Whether it's your first Bonnaroo or you’re a music festival veteran, we welcome you to Inforoo.
Here you'll find info about artists, rumors, camping tips, and the infamous Roo Clues. Have a look around then create an account and join in the fun. See you at Bonnaroo!!
Post by potentpotables on Feb 4, 2019 11:31:53 GMT -5
Dying words from me - I have no idea if Pablo is actually mafia, but I know that I am not, so I think it's likely that the 2-1 split, assuming one, is 2 on me, 1 on Pablo. I think the one on Pablo is Kanye. I probably don't have enough time to go through and find the evidence that formed my suspicion. I do have a town read on Jaz, of course it doesn't mean much other than my hunch.
JR and Danbob are more unknown to me, but I'd lean town right now.
For those voting for me, where I think the numbers likely show 2 mafia members, I'll give my thoughts:
Agarr - the late switch to me obviously is concerning (for me), so I wouldn't rule out him being mafia, and you'd have to consider Pablo's role in that. I don't know if they are actually mafia together or not, the odds say it's not likely, but mafia have made switches in broad daylight before and Agarr's switch would be filed under same.
Pablo - see comments during Agarr, no actual reason to think he's mafia except that he's tied (but maybe on accident, or one-sidedly) to Agarr's switch.
Carini - I don't think he'd post his half-baked (literally) theory on mafia if he was mafia. Not his style.
ZIG/Jortles/JTR are unknowns to me. I think ZIG does a good job hiding as mafia on D1, so I wouldn't have a hunch either way if I was going to live or not. Jortles and JTR I guess are the two most likely candidates to me based on the information we have, but I don't think those feelings are strong.
With my knowledge, I think it's much likelier Pablo is mafia than I am, but I don't have any way of convincing anyone of that. Good luck to the town, hope to celebrate with you at the end. Mafia scum, quack you.
This thread needs feedback from Potent right about now.
Your vote’s on Pablo right now though...
At the time I posted this, Pablo was providing a lot of input. I thought the game would benefit from some Potent input. Not for me to change my vote, but for the benefit of the game.
Dying words from me - I have no idea if Pablo is actually mafia, but I know that I am not, so I think it's likely that the 2-1 split, assuming one, is 2 on me, 1 on Pablo. I think the one on Pablo is Kanye. I probably don't have enough time to go through and find the evidence that formed my suspicion. I do have a town read on Jaz, of course it doesn't mean much other than my hunch.
JR and Danbob are more unknown to me, but I'd lean town right now.
For those voting for me, where I think the numbers likely show 2 mafia members, I'll give my thoughts:
Agarr - the late switch to me obviously is concerning (for me), so I wouldn't rule out him being mafia, and you'd have to consider Pablo's role in that. I don't know if they are actually mafia together or not, the odds say it's not likely, but mafia have made switches in broad daylight before and Agarr's switch would be filed under same.
Pablo - see comments during Agarr, no actual reason to think he's mafia except that he's tied (but maybe on accident, or one-sidedly) to Agarr's switch.
Carini - I don't think he'd post his half-baked (literally) theory on mafia if he was mafia. Not his style.
ZIG/Jortles/JTR are unknowns to me. I think ZIG does a good job hiding as mafia on D1, so I wouldn't have a hunch either way if I was going to live or not. Jortles and JTR I guess are the two most likely candidates to me based on the information we have, but I don't think those feelings are strong.
With my knowledge, I think it's much likelier Pablo is mafia than I am, but I don't have any way of convincing anyone of that. Good luck to the town, hope to celebrate with you at the end. Mafia scum, quack you.
Thanks for the parting words. I find your wording on the part I bolded a little odd though.
You got what you wanted and you are contributing nothing now that it is happening. Thanks.
So yes, we got a runoff that I think could be helpful based on the way things shaped up earlier in the game. It's a toss-up for me at this point between the two of them, and I see no reason to move my vote and don't have a whole lot to add. Potent voting for Pablo earlier to help keep him in the runoff doesn't mean much to me; Potent fully admitted last game that he often (actually I think his word was "always") votes for his fellow Mafia, so that could easily be distancing.
