything to me that seemed suspect, enough to warrant ever being in a runoff in the first place. I don't know if Zig is Mafia, but he seems quieter with theories, was in that vote triangle with very quiet Monky and Mike D, and was in last four voters which normally he tries to avoid.
I had given her the benefit of the doubt cause she went to Asheville, but then again we seen people recently (cough Bacon cough) hide behind vacation status as quiet Mafia.
She hadn't done anything to me that seemed suspect, enough to warrant ever being in a runoff in the first place. I don't know if Zig is Mafia, but he seems quieter with theories, was in that vote triangle with very quiet Monky and Mike D, and was in last four voters which normally he tries to avoid.
As i pointed out previously in this game (and in Mafia 92), I held back my initial vote into the "last vote" in order to push another "last 4" into the runoff. On that front, I have been successful.
In Mafia 92, I pushed Bacon into the initial runoff. He quickly fell out of the runoff, IMO because you, LD, were acting sketchy as Inspector and sent suspicions your way, although we found out later that Bacon was indeed Mafia.
In this game, I again held back my vote again, and was able to get Mike D, a quiet "last 4" into the runoff, and again the town ignored him and he fell out. I don't know if Mike D is Mafia or not, but I would have liked to have seen Mike D and Monky get some day 1 exposure.
As a townsperson on D1, it is hard to produce some great convincing defense of why you shouldn't be voted off when you're in the final run off. Especially since I don't feel particularly convinced that Zig is mafia, so I feel like the town likely missed the mark with us as the final 2 for one to die on the chopping block at day's end.
People have definitely used vacation and the like as excuses when they're actually Mafia. That isn't what I'm doing. I'm really in the mountains & my service has been very spotty, and on top of that, I've been more quiet than usual - yes on purpose. Trying out some new tactics.
If I get voted off at the end of this round, it'll be a bummer, seeing as I just returned to playing and all, and was looking forward to being in a game again. But as Jaz said, someone has to be that D1 lynch. Such is life in the game of Mafia.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
As a townsperson on D1, it is hard to produce some great convincing defense of why you shouldn't be voted off when you're in the final run off. Especially since I don't feel particularly convinced that Zig is mafia, so I feel like the town likely missed the mark with us as the final 2 for one to die on the chopping block at day's end.
I think a townie gets lynched at least 90% of the time on D1, but the movement of votes can can be pretty telling through R1-R∞. . My knee jerk reaction was to vote for Zig after I realized the game had already began and I was holding things up. His name was right under mine. Unless we got lucky I think you both are probably town. Having been mafia the last 2 games I think the whack will be more telling. Being mafia, unless we had the inspector in our sight we whacked the least obvious person.
Post by monkybunney on Jun 21, 2016 17:42:54 GMT -5
What I'm trying to say is ignore who gets lynched and pay attention to who gets whacked. I thnk the people who they were the least suspicious of are proabably the people we need to focus on.
I had given her the benefit of the doubt cause she went to Asheville, but then again we seen people recently (cough Bacon cough) hide behind vacation status as quiet Mafia.
She hadn't done anything to me that seemed suspect, enough to warrant ever being in a runoff in the first place. I don't know if Zig is Mafia, but he seems quieter with theories, was in that vote triangle with very quiet Monky and Mike D, and was in last four voters which normally he tries to avoid.
As i pointed out previously in this game (and in Mafia 92), I held back my initial vote into the "last vote" in order to push another "last 4" into the runoff. On that front, I have been successful.
In Mafia 92, I pushed Bacon into the initial runoff. He quickly fell out of the runoff, IMO because you, LD, were acting sketchy as Inspector and sent suspicions your way, although we found out later that Bacon was indeed Mafia.
In this game, I again held back my vote again, and was able to get Mike D, a quiet "last 4" into the runoff, and again the town ignored him and he fell out. I don't know if Mike D is Mafia or not, but I would have liked to have seen Mike D and Monky get some day 1 exposure.
If you are town, and survive into Day 2, then perhaps we should be looking at Mike and Monky for the runoff.
If you are town, and survive into Day 2, then perhaps we should be looking at Mike and Monky for the runoff.
Why does this sound like you already know that I'm not making it to Day 2?
Well, someone could switch from Rummy to you. Or Mafia could whack you.
I don't have any inside information here, I'm just pointing out it's in the realm of possibility. I don't know how you could take what I said and see otherwise.
Post by potentpotables on Jun 22, 2016 9:03:46 GMT -5
The day is over. Rummy is dead.
Mafia send me your whack. Inspector send me your guess. See the OP for the details, but nights will run in six hour increments. Because the 18 hour limit will mean Day Two starts at 4am, I'm hoping to have this done in 12 hours (10pm EDT) at the latest.
I had to go into the office today so I can't post a ton until I'm home, but I will get back to these numbers and some of the ideas I have and why I think they are significant.
Considering you've found the need to respond to my threads as if you are threatened by me I offer you some peace my confused counterpart. May you find peace in your restless soul.
