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Post by monkybunney on Jun 24, 2016 0:24:47 GMT -5
FUck it this is going to take forever I'm putting Carini in the runoff based on mafia possibly suspecting SFA was inspector. This is quote made me suspicious.
Here is a new theory that I have been working on. Basically, over the last few games, I felt that we always kept commenting how Mafia seem to stay quiet during Day 1 so I decided I wanted to do some research to see if this was actually true.
So far I have gone back thru the past 20 games, and tabulated the post counts for Day 1. I felt Day 1 post counts would be the most useful because it is the only time in the game that all 11 players are playing and posting.
1. The post count leader after Day 1 is overwhelmingly town. In 18 of the past 19 games, the post count leader after Day 1 was town (19 of 20 if I include this game). Only in Mafia 74 ( kdogg ) was the post leader Mafia (and Mafia lost that game). Now I know everyone will say that I'm bringing up this stat because I am the post count leader and want to clear myself. Yes, I know I'm town and this won't satisfy people about my status. Because of that, here are my post count positions in the five games I've played.
Mafia 88 - 1st - Town Mafia 90 - 3rd - Mafia Mafia 91 - 2nd - Mafia Mafia 92 - 1st - Town Mafia 93 - 1st - Town
As you can see, when I was Mafia, even my post count during Day 1 dropped slightly.
2. Now, onto my second, and probably more useful theory. When looking at the 3 quietest players during Day 1, at least 1 Mafia was in the "quiet 3" in 17 of the last 19 games. Additionally, in 6 of those 19 games, there were actually 2 Mafia in the "quiet 3".
And I also want to point out that in the 2 games Mafia were not in the "quiet 3", in both games ( Mafia 74 reboot and Mafia 87 ) the town whacked a Mafia member Day 1 so the Mafia would have had more incentive to be active since they were in jeopardy of losing a member.
In conclusion. I believe previous game play backs up a lot of our assumptions that Mafia tend to be quiet during Day 1, and in particular more frequently occupy the "quiet 3" and should garner additional scrutiny after Day 1.
This game's "quiet 3": Carini Mike D Tainted
This is pretty typical. It makes sense for the first round mafia not to post much when things are going their way. So yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if at least one mafia member is in this group. I mean the odds favor it anyway.
You could have also pointed out that these three are the ones that helped shape the Round 1 runoff by putting second votes on Rummy, JR and Monky. That's not damning in and of itself. Townies gotta vote and create runoffs after all. But when you combine it with their quietness it's not hard to suspect that at least one of them had an agenda.
Having said all this, I'd caution against going on a witchhunt and potentially wasting the early rounds solely on this. I've seen and been a member of mafias that use these early theories to lead the townies into a hole... where suddenly it's round 4 and the townies have zero info the go off of because they were so blindly focused on a small group of suspects.
I'm less suspicious of Mike D. This is a hasty post and I'm sorry for doing this so close to the cutoff. He was SFA'a first vote. And I see jazz has already stole my move by voting for Carini. Because were so close to a cutoff and it doesn't seem fair to deny the town a run off I'm throwing away my vote. I am suspicious of Taint & Carini.
I think out of the three we have, JR and Rummy are the most likely to be mafia. Considering that Zig added me as a 4th to the first runoff, then Monky added Zig as a 5th, the only reason Monky would add someone is if there was already 1 or 2 mafia and the expanded runoff would add more chances to get the mafia through the round. If that was the case, he wouldn't want to add another. Granted this is from somewhat of a Monky being mafia perspective and I have no real idea if that is the case, but from the games I have played a 5 person runoff is a bit much.
This round is currently scheduled to end at 10am EDT on Friday, June 17.
In less than 8 hours on a Thursday night/Friday morning the round was going to close. I could have stacked to someone who I'd have no idea if they were mafia or not and possibly kill them before anyone else could vote, OR I could throw my vote away on someone who wouldn't be in the runoff (that would have been the safe thing to do), OR I could add another person to the runoff and see how the votes slid around in R2. I choose the last option. Turns out they really didn't slide around at all. I had NO CLUE that the person I'd voted for would go all the way to D1R3 with 2 other people and move on to D1R4 facing a lynching against the last, Rummy. I picked a name, I picked it for a reason (more people in a runoff should have generated more movement) I stuck to it.
I find it interesting that LD was so talkative in this game, but since I called him out yesterday, he's stopped talking.
