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Just putting out there that I haven't seen much reason to change my vote right now. I have a busy day ahead of me, but I'll re read the thread tomorrow morning while I'm being driven to my gf's grandpas 80th bday party and I'll post my thoughts
I find it interesting that I have stated that I believe the Mafia to be LD and 2 of Mike D, Jaz, Monky, and Taint...and Mike D, Monky, and Jaz are all voting for Carini, and then Taint tried to vote for Carini but then moved to me where LD had already placed his vote.
I find it interesting that I have stated that I believe the Mafia to be LD and 2 of Mike D, Jaz, Monky, and Taint...and Mike D, Monky, and Jaz are all voting for Carini, and then Taint tried to vote for Carini but then moved to me where LD had already placed his vote.
People love to incorrectly vote for me. Happens every time I'm town
I find it interesting that I have stated that I believe the Mafia to be LD and 2 of Mike D, Jaz, Monky, and Taint...and Mike D, Monky, and Jaz are all voting for Carini, and then Taint tried to vote for Carini but then moved to me where LD had already placed his vote.
Except I'm not Mafia, so I'm not in cahoots with anyone. I find you remarkably suspicious and believe you're trying to frame me. Are you trying to get rid of all the experienced townies?
I find it interesting that I have stated that I believe the Mafia to be LD and 2 of Mike D, Jaz, Monky, and Taint...and Mike D, Monky, and Jaz are all voting for Carini, and then Taint tried to vote for Carini but then moved to me where LD had already placed his vote.
Except I'm not Mafia, so I'm not in cahoots with anyone. I find you remarkably suspicious and believe you're trying to frame me. Are you trying to get rid of all the experienced townies?
What have I done that you consider suspicious? I laid out a theory. My theory implicates you and several others. None of the players in the game have really addressed the details of my theory. I want to create activity and discussions in this game and would welcome people looking at my thoughts more closely.
LD, tell me why my theory doesn't make sense other than "I'm not Mafia" or better yet, put out a theory of your own.
I'm keeping my vote on Mike D. He's implicated by the whack and he's providing zero help to the town. I don't agree with notion of a straight vote off, but I'm not going to be forced into removing my preferred runoff candidate every round for the sake of keeping a runoff. Someone else can do that this round
Why does Carini even have 3 votes? I haven't heard any reasoning why people believe him to be suspicious?
I moved my vote in this previous situation during Day 1 so I will not be moving my vote off LD this round as I find him the post suspicious.
I'm here because you brought up post count and SFA commented on it and mafia is using it to frame me.
Day 1 you wanted Mike D to advance in runoff, what changed in that regard?
I don't think anyone currently voting for you right now has brought any reasoning.
I explained my reasoning for moving off Mike D on Day 1 (force a runoff so I didn't die). For Day 2, I provided my theory and voted accordingly. I would like this runoff to continue with LD and Mike D.
I'm here because you brought up post count and SFA commented on it and mafia is using it to frame me.
Day 1 you wanted Mike D to advance in runoff, what changed in that regard?
I don't think anyone currently voting for you right now has brought any reasoning.
I explained my reasoning for moving off Mike D on Day 1 (force a runoff so I didn't die). For Day 2, I provided my theory and voted accordingly. I would like this runoff to continue with LD and Mike D.
I feel the same about Carini. It seems strange that he's in the runoff, nevermind has the most votes.
For this runoff, I'd like to see Zig and Mike D. However I fear if I move to Mike, the other Zig vote (Taint iirc) is probably switching to me.
I don't think anyone currently voting for you right now has brought any reasoning.
I explained my reasoning for moving off Mike D on Day 1 (force a runoff so I didn't die). For Day 2, I provided my theory and voted accordingly. I would like this runoff to continue with LD and Mike D.
I feel the same about Carini. It seems strange that he's in the runoff, nevermind has the most votes.
For this runoff, I'd like to see Zig and Mike D. However I fear if I move to Mike, the other Zig vote (Taint iirc) is probably switching to me.
Tainted is waiting to vote for me. He tried earlier but would have killed me instead of the runoff
Since there AGAIN seems to be an overall lack of discussion, one of the outstanding questions that seem to loom over the game so far is whether a Rummy was Mafia or not. I ran through this scenario and if I'm wrong that Rummy is town, then this is what I logically came up with as a plausible scenario.
So, first, I know I'm town, and if Rummy was Mafia, then the Mafia would want to save their dangers member. I don't believe the Mafia would allow one of their members to die by 1 vote (6-5) if they had an available vote to move. That leads me to my first conclusion in this scenario.
1. Mafia had all 3 votes on my.
This would give us 4 potential options after Rummy, but since SFA was whacked, then we would be down to 3 options. Basically:
Rummy 2 of: LD, Monky, JR
The reason I didn't find this scenario as credible as my other theory is because if this is correct, then the SFA whack would have been a dumb move. Basically, if the town ever officially found out Rummy was Mafia, then we would know that the town would immediately look back at the Day 1 final votes and start questioning those that voted to have Rummy stay and me go home. By eliminating SFA, they would be shrinking the list of "suspects" and making it much easier for the town to find the Mafia (looking at 3 players for 2 Mafia instead of looking at 4).
As far as I know (thanks Potent), there's been only Monky who has voted in this runoff, and nobody has moved a vote to someone else. So we're looking at:
I'm moving my vote to null only because I feel like the mafia is too comfortable with Carini being voted straight out. I'll take the penalty if I need to, but I don't want to lose a potential townie just because it's been a slow weekend. I probably won't be back online before the deadline, so if the ref is cool with it I'd like the ask that if one of the other three players in the runoff garner a vote before the deadline, my vote be placed back in Carini in absentia. And if that's not cool then...see you guys in the repeated runoff.
