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What do we need a runoff for? We should just kill SFA instead of taking chances
We have to address this Two Inspectors situation at some point, right? Everything in this game ultimately goes through Viking/ZIG as it is, right?
I figure we learn absolutely nothing from the whack if we unanimously vote SFA dead now. Mafia will just whack a SFA voter, and we'll be just as confused - and down a Townsperson - going into Day Three.
This way we have more Townspeople weighing in, and I think the votes & whack will be more informative.
2 separate inspectors say SFA is Mafia. We vote out SFA, 100% we get Mafia. Gamble between myself and Viking, 50/50 you get it right, and based on your views, you would get it wrong.
Move to Day 3 and force the Mafia to make a tough decision. 1. Vote out the real inspector. 2. Vote out the fake inspector. 3. Vote out a townie.
Ref's Note: I'm getting on a plane to Las Vegas in a couple hours. I won't be on my personal computer again until Friday morning. Forgive me if my posts lack clarity and my responses are a tad slow. kdogg, feel free to post tallies if I'm late. You can even add the noob ref tally back in.
Vote History R1 Mike D > Viking R1 Viking > Mike D R1 kdogg > SFA R1 Potent > Mike D R1 SFA > Viking R1 Carini > Mike D R1 kdogg > SFA > Mike D R1 danbob > Mike D R1 ZIG > SFA R1 Potent > Mike D > Viking R1 kdogg > SFA > Mike D > SFA R1 Rummy > SFA R1 Mike D > Viking > SFA R1 Carini > Mike D > SFA R1 kdogg > SFA > Mike D > SFA > ZIG R1 danbob > Mike D > ZIG R1 Rummy > SFA > ZIG R1 Viking > Mike D > Viking R1 ZIG > SFA > Viking R1 Viking > Mike D > Viking > SFA R1 ZIG > SFA > Viking > SFA
Left To Vote N/A
This round will end on Monday, July 11th at 12:00 P.M. EDT
I think we can all agree that the following four players have some degree of involvement - and, in my cases, guilt - in the Two Inspectors conflict: Viking ZIG SFA Mike D
Look how they're voting: R1 Mike D > Viking R1 Viking > Mike D R1 kdogg > SFA R1 Potent > Mike D R1 SFA > Viking R1 Carini > Mike D R1 kdogg > SFA > Mike D R1 danbob > Mike D R1 ZIG > SFA R1 Potent > Mike D > Viking R1 kdogg > SFA > Mike D > SFA R1 Rummy > SFA R1 Mike D > Viking > SFA R1 Carini > Mike D > SFA R1 kdogg > SFA > Mike D > SFA > ZIG R1 danbob > Mike D > ZIG R1 Rummy > SFA > ZIG R1 Viking > Mike D > Viking R1 ZIG > SFA > Viking R1 Viking > Mike D > Viking > SFA R1 ZIG > SFA > Viking > SFA
Is it just me, or is it rather suspicious that NONE of our persons of interest have voted for ZIG? Not once. Not with all these vote changes. Everyone who's cast a vote for ZIG here, I generally read as Town myself.
Lol really? So your strategy is to try and run the table discrediting me and saving Mike D for the finale? ZiG, you are getting really desperate.... will be making my post in the am.
Interesting how you are still desperatly trying to cling to control. Also way to just gloss over the fact that your arguement all day is shot and then try to leverage it to hide and take away the time the town obviously wants.
Kdogg, i have not voted for ZIG because I am 100% sure on the other 2. I Am 99% on him but that only happened after he came out. He still os providing info for the town atm. But that is my reasoning. I didnt feel a burning need to move because voting Mike provides just as much info
But like i've said twice now, you guys should vote me off. I understood that reality last night. The only way the townies have a shot is to try and clear some of the confusion. Nobody is going to trust me, so it's best if I'm gone. In fact, it's best if townies don't even interact with me and taint their good names. It will just cause suspicion in later rounds.
Viking Scenario Inspector: Viking Known Mafia: Mike D (given,) SFA (Night One) Implied Mafia: ZIG Stated next ask: ZIG
ZIG Scenario Inspector: ZIG Known Mafia: SFA (given) Implied Mafia: Viking Known Town: Potent (Night One) Stated next ask: Carini / danbob
Lying Mafia Scum Scenario Inspector: Jaz Known Mafia: ? Implied Mafia: Viking & ZIG Implied Town: SFA [Note: Night One whacks have a tendency to target an actual or suspected Inspector. Jaz only voted Viking, but his posts expressed suspicion of Mike D.]
Most people who play with me know by now I'm usually pretty quiet in the first round; this is no exception. I've been loosely following the game but so far I'm satisfied with the runoff and see no need to move my vote.
WLViking in re my vote for you: you're a big talker, which makes me wary because of your tendency to obfuscate. While you're not a player that I see cracking under pressure, it can be worth seeing who doesn't want to vote for you and who does.
You said yourself that you tend to find yourself in D1 runoffs often - and you admit that it's because of the way you play. I'm just helping you make the bed for you to lay in.
As for my absence - like I said, I'm usually exceptionally quiet Day 1, and life has been quite busy the past several days. I agree with your assessment of Talkers/Watchers though and how the Mafia might be split. Though generally you're the player I trust the least from game to game so I'm not paying you much mind just yet.
Meh, not being cryptic. You said you understand how your playing style garners you votes, so that was just my way of saying that my vote is one of them. Frankly, you talk so much and in so many directions that you make the game harder for me, regardless of role. I have had no inclinations throughout this round whether or not any player is Mafia over another, so I'm keeping my vote on you. You may not like that and I will concede arguments that maybe that's not a helpful way for me to play, but tough noogies.
Right now I'm inclined to believe him. I had taken notice of both SFA and Mike D's votes on him earlier in the game, and noted to myself that it could be two vets' (or just one's) attempt to take out a dangerous player. I haven't gone back and read their reasons for voting for him yet, but you'd think that if they were both townies they'd want one of the better players to remain in the game unless they had strong suspicions of him being Mafia. And yes, I realize that my own vote for Viking is in contradiction to this, but I'm a lazier player than SFA/Mike D, and like I said I find Viking's play to make my own read of the game more difficult.
