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But people who post more are going to come across as more suspicious regardless. If they're wrong about anyone, than that person will be suspicious of them.they're already suspicious of that person (ie me and you last game, while much quieter mafia slipped through)
I want to be clear to zig if pablo is telling the truth that, this is essentially whats going on here. again my vote of jr was independent from viking. my who dropped in and out thing was pretty quickly accepted by jaz, and that makes it seem like he was trying to spin the narrative to you. I did make the point that I thought it could easily be mafia constantly getting the votes to where the same three people revoted (the two of pablo/potent/zig thing).
I just don't see how me making all those posts this AM about how i didn't want jaz re voting, making posts about looking at quiet players not ZIG/Zolah/Viking, and that back and forth with dan about how just because jaz hasn't said anything suspicious doesn't mean he isn't makes sense with me with jaz.
Post by piggy pablo on Jan 1, 2018 19:58:51 GMT -5
I'll do another read of today's posts, but the last time I looked at page 19 I thought you looked pretty bad. Not trying to get tunnelvision, but when ZIG said Jaz-Viking-Maddog and I had already thought about posting it, I felt like I needed to pipe up.
I'll do another read of today's posts, but the last time I looked at page 19 I thought you looked pretty bad. Not trying to get tunnelvision, but when ZIG said Jaz-Viking-Maddog and I had already thought about posting it, I felt like I needed to pipe up.
As I said, i would like to see what Jaz has to say. I had read you as town, and you are in no trouble so timing wise it seems right, but there are a few things that you said that feel off to me, so I want to reread
I do think zig has been a little over aggressive on me for 'agreeing' with Viking. I feel like I've left plenty of little bits about not being on board with him all the way. I voted for jr because he was being a dick, town doesnt need people being dicks. My vote for zolah was a random first vote and I haven't said anything really about pushing her through. In hindsight yeah I should have made the late switch to jaz but zig was starting to tie me in with people I've been questioning.
FWIW, I am torn believing him or not. Would like to see what Jaz has to say.
Less concerned about ZIG, because he has spun himself Kdogg style and not 100% on the reveal.
I'm not sure what Jaz is going to be able to do other than fake revealing, which no one would probably believe at this point. He can come in here and say he's Town, vote for me, and that's about it. His time is better spent right now in the DM thread coming up with some bullshit plot and some way for the rest of Mafia to salvage this. Coming in here and saying "I'm Town guys, you gotta believe me" isn't going to accomplish a whole lot.
I also don't know why you would be less concerned about ZIG and wishy-washy on whether I'm telling the truth. That's an awkward line of logic.
FWIW, I am torn believing him or not. Would like to see what Jaz has to say.
Less concerned about ZIG, because he has spun himself Kdogg style and not 100% on the reveal.
I'm not sure what Jaz is going to be able to do other than fake revealing, which no one would probably believe at this point. He can come in here and say he's Town, vote for me, and that's about it. His time is better spent right now in the DM thread coming up with some bullshit plot and some way for the rest of Mafia to salvage this. Coming in here and saying "I'm Town guys, you gotta believe me" isn't going to accomplish a whole lot.
I also don't know why you would be less concerned about ZIG and wishy-washy on whether I'm telling the truth. That's an awkward line of logic.
See, these are the posts that give me pause and hence why I am hesitant to come out and just say I believe you.
Everyone gets a chance to tell their own story and a chance to defend in there own way. Trying to tell me he will either fake or just say he is town discounts him as a player, limits anything we may learn from him if you are indeed right, and ultimately hurts the town.
As I said, there is a lot of reasons you could be the inspector, but there are a few things that give me a lot of pause.
FWIW, I am torn believing him or not. Would like to see what Jaz has to say.
Less concerned about ZIG, because he has spun himself Kdogg style and not 100% on the reveal.
I'm not sure what Jaz is going to be able to do other than fake revealing, which no one would probably believe at this point. He can come in here and say he's Town, vote for me, and that's about it. His time is better spent right now in the DM thread coming up with some bullshit plot and some way for the rest of Mafia to salvage this. Coming in here and saying "I'm Town guys, you gotta believe me" isn't going to accomplish a whole lot.
