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SFA was pretty weird last round. He voted for zig a lot but kept saying he thinks zig is least suspicious. His other vote went on Mike D. I don't have wifi right now so I'll wait until someone else puts up all of SFAs posts but for now
Zig is the least suspicious to me at the moment. That means little in the long term but I tend to always point out who has been hanging out on a limb by themselves for awhile. At this point we've had one vote in 50 hours. With 5 people in the runoff, I think it's telling that things are this quite and nobody has made a move to even up the runoff. I think we do have at least one mafia in this runoff and odds are they are hanging back trying to slip by without drawing attention to themselves, possibly hoping they can squeak out of a runoff with some luck.
The other possibility is he's mafia and his buddies are relaying on a townie to even things up for a runoff. The overall quiteness makes me think that's less likely here but who knows.
Having said that, there is a benefit to having Zig in the runoff. All his votes are from other runoff people. At least we will be forcing more votes that can't hide behind "self-preservation." That should be helpful later.
Is there a specific reason you want to keep your vote on Mike D over Rimmy, Monky, or JR? Even if you have no basis to vote affirmatively for either of those 3, wouldn't it be better to keep a potentially good townie in the game?
No. I'm willing to change my vote. One reason I voted for Mike is because I figured past experience would help me decide if I needed to change or not. The game has been a little quite, so I'm not really going off much at the moment. On the flip side, one reason I'm staying is I'm voting along with someone that has a key factor pointing to them possibly being innocent.
I'm not sure on JR. I found Rummy taking so long to vote a little out of character for her but it was a Friday night. Monky making it a 5 person runoff was also a little bizzarr but I'm not positive there was a mafia angle... unless we had two mafia already in the runoff.
I do weight in if I think a player will help the town down the line but I try not to have that be the only reason.
I just fail to see what Rummy has done in this game to put herself in a runoff. As far as can tell, this is retaliation for her situation in M88.
Maybe by Tainted but I'm pretty sure he was just being snarky? I don't think anyone really blames her for what happened in that game. At least I've never gotten that impression.
Ugggg. This sucks. I want to vote for JR as I feel he's getting the least attention out of the three but we'd likely get better info out of a Zig/Rummy runoff. Just settling in. Going to read back over this.
I still hold that the flow of the game points to Zig being the least suspicious but if we are going to have another runoff this one has a lot more potential than essentially letting Monky decide. That's especially true early on when we have so little to go off of.
Nah, I'm not offended by it/taking it personally. I said it is disappointing because, yeah, no one likes to be in the final run off D1. That's just a fact. But as you said, reasons D1 are typically bullshit (e.g. the townspeople just vote for whoever, with no context/knowledge whatsoever; and the Mafia will try to blend in by ostensibly doing that exact same thing). I simply found it interesting that in previous games, my talkativeness was reason to cast suspicion upon me and send me into the run off, whereas this game SFA used the counter argument - but really, that simply proves what you just said about D1 reasons being predominantly BS (of course there are exceptions when people actually do something really sketchy).
The main BS here is you bringing up what I've said as reason you got in the runoff. First, I never said anything about you being less talkative, I said the game was quite overall. As to you, I said it was strange you took so long to vote in D1R2 but also mentioned that it was a Friday night. I made that statement after you were already in the runoff and it was in response to why I was keeping my vote on Mike D as opposed to switching to you, JR or Monky.
One out of three of your voters mentioned your level of participation when they voted for you. How you, or why, you are spinning this into me making an argument about your quiteness is beyond me.
Here is a new theory that I have been working on. Basically, over the last few games, I felt that we always kept commenting how Mafia seem to stay quiet during Day 1 so I decided I wanted to do some research to see if this was actually true.
So far I have gone back thru the past 20 games, and tabulated the post counts for Day 1. I felt Day 1 post counts would be the most useful because it is the only time in the game that all 11 players are playing and posting.
1. The post count leader after Day 1 is overwhelmingly town. In 18 of the past 19 games, the post count leader after Day 1 was town (19 of 20 if I include this game). Only in Mafia 74 ( kdogg ) was the post leader Mafia (and Mafia lost that game). Now I know everyone will say that I'm bringing up this stat because I am the post count leader and want to clear myself. Yes, I know I'm town and this won't satisfy people about my status. Because of that, here are my post count positions in the five games I've played.