Here is a new theory that I have been working on. Basically, over the last few games, I felt that we always kept commenting how Mafia seem to stay quiet during Day 1 so I decided I wanted to do some research to see if this was actually true.
So far I have gone back thru the past 20 games, and tabulated the post counts for Day 1. I felt Day 1 post counts would be the most useful because it is the only time in the game that all 11 players are playing and posting.
1. The post count leader after Day 1 is overwhelmingly town. In 18 of the past 19 games, the post count leader after Day 1 was town (19 of 20 if I include this game). Only in Mafia 74 ( kdogg ) was the post leader Mafia (and Mafia lost that game). Now I know everyone will say that I'm bringing up this stat because I am the post count leader and want to clear myself. Yes, I know I'm town and this won't satisfy people about my status. Because of that, here are my post count positions in the five games I've played.
Mafia 88 - 1st - Town Mafia 90 - 3rd - Mafia Mafia 91 - 2nd - Mafia Mafia 92 - 1st - Town Mafia 93 - 1st - Town
As you can see, when I was Mafia, even my post count during Day 1 dropped slightly.
2. Now, onto my second, and probably more useful theory. When looking at the 3 quietest players during Day 1, at least 1 Mafia was in the "quiet 3" in 17 of the last 19 games. Additionally, in 6 of those 19 games, there were actually 2 Mafia in the "quiet 3".
And I also want to point out that in the 2 games Mafia were not in the "quiet 3", in both games ( Mafia 74 reboot and Mafia 87 ) the town whacked a Mafia member Day 1 so the Mafia would have had more incentive to be active since they were in jeopardy of losing a member.
In conclusion. I believe previous game play backs up a lot of our assumptions that Mafia tend to be quiet during Day 1, and in particular more frequently occupy the "quiet 3" and should garner additional scrutiny after Day 1.
This game's "quiet 3": Carini Mike D Tainted
This is pretty typical. It makes sense for the first round mafia not to post much when things are going their way. So yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if at least one mafia member is in this group. I mean the odds favor it anyway.
You could have also pointed out that these three are the ones that helped shape the Round 1 runoff by putting second votes on Rummy, JR and Monky. That's not damning in and of itself. Townies gotta vote and create runoffs after all. But when you combine it with their quietness it's not hard to suspect that at least one of them had an agenda.
Having said all this, I'd caution against going on a witchhunt and potentially wasting the early rounds solely on this. I've seen and been a member of mafias that use these early theories to lead the townies into a hole... where suddenly it's round 4 and the townies have zero info the go off of because they were so blindly focused on a small group of suspects.
This is the quote from SFA that started me thinking about possible mafia motivation to kill him. I feel like the mafia may have had reason to believe SFA was inspector. FSA voted for Mike D. D1R1, no reason to suspect him at that point unless he was his given name, which would be a really stupid thing for the inspector to do. Not saying that clears Mike D but it makes him slightly less suspect. He did inisinuate that it wouldn't be unreasonable to think one of those folks were mafia shaping the next runoff. So if it's not Mike D. it Carini or Taint. Taint wasn't in the runoff so I voted for the person in the runoff I had some reason to be suspicious of. Even if it wasn't a very good reason.
My vote was based on a very quick suspicion that I've still not had much time to suss out in this thread. Once again I sincerely expected to see some votes move around but it looks like everyone is going to stay right the fuck where they are. Very convenient for mafia. I'm the one left looking like an ass hole. Largely my fault because I wound up voting late in the round.
I'm moving my vote to null only because I feel like the mafia is too comfortable with Carini being voted straight out. I'll take the penalty if I need to, but I don't want to lose a potential townie just because it's been a slow weekend. I probably won't be back online before the deadline, so if the ref is cool with it I'd like the ask that if one of the other three players in the runoff garner a vote before the deadline, my vote be placed back in Carini in absentia. And if that's not cool then...see you guys in the repeated runoff.
Jaz > null
Thank you! I couldn't move my vote because it would just straight lynch another person.
FWIW Monky, the last time SFA was inspector he voted for his given name in R1. Ordinarily I'd agree that the inspector wouldn't vote for their given name right off the bat, but I know that's not something foreign to SFA - hence my comfort in remaining on Mike D.
I actually went back a few game and can't even find the last time SFA was inspector. Didn't want to go through SFA's posts via his account because he has GoT spoilers in there and I'm only on season 4.
I haven't seen the game in this position before. A round that could potentially end in a stalemate.
Is everyone here happy with their votes? My evidence for voting LD is weak enough that I would move just to get things moving, but not this close to a cutoff. I say my evidence is weak because LD is acting bizzare, but he always acts bizzare. He kept trying to put me in a runoff for no apparent reason, but playing defensively has caused me to shoot myself in the foot in past games.
I actually went back a few game and can't even find the last time SFA was inspector. Didn't want to go through SFA's posts via his account because he has GoT spoilers in there and I'm only on season 4.
Also, did someone delete Mafia 88?
Wasn't Mafia 88 the one that was skipped? I don't know why, but it had been discussed previously.
Has Mike D even made a post since being in the runoff? I know he's quiet but he's being extra silent this round IMO.
Also, while agree that LD has been acting weird and totally changed gears after being called out by ZIG, how does the SFA whack play into LD being Mafia?
Finally, I finish on saying that I think Carini is clearly someone the Mafia is cool with being in the runoff or even voted off. I think we should explore other people for the runoff besides him.
I actually went back a few game and can't even find the last time SFA was inspector. Didn't want to go through SFA's posts via his account because he has GoT spoilers in there and I'm only on season 4.
Also, did someone delete Mafia 88?
Wasn't Mafia 88 the one that was skipped? I don't know why, but it had been discussed previously.