I also don't know why you would be less concerned about ZIG and wishy-washy on whether I'm telling the truth. That's an awkward line of logic.
Can you explain your timing a bit better? We have been in the same place since immediately after the whack with ZIG being highly suspicious. Why wait the extra few days when you could have put us on a better path? Especially considering many of us were of the opinion Tainted was the inspector, which shaped a lot of the theories.
Just got home. Obviously I'm going to say that pablo is lying and therefore Mafia, but no I don't expect any of you to take my word on that. I need to go through and reread the past two days as well as Pablo's reveal. Will be posting shortly.
FWIW, I am torn believing him or not. Would like to see what Jaz has to say.
Less concerned about ZIG, because he has spun himself Kdogg style and not 100% on the reveal.
Coming from the guy that “leaned town” on me after 3 posts, then switched to being almost certain I was Mafia. I held my opinion for most of the game and have since stuck with the same story for the rest of the game. You’ve been spouting the Kdogg nonsense all game long.
I'm not sure what Jaz is going to be able to do other than fake revealing, which no one would probably believe at this point. He can come in here and say he's Town, vote for me, and that's about it. His time is better spent right now in the DM thread coming up with some bullshit plot and some way for the rest of Mafia to salvage this. Coming in here and saying "I'm Town guys, you gotta believe me" isn't going to accomplish a whole lot.
I also don't know why you would be less concerned about ZIG and wishy-washy on whether I'm telling the truth. That's an awkward line of logic.
Can you explain your timing a bit better? We have been in the same place since immediately after the whack with ZIG being highly suspicious. Why wait the extra few days when you could have put us on a better path? Especially considering many of us were of the opinion Tainted was the inspector, which shaped a lot of the theories.
I waited because I would have rather stayed under the radar and gotten another name on Night 2. But earlier today it seemed to me like ZIG was going to get lynched, maybe without even a runoff, so I felt like I had to make a move, because I knew that he was Town.
And I feel like all of this should be pretty clear from what I already said in my response to Thor and just general knowledge of how this game works.
jaz seemed pretty intent on discrediting viking, could be distancing, but a good % of his posts were doing that. vikings vote for/off him also fits that, and I could see them being together. because despite all that he voted for zolah this round.
zolah left jaz out of her "quiet players to look at next" post, but after the whack she votes him instead of thor/zig/potent/pablo. she could have gotten her vote stuck on him in this round, remember, we were headed to a 3-way tie which would have given cover (similar scenario in 108 i believe).
there's not really a lot i see with thor/jaz tbh, but he was also 'cleared' by viking earlier in the game, and generally seemed to come around to the same ideas. he's also generally a hard read.
dan aside from defending jaz when pablo was prodding, when given the choice of putting in quiet players, he jumped on the thor train after my stab in the dark.
potent is still basically a mystery to me, which is a bad thing at this point. i guess he could have pushed jaz in when i bumped zig to three and instead replaced my vote on thor.
just before we all barrel down the me and jaz line of thinking.
The first thing that I think is important to look at when analyzing Pablo's claims is his activity before his reveal. Below is a compilation all his posts from Day 1 in which he mentions me:
Nada. He had one response to me when I asked him a question, an exchange I'll quote below in which I challenged a move he made, and that was it. I know inspectors don't always vote for their given names in Day 1, but I would find it very hard to believe that a true Inspector would say absolutely nothing in regards to their given name. If Pablo had been whacked in Night 1, what breadcrumbs would he have left for the Town? None. That is NOT Inspector play.
So since he didn't do anything in Day 1 to suggest that I might be Mafia, let's see the exchange we did have. Here was the tally in Round 3. [Actual tally at this point in the game wasn't posted, so the votes have been edited in by me. This occurred on Page 10.]
