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Post by SupeЯfuЯЯyanimal on Jan 3, 2018 21:07:50 GMT -5
Hold on guys, the last page's tally is slightly wrong... mostly by order of votes. Plus, it needs to be updated anyway. Working on a new one but you guys aren't helping with 2000 posts a minute.
Kidding, sorta. Give me a second. I'm going to go ahead and post what I have and THEN do a third read through to make sure it's right.
As a non-participant with no clue of the roles I reserve the right to edit.
Hold on guys, the last page's tally is slightly wrong... mostly by order of votes. Plus, it needs to be updated anyway. Working on a new one but you guys aren't helping with 2000 posts a minute.
Kidding, sorta. Give me a second. I'm going to go ahead and post what I have and THEN do a third read through to make sure it's right.
As a non-percipient with no clue of the roles I reserve the right to edit.
Caught up on games I missed. Couple reasons the town keeps losing (and no, it is not that the mafia can coordinate and PM):
1 - People know each other in RL and are unwilling to separate the game from reality. You are nice people and in general (with notable exceptions) you are not willing to play the game because subconsciously think there will be blow back from friends. This can be overcome, but in general, it leads to
2 - Over-reliance on voting patterns and previous play. The best players combine both an objective and subjective approach, looking at voting pattern, history, but most importantly, a general "feel". It is what makes SFA a dangerous player. He is difficult to spin because you have to spin him in multiple ways. Once you learn how someone makes their decisions, you can prey on that and target them in multiple ways. Players need to do a better job combining logic and intuition but this requires players to think critically, even when not posting.
3 - The above issues have made people scared to step out of any worn pattern for fear that you will be called out on it. The patterns have become more important than your actual thoughts. This is especially evident on Day 1, which is referred to multiple times as a lost day because you don't "know" anything. You don't know anything because very little of substance is actually posted. Once day 2 commences, it is amazing how many posts there are where someone says "I thought this Day 1 and it was confirmed overnight". If 6 people have the same thought in thread earlier in the day, Day 1 is not a lost day.
Interestingly, if you plug the math, the 60% WR for the mafia matches up almost on the money with the Cornell study formulas for a 9 player, 3 mafia game.
If you go farther back, you will see the mafia did not always have the same degree of success on Inforoo, and there was a time when the town has a similarly lopsided run of success. This is a relatively new trend, and I think the above are some of the reasons why.
The mafia won a few games where they should not have recently. Town had them, but the above let them walk.
Hold on guys, the last page's tally is slightly wrong... mostly by order of votes. Plus, it needs to be updated anyway. Working on a new one but you guys aren't helping with 2000 posts a minute.
Kidding, sorta. Give me a second. I'm going to go ahead and post what I have and THEN do a third read through to make sure it's right.
As a non-percipient with no clue of the roles I reserve the right to edit.
Caught up on games I missed. Couple reasons the town keeps losing (and no, it is not that the mafia can coordinate and PM):
1 - People know each other in RL and are unwilling to separate the game from reality. You are nice people and in general (with notable exceptions) you are not willing to play the game because subconsciously think there will be blow back from friends. This can be overcome, but in general, it leads to
2 - Over-reliance on voting patterns and previous play. The best players combine both an objective and subjective approach, looking at voting pattern, history, but most importantly, a general "feel". It is what makes SFA a dangerous player. He is difficult to spin because you have to spin him in multiple ways. Once you learn how someone makes their decisions, you can prey on that and target them in multiple ways. Players need to do a better job combining logic and intuition but this requires players to think critically, even when not posting.
3 - The above issues have made people scared to step out of any worn pattern for fear that you will be called out on it. The patterns have become more important than your actual thoughts. This is especially evident on Day 1, which is referred to multiple times as a lost day because you don't "know" anything. You don't know anything because very little of substance is actually posted. Once day 2 commences, it is amazing how many posts there are where someone says "I thought this Day 1 and it was confirmed overnight". If 6 people have the same thought in thread earlier in the day, Day 1 is not a lost day.
Interestingly, if you plug the math, the 60% WR for the mafia matches up almost on the money with the Cornell study formulas for a 9 player, 3 mafia game.
If you go farther back, you will see the mafia did not always have the same degree of success on Inforoo, and there was a time when the town has a similarly lopsided run of success. This is a relatively new trend, and I think the above are some of the reasons why.