Mafia 88 - 1st - Town Mafia 90 - 3rd - Mafia Mafia 91 - 2nd - Mafia Mafia 92 - 1st - Town Mafia 93 - 1st - Town
As you can see, when I was Mafia, even my post count during Day 1 dropped slightly.
2. Now, onto my second, and probably more useful theory. When looking at the 3 quietest players during Day 1, at least 1 Mafia was in the "quiet 3" in 17 of the last 19 games. Additionally, in 6 of those 19 games, there were actually 2 Mafia in the "quiet 3".
And I also want to point out that in the 2 games Mafia were not in the "quiet 3", in both games ( Mafia 74 reboot and Mafia 87 ) the town whacked a Mafia member Day 1 so the Mafia would have had more incentive to be active since they were in jeopardy of losing a member.
In conclusion. I believe previous game play backs up a lot of our assumptions that Mafia tend to be quiet during Day 1, and in particular more frequently occupy the "quiet 3" and should garner additional scrutiny after Day 1.
This game's "quiet 3": Carini Mike D Tainted
This is pretty typical. It makes sense for the first round mafia not to post much when things are going their way. So yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if at least one mafia member is in this group. I mean the odds favor it anyway.
You could have also pointed out that these three are the ones that helped shape the Round 1 runoff by putting second votes on Rummy, JR and Monky. That's not damning in and of itself. Townies gotta vote and create runoffs after all. But when you combine it with their quietness it's not hard to suspect that at least one of them had an agenda.
Having said all this, I'd caution against going on a witchhunt and potentially wasting the early rounds solely on this. I've seen and been a member of mafias that use these early theories to lead the townies into a hole... where suddenly it's round 4 and the townies have zero info the go off of because they were so blindly focused on a small group of suspects.
If you are town, and survive into Day 2, then perhaps we should be looking at Mike and Monky for the runoff.
I find it interesting / suspicious that LD would tell me we should focus on Mike D and Monky, then come out and vote for JR again?
It makes no sense, especially with the first vote on Day 2 already going to Mike D.
I like voting for JR, what can I say?
I was kind of hoping (expecting) someone else to jump on Monky. So that's why I voted JR. If I have to push Monky into the runoff, then I have no problem doing that.
Post by Tainted Opossum on Jun 23, 2016 10:06:58 GMT -5
I'm in the belief that this was one of the less beneficial day 1s. While rummy could very well have been mafia, there were a few that dodged the bullet- myself included. I have been especially silent, in honor of attempting a different players failed tactic in order to see if I may draw similar heat. It hasn't yet occured, making me feel like mafia is pushing a false narrative in a different direction or remaining incredibly uninvolved. Will read through later.
The mafia kill seems to point at myself, Zig and JR because SFA was more vocal about us seeing how we were in the runoff. He also cautioned about having the same group in the runoff round after round and I do share his opinion on this, I have seen way too many games where the same folks were in there round after round which leads to an easy mafia win. Considering SFA agreed with and elaborated on Zig's post of the quiet three that's where I am going to start this round, the two he mentioned (besides me) were Carini and Taint. In my opinion we should have a runoff with one of them, one of me/zig/JR and one other person that hasn't been mentioned much or voted for Jaz/Thor/LD.
Something doesn't sit right with me about SFA's post wanting to vote JR, but not doing so because he thinks more discussion will happen with Zig/Rummy. I wouldn't be opposed to seeing JR in there again this round against some other folks that weren't in there last round, but wel see where the rest of the votes fall this round. For now I am going to take a shot at one of the others SFA elaborated on from Zig's post
I'm in the belief that this was one of the less beneficial day 1s. While rummy could very well have been mafia, there were a few that dodged the bullet- myself included. I have been especially silent, in honor of attempting a different players failed tactic in order to see if I may draw similar heat. It hasn't yet occured, making me feel like mafia is pushing a false narrative in a different direction or remaining incredibly uninvolved. Will read through later.
I still believe that there is mafia in our original 3, poss more then 1 in our original runoff of 5. SFA didn't want to move his vote off Mike and he wasn't as strongly after the others verbally in his posts. JR is also an interesting choice as he was also in the original 3 and SFA did mention wanting to vote for him,
You can feel free to continue wasting mine and everyone else's time by voting for me, or you can actually pursue Mafia like I am.
