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I'm about to go run but I had a thought... Why did Maddog throw a little "aww man, so much for my reveal" tantrum? If he was town, he hurt the town. If he was mafia, I would think it would be better to go out quietly and let town stumble in every direction... I feel like it was on purpose... possibly for some mega distancing.
Yeah. This is one of the biggest WTFs ever. It provided us with direction that we don't usually get this early in the game. It seems like a Mafia move, but not a good one. It provided us with a name and direction, when we otherwise would have just thought he was like every other Day one lynch, and we all know they are almost always a townie. I understand that the round ended earlier than planned, but Tainted clearly told him he has a few minutes, and he posted within those minutes. If, on the off chance he was Inspector, why not come out? If he was going to fake, why didn't he just fake? Why give town so much direction like that? If he was a Townie, why misdirect his own team that much?
My assumption initially is that if Maddog was Mafia, his two partners were voting for you. Zolah - 4 (Carini, Maddog, Jaz, Potent, LLL) I realize that it puts suspicion on me as well, but it is what it is. But this is why I was thinking that Jaz's vote change and the mention of Potent and Carini by LD, who ended up being whacked, held the most meaning. I'm not going to let go of that line of thinking, because it makes the most sense to me. Potent especially, and then Carini and Jaz. Potent already had 2 votes on him this round, so I went with one of the other two.
But maybe it wasn't a complete f-up by Mafia to "give us direction". If it was a purposeful distancing, then we are maybe looking at the wrong group and should be looking for at least one in those distancing from Maddog, either through posts, or by voting for him. Maddog - 5 (Dan, SFA, Pablo, Zolah, LD, JR) Obviously not LD. I still find that the moves by Maddog and Zolah make it less likely it would be her, but not clearing anyone. And JR doesn't fall off of the suspicion list, but he does fall to the side of the spectrum. I had initial thoughts about the SFA and LD connection, with how strong they were on Maddog in the first Day, which is unusual for town or Inspector really. Obviously Mafia thought that LD said something else that made them more concerned about him than SFA. But we only have one Inspector, not two, so to have two people on Maddog so hard in the first day is noteworthy.
I don't know. That post included a lot of thoughts and was probably not very well organized. I guess every possibility should be entertained given how janky of a move it was by Maddog.
We're all a mess of paradoxes. Believing in things we know can't be true. We walk around carrying feelings too complicated and contradictory to express. But when it all becomes too big, and words aren't enough to help get it all out, there's always music.
I think that Jaz and Potent are a good start to the runoff. In the interest of a runoff I'm gonna add Pablo. As I said he's been less active and then he blows up on me for pointing it out. I'm not saying that I think he's mafia but I definitely think he deserves a closer look. I'm interested to see where potent puts his votes as I'm suspicious of him as well after the whack.
As for why Mad Dog decided to throw us off with a "reveal" I think it was nothing meant to confuse us (similar to what I did last game when my fake failed). I think it would be a waste of time to consider why he did it.
As for why Mad Dog decided to throw us off with a "reveal" I think it was nothing meant to confuse us (similar to what I did last game when my fake failed). I think it would be a waste of time to consider why he did it.
This is different. Your "reveal" was when you were called out for saving me on day 2 (it was 2 or 3, but pretty sure it was 2). His little fit was on way out in day 1. Everyone would have assumed he was town had he went without that tidbit (because let's face it, it's usually a townie to die on day 1). To say it's a waste of time to even consider it doesn't sound like you're being a townie with an open mind. Sure, maybe it's wrong. But a waste of time?
As for why Mad Dog decided to throw us off with a "reveal" I think it was nothing meant to confuse us (similar to what I did last game when my fake failed). I think it would be a waste of time to consider why he did it.
This is different. Your "reveal" was when you were called out for saving me on day 2 (it was 2 or 3, but pretty sure it was 2). His little fit was on way out in day 1. Everyone would have assumed he was town had he went without that tidbit (because let's face it, it's usually a townie to die on day 1). To say it's a waste of time to even consider it doesn't sound like you're being a townie with an open mind. Sure, maybe it's wrong. But a waste of time?
Fair points. My point is mainly that I think he did it to create confusion and distract town from more concrete discussion.
As for why Mad Dog decided to throw us off with a "reveal" I think it was nothing meant to confuse us (similar to what I did last game when my fake failed). I think it would be a waste of time to consider why he did it.