Possible scenarios, assuming Mike D and Viking are not both Mafia or both town:
1. We vote Thor out
A. Viking is Inspector
i. Mafia whack him, we vote out Mike D, and we start Day 3 with 1M/3T down, or 2M/2T down if Thor is Mafia. ii. Mafia let him live, we vote out Mike D, and we start Day 3 with 1M/3T down, or 2M/2T down if Thor is Mafia. In this situation I think we would also then have to vote out Viking in Day 3 to ensure that we have at least Mafia killed going into Day 4. iii. Mafia let him live, we vote him out thinking he's Mafia, and we start Day 3 with 0M/4T down or 1M/3T if Thor is Mafia.
B. Viking is Mafia
i. Mafia whack him, we vote out Mike D, and we start Day 3 with 1M/3T down, or 2M/2T down if Thor is Mafia. ii. Mafia let him live, we vote out Mike D, and we start Day 3 with 0M/4T down, or 1M/3T if Thor is Mafia. iii. Mafia let him live, we vote him out, and start Day 3 with 1M down or 2M down if Thor is Mafia.
2. We vote Viking out
A. Viking is Inspector
i. We vote out Mike D and start Day 3 with 1M/3T down.
B. Viking is Mafia
i. We vote out Mike D and start Day 3 with 1M/3T down.
The following opinion is probably going to make me look bad, but I think it might be wiser to vote out Viking, regardless of whether or not he's inspector. Voting him out this round and Mike D the next would ensure that we've voted out at least one Mafia - which is really the best scenario that we can hope for if we DON'T vote him out this round, unless Thor is Mafia also and we go 2 for 2 by voting out a Mafia next round. In not voting him out, we run the risk of opening ourselves up to greater confusion if the Mafia don't whack him, as well as to the possibility of having NO Mafia down going into Day 3 if they let him live and we vote out the townie out of Viking/Mike D. The only caveat is that Viking could be Inspector, the Mafia let him live to throw shade on him, and then we get another name out of it - but with this name comes a greater amount of confusion and clusterfuckiness.
Though I should add that personally I think Mike D is full of shit, but if I've learned anything about Mafia by now it's that I'm almost always wrong when I think I know something.
Say what you want ZIG, but that post by kdogg was actually pretty helpful, for me at least. The statements Viking made about Mike D prior to his reveal certainly bolster his claim. To some extent that could be viewed as just Viking being Viking (he sure does mention any and everyone when he plays), but I do think it's interesting that he mentioned Mike D more than anyone else.
I really don't agree with the idea of having the two inspectors alone in a runoff and as it stands now I am going to keep my vote on SFA. To a certain extent I understand wanting to see how the votes would pan out, but if we vote out the real inspector . . . good game, i would seriously doubt the town would stand a chance at all. If you are either mafia or 100% beyond any doubt that Viking's claims are true, then yes, you would want these two in a runoff. What mafia wouldn't love to have the town vote out the inspector??? I would like to think the mafia would decide to kill the inspector, but considering how much support an "inspector" who lived through the night has had in this round already, anything is possible. I believe it would be a mistake to vote out one of those two and I am keeping my vote on SFA
Good morning all. I will be responding Mr Zig today once my brain unscrambles and then breaking down how I think the stretch will go. On Friday, I said I was guarding something but there is no need now and I was wrong anyways.
Zigzag, go back and look at the 2 other games I have been inspector. I had all 3 the first time and had 2 of 3 the last time. Tried to survive the night but left all the evidence before before getting whacked. Anyways, be back in a bit.
Ok, I will pull a brief version together in the am when I get to the office. Just got off 4 hour flight so a little crispy and heading home for some rest. I'll have it up early.
Holiday weekend but I am all caught up now. Will post in the am. Strange how KDOGG has weasled his way out of the runoff already. Anyways. I'll be back in am, but thoughts have been brewing.
I really don't agree with the idea of having the two inspectors alone in a runoff and as it stands now I am going to keep my vote on SFA. To a certain extent I understand wanting to see how the votes would pan out, but if we vote out the real inspector . . . good game, i would seriously doubt the town would stand a chance at all. If you are either mafia or 100% beyond any doubt that Viking's claims are true, then yes, you would want these two in a runoff. What mafia wouldn't love to have the town vote out the inspector??? I would like to think the mafia would decide to kill the inspector, but considering how much support an "inspector" who lived through the night has had in this round already, anything is possible. I believe it would be a mistake to vote out one of those two and I am keeping my vote on SFA
So... you're voting along with an Inspector who would have us all believe that you were his given name?
We know for a fact that at least one Lying Mafia Scum is telling us that SFA is guilty here.
Can I ask everyone why are we trusting a Lying Mafia Scum?
More broad than just the SFA claims, I know for a fact that Viking is Lying Mafia Scum and I have read pages and pages of folks trusting him, i've been asking myself the same question. However I don't think this is a fair question considering that both inspectors have named him as mafia. Right now I firmly believe it would be a mistake to let a known mafia get through the day and let the mafia get away with not making a move on the inspector.
Other folks may have a different opinion, but that is mine.
I really don't agree with the idea of having the two inspectors alone in a runoff and as it stands now I am going to keep my vote on SFA. To a certain extent I understand wanting to see how the votes would pan out, but if we vote out the real inspector . . . good game, i would seriously doubt the town would stand a chance at all. If you are either mafia or 100% beyond any doubt that Viking's claims are true, then yes, you would want these two in a runoff. What mafia wouldn't love to have the town vote out the inspector??? I would like to think the mafia would decide to kill the inspector, but considering how much support an "inspector" who lived through the night has had in this round already, anything is possible. I believe it would be a mistake to vote out one of those two and I am keeping my vote on SFA
So... you're voting along with an Inspector who would have us all believe that you were his given name?