I had to go into the office today so I can't post a ton until I'm home, but I will get back to these numbers and some of the ideas I have and why I think they are significant.
Here is a new theory that I have been working on. Basically, over the last few games, I felt that we always kept commenting how Mafia seem to stay quiet during Day 1 so I decided I wanted to do some research to see if this was actually true.
So far I have gone back thru the past 20 games, and tabulated the post counts for Day 1. I felt Day 1 post counts would be the most useful because it is the only time in the game that all 11 players are playing and posting.
1. The post count leader after Day 1 is overwhelmingly town. In 18 of the past 19 games, the post count leader after Day 1 was town (19 of 20 if I include this game). Only in Mafia 74 ( kdogg ) was the post leader Mafia (and Mafia lost that game). Now I know everyone will say that I'm bringing up this stat because I am the post count leader and want to clear myself. Yes, I know I'm town and this won't satisfy people about my status. Because of that, here are my post count positions in the five games I've played.
Mafia 88 - 1st - Town Mafia 90 - 3rd - Mafia Mafia 91 - 2nd - Mafia Mafia 92 - 1st - Town Mafia 93 - 1st - Town
As you can see, when I was Mafia, even my post count during Day 1 dropped slightly.
2. Now, onto my second, and probably more useful theory. When looking at the 3 quietest players during Day 1, at least 1 Mafia was in the "quiet 3" in 17 of the last 19 games. Additionally, in 6 of those 19 games, there were actually 2 Mafia in the "quiet 3".
And I also want to point out that in the 2 games Mafia were not in the "quiet 3", in both games ( Mafia 74 reboot and Mafia 87 ) the town whacked a Mafia member Day 1 so the Mafia would have had more incentive to be active since they were in jeopardy of losing a member.
In conclusion. I believe previous game play backs up a lot of our assumptions that Mafia tend to be quiet during Day 1, and in particular more frequently occupy the "quiet 3" and should garner additional scrutiny after Day 1.
I had to go into the office today so I can't post a ton until I'm home, but I will get back to these numbers and some of the ideas I have and why I think they are significant.
Here is a new theory that I have been working on. Basically, over the last few games, I felt that we always kept commenting how Mafia seem to stay quiet during Day 1 so I decided I wanted to do some research to see if this was actually true.
So far I have gone back thru the past 20 games, and tabulated the post counts for Day 1. I felt Day 1 post counts would be the most useful because it is the only time in the game that all 11 players are playing and posting.
1. The post count leader after Day 1 is overwhelmingly town. In 18 of the past 19 games, the post count leader after Day 1 was town (19 of 20 if I include this game). Only in Mafia 74 ( kdogg ) was the post leader Mafia (and Mafia lost that game). Now I know everyone will say that I'm bringing up this stat because I am the post count leader and want to clear myself. Yes, I know I'm town and this won't satisfy people about my status. Because of that, here are my post count positions in the five games I've played.
Mafia 88 - 1st - Town Mafia 90 - 3rd - Mafia Mafia 91 - 2nd - Mafia Mafia 92 - 1st - Town Mafia 93 - 1st - Town
As you can see, when I was Mafia, even my post count during Day 1 dropped slightly.
2. Now, onto my second, and probably more useful theory. When looking at the 3 quietest players during Day 1, at least 1 Mafia was in the "quiet 3" in 17 of the last 19 games. Additionally, in 6 of those 19 games, there were actually 2 Mafia in the "quiet 3".
And I also want to point out that in the 2 games Mafia were not in the "quiet 3", in both games ( Mafia 74 reboot and Mafia 87 ) the town whacked a Mafia member Day 1 so the Mafia would have had more incentive to be active since they were in jeopardy of losing a member.
In conclusion. I believe previous game play backs up a lot of our assumptions that Mafia tend to be quiet during Day 1, and in particular more frequently occupy the "quiet 3" and should garner additional scrutiny after Day 1.
This game's "quiet 3": Carini Mike D Tainted
This is pretty typical. It makes sense for the first round mafia not to post much when things are going their way. So yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if at least one mafia member is in this group. I mean the odds favor it anyway.
You could have also pointed out that these three are the ones that helped shape the Round 1 runoff by putting second votes on Rummy, JR and Monky. That's not damning in and of itself. Townies gotta vote and create runoffs after all. But when you combine it with their quietness it's not hard to suspect that at least one of them had an agenda.
Having said all this, I'd caution against going on a witchhunt and potentially wasting the early rounds solely on this. I've seen and been a member of mafias that use these early theories to lead the townies into a hole... where suddenly it's round 4 and the townies have zero info the go off of because they were so blindly focused on a small group of suspects.
Post by potentpotables on Jun 22, 2016 20:58:04 GMT -5
My eyes are barely open so I don't have the energy to write a story. Not Prince's finest hairstyle, but the red suit is on point. And the song is jammin obviously.