What are the possibilities? Am I missing something? He either did it because he's (the worst EVAR) inspector, (the worst EVAR) townie, or mafia. Whether he did it for distancing or whatever is irrelevant, I think we got a mafia D1.
As for why Mad Dog decided to throw us off with a "reveal" I think it was nothing meant to confuse us (similar to what I did last game when my fake failed). I think it would be a waste of time to consider why he did it.
What are the possibilities? Am I missing something? He either did it because he's (the worst EVAR) inspector, (the worst EVAR) townie, or mafia. Whether he did it for distancing or whatever is irrelevant, I think we got a mafia D1.
As for why Mad Dog decided to throw us off with a "reveal" I think it was nothing meant to confuse us (similar to what I did last game when my fake failed). I think it would be a waste of time to consider why he did it.
What are the possibilities? Am I missing something? He either did it because he's (the worst EVAR) inspector, (the worst EVAR) townie, or mafia. Whether he did it for distancing or whatever is irrelevant, I think we got a mafia D1.
I think we got mafia too. But my question is, why would he practically out himself on his way out? He didn't give anyone actual doubt that he was inspector. Puh-lease. It appears he wanted to be known as mafia... Okay. Why? I feel like someone has good cover with that info out in the open.
As for why Mad Dog decided to throw us off with a "reveal" I think it was nothing meant to confuse us (similar to what I did last game when my fake failed). I think it would be a waste of time to consider why he did it.
What are the possibilities? Am I missing something? He either did it because he's (the worst EVAR) inspector, (the worst EVAR) townie, or mafia. Whether he did it for distancing or whatever is irrelevant, I think we got a mafia D1.
No one is disputing that we got a Mafia D1. Now what? There are two other Mafia. We don't win the game unless we get those, too.
I think it's worth talking out. Maddog played weird all game in a way that doesn't really make sense at face value. First vote, switch to Zolah, and straight up telling us he's Mafia. Consistently throughout the game he made moves at interesting times, and his most influential, later moves were right up against deadlines. I think it's possible that Maddog's initial vote was bungled, that the narrative Mafia were trying to construct got confused in his post, and that after that Maddog had to be the fall guy whenever something weird needed to be done, including his reveal that he was Mafia.
I also think there's a good possibility that we've got a Mafia voter on Maddog at the end of Day 1, as mentioned by LLL. He was playing pretty erratically. I'd be somewhat surprised if both other Mafia had his back or tried to save him at all. This could include me, but these are my thoughts and I want to get them out there.
I have to think LD said something that scared mafia into thinking he had a name. LD dropped a lot of hints about a lot of people, so who's trail were they afraid he was on, besides Maddog?
Summary of LD's actions as they concern the accusation of others:
Suggests pushing Potent into runoff
Calls out Maddog as making a mafia move (good call!)
Claims MVP if two of Potent, Carini and Maddog are mafia
Claims at least one or two mafia have been playing for years. Technically, I've been playing for years at this point, but I assume he's going back further. So here are people who have been playing longer than me: Jaz, Carini, Potent, LLL, and SFA
One or two of the remaining three voters is probably mafia, that would be, Potent, LLL, and JR.
So, in summary, here's how many times he's made some degree of accusation that I see: Maddog several times Potent four times Carini twice
LLL twice SFA once Jaz once JR once
I'd most like to see Potent, followed by Carini, followed by LLL in a runoff based on this. Carini over LLL because he actually called him by name. If no one follows my vote I'll switch to LLL.
Post by potentpotables on Sept 6, 2017 17:49:54 GMT -5
I'm sitting here writing a post with my thoughts and a vote but JR vote switch is making me rethink this. My full post will come as soon as I can, I'm trying to cook dinner, draft a fantasy football team, and play all at the same time.
Maddog comments that are sticking out to me on a reread...
He supported Potent's vote change when others questioned it and didn't want to throw him to the wolves
Was happy keeping a stack on Jaz because Jaz created the first stack
Called LD's vote on Potent a panic move
Calls out LD for trying to get Potent in a runoff "for no reason"
Am I alone in thinking it makes sense that LD had Potent's name, after Maddog defended Potent a couple times LD turned his attention to Maddog? Even if LD wasn't inspector, it would be a fair assumption that a Potent/Maddog pair would come to the same conclusion and whack him.
If my summary lists are an issue I can spam quotes, or stick them at the end behind a spoiler.