To vote out a known mafia yes. Although I feel that is somewhat of a loaded question considering I had my vote on SFA before Viking did. Also Viking stated that SFA was mafia so I am not sure why that is surprising.
Most people who play with me know by now I'm usually pretty quiet in the first round; this is no exception. I've been loosely following the game but so far I'm satisfied with the runoff and see no need to move my vote.
Red Flag Count: 2 Also, "pretty quiet in the first round" is an Inspector-ish thing to do. Yes?
WLViking in re my vote for you: you're a big talker, which makes me wary because of your tendency to obfuscate. While you're not a player that I see cracking under pressure, it can be worth seeing who doesn't want to vote for you and who does.
You said yourself that you tend to find yourself in D1 runoffs often - and you admit that it's because of the way you play. I'm just helping you make the bed for you to lay in.
As for my absence - like I said, I'm usually exceptionally quiet Day 1, and life has been quite busy the past several days. I agree with your assessment of Talkers/Watchers though and how the Mafia might be split. Though generally you're the player I trust the least from game to game so I'm not paying you much mind just yet.
Red Flag Count: I spy three in this post, so... 5?
Meh, not being cryptic. You said you understand how your playing style garners you votes, so that was just my way of saying that my vote is one of them. Frankly, you talk so much and in so many directions that you make the game harder for me, regardless of role. I have had no inclinations throughout this round whether or not any player is Mafia over another, so I'm keeping my vote on you. You may not like that and I will concede arguments that maybe that's not a helpful way for me to play, but tough noogies.
Right now I'm inclined to believe him. I had taken notice of both SFA and Mike D's votes on him earlier in the game, and noted to myself that it could be two vets' (or just one's) attempt to take out a dangerous player.I haven't gone back and read their reasons for voting for him yet, but you'd think that if they were both townies they'd want one of the better players to remain in the game unless they had strong suspicions of him being Mafia. And yes, I realize that my own vote for Viking is in contradiction to this, but I'm a lazier player than SFA/Mike D, and like I said I find Viking's play to make my own read of the game more difficult.
Jaz suggested he was paying closer attention to Viking than he led on earlier? I'll admit this post is a close call. But I'll also point out that I was inclined to believe Viking's claim when I looked at a Mike D Red Flag Count and saw 5. Even if I leave this one off the list, the Lying Mafia Scum Red Flag Count on Jaz is already up to 6.
Possible scenarios, assuming Mike D and Viking are not both Mafia or both town:
1. We vote Thor out
A. Viking is Inspector
i. Mafia whack him, we vote out Mike D, and we start Day 3 with 1M/3T down, or 2M/2T down if Thor is Mafia. ii. Mafia let him live, we vote out Mike D, and we start Day 3 with 1M/3T down, or 2M/2T down if Thor is Mafia. In this situation I think we would also then have to vote out Viking in Day 3 to ensure that we have at least Mafia killed going into Day 4. iii. Mafia let him live, we vote him out thinking he's Mafia, and we start Day 3 with 0M/4T down or 1M/3T if Thor is Mafia.
B. Viking is Mafia
i. Mafia whack him, we vote out Mike D, and we start Day 3 with 1M/3T down, or 2M/2T down if Thor is Mafia. ii. Mafia let him live, we vote out Mike D, and we start Day 3 with 0M/4T down, or 1M/3T if Thor is Mafia. iii. Mafia let him live, we vote him out, and start Day 3 with 1M down or 2M down if Thor is Mafia.
2. We vote Viking out
A. Viking is Inspector
i. We vote out Mike D and start Day 3 with 1M/3T down.
B. Viking is Mafia
i. We vote out Mike D and start Day 3 with 1M/3T down.
The following opinion is probably going to make me look bad, but I think it might be wiser to vote out Viking, regardless of whether or not he's inspector. Voting him out this round and Mike D the next would ensure that we've voted out at least one Mafia - which is really the best scenario that we can hope for if we DON'T vote him out this round, unless Thor is Mafia also and we go 2 for 2 by voting out a Mafia next round. In not voting him out, we run the risk of opening ourselves up to greater confusion if the Mafia don't whack him, as well as to the possibility of having NO Mafia down going into Day 3 if they let him live and we vote out the townie out of Viking/Mike D. The only caveat is that Viking could be Inspector, the Mafia let him live to throw shade on him, and then we get another name out of it - but with this name comes a greater amount of confusion and clusterfuckiness.
Thoughts?
Red Flag Count: 7 In this post, he starts out mentioning an association between Viking and Mike D. He wanted Viking dead regardless of his role [/i.] Could that have heightened suspicion? Could that be what got him whacked?
Though I should add that personally I think Mike D is full of shit, but if I've learned anything about Mafia by now it's that I'm almost always wrong when I think I know something.
Say what you want ZIG, but that post by kdogg was actually pretty helpful, for me at least. The statements Viking made about Mike D prior to his reveal certainly bolster his claim. To some extent that could be viewed as just Viking being Viking (he sure does mention any and everyone when he plays), but I do think it's interesting that he mentioned Mike D more than anyone else.
[/spoiler][/quote] If, in the Lying Mafia Scum Scenario, Inspector Jaz was onto Viking... you think there would be some heavy hints Jaz was looking at Mike D for a guess?
Only AFTER Jaz was whacked did ZIG "reveal" here. Perhaps also worth noting, the Implied Mafia in this scenario (ZIG) and likely guess (Mike D) were among the last to retreat from a Viking vote. Without Jaz, was there a Mafia comfort level in actually pulling off the "double fake" that was suggested earlier?
We also have the apparent teamwork between Implied Mafia Viking & ZIG on the SFA claim and vote. I would expect all-out war between counter-claiming Inspectors... yet those two seem to be on agreeable terms despite obvious lies.
The Lying Mafia Scum Scenario explains so many of the "WTF?" moments I see the longer this game goes. I hope we can at least give the potential Inspector Jaz equal consideration with the two that we already have.
