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Hmm, good point. Only think I can think of is that the Inspector usually votes opposite their given name, so if they thought Tainted had Zolah/Thor/Zig's name, that could be reason given Tainted's switch. But to be honest that seems pretty weak since there were other people who would probably have been better suited to be whacked. Tainted's whack doesn't really point to Pablo/Thor/ZIG as far as I can tell.
that's kind of a sweeping generalization, I didn't for instance.
Just catching up on mobile before bed. I had New Years Eve & New Years Day plans and my kids go back to school in a few days so I’ve had other priorities.
I want to reread again, and should have time in the morning, but I doubt I will be awake by 9:30. FWIW, I believe Pablo. When I voted for Jaz, I even said it was because he was quiet. He didn’t argue or even comment on that back to me.
I was skeptical of Zig because he said everything that I was thinking and did that last game where he ended up being mafia. I do think mafia thought Tainted was inspector, and there was a mafia in the Viking voters because of that switch and Jaz makes sense.
Maddog, yes, I left Jaz off my “list” of quiet players, but I also left Thor off of it too. I was more interested in Potent/Tainted because of the 3 stacking in D1 and Zig because he was quiet and making the power moves. I believe you were the one pounding that one into the ground. I could have voted for Thor to go into the runoff with me, but instead put a vote on Jaz because he fit the criteria of quiet Viking voter and had a lower post count than Thor.
After being lashed out at and come at about possible cheating, and Maddog telling me I could have done XY or Z instead of what I did, I questioned even continuing this game. I won’t be playing or reffing the next game. If I had to guess, mafia would be Jaz, Maddog & Viking but I will get a better read in tomorrow.
Hmm, good point. Only think I can think of is that the Inspector usually votes opposite their given name, so if they thought Tainted had Zolah/Thor/Zig's name, that could be reason given Tainted's switch. But to be honest that seems pretty weak since there were other people who would probably have been better suited to be whacked. Tainted's whack doesn't really point to Pablo/Thor/ZIG as far as I can tell.
that's kind of a sweeping generalization, I didn't for instance.
Hence the word "usually". Usually the Mafia split 2-1 in Round 1, but sometimes they don't. Usually the Day 1 kill is a townie, but sometimes it's not. Town and Mafia alike have to use sweeping generalizations when they're in the dark.
putting this here because I couldn't remember. yes I marked myself town, do the same for you if you feel the need.
before taints switch it seems unlikely that mafia was 1-2 going into the runoff, idk what the numbers are on that but it seems to never come up as an option when discussing splits.
Maddog, yes, I left Jaz off my “list” of quiet players, but I also left Thor off of it too. I was more interested in Potent/Tainted because of the 3 stacking in D1 and Zig because he was quiet and making the power moves. I believe you were the one pounding that one into the ground. I could have voted for Thor to go into the runoff with me, but instead put a vote on Jaz because he fit the criteria of quiet Viking voter and had a lower post count than Thor.
After being lashed out at and come at about possible cheating, and Maddog telling me I could have done XY or Z instead of what I did, I questioned even continuing this game. I won’t be playing or reffing the next game. If I had to guess, mafia would be Jaz, Maddog & Viking but I will get a better read in tomorrow.
a. yeah i know, you already explained, you don't need to re quote yourself (words can be bullshit), I was just listing alternative theories and why each person would make sense with jaz.
b. most of that x y z was directed towards how I felt about jr. and bowing out of the game because of it is bullshit. good grief. i legitimately don't get why people sign up if theyre not going to be in a place to contribute or if they just admit to not giving a shit or trying.
and for what it's worth i absolutely think that what I said regarding telling the ref of this game that rules were missing is the right thing to do. i didn't immediately equate that to being mafia, or that you were cheating, but that should apply to everyone. you were the one that said it was ok that me and pablo play because you and jr dont talk about it while playing, and there have been times where he was playing without you and you commented and i thought that might be pushing it. there have been games pablo hasn't played where he said he thought about liking my posts but didn't because he thought it might be too much of an influence.
this is now the third person to claim me jaz and viking off of one given name. i cant wait til the end of the game to tell y'all how wrong y'all are.
i don't think, and never did think she cheated. jr called out dan for doing it so in that context its fair to imply jr was for admitting to something that could possibly be seen as breaking the rule, however incidental and tame it may be.
