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Seems there is comfort in JR or Pablo being voted off. I was expecting some movement from someone else when I changed to Pablo.
I wouldn't expect mafia to so blatantly save another. Zig and I almost lost Mafia 102 (townie and inspector) over him making a similar move because it was seen as so shady.
Seems there is comfort in JR or Pablo being voted off. I was expecting some movement from someone else when I changed to Pablo.
I wouldn't expect mafia to so blatantly save another. Zig and I almost lost Mafia 102 (townie and inspector) over him making a similar move because it was seen as so shady.
I think this is why there isn't any movement, but that's sadly not much of an indicator in one direction or the other
Seems there is comfort in JR or Pablo being voted off. I was expecting some movement from someone else when I changed to Pablo.
How do you figure that? I'm more likely to be voted off at this point, aren't I?
Depends on how much movement there is now and where the votes land. The reality is that it is almost ALWAYS townies who end up as the last 2 and 3 players in first round run-offs, but we all know that. Let us see what happens in the next 24 hours.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
These are the two most note worthy moves imo. I'm looking at these from mafia perspective (all of y'all are liars from what I can tell, so really not looking at anyone's justifications).
Potent is first player stacked. Instead of stacking someone else Zolah stacks to him. When the three stack happened last game, a player who had already voted (which is the important difference) put a player from a 2-vote-4-way runoff into a 3 vote standalone (another difference), in this instance however, a move is made on the player who started the three stack, leaving a 3-vote-2-way, before evening out. Looking at it again, it seems to be a move to hope someone moves off of potent, not vote another player into a 3-vote-2-way, and almost back fired.
Then we have a four way with Potent-Zolah-Dan-JR, and Pablo pushes to a five way with LLL. I drop Dan out to even things back to 2-vote-4-way. ZIG and Carini decide Pablo's move warranted him being in the runoff.
So for me its coming down to, was Potent saved in the first day after being stacked quickly, or was Pablo trying to help mask mafia in the runoff?
Either seems kind of far fetched just because Zolah got three stacked and Pablo got thrown in the runoff, but if Potent doesn't randomly get stacked right away you don't need to do that. I think there is an argument to be made that Pablo should have known what a 5-way runoff meant for concealing mafia, and maybe had he put together a more fluid explanation he wouldn't be in the runoff.
Yes, one or both could be town, but if they're both town losing either one is a bummer and something we can't really stop at this point.
if he's mafia, the 5 way and the "tainted what do you think?" seem like ways to deflect attention. if he's town, the snark and the casting doubt on multiple people early while making a weird move doesn't help town (see ZIG last game).
Post by piggy pablo on Aug 9, 2017 14:40:37 GMT -5
Don't be sorry. At this point it's better for Town if I die. You have no way of knowing that I'm Town or whether Potent is Mafia. If I survived, there's been enough chatter around me already that Mafia could use me as a pawn or the Inspector might guess me, which would be detrimental to the cause.
I did what I did because I hoped it would get the Inspector some more material to sift through and get a good guess. As best as I can tell, if we don't get a two-name reveal as Town, we're pretty much lost.
I think people overreacted to my move somewhat. It was always an option for ZIG to move off LLL and that's exactly what happened. My move had no consequence initially, but was used to justify Danbob falling out and myself getting put in. I think Carini's move was pretty hypocritical, but whatever. Hopefully my move still has the effect I intended. If I survive, there is less chance of that happening.
Tainted never explained what he thought was worse about what I did than what Zolah did. I was hoping he might have had something to say about how putting a vote on someone who was clearly in the runoff might have been a way of avoiding giving too much information in her vote. The counter is that she drew attention to herself, although not as much as I drew to myself. Who knows right now. I didn't think that shading Zolah would help at the time. People already had their minds made up that what I did was wrong and everyone pretty much had an opinion on my move and not so much on hers. It would not have helped me to stay alive.
When LLL voted for me, that was a death sentence. It also gave us less information to work with. Potent would obviously not vote for himself, and it was pretty clear Maddog was going to vote for me as well.
I'm not saying anyone in particular is Mafia. I'm just giving my thoughts while I'm still in the game. Listen to them if you want. I assume most of you could give a shit what I think.
Post by LoveLuckLaughter on Aug 9, 2017 16:33:27 GMT -5
Anyone else have any thoughts here on how the run-off fleshed out?
Pablo, I voted for you because I feel like JR is an easy Townie for Mafia to get into a run-off and then stack on. Out of the last three games, he was one of the last two players in the first round run-off 2/3 times. The only time he wasn't, he was Mafia, because Mafia has all of the power here in the beginning. A townie is almost always going to die in day one, but we make it easier for Mafia by continuing to allow the same players to always end up in run-offs or allowing the same players to always be voted out early (ie, Rummy). Those players become the "go to" for Mafia stacking. I don't care about "information" on one additional player when it is obvious that the same players are being voted for every single round, of every game, allowing Mafia to sit back and not have to work and end up revealing themselves. I think that you and Potent are better choices for this run-off because of that, but I couldn't vote for Potent because he was already headed to the last run-off. I am not stuck on voting for you. I find both you and Potent to have piqued my first round interests, mainly because you two mirrored one another with the "LLL skating through" BS. Because I never skate through a game usually. I am usually under scrutiny, or lynched or whacked pretty early. So I found both of you using the same sound bite, and one that is utter BS, to be suspicious. Not saying that either of you are Mafia at all, just saying that the statement gave me a certain feeling.