D1 R3 21. Potent > JR 22. Pablo > Danbob 23. Tainted > Danbob > Viking
Left to vote:
Ref's Notes:
Potent and Pablo had revotes to open the round. Potent voted JR. Pablo voted Danbob. Then Tainted, without explanation, switched his vote from Danbob to Viking. This was at 10:38PM, and brought the votes to the above tally. Then less than two hours later, at 12:17AM, Pablo starts to narrow our runoff down to Viking vs. JR, saying that he had no reason to believe that the two slated for the runoff would change. I challenged him on this, because I believed it was extremely premature move to basically force the runoff to two people less than two hours after a vote change, fourteen hours before the round was supposed to end. Tainted's move from Danbob to Viking was itself evidence that people were still moving their votes around, but two hours later Pablo was eager to get Danbob out of the runoff. Here was his vote and our ensuing exchange:
Why not allow that runoff to happen (and also get tainted's explanation) instead of forcing the moves early? If you think Danbob is most likely mafia of the three and prefer that he go forward, you've lowered the chances of that happening.
No moves have been forced. We have almost fourteen hours before the round ends. If anyone is thinking about moving to Dan, I can move back. I don't see it happening, though. I don't really know if anyone on JR or Viking is willing to move to Dan, because most of them haven't been speaking their minds, and one of the few who has is Dan.
I felt at the time that this was important to point out for the reason I mentioned above (Pablo's eagerness to force the runoff), but in retrospect I have a feeling that this was an attempt to throw a vote on a partner for distancing. I feel that this is likely for two reasons: 1.) Danbob has been unnecessarily defending me and my playing style. I mean, he's right - I do trend towards the quiet side, especially earlier in the game - but he defended me in multiple posts, which felt a bit too buddy-buddy.
My initial vote for Thor was a pretty random vote out of Pablo, jaz, potent, and him for being quiet. jaz taking his place is good to me, even if he hasn't made many suspect posts, it's the number I'm concerned with not the quality.
Jaz is always quiet day 1 though and his posts have been imo way more insightful and townie than Thor’s (although Thor is always a tough read for me). I still have yet to hear a legitimate reason why he should be in besides post count.
Jaz didn't have to make a single move on Day 1. He voted for Viking and sat there. That's fine, but he's never gonna have a reason to be in a runoff if he's never in a runoff, you know what I mean? He's just floating on by. Notice we haven't even heard from him since I put him in the runoff.
Same thing happened last game. That’s Jaz for you. There’s more to putting someone into the runoff than just votes though. Look at Jaz’s posts vs zigs or Thor’s. Then tell me who deserves to be in the runoff out of the “quiet people”. Not even saying we shouldn’t be aware or looking at him. I’m just trying to find a runoff group with the most suspicious people at the current moment.
This was a bit much, and it stood out to me since unless he's Mafia, Danbob shouldn't know my role and should have no reason to defend me like this. I've defended townies as a townie myself, but this was odd.
Me linking Danbob with Pablo could totally just be paranoia on my part since I'm being targeted, but it's very suspect that Danbob overly defends me, immediately switches to me after Pablo's reveal, then uses his own defense of me to bolster Pablo's fake claim:
Initial thought is to believe Pablo. He was an unknown to me and Jaz as a given name makes sense given that he was pushing me on why I didn’t want Jaz in the runoff.
This is THEN followed by Pablo painting Danbob as more of a townie:
Well, the timing of those posts does make me feel better about Dan. He loves to fake (I'm thinking of Dan, right?) and to give up the opportunity to do so so quickly sends a convincing signal to me, for the time being.
Twice now this game Pablo has found reason to vote for Dan and then make moves to take that vote off. First it was in Day 1 to unnecessarily narrow the runoff prematurely, and in Day 2 it was with his fake reveal. I may be way off about linking Danbob with Pablo, but knowing that Pablo is Mafia, the connection between the two is hard for me to ignore.
I have been looking at Viking, Danbob and Maddog. All three of them voted JR at the end of Day 1. Maddog and Viking I have been the most confident about and Danbob fit it in as a good third option. In this scenario, I could see Danbob caught being the “patsy” or fake third mafia. If this is the case, then the real third mafia would have been a JR voter being the third. Jaz was the top of my suspicion list among JR voters, so it makes sense that he could be Mafia.
My guess is Mafia is probably Jaz - Maddog - Viking. I will dig through and analyze a bit tomorrow when back at work.