We should've been more diligent after his death to begin with, sadly.
...and that's just when I run a search functions on player names. Jaz made some direct replies to Viking without saying the word.
Jaz individually mentioned Viking and Mike D more than the other nine players combined. Since Jaz got whacked, we should at least ask ourselves: whose radar was he on?
Massive post dump within spoiler tag. I just did a re-read between the Viking claim and the final D1R4 8-3 vote tally. Select posts from that span that seem relevant - hell, which is a majority of them are quoted within. Thoughts to follow.
I had a feeling something was afoot when I asked Jimmy the odds of me/Viking/Jimmy all being Town. I was already in a place where I was reconsidering my vote... which, had I done so, would've created a 7-4 vote - but something that lopsided didn't feel right.
Dammit. I haven't had my two-drink minimum of coffee for the day yet. Last time I was in this situation, it didn't go so well.
Well considering Vikings responses to me were pretty lacking I can't say I am too surprised to see this lol. I felt your responses to me were more to get a reaction and not answer/have discussion which is why a felt you were most likely mafia out of the ones in the runoff. Round 1 is often a crap shoot, push a button and see who reacts. Guess I pushed the right button this game. Still waiting on that crayon drawing by the way.
And just for shits and giggles, before I change my name to MIA, typically how active am I in round 1?
I need to sink my teeth into all this new information from Viking; especially since he thinks I'm Mafia with SFA and Mike D, when I know that's wrong because I'm a townie.
Viking claims inspector. The town doesn't want to kill the inspector because the inspector is the most important townie.
My vote was on Viking. I moved to null so that both Viking and Thor currently have 5 votes. This ensures for the moment that Viking doesn't die by our hands.
Typically, with an inspector reveal, you want to force the Mafia to kill him. So in this situation, we would probably have to kill Thor, seems to be a growing pattern, and force the Mafia to whack Viking at night.
The other part Dan808 is that Viking could be faking, and we would know this if he were left to live after night 1. Viking as mafia could of course sacrifice himself and have the mafia whack a mafia (still a rule I hate but whatever) and then we'd be down anyway, and we would presumably have the inspector left to help us out. If the mafia whacks Viking, we have confirmation he was inspector, or we still have the inspector alive if he's faking as town to save himself and the inspector.
If he's faking and he's mafia, so he's left alive and continuing the ruse of being inspector, then the person he names will know he's faking because they won't be mafia.
It's irresponsible of us as townies to kill someone who comes out as inspector, especially on Day 1. We'd be doing the mafia's dirty work for them.
Oh wow. Okay. Just gave quick reread but glad to see there's an extension; about to go get lunch w my father and my car fixed after that. Will return to this in a few hours.
Inclination? Right now it is to believe Viking. Mike D/MIA was high on my suspicious list anyway so this isn't all too surprising of a truth to be revealed - if indeed true.
SFA response is so long, I gave it it's own "spoiler within a spoiler." Still worth reading.
My vote switch to SFA is actually something that I do every time he plays but I never moved off of him because Mike D was voting for him and for whatever reason, mafia members tend to vote for each other earlier thinking that voting partners means hiding. That was reinforced with all the "no one uses voting partners" talk early on.
So thats all I have guys. As a recap, Mike D is known, SFA is likely, then ZIG. If that doesn't work, Carini or Jaz (or I guess Rummy but unlikely). I tried to do a better job hiding than I did in Mafia 76, and left out all the connections I normally make in my posts, but the inertia of history was too great.
Well, giving that it's the first round I'm inclined to believe you. But, I must say, throwing this much shade my way makes me very leery. Seriously, I'm 'very likely" mafia? You do realize that if you are wrong(you are) that you're handing the mafia a bone, right? I shouldn't have to explain this to you.
Opening up the game voting for each other isn't evidence of shit. That goes for anyone. I pretty much always reciprocate a vote if I have one when the round starts. If not, I tend to pick an older player but it's whatever really. If anything, me not returning Mike's vote would be the irregularity in my playing style.
SFA has posted very little of substance and even self-admits his posts have been fluffy this game.
We apparently agree on some of the main points I did raise is my own superfluffy way. I didn't find Kdogg or Jimmy particularly suspicious so I didn't vote for either of them(Although I did consider it might be good info gathering for both to go forward). I thought the original hubbub was more of a misunderstanding based on personalities and playing styles. You apparently agree with that line of thinking as well, at least you do now....after my suspicious ass had already said it.
You know very well how I feel about calling out supposed mafia and getting into huge arguments in the first round. Why is it surprising I didn't involve myself in the argument? In fact, the last time I did involve myself in first round drama I was mafia. So there's that.
I also brought up that Kdogg, Potent and you are usual suspects for an early runoff. That's something you've echoed too.
Yet somehow I've said "little of substance."
He also reciprocated my vote which he rarely ever does when I do the "lucky" vote, hence why I believe him to be mafia and was going to guess him.
There's a good deal of distortion here. Your lucky vote tended to happen prior to any runoff and your vote didn't always force me into it. So I generally didn't feel justified in returning the vote, nor did I find it incredible suspicious of you. As I've already explained, I didn't fully trust you using that as a reason for placing me in a runoff, so I returned the favor. Your undervaluing my ability to play this game if you honestly think I'd give you a free pass based on a "luck vote." I know better.
Basically, It was the vote that made the most sense at the time. Like I've told you in plenty of games we've played together... You're overreacting and placing more meaning behind that vote than what is there. Stop it, please.
This Mike D/Potent exchange regarding Other Inspector Reveal is also revealing, but also long so spoiler:
One thing I have to point out regarding Viking is the numerous "if yall didn't want me to play, why didn't you tell me that from the beginning" comments. He has been playing this game long enough to know that someone has to go the first day. None of us want to be the day 1 vote, but a smart townie and someone playing this game as long as he has should realize that it's got to be someone and if it's you, you can still give the town something to go on. I said that from my point of view he was trying to get a reaction more than decent conversation with me, add that to the sob story comments that he made about how we should have told him not to play (almost like he wanted to give up instead of be in the first round runoff) and it starts to be more and more obvious, but right now I am the only one who knows he is full of it (besides the other two mafia).