That being said, I am open to moving things around.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
Post by LoveLuckLaughter on Aug 9, 2017 16:51:42 GMT -5
piggy pablo. I should also note that I found your playing impressive last game. Even if it didn't end with a win for the town. I also think Potent is a very good player. So I don't think it is necessarily by accident that you two ended up as one of the last three players in the run-off either. I'm sure besides looking for an easy Townie to off, Mafia is looking to off good players early, given the chance. Part of the reason we wanted Jaz out early last game. He is quiet at first but is really good at putting things together.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
Post by piggy pablo on Aug 9, 2017 22:58:21 GMT -5
LLL: I probably shouldn't have parroted what Potent said. That was lazy phrasing. What I meant was, and I hope I clarified this somewhat since, that when Dan asked me why I chose to stack you to put you in the runoff, that that was a choice between you and Maddog as to whom I would stack. I think that choice is kind of a no-brainer. I'm more confident in my ability to read Maddog after seeing how he played as Mafia last game, because I saw how his logic was sort of confused and I just gave him too much of a pass on some of it.
I think you are a more dangerous player. "Skate by" is a bit of an exaggeration, because you're right: you do get whacked and lynched early, etc, from what I can tell. Town failed last game in part by not scrutinizing you more. If you make it past the first day or two, that might be a bit of a yellow flag. Also, the whack pretty much pointed at you, but we were too busy getting distracted by other things and just generally not talking the way we should have. Some of that may have been my fault. So, again, you're right. The "skating by" is not a trend. It was indeed one game.
Sunday afternoon I was a little bored, like I said, and I thought I'd liven things up by pushing the runoff to five. I didn't really know how players would react. Part of it was purely curiosity. I knew it was rare to have a 5-way runoff, and I didn't really think too much of doing it. I've also gone from hating unconventional play in my early games and wanting to nail a Mafia member on Day 1 to believing that doing so is almost always going to be a coincidence if it happens. With three Mafia members manipulating the runoffs, it's more than a coincidence. It's almost a miracle. So I probably over-corrected and got an idea in my head that it's all about Inspector play and we have to give the Inspector as much as he or she can to work with so that we can get a solid reveal and start lynching Mafia on Day 2 or 3. I hope that what I've done so far in this game was helpful to the Inspector and the rest of Town, but I also wonder if it just confused things.
So that's where I'm at. I don't expect anyone to save me and I'm not asking anyone to. I know I'm Town and, from my perspective, Potent has about a 30% chance of being Mafia at this point. Maybe less, because I wouldn't put him in my top 3 Mafia suspects as of right now. But again, it's early. We're probably going to lynch a Townie in Day 1 and that's not the end of the world for Town. Even despite myself knowing I am Town and Potent having a non-zero chance of being Mafia, I go back and forth thinking that the risk of him being Mafia might be outweighed by the focus on me that could bog Town down in the rest of this game. What I'm getting at is I've considered voting for myself if someone tried to save me.
Carini: I feel like I've covered that. You pushed a runoff to five because I pushed a runoff to five. My move had no effect on the composition of the runoff. Yours did. You're well within your right to do that, and that may be a smart move, but it is, I think, somewhat hypocrotical.
LLL: I probably shouldn't have parroted what Potent said. That was lazy phrasing. What I meant was, and I hope I clarified this somewhat since, that when Dan asked me why I chose to stack you to put you in the runoff, that that was a choice between you and Maddog as to whom I would stack. I think that choice is kind of a no-brainer. I'm more confident in my ability to read Maddog after seeing how he played as Mafia last game, because I saw how his logic was sort of confused and I just gave him too much of a pass on some of it.
I think you are a more dangerous player. "Skate by" is a bit of an exaggeration, because you're right: you do get whacked and lynched early, etc, from what I can tell. Town failed last game in part by not scrutinizing you more. If you make it past the first day or two, that might be a bit of a yellow flag. Also, the whack pretty much pointed at you, but we were too busy getting distracted by other things and just generally not talking the way we should have. Some of that may have been my fault. So, again, you're right. The "skating by" is not a trend. It was indeed one game.
Sunday afternoon I was a little bored, like I said, and I thought I'd liven things up by pushing the runoff to five. I didn't really know how players would react. Part of it was purely curiosity. I knew it was rare to have a 5-way runoff, and I didn't really think too much of doing it. I've also gone from hating unconventional play in my early games and wanting to nail a Mafia member on Day 1 to believing that doing so is almost always going to be a coincidence if it happens. With three Mafia members manipulating the runoffs, it's more than a coincidence. It's almost a miracle. So I probably over-corrected and got an idea in my head that it's all about Inspector play and we have to give the Inspector as much as he or she can to work with so that we can get a solid reveal and start lynching Mafia on Day 2 or 3. I hope that what I've done so far in this game was helpful to the Inspector and the rest of Town, but I also wonder if it just confused things.