ZIG > Jaz (locked)
Was doing a re-read and just wanted to clarify this: you meant "Viking voters" here, right?
FWIW, I am torn believing him or not. Would like to see what Jaz has to say.
Less concerned about ZIG, because he has spun himself Kdogg style and not 100% on the reveal.
I'm not sure what Jaz is going to be able to do other than fake revealing, which no one would probably believe at this point. He can come in here and say he's Town, vote for me, and that's about it. His time is better spent right now in the DM thread coming up with some bullshit plot and some way for the rest of Mafia to salvage this. Coming in here and saying "I'm Town guys, you gotta believe me" isn't going to accomplish a whole lot.
I also don't know why you would be less concerned about ZIG and wishy-washy on whether I'm telling the truth. That's an awkward line of logic.
See, these are the posts that give me pause and hence why I am hesitant to come out and just say I believe you.
Everyone gets a chance to tell their own story and a chance to defend in there own way. Trying to tell me he will either fake or just say he is town discounts him as a player, limits anything we may learn from him if you are indeed right, and ultimately hurts the town.
As I said, there is a lot of reasons you could be the inspector, but there are a few things that give me a lot of pause.
To be honest, my aim here was to poke holes in what you were saying, Viking, as much as it was anticipating what Jaz is saying. On some level, I appreciate your skepticism. I'm often one of the last people to believe the Inspector. On the other hand, I think you should probably determine whether I am Inspector by my actions and words. You know that whatever Mafia is named is going to come in and spin as well as I know it. What I said had more to do with how your post was raising my suspicions of you than trying to discredit or bully Jaz (although, I'm also going to discredit Jaz as much as possible, because he's Mafia).
My Day 1 voting patterns were based around trying to force Jaz in particular to re-vote, not voting with Jaz, and also trying to force unknown players to make decisions so that I could observe their actions. This should be pretty clear in any re-read. Some of my logic may read a little strained because I had to accomplish those goals without giving myself up. I'll admit that.
Are you trying to spin a Dan-Pablo narrative now to distance from Dan, Jaz? Or just trying to tie me to anyone who might make sense?
If I'm wrong about Danbob, then my guess is that Pablo's two partners might be in the pool of other Viking voters - Zolah/ZIG/Thor. Killing me now and clearing ZIG would likely satisfy the town's itch to go after Viking voters, allowing the Mafia to direct the conversation towards JR voters, who (other than Pablo) would all be town.
ZIG and Thor seem to make the most sense in this scenario, given the timing of Pablo's fake reveal.
ZIG and Thor were both set to go forward in the runoff with me and it wasn't looking like many people were trying to vote me off, so if they are Pablo's partners the Mafia would have likely been losing someone today. By fake revealing with my name, getting the town to vote me out would mean they only have to kill one townie tomorrow to win the game. Oftentimes during fake reveals Mafia will clear a townie as town to gain their trust, so it's possible that this is what is happening in re: ZIG, but if Thor was the only partner set to go forward in the runoff, I'm not sure it'd be worth the risk of a fake reveal.
also feels like he's maybe trying to discredit the idea of one of thor or zolah being mafia since everything he says is going to be questioned as bs.
i don't love the idea of the inspector and cleared town both being on me as town, but the whack should clear things up, and I still can't find a reason to doubt at the moment.
If I'm wrong about Danbob, then my guess is that Pablo's two partners might be in the pool of other Viking voters - Zolah/ZIG/Thor. Killing me now and clearing ZIG would likely satisfy the town's itch to go after Viking voters, allowing the Mafia to direct the conversation towards JR voters, who (other than Pablo) would all be town.
ZIG and Thor seem to make the most sense in this scenario, given the timing of Pablo's fake reveal.
ZIG and Thor were both set to go forward in the runoff with me and it wasn't looking like many people were trying to vote me off, so if they are Pablo's partners the Mafia would have likely been losing someone today. By fake revealing with my name, getting the town to vote me out would mean they only have to kill one townie tomorrow to win the game. Oftentimes during fake reveals Mafia will clear a townie as town to gain their trust, so it's possible that this is what is happening in re: ZIG, but if Thor was the only partner set to go forward in the runoff, I'm not sure it'd be worth the risk of a fake reveal.