I'd like to dedicate enough time to read into each player, but I haven't had it yet. Without digging too far in, I think LD was a strange whack. I mentioned I doubt he's the inspector, so mafia must have seen something I didn't. I'm going to find time to dig into this today, but for now, the two players that have raised yellow flags to me the most are Danbob and Pablo. Not a throw away vote, but I may change it if I can manage to get my head around the game a little better.
JR > Pablo
I'm not clearing Pablo, but he's fallen down on my interest list.
Maddog comments that are sticking out to me on a reread...
He supported Potent's vote change when others questioned it and didn't want to throw him to the wolves
Was happy keeping a stack on Jaz because Jaz created the first stack
Called LD's vote on Potent a panic move
Calls out LD for trying to get Potent in a runoff "for no reason"
Am I alone in thinking it makes sense that LD had Potent's name, after Maddog defended Potent a couple times LD turned his attention to Maddog? Even if LD wasn't inspector, it would be a fair assumption that a Potent/Maddog pair would come to the same conclusion and whack him.
If my summary lists are an issue I can spam quotes, or stick them at the end behind a spoiler.
yeah, I think Potent or Maddog are the two obvious names if we look at who LD was pointing at.
But we should also keep in mind LD does this frequently no matter his role. Strait calling people out and/or vaguely hinting he knows more than he actually does. I say this because it reinforces that mafia had to feel very strongly that he actual was inspector.
Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Sept 6, 2017 19:05:33 GMT -5
The flip side is were the mafia weighing their options or did they ser an LD whack as both their best shot as inspector and also a chance to set someone up.
Post by potentpotables on Sept 6, 2017 19:10:38 GMT -5
In doing some research for my vote, I've come across these numbers:
Since Mafia 92
92 - LD is inspector 93 - LD is mafia 94 - didn't play 95 - LD is mafia 96 - LD is inspector 97 - DNP 98 - DNP 99 - DNP 100 - LD is mafia 101 - LD is inspector 102 - LD is TOWN!!! Holy shit! 103 - DNP 104 - LD is inspector 105 - DNP 106 - ???
This is a set of 15 games. It is an arbitrary number to look at. But he has played 9 of 15, and in 7 of the 8 that he played in that are finished, he had special roles. This is an astounding run. To be inspector in 4 of the 8 games he's played is incredible.
Now, the mafia wants us to believe he is inspector again. I understand that all of us have the same chance of being inspector when names are drawn for the game, but to be inspector as often as he is defies belief.
As for why Mad Dog decided to throw us off with a "reveal" I think it was nothing meant to confuse us (similar to what I did last game when my fake failed). I think it would be a waste of time to consider why he did it.
This is different. Your "reveal" was when you were called out for saving me on day 2 (it was 2 or 3, but pretty sure it was 2). His little fit was on way out in day 1. Everyone would have assumed he was town had he went without that tidbit (because let's face it, it's usually a townie to die on day 1). To say it's a waste of time to even consider it doesn't sound like you're being a townie with an open mind. Sure, maybe it's wrong. But a waste of time?
maybe not a waste of time but it is dangerous. Cause i'm a townie and i'd be first on the chopping block if everyone follows down the path this theory puts out.
That would leave you three rounds to get two mafia. While being on the wrong trail and possible getting no more info from the inspector. What are the options vote off everyone that went against the known mafia? We would almost certainly lose if we do that.
In doing some research for my vote, I've come across these numbers:
Since Mafia 92
92 - LD is inspector 93 - LD is mafia 94 - didn't play 95 - LD is mafia 96 - LD is inspector 97 - DNP 98 - DNP 99 - DNP 100 - LD is mafia 101 - LD is inspector 102 - LD is TOWN!!! Holy shit! 103 - DNP 104 - LD is inspector 105 - DNP 106 - ???
This is a set of 15 games. It is an arbitrary number to look at. But he has played 9 of 15, and in 7 of the 8 that he played in that are finished, he had special roles. This is an astounding run. To be inspector in 4 of the 8 games he's played is incredible.
Now, the mafia wants us to believe he is inspector again. I understand that all of us have the same chance of being inspector when names are drawn for the game, but to be inspector as often as he is defies belief.
So the only option is "mafia wants us to belive he was inspector"? It can't be mafia thought he was inspector and did the normal thing they do in round one and target him?
Strange wording. I think I see where this is going.
Post by potentpotables on Sept 6, 2017 19:30:54 GMT -5
This is where my thinking is right now:
1. I understand why people are suspicious of me in the light of LD's whack. He blatantly stated my name as a candidate for the first runoff on D1. It would be irresponsible of the town not to look at me in that light. I also know my credibility is low right now due to last game.