So, I will be keeping my vote on LD.
Eh, I been more interested in the whole Brexit madness.
Guys i just got out of my nmls exam- I passed! Third attempt out of three possible, 80%, I am on cloud 9!!! This has consumed my mind heart and life for months and it is finally done
Eh, I been more interested in the whole Brexit madness.
Guys i just got out of my nmls exam- I passed! Third attempt out of three possible, 80%, I am on cloud 9!!! This has consumed my mind heart and life for months and it is finally done
Post by Tainted Opossum on Jun 24, 2016 11:35:48 GMT -5
Okay, my mind will be completely dedicated to my beloved town moving forward. The business is concluded, I'm no longer distracted, let's do this. As far as why I put zig in, I can't sincerely say if it's more suspicion of him or desired additional exchange caused by extra round in runoff - they are both valid. I can certainly say that voting for no one then sitting back and waiting wouldn't be my move, and making my vote meaningless by voting for someone who wouldn't be voted in isn't my move either. Zig threw up a lot to start this round, surprised I'm the deciding vote to put him in.
This runoff really bothers me. 2 extremely silent players (Mike D and Monky) easily slip out of the runoff. And minus a couple players, the majority of the group has been MIA. It makes me feel like the Mafia is satisfied with how the runoff went down.
I'm looking back over the game, and this stood out to me. You were the one who put Mike D into the runoff, and then you were the one who took him out. And then later you say that he "slipped out of the runoff", even though you're damn near directly responsible for that. That all doesn't really add up to me.
This runoff really bothers me. 2 extremely silent players (Mike D and Monky) easily slip out of the runoff. And minus a couple players, the majority of the group has been MIA. It makes me feel like the Mafia is satisfied with how the runoff went down.
I'm looking back over the game, and this stood out to me. You were the one who put Mike D into the runoff, and then you were the one who took him out. And then later you say that he "slipped out of the runoff", even though you're damn near directly responsible for that. That all doesn't really add up to me.
Really?? Maybe it's because I was the only one in the runoff with 3 votes and looking at getting voted off. There was virtually no activity or discussion in the game at that time so I moved my vote to ensure that I didn't get killed.
I'm looking back over the game, and this stood out to me. You were the one who put Mike D into the runoff, and then you were the one who took him out. And then later you say that he "slipped out of the runoff", even though you're damn near directly responsible for that. That all doesn't really add up to me.
Really?? Maybe it's because I was the only one in the runoff with 3 votes and looking at getting voted off. There was virtually no activity or discussion in the game at that time so I moved my vote to ensure that I didn't get killed.
I didn't say I was looking back over the game closely.
Actually after finishing my reread I'm leaning towards you being town.
To continue with my "randomly grouping people together for little reason" theory: we know that SFA was town, so we can divide the game into runoff and non-runoff people without him in it.
ZIG/Rummy/JR/Mike D/Monky Thor/LD/Carini/Taint
Yes, I know I'm leaving myself out of this. For the townies following along, just put my name in and take your own name out. Now, as the runoff progressed, Mike D and Monky fell out. This was due to Zig moving off of Mike D, and Mike D moving off of Monky. LD mentioned that he thought something was off about this triangle of votes, and then later said that Zig was trying to cover for Mike and/or Monky, but that would mean that we got all three Mafia in the first runoff, which I really don't think was the case. I do, however, find it interesting that the two people added to the runoff at the end of Round 1 were the two people taken out of it. I accept Zig's reasoning for doing so - and something similar to Mike D could apply as well - but from a larger scope of the game it kinda looks like votes were just being moved around for no reason, and that might have all been a distraction or waste of time. In either regard, if we assume that there was a Mafia in our group of 5 in the runoff, we know the Mafia would be trying hard to get them to slip out of the runoff. So I think Mike D and Monky require more scrutiny simply for not going forward.
At this point I had advocated for a ZIG/Rummy runoff, but in light of the SFA whack I think Rummy/JR would have been a better option. It seemed like SFA was interested in JR, but I understand him wanting to vote for ZIG - SFA often takes the route of voting to get the most information, so that very much fits in line with his MO.
Thor, Taint, and Carini are still hard for me to get a read on right now. They pretty much seem to be playing as usual. It's hard for me to get a read on LD right now as well, but I have a slight preference for him being in the runoff, especially because his vote is on ZIG, who I am leaning towards being town. (It's just a lean though, so don't get comfortable, buddy!)