Finally home and have had a chance pull apart the thread. First, Thor, I am going to apologize because this is my first incoming old school Viking post.
To get this out of the way:
Viking >>> Jaz
After having time to reread everything, either A, Pablo hates Jaz or B, Pablo is the inspector who was leaving breadcrumbs. Below are the posts that sold it for me:
Why not allow that runoff to happen (and also get tainted's explanation) instead of forcing the moves early? If you think Danbob is most likely mafia of the three and prefer that he go forward, you've lowered the chances of that happening.
No moves have been forced. We have almost fourteen hours before the round ends. If anyone is thinking about moving to Dan, I can move back. I don't see it happening, though. I don't really know if anyone on JR or Viking is willing to move to Dan, because most of them haven't been speaking their minds, and one of the few who has is Dan.
First one, and weaker than some of the others, but pushing on Jaz a bit back in Day 1.
Seems a bit convenient that all the players that have spoken up in detail so far since the start of day 2 all share similar feelings / theories...
I am definitely interested in hearing a few alternatives. I have a feeling that Viking is either (a) Mafia or (b) way off in his theories. And yet, here we are, shaping a runoff the way he thinks we should.
Idk if Potent is gonna vote. I guess he got married and congratulations, yadda yadda..
I like that Thor is in this, gonna put some pressure on another who had none on Day 1.
Pablo > Dan > Jaz
Start of putting pressure on JR, which continued.
There were a few more, but working through a bit of a fog atm.
piggy pablo, I guess I would say don't indite me for making the same assumption with ZIG that you did. The only difference is that I didn't have a guess overnight, so it never got cleared up. Also, sorry I was hesitant. I like to have the facts before I say I believe you. I think a little skepticism is healthy in this game.
And just for posterity, since a number of you attacked me for this
Ok, so here is where I am at atm. Again, I could be 100% wrong or could be on target. Hopefully it provides some food for thought and consumption for the other 6 townies so we can start to feel each other out.
First, let me clear up the ZIG stuff. ZIG has made a staggering total of 3 posts as of the time I started this post; his initial vote and 2 pure fluff. However, his vote for Zolah stacked her into the runoff and was made 4 minutes after she started posting. Nothing ZIG has said makes me think he is town, but his timing and putting Zolah into the runoff are not something a mafia member would normally do. So, I feel like should my current theory prove valid, he is more likely to be town. I reserved comment because admittedly, it is a weak argument based primarily on feeling and I did not want to rock the current runoff lineup.
The other 2 I am leaning towards town are Jimma and Thor. Jimma because his thinking is largely in parallel with mine and he is seeing some of the same patterns. There are a few things that give me pause, but nothing causing alarms. Thor mainly because I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt due to his personal prejudice against me. He is the most shaky of the 3 but it helps to have him there.
So with those 3, plus myself as town, I have Jaz, Tainted, Potent, and Pablo at neutral. There just is not enough to go on at this point to really make a call on these 4. I have general feelings, but nothing I can point to at this point. There is likely a mafia member in this group, but that is a problem for the next day. I can elaborate if needed on any of the above.
That leaves Zolah, JR, & Dan. Given the posts today, I believe Zolah and JR are likely mafia together. I am more confident in Zolah than JR due to her obfuscation of comments I made, either intentionally or unintentionally. She is either deliberately lying or subconsciously reading what I wrote in a way that she believes as a direct attack that she has to spin in a different way instead of simply answering a question and moving on. JR has too many red flags that have been well vetted, but again, my preference is Zolah.
That leaves us with Danbob. He may be townie, as he a standard Mafia target. I will guarantee there is a mafia member in the DanBob voters for that reason. However, given the back in forth on the last 2 pages, I cant shake the feeling that there is the potential he may be mafia with Zolah and JR. It is an insane idea and I am likely wrong on it, but what better alibi to skate him through. Mafia rarely whack him, if Zolah and JR are mafia, and we kill them day 1 and 2, he will draw next to no suspicion until at least day 4, and likely not even then. Again, insane, but something to think about.