The mafia won a few games where they should not have recently. Town had them, but the above let them walk.
@potent, I am guessing you are on your honeymoon atm. What are your thoughts on who is potential mafia? As I said, I feel Zolah is more likely than you to be mafia but it is hard to sort out given how few posts you have.
The reason is there are a lot of suspicious players remaining.
If we kill Zig we only leave townies as the available whack. It would clear up a lot. Mafia self whacking at 5-2 would be suuuuper risky.
If we let Zig get whacked we lynch an unknown and get nothing from the whack.
Whacking the wrong player here both fucks us and gives us nothing new going forward.
I will repeat, there is never a good reason to kill a confirmed townie. We would be throwing away a potential kill with little to no gain. You are basically saying the remaining players aren't good enough to figure it out on their own. I would disagree.
Also, I do not think the mafia would self whack. I happen to think we are down to 1 of them, but if not, then the 2 are likely Zolah and Potent. If you force them to whack, they will likely whack Thor, leaving you, me, zolah, potent and Dan. And we would be back where we started. Thor is the closest to a second confirmed townie.
This kind of breadcrumb who will/won't be whacked is essentially what I was trying to avoid when I mentioned jr, viking, zig, Pablo undercutting.
viking thinks - zolah/potent zolah thinks - viking/potent dan thinks - jr/maddog zig thinks - viking/maddog thor thinks - potent/zolah potent thinks - viking/maddog (i guess, idk not a lot to go off of)
or based on whats been commented how things have been voted. thats without dan previously being for thor at points, viking concluding jr at points, zig suggesting dan at points, potent pushing zolah earlier in the game, thor also being suspicious of me (but mostly seems to think im just playing like a moron)
so can someone give me a legit reason why we should be stabbing in the dark here rather than force mafia to take someone out that they could be hiding behind/waiting to spin.
the only things that have really changed in this current tally is i now have my vote instead of viking (which if you think im mafia, good work?), and that zolah dropped out entirely.
viking thinks - zolah/potent zolah thinks - viking/potent dan thinks - jr/maddog zig thinks - viking/maddog thor thinks - potent/zolah potent thinks - viking/maddog (i guess, idk not a lot to go off of)
or based on whats been commented how things have been voted. thats without dan previously being for thor at points, viking concluding jr at points, zig suggesting dan at points, potent pushing zolah earlier in the game, thor also being suspicious of me (but mostly seems to think im just playing like a moron)
so can someone give me a legit reason why we should be stabbing in the dark here rather than force mafia to take someone out that they could be hiding behind/waiting to spin.
viking thinks - zolah/potent zolah thinks - viking/potent dan thinks - jr/maddog zig thinks - viking/maddog thor thinks - potent/zolah potent thinks - viking/maddog (i guess, idk not a lot to go off of)
or based on whats been commented how things have been voted. thats without dan previously being for thor at points, viking concluding jr at points, zig suggesting dan at points, potent pushing zolah earlier in the game, thor also being suspicious of me (but mostly seems to think im just playing like a moron)
so can someone give me a legit reason why we should be stabbing in the dark here rather than force mafia to take someone out that they could be hiding behind/waiting to spin.
If JR was town, Tainted is town, Pablo is town, and ZIG is town; lynching ZIG means the mafia get to whack another townie. That’s potentially 5 dead townies and 1 dead mafia (Jaz) going into the next round.
In other words, we could be putting ourselves in a position starting next day with 5 players, 2 mafia, and 3 town. Meaning if we don’t lynch a mafia next day, we lose.
If we take a stab at an unknown now, we might get a mafia. (Maybe not, but worth a shot). Then ZIG gets whacked. In that scenario, we enter tomorrow with 1 living mafia, and 4 town. That’s a much better scenario. And if we fuck up and lynch a town right now, we’ll be in the same boat as if we listened to your asinine plan to lynch ZIG.
FWIW, I think Potent is nursing the fuck out of this honeymoon/vacation. He’s probably sitting on his ass on the beach/at a hotel/at a spa/etc. all day with more free time than any of us right now. He’s the last person that deserves a pass for being quiet.