Just to clarify this, I have said I have a *reputation* for "always" voting for my own. I think it's overblown, as in 2018 (since I was mafia every game), I tried to avoid it until I absolutely had to (someone named in a reveal, for example).
The town shouldn't proceed thinking Pablo and I are mafia together based on the fact that I've voted for mafia before, as mafia. That's a surefire ticket to the town losing this game. I'm town, I don't know what Pablo is.
Dying words from me - I have no idea if Pablo is actually mafia, but I know that I am not, so I think it's likely that the 2-1 split, assuming one, is 2 on me, 1 on Pablo. I think the one on Pablo is Kanye. I probably don't have enough time to go through and find the evidence that formed my suspicion. I do have a town read on Jaz, of course it doesn't mean much other than my hunch.
JR and Danbob are more unknown to me, but I'd lean town right now.
For those voting for me, where I think the numbers likely show 2 mafia members, I'll give my thoughts:
Agarr - the late switch to me obviously is concerning (for me), so I wouldn't rule out him being mafia, and you'd have to consider Pablo's role in that. I don't know if they are actually mafia together or not, the odds say it's not likely, but mafia have made switches in broad daylight before and Agarr's switch would be filed under same.
Pablo - see comments during Agarr, no actual reason to think he's mafia except that he's tied (but maybe on accident, or one-sidedly) to Agarr's switch.
Carini - I don't think he'd post his half-baked (literally) theory on mafia if he was mafia. Not his style.
ZIG/Jortles/JTR are unknowns to me. I think ZIG does a good job hiding as mafia on D1, so I wouldn't have a hunch either way if I was going to live or not. Jortles and JTR I guess are the two most likely candidates to me based on the information we have, but I don't think those feelings are strong.
With my knowledge, I think it's much likelier Pablo is mafia than I am, but I don't have any way of convincing anyone of that. Good luck to the town, hope to celebrate with you at the end. Mafia scum, quack you.
Thanks for the parting words. I find your wording on the part I bolded a little odd though.
Fair. I know I'm not mafia, I don't know what Pablo is. I get wordy sometimes, including the post you quoted, and say things I wish I had said differently.
At the time I posted this, Pablo was providing a lot of input. I thought the game would benefit from some Potent input. Not for me to change my vote, but for the benefit of the game.
This strikes me as odd. I read through the parts I missed that night again just now, and most of Pablo's "input" was pushing back against your dead weight comment (which I don't wish to weigh in on and this post should not be construed in any way as a comment on that).
Pablo did ask about Agarr's move, and asked Jaz about the post I just quoted. Pablo has been plenty active for me, and frankly seems to feel the same way I do - it's Day 1, if you're town, what are you supposed to say? Someone has to get the lynching started.
At the time I posted this, Pablo was providing a lot of input. I thought the game would benefit from some Potent input. Not for me to change my vote, but for the benefit of the game.
This strikes me as odd. I read through the parts I missed that night again just now, and most of Pablo's "input" was pushing back against your dead weight comment (which I don't wish to weigh in on and this post should not be construed in any way as a comment on that).
Pablo did ask about Agarr's move, and asked Jaz about the post I just quoted. Pablo has been plenty active for me, and frankly seems to feel the same way I do - it's Day 1, if you're town, what are you supposed to say? Someone has to get the lynching started.
This is fair too. It was late, I was drinking and the game was active.
At the time I posted this, Pablo was providing a lot of input. I thought the game would benefit from some Potent input. Not for me to change my vote, but for the benefit of the game.
My point was, your vote was on Pablo so anything Potent would have said wouldn't have changed your vote. Seems like you were really hoping Potent would provide more details to get someone to “save” Potent. Especially considering, you had held you initial Potent vote then switched to Pablo. Agarr countered your switch and then that’s when you said it...