2. That said, I think my D1 vote switch post speaks for itself. You can plainly see what I was trying to do - switch my vote to a place where the revoters were not acting in obvious self-interest by voting for someone else.
3. The whack points to mafia thinking that LD is inspector. But, and I said this last game, tying people to the whack is a good way to break a tie if you aren't sure
4. If LD is inspector yet again, I'll probably cry. I've played/reffed almost non-stop since like Mafia 75 or 76 in the hopes of one day being inspector. I've never gotten that role. I also find it kind of hard to believe that he'd get it yet again. I'm not a statistician and I'm aware that, in a given data set of mafia, everybody has the same chance of being mafia, town, or inspector for an individual game. However, there's also the statistical probability of events in a larger data set which makes it hard for me to believe that LD is inspector yet again. Before I get shouted down by those who are better than statistics than me, I'll try to explain my thinking. When you flip a coin, you have 2 possible outcomes - heads or tails. That is true of every flip. However, that does not mean that the odds of flipping 2 heads in a row is 1 in 2. You could flip heads heads, but also heads tails, tails heads, and tails tails. It's actually 1 in 4.
5. I don't believe LD is inspector ultimately.
If we believe Maddog is mafia, why did he make the final comment he made? To distance is the only reason others can come up with. After his vote shenanigans on D1, I think the other mafia tried to distance from him as much as possible.
This leads me to be suspicious of SFA and Jaz.
Potent > SFA
He has already jumped on my post about LD's roles, and maybe I worded it poorly (because of course mafia wants to whack the inspector). I fully expect to be the lynch today, so I'll try my best to provide info to the town before I die.
I have also stated recently my belief that shaping a D2 runoff is the most important part of the game, this is where games are made or broken. I hope townies will take a look again and reconsider positions on my status but I don't see that happening.
The flip side is were the mafia weighing their options or did they ser an LD whack as both their best shot as inspector and also a chance to set someone up.
I'm trying to keep this in mind as well. It shot me in the foot last game when mafia whacked the townie trying to kill mafia (LLL on Potent) and left the townie trying to kill townie (me on ZIG). It seemed obvious that they were trying to make me switch to Potent, but I was too smart for them! Doh...
1. I understand why people are suspicious of me in the light of LD's whack. He blatantly stated my name as a candidate for the first runoff on D1. It would be irresponsible of the town not to look at me in that light. I also know my credibility is low right now due to last game.
2. That said, I think my D1 vote switch post speaks for itself. You can plainly see what I was trying to do - switch my vote to a place where the revoters were not acting in obvious self-interest by voting for someone else.
3. The whack points to mafia thinking that LD is inspector. But, and I said this last game, tying people to the whack is a good way to break a tie if you aren't sure
4. If LD is inspector yet again, I'll probably cry. I've played/reffed almost non-stop since like Mafia 75 or 76 in the hopes of one day being inspector. I've never gotten that role. I also find it kind of hard to believe that he'd get it yet again. I'm not a statistician and I'm aware that, in a given data set of mafia, everybody has the same chance of being mafia, town, or inspector for an individual game. However, there's also the statistical probability of events in a larger data set which makes it hard for me to believe that LD is inspector yet again. Before I get shouted down by those who are better than statistics than me, I'll try to explain my thinking. When you flip a coin, you have 2 possible outcomes - heads or tails. That is true of every flip. However, that does not mean that the odds of flipping 2 heads in a row is 1 in 2. You could flip heads heads, but also heads tails, tails heads, and tails tails. It's actually 1 in 4.
5. I don't believe LD is inspector ultimately.
If we believe Maddog is mafia, why did he make the final comment he made? To distance is the only reason others can come up with. After his vote shenanigans on D1, I think the other mafia tried to distance from him as much as possible.
This leads me to be suspicious of SFA and Jaz.
Potent > SFA
He has already jumped on my post about LD's roles, and maybe I worded it poorly (because of course mafia wants to whack the inspector). I fully expect to be the lynch today, so I'll try my best to provide info to the town before I die.
I have also stated recently my belief that shaping a D2 runoff is the most important part of the game, this is where games are made or broken. I hope townies will take a look again and reconsider positions on my status but I don't see that happening.
The best defense for you, I think, is that Maddog outed himself because it made you look guilty.
It does feel awfully convenient if 2 mafia are among Potent, LLL and/or Carini.