If JR was town, Tainted is town, Pablo is town, and ZIG is town; lynching ZIG means the mafia get to whack another townie. That’s potentially 5 dead townies and 1 dead mafia (Jaz) going into the next round.
In other words, we could be putting ourselves in a position starting next day with 5 players, 2 mafia, and 3 town. Meaning if we don’t lynch a mafia next day, we lose.
If we take a stab at an unknown now, we might get a mafia. (Maybe not, but worth a shot). Then ZIG gets whacked. In that scenario, we enter tomorrow with 1 living mafia, and 4 town. That’s a much better scenario. And if we fuck up and lynch a town right now, we’ll be in the same boat as if we listened to your asinine plan to lynch ZIG.
It’s also possible if we take a stab at an unknown that we win tonight if JR and Jaz were both mafia. There is so much upside to lynching anyone but ZIG. And even more downside to lynching ZIG.
If you can’t see that, then may god have mercy on your soul.
If JR was town, Tainted is town, Pablo is town, and ZIG is town; lynching ZIG means the mafia get to whack another townie. That’s potentially 5 dead townies and 1 dead mafia (Jaz) going into the next round.
In other words, we could be putting ourselves in a position starting next day with 5 players, 2 mafia, and 3 town. Meaning if we don’t lynch a mafia next day, we lose.
If we take a stab at an unknown now, we might get a mafia. (Maybe not, but worth a shot). Then ZIG gets whacked. In that scenario, we enter tomorrow with 1 living mafia, and 4 town. That’s a much better scenario. And if we fuck up and lynch a town right now, we’ll be in the same boat as if we listened to your asinine plan to lynch ZIG.
i understand, but look at how viking's presenting it "im town, next is zig", we get nothing new as far as im concerned.
same thing if i go here.
and as much as potent is garnering suspicion, its also mostly based on speculation.
i just think more is going to come from a whack. clearly I'm the only one, but again, mafia is expecting this, they werent expecting what I'm suggesting and that would force their hand.
If JR was town, Tainted is town, Pablo is town, and ZIG is town; lynching ZIG means the mafia get to whack another townie. That’s potentially 5 dead townies and 1 dead mafia (Jaz) going into the next round.
In other words, we could be putting ourselves in a position starting next day with 5 players, 2 mafia, and 3 town. Meaning if we don’t lynch a mafia next day, we lose.
If we take a stab at an unknown now, we might get a mafia. (Maybe not, but worth a shot). Then ZIG gets whacked. In that scenario, we enter tomorrow with 1 living mafia, and 4 town. That’s a much better scenario. And if we fuck up and lynch a town right now, we’ll be in the same boat as if we listened to your asinine plan to lynch ZIG.
i understand, but look at how viking's presenting it "im town, next is zig", we get nothing new as far as im concerned.
same thing if i go here.
and as much as potent is garnering suspicion, its also mostly based on speculation.
i just think more is going to come from a whack. clearly I'm the only one, but again, mafia is expecting this, they werent expecting what I'm suggesting and that would force their hand.
I present that way since those are the 2 facts I have left. I have outlined how I feel and how I got there with most of you. Happy to answer any specific questions you have.
If JR was town, Tainted is town, Pablo is town, and ZIG is town; lynching ZIG means the mafia get to whack another townie. That’s potentially 5 dead townies and 1 dead mafia (Jaz) going into the next round.
In other words, we could be putting ourselves in a position starting next day with 5 players, 2 mafia, and 3 town. Meaning if we don’t lynch a mafia next day, we lose.
If we take a stab at an unknown now, we might get a mafia. (Maybe not, but worth a shot). Then ZIG gets whacked. In that scenario, we enter tomorrow with 1 living mafia, and 4 town. That’s a much better scenario. And if we fuck up and lynch a town right now, we’ll be in the same boat as if we listened to your asinine plan to lynch ZIG.
i understand, but look at how viking's presenting it "im town, next is zig", we get nothing new as far as im concerned.
same thing if i go here.
and as much as potent is garnering suspicion, its also mostly based on speculation.
i just think more is going to come from a whack. clearly I'm the only one, but again, mafia is expecting this, they werent expecting what I'm suggesting and that would force their hand.
If you're mafia, and you can't whack given town, you are left with the options of someone who's likely to believe you down the line or someone you can frame. Neither are good options for mafia. As much as we need numbers they need cover.