At the time I posted this, Pablo was providing a lot of input. I thought the game would benefit from some Potent input. Not for me to change my vote, but for the benefit of the game.
My point was, your vote was on Pablo so anything Potent would have said wouldn't have changed your vote. Seems like you were really hoping Potent would provide more details to get someone to “save” Potent. Especially considering, you had held you initial Potent vote then switched to Pablo. Agarr countered your switch and then that’s when you said it...
Grasp at straws if you want. I was just encouraging the other guy in the runoff to get involved.
Alright guys im sorry I've been so absent - just finished my reread. Don't really want to talk during the nightround but have my thoughts to paste for the next day
You got what you wanted and you are contributing nothing now that it is happening. Thanks.
For the most part, people who talk too much early on tend to get votes sooner rather than later (as evidenced by the votes I soon garnered after putting out ideas). This is due to 1) townies being (rightly) paranoid about being manipulated and 2) the more you talk, the more the Mafia get to either paint you as suspicious or latch onto and add fuel to incorrect ideas you might have, further manipulating the townies, and 3) if you do end up digging too much into one of them, they get paranoid about you being Inspector and tend to want votes on you so that you'll get lynched instead of having your posts pored over if they whack you.
Because of all this, I tend to be quiet in the first round and have a bit of a reputation for it, which is why some people have pointed out than my chirpiness this Day is somewhat uncharacteristic of my usual style. Which is true. But because I saw something that I felt was worth pointing out and I have an overarching meta-desire for more engaged gameplay, I was more talkative. But then I got heat for it, so I shut up - which seems to have helped.
So yes, we got a runoff that I think could be helpful based on the way things shaped up earlier in the game. It's a toss-up for me at this point between the two of them, and I see no reason to move my vote and don't have a whole lot to add. Potent voting for Pablo earlier to help keep him in the runoff doesn't mean much to me; Potent fully admitted last game that he often (actually I think his word was "always") votes for his fellow Mafia, so that could easily be distancing.
To be clear, the first two votes you received (ZiG, Potent) to get into the initial runoff had absolutely NOTHING to do with you speaking up more and “putting out ideas”...
I didn't say they did? There was a whole flurry of activity involving me after I started talking more, and I think it's fairly obvious that that's what I'm referring to, and not opening votes.
I didn't say they did? There was a whole flurry of activity involving me after I started talking more, and I think it's fairly obvious that that's what I'm referring to, and not opening votes.
I know I started the whole "jaz is trying to slip out of the runoff" thing, but I find it weird how zig is kinda attacking you for a legitimate post, and at the same time defending carini's ridiculous theory.
I didn't say they did? There was a whole flurry of activity involving me after I started talking more, and I think it's fairly obvious that that's what I'm referring to, and not opening votes.
I know I started the whole "jaz is trying to slip out of the runoff" thing, but I find it weird how zig is kinda attacking you for a legitimate post, and at the same time defending carini's ridiculous theory.
I never defended Carini’s theory. It’s bonkers. I defended Carini because multiple players criticized his theory when it was clear it wasn’t to be taken seriously.
Alright so during my reread I went through each vote switch and did some stats.
Vote switch 1:
Pablo switchs from potent to kanye.
Taken out: no one
Added: no one
Vote switch 2:
Carini switches from pablo to JTR
Taken out: no one
Added: JTR
Vote switch 3:
Potent switches from me to jaz
Taken out: me
Added: jaz
Vote switch 4:
Carini switches from JTR to kanye
Taken out: JTR
Added: kanye
vote switch 5:
kanye switches from me to carini
taken out: no one
added: no one
vote switch 6:
potent switches from jaz to pablo
taken out: jaz
added: pablo
vote switch 7:
I switch from potent to jaz
taken out: potent
added: jaz
vote switch 8:
pablo switches from kanye to jaz
taken out: no one
added: no one
vote switch 9:
kanye switches from jaz to pablo
taken out: no one
added: no one
vote switch 10:
pablo switchs from jaz to kanye
taken out: no one
added: no one
Vote switch 11:
kanye switches from pablo to jaz
taken out: no one
added: no one
For the sake of clarity I put no one for these votes because the runoff remained exactly the same.
vote switch 12:
jortles switches from kanye to potent
taken out: kanye
added: potent
vote switch 13:
kanye switches from jaz to pablo
taken out: jaz
added: pablo
vote switch 14:
agarr switches from pablo to potent
taken out: pablo
added: potent
Here are some stats!