Yeah, I did say we should pursue Mike D and Monky. And then I voted for JR, again. SFA, who was whacked, mentioned he wanted to vote for JR at one point. I decided to pursue that lead. That doesn't mean I'm locking myself in. I'm more than comfortable in switching to Monky later on.
If I was Mafia, there's no way my two other partners would be ok with me being this aggressive and out-of-control.
Along the lines Mike D just went on, the whack can point at several people. Mafia may have had a hunch that SFA was inspector or they may have killed him because whacking him would put us on a bunch of different trails. I had originally planned to come into this round and vote for Monky or Mike D to get them talking. Since Mike D is active, and stacked, I'm going to turn to Monky for now.
Maybe I was on to something, but looking at it the wrong way.
I did see something off between Mike, Monky, and Zig - at the end of R1D1. I did notice Zig was acting a little weirder in this game than previous outings. But maybe I focused more on the quiet ones rather than the elephant in the room.
Is Zig Mafia? Is he covering for either Mike or Monky?
Here are some expanded thoughts that I have so far.
Rummy: I stewed over Rummy's status for a bit since her death. Since there was so little activity Day 1 leading up to her death, I think she was town. If she was Mafia, I feel like there would have been more vote switching and activity to try to keep her alive. I even ran a few scenarios with Rummy as Mafia, but wasn't able to find a plausible scenario that made much sense.
SFA: Clearly not Mafia since he was the Night 1 whack. I think with the lack of activity so far in this game, this whack made sense to me. SFA is typically an active player, has played a lot of games, and there wasn't a lot of information on many of the players to get a good read on everyone. Additionally, I will get to Day 1 voting pairs later, but SFA was my voting pair, so I believe this is also an attempt to throw some suspicion my way.
ZIG (me): I know I'm town.
This is how Day 1 voting ended:
Monky - 2 (Thor, Mike D) Mike D - 2 (SFA, ZIG) ZIG - 2 (JR, Monky) Rummy - 2 (Jaz, Taint) JR - 2 (LD, Carini) SFA - 1 (Rummy)
I pointed out the voting structure back in D1R2 after Rummy placed her vote onto me. Here is that post.
ZIG - 3 (JR, Monky, Rummy) Mike D - 2 (SFA, ZIG) Rummy - 2 (Jaz, Taint) Monky - 2 (Thor, Mike D) JR - 2 (LD, Carini)
Since a 5 person runoff is really rare, I think these voting groups will be important to come back to in future rounds.
When I made this post, my feeling was that the 3 Mafia members had all placed their votes on separate players during D1R1 and they probably had just 1 player in the runoff. Additionally, Rummy votes for me, and then I move my vote to her, effectively pushing 2 townspeople into the next runoff. This would have allowed the Mafia to sit back. So they did. Thor, not liking the current ZIG / Rummy option, switches his vote and pushed JR into the runoff here:
Something about a 5 person runoff to a 2 person runoff doesn't feel right to me, so I'm bumping it up to 3. Things are way too quiet. We might be missing the boat with zig and rummy.
Unknowingly, Thor pushes a third townie, JR into the runoff. Now the Mafia are sitting pretty, no one in the runoff, and no reason to ruffle feathers.
I promise I will get back to the voting pairs, but first LD.
I got a weird vibe from LD pretty early on in the game. I poked at him a couple times but didn't want to jump on him too hard, because I wanted to watch his play. Throughout the game I noticed that is posts had a slightly different vibe to them. In my post count research, I read through 19 games. Reading LD's posts gave me a similar feeling to when LD was Mafia in Mafia 83. Dexter Jr was a reference from that game, hence I made the Dexter JR reference here:
Additionally, looking back at the Day 1 initial voting, I thought LD's vote was a little strange. We all know Carini's vote is pre-determined, and for this game it was JR. So I thought it was interesting that LD held his vote to 7th (1 position outside of the "last 4" and avoid that suspicion) but then voted for JR, knowing Carini was yet to vote but would stack JR into the runoff.
If LD was Mafia, this would mean JR and Carini are probably town.