Right now I think the inspector should not come out. If they were given a name other than Viking they now have two known mafia. Obviously I am not going to change my vote because I know Viking is mafia, but it is still the smarter move to vote off Thor and make the mafia kill off Viking. This basically guarantees the inspector will get an overnight guess and not be killed. If the mafia are really bold, think the town is completely lost, and has an extremely good feeling they know the inspector, they could kill off that person, making us waste next round voting off Viking, but I don't see that happening.
I think there is a reasonable chance the mafia though the inspector had Vikings name and that is why they chose him to come out as fake, it would make it easier for them if that was the only mafia name to come up if the real inspector comes out now. I am also assuming there is a chance they though it was me because I was the one they chose to say was mafia and also the vote on Viking that put him in the next runoff instead of kdogg, but no way to know for sure.
Having not played in a long while I don't know what the trends have been in recent games with faking inspectors, but I would be willing to bet that there is at least one other veteran such as kdogg, SFA, Thor, maybe Carini as mafia and most likely a newer player that that we would have no real reading on from past games that would make it easy to go deep into this game. Off hand I would say most likely danbob because I believe this is your first game? No sure how long you, potent, and rummy have been playing. Zig and Jaz would be wildcards for me. Considering Thor is most likely about to be voted off I would say he is least likely to be mafia in this situation. And no, I am not calling out anyone else as mafia, but putting myself in Vikings shoes, I would likely only do what he was doing if I had at least one of (if not both) Kdogg/SFA and danbob.
Whether or not you believe Viking I would like to hear some other thoughts from those who have played games in the last year or so where there was a fake inspector situation, I think it was 73 the last time I played (before last game).
Actually, and this might sound crazy, but if the inspector is not Viking, it might make more sense for them to come out now. Here's my reasoning. If Viking is faking, then we need to work under the assumption that he's mafia trying to save his ass (something I don't dismiss). If the inspector has someone else's name, they need to come out with it now because we would then kill a mafia member via Day 1, and we'd have a second name. That's a hell of a lot better for a first day than we usually do. Mafia will have to whack the out inspector overnight, so they won't get a guess in, but we'll already have a ton of information.
So I guess in an unorthodox move, I'm asking the inspector to reveal him/herself if it's not Viking. Let's not take a chance they kill you overnight and leave us more clueless than the town usually is.
I understand your point, but if the real inspector comes out now we only have their given name and Viking if Viking wasn't their given. If the inspector comes out now, the mafia kill them, leaving Viking (known mafia) alive. If the inspector waits, they have an all but guaranteed guess they can come out with to start day two, giving us more information at virtually no risk of the real inspector being killed overnight.
For Day 1 inspector reveals, I am always of the prefence to keep the Inspector alive and force the Mafia to go after the Inspector during Night 1, even when that inspector is a slimy sketch-ball like Viking.
I ask that we take the possibility of Inspector Jaz into consideration. Call it due diligence in his honor.
I mentioned this scenario here: Lying Mafia Scum Scenario Inspector: Jaz Known Mafia: ? Implied Mafia: Viking & ZIG Implied Town: SFA
I know it sounds crazy, but the double fake is not an impossible plan. If it's your plan from the beginning, I think there's a chance you can pull it off. Here's what Mafia would need. I think these conditions may have been met in our situation: 1. Two believable false Inspector claims. 2. Reasonable certainty you can determine and whack an Inspector in the first round. 3. Balls.
How do you find out your Inspector so fast? Beat them to the punch with a false claim.
From the player reactions I reviewed, I would say that six players seemed definitely on board at the time: JimmyThor Danbob kdogg Potent Carini Rummy (More on the others to come.)
Viking had ten fellow players here. Six were believers, two were his allies. That's already eight of ten. That effectively makes the Mafia's chance of finding the actual Inspector at 50-50, in the wake of a reveal.
Here's the four remaining. Mike D ZIG Jaz SFA
The Lying Mafia Scum Scenario would then include: two Mafia (including 2nd "Inspector,") one Town, and one Inspector. Let's take a closer look at them.
Mike D * Seemed way too cordial in his first Post-reveal post, didn't even bother to deny the accusation - as Thor pointed out. * Was very intent on discouraging potential reveal from another Inspector. Mentioned multiple times, while Viking was in active runoff. Possibly stalling for time? * "I think there is a reasonable chance the mafia though the inspector had Vikings name and that is why they chose him to come out as fake" * Called Viking a Mafia and a fake Inspector, but is currently casting the exact same vote as Viking despite that.
ZIG * Seemed very concerned about extensions. Worth noting, because we saw an extension from special role players this game. * Said he needed "time to digest" at the time and nulled his vote. Relevant because he later told the Town that he had complete information on Viking all along. * I found this exchange curious, given how things turned out. Danbob: Why switch to null? By coming out as inspector he guarantees his death. ZIG: You make no sense noob... * Called Viking a Mafia and a fake Inspector, but is currently casting the exact same vote as Viking despite that.
SFA * Actually posted as one would expect from a player who'd been accused of being Mafia, pushing back . * This feels (at least to me) more like how an accused should respond, and in contrast with how Mike D reacted to the same accusation. * Made mention of the Lying Mafia Scum Scenario, so likely wouldn't be a part of it. * Highly regarded veteran who would likely be high on any Mafia's hit list. It's no surprise that Lying Mafia Scum would try to set him up, of all players.
Jaz * Looked at scenarios from all potential angles, suggesting he didn't accept amd/or was looking beyond Viking's version of events. * Had mentioned Viking more than anyone in his posts, with Mike D a close second. * Brought Viking into runoff in D1R1, stacking on what appeared to be a rather plausible first Viking vote from Rummy.
I have trouble trusting either of these claimed Inspectors at this point.