So that's where I'm at. I don't expect anyone to save me and I'm not asking anyone to. I know I'm Town and, from my perspective, Potent has about a 30% chance of being Mafia at this point. Maybe less, because I wouldn't put him in my top 3 Mafia suspects as of right now. But again, it's early. We're probably going to lynch a Townie in Day 1 and that's not the end of the world for Town. Even despite myself knowing I am Town and Potent having a non-zero chance of being Mafia, I go back and forth thinking that the risk of him being Mafia might be outweighed by the focus on me that could bog Town down in the rest of this game. What I'm getting at is I've considered voting for myself if someone tried to save me.
Carini: I feel like I've covered that. You pushed a runoff to five because I pushed a runoff to five. My move had no effect on the composition of the runoff. Yours did. You're well within your right to do that, and that may be a smart move, but it is, I think, somewhat hypocrotical.
Who would you say is your most suspicious at this point? I definitely think that's it's a little suspicious that your vote was blown so out of proportion (yes I know I made a comment on it). That combined with the silence right now makes me lean town on you.
Post by piggy pablo on Aug 9, 2017 23:34:46 GMT -5
It just seems like I'm a dead man walking and that casting aspersions is not going to be very beneficial to Town at this point. Say I do fall out and now I've said who I think might be Mafia. I'll be about the only person to name names like that, save maybe a few people grumbling about Potent or Zolah. At that point I could be whacked, whether because I'm onto something, or worse, because I was wrong and now I'm being used as a misdirection. I've already expressed my concern about how I might already be getting used by Mafia to craft a narrative and that I certainly think I will be in the future.
Carini: I feel like I've covered that. You pushed a runoff to five because I pushed a runoff to five. My move had no effect on the composition of the runoff. Yours did. You're well within your right to do that, and that may be a smart move, but it is, I think, somewhat hypocrotical.
I personally don't care what the # is for a day 1 runoff, 3, 4, or 5 are all ok with me. What I want is the right people in to the best of our ability
Bottom line is I read your move to be a possible cover for a mafia in the runoff so I wanted you in also. You half assed an accusation for reasons known only to you, I saw something I found suspicious and I acted. I did figure someone would take it down to 4 after I put you in and that data will potentially also come in handy
Wow it's quiet. I feel like there was something up with the movement in round 1 with the 5 ways, but I'm not sure what to make of it yet. Round 1 was a mosh pit. Ever since it's been like the tortoise in The Tortoise and the Hare.
Wow it's quiet. I feel like there was something up with the movement in round 1 with the 5 ways, but I'm not sure what to make of it yet. Round 1 was a mosh pit. Ever since it's been like the tortoise in The Tortoise and the Hare.
I did a reread last night and didn't really get a vibe either way on Potent or Pablo. The silence is obviously telling at this point.
If we were a little farther away from the deadline, a switch would have maybe driven some interesting conversations, but at this point in the game, I don't think anyone wants to do that in fear of looking suspicious.
Tainted never explained what he thought was worse about what I did than what Zolah did.
I can't speak for Tainted, but I think the difference is that I shook it up before things were formed, and you shook it up after we already had a 4 way moving forward. Not casting shade at you... Just trying to answer your question.
What's interesting to me is that Pablo has received the decisive vote in each round.
D1R1 Carini > Pablo (not counting Maddog's throwaway vote after this one as decisive)
D1R2 Taint > Pablo
D1R3 LLL > Pablo
D1R4 Maddog > Pablo
This is indeed interesting. Similarly, in both R2 and R3, the order of votes went first to JR, then to Potent, then to Pablo. I think this is worth noting because it's common for Mafia to employ two strategies: vote early to get the runoff shaped how you want it, or vote late so you can make more deciding votes.
So we have JR consistently being voted for first in runoffs, and Pablo consistently being voted for last. That feels a little too coincidental to me.
Wow it's quiet. I feel like there was something up with the movement in round 1 with the 5 ways, but I'm not sure what to make of it yet. Round 1 was a mosh pit. Ever since it's been like the tortoise in The Tortoise and the Hare.
Honestly, I think it is because we had 2 Mafia in there and they were trying to expand it. I could be wrong. But that is why Pablo ended up with my vote even though I don't usually make moves like that. I didn't want JR to be voted off AGAIN when it is obvious how much flex we had when he was Mafia to keep him out of a first day run-off and he falls into them every other time for the last games. I assume if JR ends up in a first day run-off by the end of the round, he is either town or has shitty Mafia partners working with him.
It could be townies doing things that townies don't usually do, trying to make the game a little more exciting. But it was a strange move and noteworthy.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