So I went back to the final D1R1 votes. Like I said, I felt that the Mafia were probably all split with no duplicate votes. I wanted to start crossing people off and making guesses on their status.
Monky - 2 (Thor-town, Mike D) Mike D - 2 (SFA-town, ZIG-town) ZIG - 2 (JR-town, Monky) Rummy - 2 (Jaz, Taint) JR - 2 (LD-Mafia, Carini-town) SFA - 1 (Rummy - town)
So you can see, based on the assumption that LD is Mafia, adding in the SFA whack, dropped me down to looking at 3 of the pairs instead of 5. This is how I arrived at the 4 players I don't know much about.
If I'm right so far, In this scenario, Mafia would be: LD and 2 of the following: Mike D, Monky, Jaz, Taint
Mike D makes a compelling case because he was a "last 4" voter as well as in the "quiet 3"
As for Monky, Jaz, and Taint, there isn't much to go on so far, but I would welcome feedback or questions about this theory.
So you can see, based on the assumption that LD is Mafia, adding in the SFA whack, dropped me down to looking at 3 of the pairs instead of 5. This is how I arrived at the 4 players I don't know much about.
If I'm right so far, In this scenario, Mafia would be: LD and 2 of the following: Mike D, Monky, Jaz, Taint
Mike D makes a compelling case because he was a "last 4" voter as well as in the "quiet 3"
As for Monky, Jaz, and Taint, there isn't much to go on so far, but I would welcome feedback or questions about this theory.
Let's take your theory into consideration for a minute here.
If I'm Mafia, why would I be naming Monky and Mike D as potential Mafia - if they're on the same team as me. Wouldn't they be leaning town, and Jaz and Taint more likely Mafia?
So you can see, based on the assumption that LD is Mafia, adding in the SFA whack, dropped me down to looking at 3 of the pairs instead of 5. This is how I arrived at the 4 players I don't know much about.
If I'm right so far, In this scenario, Mafia would be: LD and 2 of the following: Mike D, Monky, Jaz, Taint
Mike D makes a compelling case because he was a "last 4" voter as well as in the "quiet 3"
As for Monky, Jaz, and Taint, there isn't much to go on so far, but I would welcome feedback or questions about this theory.
Let's take your theory into consideration for a minute here.
If I'm Mafia, why would I be naming Monky and Mike D as potential Mafia - if they're on the same team as me. Wouldn't they be leaning town, and Jaz and Taint more likely Mafia?
Yet, you keep voting for JR. It makes no sense. Put a vote onto one of those 4 that I find suspicious...
I got a weird vibe from LD pretty early on in the game. I poked at him a couple times but didn't want to jump on him too hard, because I wanted to watch his play. Throughout the game I noticed that is posts had a slightly different vibe to them. In my post count research, I read through 19 games. Reading LD's posts gave me a similar feeling to when LD was Mafia in Mafia 83. Dexter Jr was a reference from that game, hence I made the Dexter JR reference here:
Additionally, looking back at the Day 1 initial voting, I thought LD's vote was a little strange. We all know Carini's vote is pre-determined, and for this game it was JR. So I thought it was interesting that LD held his vote to 7th (1 position outside of the "last 4" and avoid that suspicion) but then voted for JR, knowing Carini was yet to vote but would stack JR into the runoff.
I don't usually go looking back at past games, or keeping track of who was (doing) what in previous games. Maybe I should, considering some of you have freaking databases on the last two years of Mafia. Or no lives.
So I went back to look at Mafia 83, from last September. I mention we need more women in Mafia, I talk a gang of shit, and SFA gets whacked night one. I do the first two a bunch of times, and the SFA thing is just coincidence. #FOH
I've been unwell lately and haven't been online much, but after a quick post-whack read through has me wondering why people are immediately voting for people who were already in the runoff. I need to read through everything again and see an updated tally before voting, but I'd like to see some new faces in the runoff. As far as previous faces go, I think Mike D is a good choice.
I came into today thinking ZIG was probably town, but may have been playing clever mafia. After a reread, I think he makes too much sense to really think it's likely that he's mafia at this point. I also came into today thinking LD was just typical LD, but he seems even more erratic than usual and his theories and defenses seem pretty weak. As much as I want to hear more from Monky, I think LD belongs in a runoff.