Here's a few general reasons, without going too far into specifics on either individual's claim:
1. Mafia make an attempt on an Inspector (or their suspected one) in Night One a healthy majority of the time. That was Jaz in this game. I think Jaz did plenty to make Viking suspicious of him before he got whacked, both via his votes and mentions.
2. We know at least one of (Viking/ZIG) is a Lying Mafia Scum. They both say SFA is Mafia and both want him lynched. Therefore, it is 100% confirmed: Lying Mafia Scum want SFA dead.
3. I have included this phrase to describe other players twice while writing this: * Called Viking a Mafia and a fake Inspector, but is currently casting the exact same vote as Viking despite that. Both times, the player was accused of being Mafia by Viking - by direct accusation or by making a counter-claim.
This does not sit right with me. These players should more likely be at each other's throats, not forming a voting coalition!
4. It feels to me that Viking's reveal came ridiculously early, and ZIG's counter-reveal came too late to be of use to Town. Both timings arouse suspicion, especially given the Night One discussion delay.
I could go on with even more reasons. I could go on about players who received less attention according to this scenario. I'm willing to do that.
But please, please, please I ask of the Town: Consider the Lying Mafia Scum Scenario. Thanks again.
P.S. Not saying 100% Mike D would be the third. Possible that one was hiding in the "believer" crowd instead, and that both SFA & Mike D were targeted as veteran powerhouses.
Post by potentpotables on Jul 11, 2016 6:44:09 GMT -5
KDogg, I'm in for the theory. I think we have 4 of us that I feel comfortable calling town at this point: you, me, Dan808, and Rummy 500. What do we need to do? Runoff between Viking and ZIG?
P.S. Not saying 100% Mike D would be the third. Possible that one was hiding in the "believer" crowd instead, and that both SFA & Mike D were targeted as veteran powerhouses.
Meant to quote this in the post above so you'd know I saw this. Time seems to be of the essence here...
OK, Well this weekend was a shit show here apparently. I am going to break up this post into 3 to make it easier for people to read and digest. They will be as follows:
- Reasoning behind why I thought people had roles they did and reasoning behind certain posts
- Discussion ZIG's weekend of delusions
- Where I think the game will go from here
I more than likely will not post or quote as much as some did this weekend and will likely be accused of hiding for doing so, but I really do not care. Before we get into that, I will address the vote insanity last night.
As I said, I would prefer the town to decide on the inspector earlier than later. My vote was on Mike D all weekend because he is my given name. When ZIG came out and tried to fake inspector, I had all 3 names. He is correct in that voting for SFA gives the least knowledge, but it is also the cleanest kill. Regardless, it seemed the town wanted a runoff and I was the one holding it up so I voted for myself last evening. This was after ZIG had been betting I wouldn't all day. Unfortunatly, I seem to have fallen into a mafia trap they laid for KDogg et al., because ZIG then switched over to super stack, kill the runoff, and KDogg's brain exploded. And then when it looked like things started to clear for him, Mike D coincidentally comes back and starts posting.
So to clear up any confusion and set the table, my given name was Mike D, I guessed and was correct about SFA, and ZIG's fake makes him the 3rd. So that the town can figure this out when everyone can play during the week,
Viking >>> Viking
If ZIG wants to come back over and try to reforce me to move again, I honestly do not care. Also ZIG, some of us have lives. Between my kids, guests at my house all weekend and playing in a golf tournament at my club with one of those guests, it is not a matter of broken promises. I don't go to sleep every night cradling my computer. And I didn't look at it until this morning.
KDogg, I'm in for the theory. I think we have 4 of us that I feel comfortable calling town at this point: you, me, Dan808, and Rummy 500. What do we need to do? Runoff between Viking and ZIG?
You realize that if you kill of the wrong inspector this round that you are giving the Mafia the ability to win it on Day 3...
Come on people. You guys you can't even decide on a fake inspector, now you want to believe Kdogg that there is a double fake inspector...It seems odd to me that Kdogg, who most people think is town, is the one driving where this round is going. And let's not forget who brought up a double fake inspector to begin with...SFA, the one person double accused....
Post 1 - Why I felt people had the roles they did. Dan808 you asked for more complete logic so here it is.
First, a discussion on the inspector role. It has been said (mainly by ZIG) that I was drawing too much attention to really be inspector and that there is no way I could be because I was way to exposed. Lets say I went into this role and just became a mute and turtled up. In all the games I have played, I have never done that so it would obviously stick out to people. To confirm this, look at the critique I was getting at the end of the 4th weekend and the attention being quiet was already starting to draw. The only way for me to play this (or any other role) at this point is to be constantly exposed. That makes it the hardest role for me as I have said several times because I have a tendency to wind up in D1 runoffs or a newer trend to get whacked D1. I use to never have to worry about getting whacked, but previous mafia's found out that comes back to bite them later on.
So I had to be fairly exposed. In Mafia 76, I played exactly how i always play, putting a lot of info out there, making links, theories and connections. While I was wrong on Roo who was the primary target a la Jimmy this game, I was able to identify a second mafia member I felt confident about and left enough information about the given name and my guess that night for the town to figure it out and bring in the win. Obviously, I was way too close for comfort and despite the risks, instead of trying to discredit me, I was whacked overnight. I had been counting on surviving the night and making it to Day 2 to give a more complete reveal.
This game, I decided to leave more subtle clues and not build the grand story, but I had to try and be "me" a bit, Unfortunately, being me is not really popular at the moment so I immediately drew votes that maybe I would not have in the past. That is fine and completely understandable. Going forward, I will be changing how I play a bit so that I am easier to play with but I have to live with the past and play around it. What I was looking for were things that stood out or stretches when certain people voted. I find it actually easier to determine roles when I am under attack because it lets you ferret out who is using real logic and who is making a stretch.