TL:DR - Zolah and JR are likely mafia. One of the quiet ones are likely the 3rd, but keep your eye on Danbob. Please tear into this as you will. Just my thoughts on where we are atm. Also, I will likely change to Zolah before the runoff is out unless she is into R3 with JR already.
As noted above, I noted Danbob, since there was something that was seemingly off about him yesterday. Pablo addressed a bit of it, but it just seems like he is playing a cleaner game than normal.
Potent is married (congrats) but is still an enigma. I still believe Maddog leans town to me. And given that Jaz is mafia, it is extremely unlikely that he and Thor both are mafia, given that they both originally voted for me instead of spreading it out.
So, if ZIG (Known), Thor (Likely), Pablo (Inspector), Myself (Only role I know) are town, Tainted (Night 1 Whack) and I believe Maddog is town too, then as long as we kill the pool of JR (dead), Jaz (Identified mafia), Zolah, dan, and Potent die, we win. And I would say this is my order of suspicion and order of who I believe should be lynched.
ZIG dont know what else to say except I was wrong and I thought you were suspicious as hell.
I need to do more rereading on Maddog to make sure, but that is a task for another day.
I believe that's the correct updated tally. ZIG was the only person I noticed locking.
Reading through this afternoon's posts, I probably should have waited a little longer, like another hour or so. Perhaps ZIG would have voted for Jaz over Thor and we'd have a ZIG-Jaz runoff with some more information gained. My apologies, Town. I flinched early.
I don't think that what he did was so egregious that he needs to be insta-lynched, fine with him staying in the runoff. dan votes first as mafia and all.
He was on Zolah, was reading some of the heat on Dan similar to me, but bringing up the dan votes first as mafia piece is interesting.
There is always debate. That's why I said 5 was my preference. If everyone thinks 4 is the magic number then so be it as long as JR is in it. Zolah would be a nice to have, but atm I feel like they are a package deal.
between potent, tainted, and zig i don't know who i would rather have in. tainted with the 3 stack, potent with the move, zig hasn't done much, he created the third stack (could go either way). zig dropping out would give zolah a revote with her name in the ro, but having her choose between the remaining four might not be the worst thing.
Less suspicious of ZIG at a time I was thinking he was town.
"Taking out of context" seems more accurate. I jump at minor suspicion on Day 1 because it's all we have. How dumb of me. Have you ever tried to actually scum hunt, rather than find something you don't like and attack it to the detriment of town? As town (which you may or may not be) you're garbage, because you suck at actually looking for mafia, so you just nitpick other townies to death.
ok dude. people lie, if you're just going to take people at their word fucking go for it.
and ftr i fucking rocked it the other game, and have been mafia multiple times where the consensus plan being to 'keep jr alive' because the perception is you're shit town, so lets calm down on the who sucks talk.
This. I may not agree on JR being a shit townie, but I felt you would not say this in thread if you were mafia. It is REALLY strong for a Day 1 issue, which is divisive and is 1 less vote you can count on.
Any reason you felt the need to vote prior to Potent and Pablo? They were the outstanding votes at the time.
My initial vote for zolah wasnt based on anything, her back and forth with Viking while notable didn't have the same feel as Dan/Jr, and in the event they're all town he is being the least helpful. I figured one of them (Pablo/potent) would even zolah back to 2 to force the other to make the final decision, but I wanted to make sure jr didn't fall out.
Thor and Jaz are the only players to vote once so far. Something to note when there are a handful of people with 3-4 votes.
Calls out Thor and Jaz. What he did not mention was that they were both on me the whole time and never moved. I don't think he would highlight this if he was mafia with Jaz.
Zig also seemed to be the only one with an issue in tainteds vote switch prior to the whack.
Could be what got him whacked, could be bit of misdirection but no one's really brought that up yet.
This kind of cinches it IMO, as he brings up the misdirection. In light of your reveal, he was more right than wrong here. While not the primary reason (I still think they thought Tainted was Inspector), it definitely helps as a secondary reason.
There were a few other feel reasons, but this sums it up in my mind. Nothing that screams distancing, threw suspicion at likely mafia members, etc. For these reasons, I am leaning toward him being town.
I believe that's the correct updated tally. ZIG was the only person I noticed locking.