It's also interesting that we have a Mike D/Carini voting pair in this runoff, as well as a Zig/LD voting pair. I'm interested in seeing where Monky places his vote.
I just reread this post and have concluded that it's not really helpful. Oh well. Just take it as a snapshot into what I'm looking at.
Yes, I know I'm leaving myself out of this. For the townies following along, just put my name in and take your own name out. Now, as the runoff progressed, Mike D and Monky fell out. This was due to Zig moving off of Mike D, and Mike D moving off of Monky. LD mentioned that he thought something was off about this triangle of votes, and then later said that Zig was trying to cover for Mike and/or Monky, but that would mean that we got all three Mafia in the first runoff, which I really don't think was the case. I do, however, find it interesting that the two people added to the runoff at the end of Round 1 were the two people taken out of it. I accept Zig's reasoning for doing so - and something similar to Mike D could apply as well - but from a larger scope of the game it kinda looks like votes were just being moved around for no reason, and that might have all been a distraction or waste of time. In either regard, if we assume that there was a Mafia in our group of 5 in the runoff, we know the Mafia would be trying hard to get them to slip out of the runoff. So I think Mike D and Monky require more scrutiny simply for not going forward.
1. Mike D didn't move off Monky. The round ended and he was the only one still voting for Monky so he was forced to revote.
2. The last 2 added to the runoff were Mike D and ZIG, not Mike D and Monky.
3. I also don't understand where you talk about "votes being moved around". Not counting forced revotes, there were only 2 total vote switches in the entire Day 1. My vote switch to Rummy to ensure a runoff, and Thor switching from switching from Monky to JR to push to a 3-way runoff. I don't think 2 unforced vote changes really is "votes being moved around" compared to most games.
Oh I will be looking into this. First they spelled it wrong. Also I've been MB since before hotmail was a thing. Also my joints hurt. Thank you for bringing this to my attention though it probably could have gone in Random Thoughts.
Based on my current theory, this was my suspicion list: MAFIA LD 2 of: Mike D, Taint, Jaz, Monky
Since I believe that Rummy was town then I believe the final runoff was between two townies. I think this is important because in this situation, I don't believe Mafia would have all voted for either Rummy or myself. That would mean Mafia were split 2-1.
If the 1-2 spilt was 1 on Rummy, 2 on me, then I would think it would be: LD 2 of: Jaz, Taint, Mike D
If the spilt was the other way: LD Monky 1 of: Jaz Taint, Mike D
Yes, I know I'm leaving myself out of this. For the townies following along, just put my name in and take your own name out. Now, as the runoff progressed, Mike D and Monky fell out. This was due to Zig moving off of Mike D, and Mike D moving off of Monky. LD mentioned that he thought something was off about this triangle of votes, and then later said that Zig was trying to cover for Mike and/or Monky, but that would mean that we got all three Mafia in the first runoff, which I really don't think was the case. I do, however, find it interesting that the two people added to the runoff at the end of Round 1 were the two people taken out of it. I accept Zig's reasoning for doing so - and something similar to Mike D could apply as well - but from a larger scope of the game it kinda looks like votes were just being moved around for no reason, and that might have all been a distraction or waste of time. In either regard, if we assume that there was a Mafia in our group of 5 in the runoff, we know the Mafia would be trying hard to get them to slip out of the runoff. So I think Mike D and Monky require more scrutiny simply for not going forward.
1. Mike D didn't move off Monky. The round ended and he was the only one still voting for Monky so he was forced to revote.
2. The last 2 added to the runoff were Mike D and ZIG, not Mike D and Monky.
3. I also don't understand where you talk about "votes being moved around". Not counting forced revotes, there were only 2 total vote switches in the entire Day 1. My vote switch to Rummy to ensure a runoff, and Thor switching from switching from Monky to JR to push to a 3-way runoff. I don't think 2 unforced vote changes really is "votes being moved around" compared to most games.
1. I stand corrected. I was just looking at the vote tallies, which don't indicate the difference between vote switches/fresh votes like I'm used to.
2. I confused you with Monky. =/ In light of that, I feel like my explanation for your third point would be superfluous, since I was wrong and it no longer applies. I just meant that (I thought) I saw two people thrown into the runoff just to be taken right out in the next round. Obviously I was wrong about that.