Mike D would have stood out even if I did not have his name. He voted for me simply because I said it was odd that KDogg had snuck out of a runoff. Knowing he had my name, I started to get the feeling that they were going to ride the anti-Viking wave and try and kill me off Day 1. You have to admit, the strategy was a good one and if I was not the inspector, it absolutely would have worked. Back to Mike D, he normally stays quiet when he does post and vote, it is typically in a thoughtful, well thought out manor. His vote for me when there was a firestorm brewing between Jimmy, KDogg, Potent, Zig, and Dan that all of us were watching is very out of character for him, but allowed me to shine the light his way as KDogg has highlighted very well. However, I had to leave outs like "its the holiday weekend and everyone was quiet" because I was trying to survive. I was trying to thread the needle of saying enough to rouse suspicion but not enough to get me killed which is hard to do with quiet players. I do not think I was successful here, because I immediately drew a lot of heat after this. Admittedly some of that was my doing but some of the next few days was in an attempt to hide as I will get to.
The vote for SFA truly is a lucky habit. You can go back and look at any game I have played with him including my first game ever in Mafia 47 and I have always voted for him and it has always worked out. He also use to voting partner with Mike D a lot, so it worked out that way. ZIG and KDogg had a bit of discussion about who inspectors vote for Friday and this may have been where ZIG got the idea. In the 3 games I have gotten this role, I have voted alongside my given name in D1. The reason is that mafia have a tendency to vote for each other on Day 1. If I vote alongside, it does 2 things. First, it reduces suspicion a bit and second, it freezes their vote. If they are the one to move off, they "save" the other person and it causes stress early at a time when the mafia does not have as much stress. It also messes up any attempt to distance if they have to make that move and can provide early links between players. In this instance, the firestorm going on drew enough votes that Mike's was released from SFA, allowing him to vote for me without consequence. This becomes important later when we get to why ZIG is faking.
As I pointed out numerous times (and this is where some of ZIG's comments get comical), SFA was posting pure fluff. Despite what he says I have played with him as mafia several times and he DOES worry about post counts. When Dan posted that in thread, all of the sudden, he came on and made 3 or 4 posts with no substance. All of you should know SFA better than that at this point. He is a better player and makes well thought out responses, so I began to think I had hit pay dirt on my vote and left it in place. He then turned and reciprocated on me without much commentary once I got him in the runoff which was very unusual. Again, he is one of those players who usually makes thought out responses and it seemed his vote was for pretty aberrant reasons. So again, I left a few posts that highlighted my suspicions and began to look for the 3rd.
If you remember, I stated early on that there were talkers and watchers. Usually, you have mafia hide in each area and with Mike and SFA sitting in the quiet camp, and SFA trying to move out of it, my thinking was that there was a mafia hidden in the talker group. Originally I did think there was a mafia member in the KDogg / Jimmy dispute. It just seemed very off and Jimmy was being especially combative. When I posted about KDogg squirming out, I had not had the chance to fully pull it apart, but once I did, I was pretty sure on KDogg being town. He probably does not realize it, but he has a few tics and tells that come from how he thinks which shine a light on where he stands. I am going to put this out here for the help of the town even though it will probably hurt us later on, but when KDogg is mafia, he tends to be a lot more focused. Look at the events of this weekend. He has spun himself so deep that if he were a drill, he would be in the earth's core by now. Juxtapose that with his mafia play, and the details he latches on to are critical to the game play. It probably has to do with having 2 sounding boards, but his conflict with Jimmy was seemingly an argument about nothing that was created to spin him up. That very well may be the case, but as I figured out later, Jimmy was likely doing that just because he gets antagonistic at times.
So at this point, I was sure on Mike D, thought SFA was my second, and thought KDogg was a townie. At that time, I only had Jimmy to vote for and he was suspicious to me at the time, and I placed my vote there. I was pretty sure that I was going to be left out of the next runoff, so when I was placed in it, I was very surprised. Despite this, I was confident I would not be selected to be lynched because there was no literally no logic behind killing me in all 4 votes I pulled, unless I was getting set up. Given where I was, I again highlighted each vote. SFA and Mike D made sense to me at the time but I could not just come out and say "hey they are mafia". Rummy, I was giving a wide berth because of the last game I played. She was quieter, but at the end of the day her vote seemed much more to do with emotion and playing style than malicious intent. Jaz was for "no reason" and it turned out that Jaz was voting for the same reason as Rummy.
This runoff actually turned into a blessing in disguise because as I said earlier, when i am under fire, it is easier to sort roles. I was looking for who stretched logic and tripped. I was still thinking Jimmy was mafia but when he woke up and started posting that feeling dissipated very quickly. Given where I stood, I knew he would vote for me, making it 5 v 4. That left a pool of Danbob, Carini, Zig, & Potent for me to look as I did not think it was likely that 3 mafia had stacked on me. The lone exception was Jaz who was playing very quiet. He was a weird player to use the emotion card and it stuck out to me, so I added him back to the pool of potential 3rds.
Danbob, your posts about post counts, how you did it, and what the outcome was really rang out as town to me. In addition, I appreciated your research and felt that if you had mafia coaching you, you would be researching less. These may seem like arbitrary reasons but there were half a dozen posts I could quote that just rang "townie".
That left me Carini, ZIG, Potent, & Jaz. Remember, I was avoiding Rummy at all costs and I will come back to her in a minute. Carini has been a black hole, but he really does not ever post much of substance. He is one of those players that I wonder why they ever play because I don't feel winning by not playing is a strategy. Regardless, I knew nothing about him and said so. I figured we could sort him out later.
Potent was probing down the same logic paths as I was and saw the votes on me for what they were. As I said this shaded him towards town for me. ZIG has said I cleared him but I absolutely did not. I just said shaded to town. Shading can change.
Jaz was conflicted. Again, the emotional vote but I thought it was a weird vote for him to have placed. He sat in the same spot as Carini albeit for a different reason. I figured we could sort him later and then decide.
That left me with ZIG. ZIG actually was the least suspicious of this group until his vote for me to move it to 6 v 4. In doing so, he abandoned his "Last 4" rule (which he goes back to later on and cites as support for suspicion of others) and did it solely to take the control out of anyone else's hands. (something he tried to do last night as well). I honestly didn't build a giant case against him at that point, but he immediately moved into 3rd.