Reading through this afternoon's posts, I probably should have waited a little longer, like another hour or so. Perhaps ZIG would have voted for Jaz over Thor and we'd have a ZIG-Jaz runoff with some more information gained. My apologies, Town. I flinched early.
Hence the question on the timing. It did not make a ton of sense to come out when you did. Either earlier or later, but it was in no mans land without a ton of value. But Inspector sucks. I hate that role.
Your question seemed to imply that I should have come out immediately at the beginning of Day 2, though. I made the opposite mistake.
It was an either or. There was value to coming out then so we didnt chase a ghost and there is value to coming out later if you can catch a crook.
I prefer the earlier one. Case in point is exactly what happened with Jaz. His longer post with spin helps to sort who is who. In this case, upon reread, we dont need it, but more info is always better.
Can you explain your timing a bit better? We have been in the same place since immediately after the whack with ZIG being highly suspicious. Why wait the extra few days when you could have put us on a better path? Especially considering many of us were of the opinion Tainted was the inspector, which shaped a lot of the theories.
I waited because I would have rather stayed under the radar and gotten another name on Night 2. But earlier today it seemed to me like ZIG was going to get lynched, maybe without even a runoff, so I felt like I had to make a move, because I knew that he was Town.
And I feel like all of this should be pretty clear from what I already said in my response to Thor and just general knowledge of how this game works.
This doesn't read as an either or to me at all, but fair enough if you thought I should have revealed earlier. My timing probably wasn't ideal. There are downsides to every scenario, though. Even a ZIG-Jaz runoff, which would now be my ideal scenario, but not yours.
I waited because I would have rather stayed under the radar and gotten another name on Night 2. But earlier today it seemed to me like ZIG was going to get lynched, maybe without even a runoff, so I felt like I had to make a move, because I knew that he was Town.
And I feel like all of this should be pretty clear from what I already said in my response to Thor and just general knowledge of how this game works.
This doesn't read as an either or to me at all, but fair enough if you thought I should have revealed earlier. My timing probably wasn't ideal. There are downsides to every scenario, though. Even a ZIG-Jaz runoff, which would now be my ideal scenario, but not yours.
Re the ZIG, Jaz scenario, I disagree. I would have been fine with it, but likely never would have moved off ZIG. Without the extra knowledge you had, he looked shady, tainted pointed to him, and it made sense. Otherwise, as I said, inspector sucks. I never made it out of Day 1 as inspector in 3 tries. But how I play makes it a less than ideal role.
Can you be more specific as to why Maddog is a Town lean for you?
A big issue I have is the flippant way Maddog and Viking seem to keep “clearing” each other as town.
I also just read Viking’s “evidence” for clearing Maddog and I just don’t see how he does so. It felt like he just quoted a few different Maddog posts and added some random comments.
I waited because I would have rather stayed under the radar and gotten another name on Night 2. But earlier today it seemed to me like ZIG was going to get lynched, maybe without even a runoff, so I felt like I had to make a move, because I knew that he was Town.
And I feel like all of this should be pretty clear from what I already said in my response to Thor and just general knowledge of how this game works.
This doesn't read as an either or to me at all, but fair enough if you thought I should have revealed earlier. My timing probably wasn't ideal. There are downsides to every scenario, though. Even a ZIG-Jaz runoff, which would now be my ideal scenario, but not yours.
Also, it was not an either or. I lean heavily to earlier reveals for the reason posted in the last post.
Can you be more specific as to why Maddog is a Town lean for you?
A big issue I have is the flippant way Maddog and Viking seem to keep “clearing” each other as town.
I also just read Viking’s “evidence” for clearing Maddog and I just don’t see how he does so. It felt like he just quoted a few different Maddog posts and added some random comments.
Maddog has taken great pains to not clear me. It just so happens we have been reading the game on similar (not the same) lines. And sorry I dont have better evidence. Got to get to a pool of 5 and I have felt from early on that he was not mafia.
Wait, so WLViking, were you advocating to piggy pablo that he should have revealed earlier on Day 2? Doesn’t that go completely against what you have stated earlier in the game about more information is better for the town. If I recall on Day 1, you stated that the Day 1 length corresponds to townie wins, meaning the more information, voting, and talking that occurs is beneficial to the town. Having the inspector wait to reveal allows for more votes and strategizing that the inspector can watch and “inspect” on.