Most switches:
Kanye 4
Pablo 3
Carini 2
Me 1
Agarr 1
Most switches not including kanye's and pablo's switch fest:
Kanye 2
Carini 2
Pablo 1
Me 1
Agarr 1
Most times readded/added:
Pablo 2
Jaz 2
Potent 2
JTR 1
Most times dropped:
Jaz 2
Pablo 1
Kanye 1
Me 1
Potent 1
JTR 1
To me these stats make it seem like pablo, jaz and potent are all town.
Post whack thoughts:
Gonna have to go back and read all of jaz's posts. The biggest thing he said was suggesting pablo/potent, so that put a dent in my conclusions from these stats.
I know I started the whole "jaz is trying to slip out of the runoff" thing, but I find it weird how zig is kinda attacking you for a legitimate post, and at the same time defending carini's ridiculous theory.
I never defended Carini’s theory. It’s bonkers. I defended Carini because multiple players criticized his theory when it was clear it wasn’t to be taken seriously.
Yeah. Wasn't going say anything at night, but I agree that that was weird.
Alright so during my reread I went through each vote switch and did some stats.
Vote switch 1:
Pablo switchs from potent to kanye.
Taken out: no one
Added: no one
Vote switch 2:
Carini switches from pablo to JTR
Taken out: no one
Added: JTR
Vote switch 3:
Potent switches from me to jaz
Taken out: me
Added: jaz
Vote switch 4:
Carini switches from JTR to kanye
Taken out: JTR
Added: kanye
vote switch 5:
kanye switches from me to carini
taken out: no one
added: no one
vote switch 6:
potent switches from jaz to pablo
taken out: jaz
added: pablo
vote switch 7:
I switch from potent to jaz
taken out: potent
added: jaz
vote switch 8:
pablo switches from kanye to jaz
taken out: no one
added: no one
vote switch 9:
kanye switches from jaz to pablo
taken out: no one
added: no one
vote switch 10:
pablo switchs from jaz to kanye
taken out: no one
added: no one
Vote switch 11:
kanye switches from pablo to jaz
taken out: no one
added: no one
For the sake of clarity I put no one for these votes because the runoff remained exactly the same.
vote switch 12:
jortles switches from kanye to potent
taken out: kanye
added: potent
vote switch 13:
kanye switches from jaz to pablo
taken out: jaz
added: pablo
vote switch 14.5:
agarr switches from pablo to potent
taken out: pablo
added: potent
Here are some stats!
Most switches:
Kanye 4
Pablo 3
Carini 2
Me 1
Agarr 1
JR 1
Most switches not including kanye's and pablo's switch fest:
Kanye 2
Carini 2
Pablo 1
Me 1
Agarr 1
JR 1
Most times readded/added:
Pablo 2
Jaz 2
Potent 3
JTR 1
Most times dropped:
Jaz 2
Pablo 1
Kanye 1
Me 1
Potent 2
JTR 1
To me these stats make it seem like pablo, jaz and potent are all town.
Post whack thoughts:
Gonna have to go back and read all of jaz's posts. The biggest thing he said was suggesting pablo/potent, so that put a dent in my conclusions from these stats.
Just realized this is missing JRs switch from potent to pablo. The stats section is updated in the quote.
Jaz wasn’t quite his usual day 1 self. He usually doesn’t say much on day 1. I suspect they thought he was inspector. I suspected it a little as well. I hope we were all wrong.
Watching TV right now. I’ll do a reread in the morning.