Finally, there was Rummy. As I said, I was giving her a wide berth, and was looking for other people to help sort her if I was wrong. I figured if she ended up being mafia, I would be able to hopefully give the town 2 names and they could figure out an understandable blind spot. If people have fault my logic for her, please remember that I am actually a human being and in real life, I tend to be a pretty nice one.
When things looked grim, I tried to again highlight the emotional votes and slip through, but obviously, I failed there. Given what had gone on and where i was, I decided to come out and post what I knew and what I thought. The Above is how I got to my Mike D, SFA, and Pool of ZIG, Carini, Jaz and the comments on others. I have to admit, I am pretty happy to have hit on all 3 in the first round even if ZIG was just 1 of 3. Knowing where Mike stood made it a lot easier though. It was a very pleasant surprise when they let me live and confirm SFA. Mike had been setting it up for me to live, but I did not think he would go through with it. Given who the 3rd ended up being, I think I hit way too close to home and made them very nervous. The only post I am going to quote for this post is this one I made prior to ZIG's fake because it is critical to the conversation.
Finally had the chance to get in front of my computer and read everything over a few times and here are my thoughts.
I am really surprised that Mike or SFA have not tried to fake at this point. Mike set it up at the end of D1 and given the natural level of distaste and distrust has for me, it would have had a good chance to succeed. The only reason I can see is that they were trying to run the table and get the win in Day 3. But you would have to think that given the tone now, they would think that window is closing or closed.
I debated posting a more in depth post, but I have decided against it. I am rethinking something and want to watch this play out a bit. I potentially will share prior to the day closing if I think it is safe to do so, but right now, I am trying to keep my thoughts a black hole. The only thing I will say is that they have to feel their 3rd is well hidden to have even tried this.
I will continue to answer any questions anyone has. It is not easy to hold my tongue on some of the bullshit flying, but it has been informative...
At this point, I was rethinking whether ZIG was the 3rd and whether to guess him. In fact, I was considering asking about KDogg or Danbob because I was thinking I had to be wrong if they were still going without faking. My thinking was that I would either 1, be whacked and people would think zig, and they felt they had a shot day 5, 2, would be allowed to live and they could whack at random and further discredit me. Those were the only reasons I could see them still going down the path they were on, and I had actually typed up a decent post outlining this, but I deleted it so as to hide the thinking. That proved to be one of the best things I could have done, as ZIG faked a few hours later and gave me the 3rd name.
I have thought about this a bunch even though I was busy this weekend, but in retrospect, putting myself in their shoes, it makes sense. They waited too long to come back and fake themselves and knew that it would be a tough sell to the town. Had they opened the day and faked, it may have worked, but pride comes before the fall as they say. So they had to use the 3rd and try to compete it out so that Mike or SFA could come back later in the game. Mike has a lot fewer aberrant posts in the game and he is an unknown to more people, so again, it makes sense that they chose to sacrifice SFA.
I will be asking about ZIG night 2 but it is clear to me that he is the 3rd. Sorry for the wall of text here. I have been trying to avoid these and just answer questions but it was asked for. This took me almost 3 hours to type up, hence why I could not / would not do it yesterday, and I am sorry if it raised the suspicion level. Moving on to the second part here in a second, but may not be able to finish it and will not get to the 3rd part until later this afternoon as I have meetings starting in 45 minutes. But really trying guys. This was still a semi-abridged version.
This may sound awful but does it even matter at this point if we kill the wrong inspector? They both claim to know two or all of mafia. There's not much more information the town can get (and not to mention the confusion it will add). The only downside would obviously be the fact we are killing a townie.
KDogg, I'm in for the theory. I think we have 4 of us that I feel comfortable calling town at this point: you, me, Dan808 , and Rummy 500 . What do we need to do? Runoff between Viking and ZIG?
You realize that if you kill of the wrong inspector this round that you are giving the Mafia the ability to win it on Day 3...
Come on people. You guys you can't even decide on a fake inspector, now you want to believe Kdogg that there is a double fake inspector...It seems odd to me that Kdogg, who most people think is town, is the one driving where this round is going. And let's not forget who brought up a double fake inspector to begin with...SFA, the one person double accused....
Thanks for pointing that out.
You act like this is easy to tell from a townie's perspective who has no knowledge whatsoever of what's going on other than what has been posted in the thread. I'm trying to read your reveal again in detail, but I have such distaste for Star Wars that it's making it very difficult.
KDogg, I'm in for the theory. I think we have 4 of us that I feel comfortable calling town at this point: you, me, Dan808, and Rummy 500. What do we need to do? Runoff between Viking and ZIG?
You realize that if you kill of the wrong inspector this round that you are giving the Mafia the ability to win it on Day 3...
Come on people. You guys you can't even decide on a fake inspector, now you want to believe Kdogg that there is a double fake inspector...It seems odd to me that Kdogg, who most people think is town, is the one driving where this round is going. And let's not forget who brought up a double fake inspector to begin with...SFA, the one person double accused....
Interesting that you continue to want to end this as fast as possible and take control here ZIG. The next post I make should be fun for you.
This may sound awful but does it even matter at this point if we kill the wrong inspector? They both claim to know two or all of mafia. There's not much more information the town can get (and not to mention the confusion it will add). The only downside would obviously be the fact we are killing a townie.
It does not matter if you kill me aside from killing your inspector, but ZIG has left it open ended to give him some outs after Night 2 and create confusion. In theory, he could say he guessed whoever he wanted so that it leaves them options the next few days. They could also pick who to target later on once they know where everyone stands.
Also, by clearing townies, he creates allies because he "confirmed" that they are town. It is a mental thing, but it makes people feel he is being more honest even though in essence, I have confirmed everyone is town. By demonstrating fallibility, he is trying to make himself seem more "real" and creates a bit more confusion. That is why it does matter at this point.