I have been looking at Viking, Danbob and Maddog. All three of them voted JR at the end of Day 1. Maddog and Viking I have been the most confident about and Danbob fit it in as a good third option. In this scenario, I could see Danbob caught being the “patsy” or fake third mafia. If this is the case, then the real third mafia would have been a JR voter being the third. Jaz was the top of my suspicion list among JR voters, so it makes sense that he could be Mafia.
My guess is Mafia is probably Jaz - Maddog - Viking. I will dig through and analyze a bit tomorrow when back at work.
ZIG > Jaz (locked)
Was doing a re-read and just wanted to clarify this: you meant "Viking voters" here, right?
I'm not sure what Jaz is going to be able to do other than fake revealing, which no one would probably believe at this point. He can come in here and say he's Town, vote for me, and that's about it. His time is better spent right now in the DM thread coming up with some bullshit plot and some way for the rest of Mafia to salvage this. Coming in here and saying "I'm Town guys, you gotta believe me" isn't going to accomplish a whole lot.
I also don't know why you would be less concerned about ZIG and wishy-washy on whether I'm telling the truth. That's an awkward line of logic.
See, these are the posts that give me pause and hence why I am hesitant to come out and just say I believe you.
Everyone gets a chance to tell their own story and a chance to defend in there own way. Trying to tell me he will either fake or just say he is town discounts him as a player, limits anything we may learn from him if you are indeed right, and ultimately hurts the town.
As I said, there is a lot of reasons you could be the inspector, but there are a few things that give me a lot of pause.
To be honest, my aim here was to poke holes in what you were saying, Viking, as much as it was anticipating what Jaz is saying. On some level, I appreciate your skepticism. I'm often one of the last people to believe the Inspector. On the other hand, I think you should probably determine whether I am Inspector by my actions and words. You know that whatever Mafia is named is going to come in and spin as well as I know it. What I said had more to do with how your post was raising my suspicions of you than trying to discredit or bully Jaz (although, I'm also going to discredit Jaz as much as possible, because he's Mafia).
My Day 1 voting patterns were based around trying to force Jaz in particular to re-vote, not voting with Jaz, and also trying to force unknown players to make decisions so that I could observe their actions. This should be pretty clear in any re-read. Some of my logic may read a little strained because I had to accomplish those goals without giving myself up. I'll admit that.
Are you trying to spin a Dan-Pablo narrative now to distance from Dan, Jaz? Or just trying to tie me to anyone who might make sense?
No, I just have not been able to reread the thread yet. As I said, I read you townie and a lot lines up, but I am always skeptical. Honestly, I am a big fan of the late day 1 reveal for a lot of reasons I will share after the game. I am not saying I don't believ you. Just i want to read through a few times. Hence my first post asking for an extension.
If I'm wrong about Danbob, then my guess is that Pablo's two partners might be in the pool of other Viking voters - Zolah/ZIG/Thor. Killing me now and clearing ZIG would likely satisfy the town's itch to go after Viking voters, allowing the Mafia to direct the conversation towards JR voters, who (other than Pablo) would all be town.
ZIG and Thor seem to make the most sense in this scenario, given the timing of Pablo's fake reveal.
ZIG and Thor were both set to go forward in the runoff with me and it wasn't looking like many people were trying to vote me off, so if they are Pablo's partners the Mafia would have likely been losing someone today. By fake revealing with my name, getting the town to vote me out would mean they only have to kill one townie tomorrow to win the game. Oftentimes during fake reveals Mafia will clear a townie as town to gain their trust, so it's possible that this is what is happening in re: ZIG, but if Thor was the only partner set to go forward in the runoff, I'm not sure it'd be worth the risk of a fake reveal.
Why would Mafia whack tainted if that was true?
Hmm, good point. Only think I can think of is that the Inspector usually votes opposite their given name, so if they thought Tainted had Zolah/Thor/Zig's name, that could be reason given Tainted's switch. But to be honest that seems pretty weak since there were other people who would probably have been better suited to be whacked. Tainted's whack doesn't really point to Pablo/Thor/ZIG as far as I can tell.