This doesn't read as an either or to me at all, but fair enough if you thought I should have revealed earlier. My timing probably wasn't ideal. There are downsides to every scenario, though. Even a ZIG-Jaz runoff, which would now be my ideal scenario, but not yours.
Re the ZIG, Jaz scenario, I disagree. I would have been fine with it, but likely never would have moved off ZIG. Without the extra knowledge you had, he looked shady, tainted pointed to him, and it made sense. Otherwise, as I said, inspector sucks. I never made it out of Day 1 as inspector in 3 tries. But how I play makes it a less than ideal role.
But this is what I'm saying. You're saying you wouldn't have moved off ZIG. Others may have felt the same way. If it's down to ZIG and Jaz and I come out saying Jaz is Mafia and ZIG is Town, that's going to look awfully convenient and make ZIG and myself look like Mafia. At the same time, people like you may have been set in their votes, and we end up with ZIG dead (via lynch), myself dead (via whack) and Jaz living at least one more day, probably getting lynched the next day, but maybe not. That's two steps back and maybe one step forward. That is a downside to what now seems like it would have been the best case (to me).
Wait, so WLViking, were you advocating to piggy pablo that he should have revealed earlier on Day 2? Doesn’t that go completely against what you have stated earlier in the game about more information is better for the town. If I recall on Day 1, you stated that the Day 1 length corresponds to townie wins, meaning the more information, voting, and talking that occurs is beneficial to the town. Having the inspector wait to reveal allows for more votes and strategizing that the inspector can watch and “inspect” on.
No, it is actually the reverse. Generally, an earlier reveal provokes a lot more conversation. People who skate by being quiet are forced to talk.
Re the ZIG, Jaz scenario, I disagree. I would have been fine with it, but likely never would have moved off ZIG. Without the extra knowledge you had, he looked shady, tainted pointed to him, and it made sense. Otherwise, as I said, inspector sucks. I never made it out of Day 1 as inspector in 3 tries. But how I play makes it a less than ideal role.
But this is what I'm saying. You're saying you wouldn't have moved off ZIG. Others may have felt the same way. If it's down to ZIG and Jaz and I come out saying Jaz is Mafia and ZIG is Town, that's going to look awfully convenient and make ZIG and myself look like Mafia. At the same time, people like you may have been set in their votes, and we end up with ZIG dead (via lynch), myself dead (via whack) and Jaz living at least one more day, probably getting lynched the next day, but maybe not. That's two steps back and maybe one step forward. That is a downside to what now seems like it would have been the best case (to me).
Very good point, well made. I would have thought you were mafia as well.
Another reason to put into the earlier reveal camp.
Wait, so WLViking, were you advocating to piggy pablo that he should have revealed earlier on Day 2? Doesn’t that go completely against what you have stated earlier in the game about more information is better for the town. If I recall on Day 1, you stated that the Day 1 length corresponds to townie wins, meaning the more information, voting, and talking that occurs is beneficial to the town. Having the inspector wait to reveal allows for more votes and strategizing that the inspector can watch and “inspect” on.
No, it is actually the reverse. Generally, an earlier reveal provokes a lot more conversation. People who skate by being quiet are forced to talk.
Agree to Disagree. The inspector being able to watch their given name talk, vote, and strategize while under cover provides far more information. If Pablo had revealed at the beginning of Day 2, it would have been a straight Jaz vote-off; instead, we got 5 additional pages of discussion and a ton of Day 2 votes unaffected by the reveal.
No, it is actually the reverse. Generally, an earlier reveal provokes a lot more conversation. People who skate by being quiet are forced to talk.
Agree to Disagree. The inspector being able to watch their given name talk, vote, and strategize while under cover provides far more information. If Pablo had revealed at the beginning of Day 2, it would have been a straight Jaz vote-off; instead, we got 5 additional pages of discussion and a ton of Day 2 votes unaffected by the reveal.
Agreed to disagree. We can take this offline after the game.
I haven't cleared viking by any means and have stated as such. Part of the reason I voted for you is that you have been so on viking and then didn't even really attempt to get him in this runoff. After his arguing with Zolah I even went as far to say if zolah was mafia I would not immediately clear viking.
